Speculation: Summer 2018 off season roster discussion

[The Nemesis]

People loved Petrecki. I don’t think there were strong reactions either way for Wishart or Kasparov’s. Although, back then, the Sharks’s drafting team had earned a ton of rope.

Kaspar wasn't super strong reaction, but Wishart got a lot of general "they made the right pick" type praise.

 

[Friday]

I don’t think the fanbase would be able to handle a tank.

Why I think they "retool on the fly" and will end up being "competitive" forever haha. But you know, 2nd round exits forever

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I don’t think the fanbase would be able to handle a tank.

A lot of people say this, but do you ever think that the 2nd round exits are getting a bit stale as well? Fan support has died down greatly from the Heatley days.

If we went full tank in 2014 and traded Thornton, Marleau, Burns, Braun, Vlasic, and Pavelski, we would be in a great position right now.

We would almost certainly have acquired at least one first line/first pair caliber player from the trades and probably more like two or three, along with at least one or two young 2nd line/2nd pair caliber players.

In 2015, a #5 pick could have got us Hanifin, Provorov, Werenski, or Rantanen. That’s assuming we don’t win the lottery and get McDavid.
In 2016, a #5 pick could have got us Tkachuk, Keller, Sergachev, or Jost.
In 2017, a #5 pick could have got us Petterson, Glass, Andersson, or Mittelstadt.

Any combination of 3 of those could end up being a nice core to build around. There’s no established #1C yet but Werenski, Tkachuk, and Pettersson would be a nice group. We also could have just picked Barzal in 2015, lol. I would rather have those three players than have the seasons we did in 2015, 2016, and 2017.

In addition, chances are that we would get closer to #1-3 in at least one of those years, and get a piece like Matthews, Laine, Hischier, McDavid, or Eichel. On top of that, by trading Burns, Vlasic, Marleau, Thornton, and Pavelski, you could probably end up acquiring another top-5 pick, or another star. The Oilers would have probably traded one of Hall or Draisaitl for one of Burns or Vlasic as well.

We would have probably made a few trades to try to make the playoffs this year and we would have a ton of cap space to go after Tavares and a ton of assets to trade for somebody like Erik Karlsson or Hamilton. The rebuild would already be over and we would be a possible contender going into next year.

 

[Juxtaposer]

People liked the Goldobin pick, sure, and honestly who drafted after him is doing significantly better. But I know I wasn’t the only one pissed when we passed on Fabbri to move down. That was the blunder, not taking Goldobin from what was remaining at 28.

 

[rangerssharks414]

A lot of people say this, but do you ever think that the 2nd round exits are getting a bit stale as well? Fan support has died down greatly from the Heatley days.

If we went full tank in 2014 and traded Thornton, Marleau, Burns, Braun, Vlasic, and Pavelski, we would be in a great position right now.

We would almost certainly have acquired at least one first line/first pair caliber player from the trades and probably more like two or three, along with at least one or two young 2nd line/2nd pair caliber players.

In 2015, a #5 pick could have got us Hanifin, Provorov, Werenski, or Rantanen. That’s assuming we don’t win the lottery and get McDavid.
In 2016, a #5 pick could have got us Tkachuk, Keller, Sergachev, or Jost.
In 2017, a #5 pick could have got us Petterson, Glass, Andersson, or Mittelstadt.

Any combination of 3 of those could end up being a nice core to build around. There’s no established #1C yet but Werenski, Tkachuk, and Pettersson would be a nice group. We also could have just picked Barzal in 2015, lol. I would rather have those three players than have the seasons we did in 2015, 2016, and 2017.

In addition, chances are that we would get closer to #1-3 in at least one of those years, and get a piece like Matthews, Laine, Hischier, McDavid, or Eichel. On top of that, by trading Burns, Vlasic, Marleau, Thornton, and Pavelski, you could probably end up acquiring another top-5 pick, or another star. The Oilers would have probably traded one of Hall or Draisaitl for one of Burns or Vlasic as well.

We would have probably made a few trades to try to make the playoffs this year and we would have a ton of cap space to go after Tavares and a ton of assets to trade for somebody like Erik Karlsson or Hamilton. The rebuild would already be over and we would be a possible contender going into next year.

The playoff exits are disappointing for sure. I was talking about the casual fan who probably only cares when the team is doing somewhat well. I don’t think the attendance would drop to Arizona or Florida levels, but they’d probably be in the bottom 10 or so.

The fan support is probably dropping because of the Warriors and the Giants. The 49ers getting better will hurt the Sharks as well.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

The playoff exits are disappointing for sure. I was talking about the casual fan who probably only cares when the team is doing somewhat well. I don’t think the attendance would drop to Arizona or Florida levels, but they’d probably be in the bottom 10 or so.

The fan support is probably dropping because of the Warriors and the Giants. The 49ers getting better will hurt the Sharks as well.

