Tage Thompson or Mitch Marner

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Sure, but even if you extend the games until the end of the season, Marner Jan 15 onwards had 76 pts in 46 games, first in the league in total points and 5v5 points, and also played less games than all the other top guys except Matthews. First is first, to do that for more than half a season in the McDavid era is no small feat. And again, his defensive impact cannot be discounted, he's routinely the team's best or second best defensive forward and spends 2+ min/game on the PK as well.

As good as Tage is, he has some of the worst defensive numbers on Buffalo. He's still a net positive because of how good he's been offensively, but that strikes me as someone who is cheating defense to create more offense. Having an xGA/60 of 3+ is pretty damn bad.

Like I said he was on a great run, but piling up points alongside the Hart trophy winner (who paced for 72 goals during that span) is less impressive than doing so while centering Jeff Skinner. Nothing against Skinner but he's clearly not Auston Matthews. Layer in the significant goal scoring difference and I think it's pretty clearly Tage.

The defensive comparison doesn't hold water considering their positions require substantially different defensive responsibilities (or at the very least, it's offset by the fact that Thompson plays the more important position).

Lastly, during that 35 game peak for Marner, he recorded a point on 34% of Toronto's goals. In his last 25 games, Thompson has a point on 50% of Buffalo's. That's a huge difference.

 

[1specter]

Like I said he was on a great run, but piling up points alongside the Hart trophy winner (who paced for 72 goals during that span) is less impressive than doing so while centering Jeff Skinner. Nothing against Skinner but he's clearly not Auston Matthews. Layer in the significant goal scoring difference and I think it's pretty clearly Tage.

I get your point about linemates, but at the same time it's not like Marner is some passenger who just handed the puck to Matthews and Matthews just sniped it every time for an easy assist to Marner. Marner is the best playmaker on the team and arguably play driver, he was a big factor in Matthews' record setting year. Matthews probably doesn't do that without him. And this season Marner is still leading the team in points despite playing primarily with Tavares instead.

The defensive comparison doesn't hold water considering their positions require substantially different defensive responsibilities (or at the very least, it's offset by the fact that Thompson plays the more important position).

I don't think this is fair when Tage is near the bottom of the Sabres in shot attempts, chances and expected goals against and Marner is near the top in all of those categories. They both play top matchups so it's not like there is a disparity there either. I'm not giving Tage a big pass here just because he is a C.

Lastly, during that 35 game peak for Marner, he recorded a point on 34% of Toronto's goals. In his last 25 games, Thompson has a point on 50% of Buffalo's. That's a huge difference.

Impressive no doubt, but that also speaks to the difference in teams. Buffalo rides Tage harder because they have to, whereas the Leafs have to balance Marner's responsibilities and ice time with other top end players. I don't think Marner's efforts should get discredited simply because he plays for a top team, especially when he is a top play driver for that team...often times big dogs from crappier teams move to better teams and their numbers don't actually explode or improve much because they become secondary to other better players or they have to spread minutes around more.

I'm not saying Tage can't surpass Marner, but I think I'd need more than a 24 game stretch to be truly convinced personally.

 

[Aladyyn]

I get your point about linemates, but at the same time it's not like Marner is some passenger who just handed the puck to Matthews and Matthews just sniped it every time for an easy assist to Marner. Marner is the best playmaker on the team and arguably play driver, he was a big factor in Matthews' record setting year. Matthews probably doesn't do that without him. And this season Marner is still leading the team in points despite playing primarily with Tavares instead.

I don't think this is fair when Tage is near the bottom of the Sabres in shot attempts, chances and expected goals against and Marner is near the top in all of those categories. They both play top matchups so it's not like there is a disparity there either. I'm not giving Tage a big pass here just because he is a C.

Impressive no doubt, but that also speaks to the difference in teams. Buffalo rides Tage harder because they have to, whereas the Leafs have to balance Marner's responsibilities and ice time with other top end players. I don't think Marner's efforts should get discredited simply because he plays for a top team, especially when he is a top play driver for that team...often times big dogs from crappier teams move to better teams and their numbers don't actually explode or improve much because they become secondary to other better players or they have to spread minutes around more.

I'm not saying Tage can't surpass Marner, but I think I'd need more than a 24 game stretch to be truly convinced personally.

I don't see how that possible, seeing how Tage plays 2 minutes less per game than Marner...

 

[1specter]

Tage's defensive play isn't amazing, but it's also being undersold. The team as a whole plays with less defensive structure than Toronto and with how they've been playing thus far with much worse goaltending. Even with worse goaltending Tage's numbers aren't that far off from Marner's.

Additionally Tage's CF% Rel is 2nd on the team at 5v5, which tells me as a percentage they are not giving up more chances with Tage on the ice. In total perhaps because he logs more minutes, but by that same token so does Marner.

Tage's GA/60 stats

5v5 - 3.2 (5 forwards worse without counting Sheahan because he only played 2 games)
PK - 6.7 (8 forwards worse) Tage get's a little over a minute a game on the PK

Marner's GA/60 stats

5v5 - 2.7 (2 forwards worse on the team)
PK - 7.9 (2 forwards worse on the team) He gets a bit over 2 minutes a game on the PK

Tage's GF/60

5v5 - 4.8 (2nd among Sabres forwards)
PP - 14.8 (1st among Sabres forwards)

Marner's GF/60

5v5 - 3.0 (5th among Toronto forwards)
PP - 11.2 (2nd among Toronto forwards)

Now I'm not saying Tage has as good of a track record as Marner, or that he is as good defensively. What I will say however is that Tage right now offensively is playing better than Marner currently, and probably as well as Marner ever has. Going forward If he continues to play this well the gap between them is not as big as it's being made out to be. And just to point out I voted for Marner when this poll was made.