My point is that the fan support is already hurting and as long as they keep failing to win the Stanley Cup, it’s only going to get worse. People are bored of the 2nd round exits. A 3-year rebuild isn’t going to get us relocated if it’s done right.

 

[Friday]

My point is that the fan support is already hurting and as long as they keep failing to win the Stanley Cup, it’s only going to get worse. People are bored of the 2nd round exits. A 3-year rebuild isn’t going to get us relocated if it’s done right.

And if it does I live close ish to Seattle haha

 

[Maladroit]

People liked the Goldobin pick, sure, and honestly who drafted after him is doing significantly better. But I know I wasn’t the only one pissed when we passed on Fabbri to move down. That was the blunder, not taking Goldobin from what was remaining at 28.

Exactly. If you want to get on the Sharks about the 2014 draft it should be regarding the inexplicable decision to trade down when Robby Fabbri had fallen to us at #20. We should have Barzal and Fabbri as our 1C and 2C of the future right now.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Exactly. If you want to get on the Sharks about the 2014 draft it should be regarding the inexplicable decision to trade down when Robby Fabbri had fallen to us at #20. We should have Barzal and Fabbri as our 1C and 2C of the future right now.

The Barzal thing is going to haunt us for years. I love me some Timo, but Barzal just might end up being that franchise #1C that can carry you to a Cup.

 

[rangerssharks414]

My point is that the fan support is already hurting and as long as they keep failing to win the Stanley Cup, it’s only going to get worse. People are bored of the 2nd round exits. A 3-year rebuild isn’t going to get us relocated if it’s done right.

Fair enough.

 

[Juxtaposer]

The thing is, a lot of the casual fan base isn’t nearly as Cup-obsessed as most of us die-hards on HF. As long as we make the second round every year, most of the fan base will stick around and buy tickets. We lost a ton of casual fans simply from one year that resulted in 9th overall and even a Cup final appearance wasn’t enough to bring them back. There is no way casual fans would surivive a re-build.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I don’t think the fanbase would be able to handle a tank.

I don't think the fan base should be a factor in that decision. The team shouldn't base its personnel decisions on the whims of the fans. If it makes the most sense to rebuild then rebuild. Right now, this team is too good with the youthful assets they have to really tank. They'd be good enough to compete for a playoff spot and probably fall short. So until that changes I think trying to fill the gaps with the best talent available to them is the best option. For the purposes of this discussion, I think most agree with that and just differ on where those gaps are right now. I don't think Kane fills a gap. If we re-sign Kane, we're trading a winger this off-season. Very likely not Pavelski or Hertl/Couture or Meier but we're trading someone because that's the only way it'll fit.

 

[OrrNumber4]

The thing is, a lot of the casual fan base isn’t nearly as Cup-obsessed as most of us die-hards on HF. As long as we make the second round every year, most of the fan base will stick around and buy tickets. We lost a ton of casual fans simply from one year that resulted in 9th overall and even a Cup final appearance wasn’t enough to bring them back. There is no way casual fans would surivive a re-build.

1) If this is really the case to an extreme degree, then San Jose doesn’t deserve a hockey team.

2) Doesn’t this make you very sympathetic to DW? Because analyzed from this lens, his moves make a ton more sense.

 

[rangerssharks414]

I don't think the fan base should be a factor in that decision. The team shouldn't base its personnel decisions on the whims of the fans. If it makes the most sense to rebuild then rebuild. Right now, this team is too good with the youthful assets they have to really tank. They'd be good enough to compete for a playoff spot and probably fall short. So until that changes I think trying to fill the gaps with the best talent available to them is the best option. For the purposes of this discussion, I think most agree with that and just differ on where those gaps are right now. I don't think Kane fills a gap. If we re-sign Kane, we're trading a winger this off-season. Very likely not Pavelski or Hertl/Couture or Meier but we're trading someone because that's the only way it'll fit.

The thing with that is would they get the green light from the ownership to rebuild? I think losing the fanbase would definitely factor into that decision. Does it make sense from a hockey standpoint? Probably not. But from a financial standpoint, I'm not sure if the ownership would want to do that.

 

[hohosaregood]

1) If this is really the case to an extreme degree, then San Jose doesn’t deserve a hockey team.

2) Doesn’t this make you very sympathetic to DW? Because analyzed from this lens, his moves make a ton more sense.

We never deserved a hockey team and the Sharks don't deserve the region. They've been here 26 years and they haven't done anything for youth hockey in the Bay Area. Even Arizona born kids are making the NHL now. The best we've had is Matt Tennyson. It's pathetic.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The thing with that is would they get the green light from the ownership to rebuild? I think losing the fanbase would definitely factor into that decision. Does it make sense from a hockey standpoint? Probably not. But from a financial standpoint, I'm not sure if the ownership would want to do that.