Couple things here:

1. Using GF/60 and GA/60 rates isn't actually a great determinant of underlying play. It's basically a glorified +/-, which we know is heavily impacted by things like sv%, shooting luck/shooting %, linemates and is volatile in general. Also, you'll notice the players with the highest GA/60 are often the team's most used d-men, as they simply play more by virtue of there being less D than forwards available and face top matchups, along with top six players as they get line matched against teams' other top players who are the biggest scoring threats. The data sample of goals is also much smaller than shots / shot attempts and scoring chances so there is a lot more noise.

Using shot attempts and scoring chances against is a more reliable marker generally speaking. In those, Marner has consistently ranked near the best for the Leafs for multiple seasons now.

2. Tage has a high CF% rel because his offensive CF impact is among the best, so overall he is still a net positive. However, when you look at just CA rel, Thompson is near the bottom, ahead of only Samuelsson, Skinner and Asplund.

In a nutshell, Tage is a high event player and there's a lot going on both ends of the ice when he's playing. However, he is so dominant offensively right now that it's outweighing his defensive shortcomings. I don't disagree that his level right now matches or even tops Marner's best, but Marner has had multiple years of consistent elite play which tips the scale for me. Will it stay that way? Time will tell. For the record, I don't think Marner is leaps and bounds better than Tage or anything like that, but a long track record will generally get the benefit of the doubt from me. You guys have a special player on your hands regardless.

 

[Asymmetric Solution]

Sure, but even if you extend the games until the end of the season, Marner Jan 15 onwards had 76 pts in 46 games, first in the league in total points and 5v5 points, and also played less games than all the other top guys except Matthews. First is first, to do that for more than half a season in the McDavid era is no small feat. And again, his defensive impact cannot be discounted, he's routinely the team's best or second best defensive forward and spends 2+ min/game on the PK as well.

As good as Tage is, he has some of the worst defensive numbers on Buffalo. He's still a net positive because of how good he's been offensively, but that strikes me as someone who is cheating defense to create more offense. Having an xGA/60 of 3+ is pretty damn bad.

Tage also plays on Buffalo’s PK unit

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I get your point about linemates, but at the same time it's not like Marner is some passenger who just handed the puck to Matthews and Matthews just sniped it every time for an easy assist to Marner. Marner is the best playmaker on the team and arguably play driver, he was a big factor in Matthews' record setting year. Matthews probably doesn't do that without him. And this season Marner is still leading the team in points despite playing primarily with Tavares instead.

I never said Marner was a passenger. But he's got a way better setup to produce offense. That much is undeniable. He's a huge part of Matthews' success but its notable that he is the 2nd best player on his own line.

I don't think this is fair when Tage is near the bottom of the Sabres in shot attempts, chances and expected goals against and Marner is near the top in all of those categories. They both play top matchups so it's not like there is a disparity there either. I'm not giving Tage a big pass here just because he is a C.

Wingers have very little impact in those defensive metrics, so it's fairly hard to attribute any success there to Marner. Like I said, I'll take the defensively average center over great defensive winger.

Impressive no doubt, but that also speaks to the difference in teams. Buffalo rides Tage harder because they have to, whereas the Leafs have to balance Marner's responsibilities and ice time with other top end players. I don't think Marner's efforts should get discredited simply because he plays for a top team, especially when he is a top play driver for that team...often times big dogs from crappier teams move to better teams and their numbers don't actually explode or improve much because they become secondary to other better players or they have to spread minutes around more.

I'm not saying Tage can't surpass Marner, but I think I'd need more than a 24 game stretch to be truly convinced personally.

Marner gets 2 minutes more ice time than Thompson....

 

[beowulf]

Two totally different players. This is a hard one, the same age but one has been successful in the NHL for 460 games now and has 493 career points. The other has size for sure and is surprising me but I guess I need to see if he can keep this up for more than a year in Thompson

 

[Incognito]

This is the classic HFBoards “what have you done for me lately” mentality at work here. Thompson shouldn’t have a single vote in this poll, simply because he hasn’t been performing at his current level of play nearly long enough to be considered better than Marner. If he maintains it over the long term, then there’s definitely a valid discussion to be had. But as of right now, the question is very premature.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

who's next vs Tage The Almighty Thompson? Leafs are running out of elite stars to start threads about

 

[DatDude44]

I don't think either team would trade one for the other..... I think moving fwd I would prefer tage thompson not only based on the position he plays and the goal scoring prowess but the contract as well. That and I don't think he lacks much on the defensive side of the puck as well.

Marner easily is above tage in terms of if both guys careers ended right now he'd be regarded as the better and more accomplished player for sure.

If i'm starting a franchise right now....i'm taking tage to lead it

 

[Dubi Doo]

This is the classic HFBoards “what have you done for me lately” mentality at work here. Thompson shouldn’t have a single vote in this poll, simply because he hasn’t been performing at his current level of play nearly long enough to be considered better than Marner. If he maintains it over the long term, then there’s definitely a valid discussion to be had. But as of right now, the question is very premature.

If he maintains it- it's not a discussion- you take the elite C over an elite winger every day of the week.

Thompson having to prove it longer is a legit argument, but if he stays at his current pace- there are very few forwards you take before him.

 

[Beerz]

who's next vs Tage The Almighty Thompson? Leafs are running out of elite stars to start threads about

Matthew Knies

 

[Incognito]

If he maintains it- it's not a discussion- you take the elite C over an elite winger every day of the week.

Thompson having to prove it longer is a legit argument, but if he stays at his current pace- there are very few forwards you take before him.

For sure. If he can keep this up, I would pick Thompson as well without hesitation. The key word in all of this is “if”. Time will tell.