I think Hasso is smart enough even with an admitted limited grasp on the hockey operations that sometimes you don't have a choice but to scrap it and rebuild. That's just a business decision that occurs in general sometimes. I don't think you can account for the fans in such a decision simply because they will return if it's done right. The other thing is perpetual playoff appearances without championships will slowly erode the fan base as well so that's also got to be taken into account. From a financial standpoint, you have to at certain points be willing to eat costs to try and create a better product.

I don't think that time is now but if they whiff on top centers and Jumbo at some point retires without a suitable replacement, very soon after that is when it will happen and there is no avoiding it. This is especially due to who is signed, for how long, and how old they are. Burns is going to decline like Boyle did at some point and it probably happens at a similar age or maybe soon after Thornton leaves. At that point, you're down a top center and a top defenseman. Results won't hold up without suitable replacements that are currently not within the organization.

 

[DeadGhost]

Assuming Tavares is out of the mix it's likely that Kane and Thornton will be the Sharks "big" offseason signings. I would like to see the following though too:

Carter Rowney:
Missed about a month at the end of the year but looked like a mainstay on the Penguins 4th line before the injury - fans loved him. Super high energy player that I think would complement Goodrow and Sorensen nicely on the 4th line. If Vegas' relentless forecheck is the style to emulate this offseason, Rowney is a great fit for depth/4th line.

Greg Pateryn:
Pure speculation but based on the treatment he's received it wouldn't surprise me if Heed were to go back to Sweden, not finishing his contract. Signing Greg Pateryn would be a needed depth move. He could compete with Demelo for 3rd pairing minutes and offers sandpaper if needed. There's still some upside there as last season was really his coming out party. I could see him being a late-blooming, shut-down defenseman along the lines of Rob Scuderi.

I thought a lot about bringing in Kempny to pair with Burns which is a very sold pairing. He's essentially allowed John Carlson to have the Norris caliber season that he had this year. However, the Burns-Ryan pairing is solid enough. And if you remove Ryan from it he doesn't really fit elsewhere from what we can tell.

Pretty boring signings but I think they're both solid pieces to replenish the depth.

 

[tiburon12]

2) Doesn’t this make you very sympathetic to DW? Because analyzed from this lens, his moves make a ton more sense.

I've been harping on this for weeks. the NHL is a business. If the owner mandates that DW field a competitive team that has a shot at the cup each year, then that's what DW has to do. The sharks have been a winning team and attendance is dipping. If you were an owner, would you be comfortable doing a rebuild in these circumstances? I wouldn't. I'd want to win and make money

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

The thing is, a lot of the casual fan base isn’t nearly as Cup-obsessed as most of us die-hards on HF. As long as we make the second round every year, most of the fan base will stick around and buy tickets. We lost a ton of casual fans simply from one year that resulted in 9th overall and even a Cup final appearance wasn’t enough to bring them back. There is no way casual fans would surivive a re-build.

I don’t agree with this. I think what we’ve done over the last few years is slowly eroding the fan base. If we re-build and have a contender within 3 years, I don’t think it’ll hurt that bad.

 

[Maladroit]

I think Hasso is smart enough even with an admitted limited grasp on the hockey operations that sometimes you don't have a choice but to scrap it and rebuild. That's just a business decision that occurs in general sometimes. I don't think you can account for the fans in such a decision simply because they will return if it's done right. The other thing is perpetual playoff appearances without championships will slowly erode the fan base as well so that's also got to be taken into account. From a financial standpoint, you have to at certain points be willing to eat costs to try and create a better product.

I don't think that time is now but if they whiff on top centers and Jumbo at some point retires without a suitable replacement, very soon after that is when it will happen and there is no avoiding it. This is especially due to who is signed, for how long, and how old they are. Burns is going to decline like Boyle did at some point and it probably happens at a similar age or maybe soon after Thornton leaves. At that point, you're down a top center and a top defenseman. Results won't hold up without suitable replacements that are currently not within the organization.

Great post. I think the natural erosion of a fanbase unsatisfied with a status quo of winning a playoff round or two but nothing more each year is what we saw in 2015, combined with the Sharks' poor performance that season, the lingering bitter taste from the reverse sweep and the Warriors becoming the best team in the NBA. The Sharks need new marketable stars in order to start filling the building again and, I know I should stop beating this dead horse, but Mat Barzal really could have and should have been one of those stars. Oh well.

 

[Sysreq]

I don’t agree with this. I think what we’ve done over the last few years is slowly eroding the fan base. If we re-build and have a contender within 3 years, I don’t think it’ll hurt that bad.

I actually think a full rebuild could have a net positive effect on sales. You gotta give us something to be excited about as fans. No one is buying Thornton, Couture or Pavelski jerseys anymore. Even Burns has just about run his course.

And as much as I love Hertl and Timo, they just aren’t in the same league as the Jack Eichels or Rasmus Dahlins. Getting a few legitimate young future superstars would bring a level of excitement I don’t think we have seen in a little while now.

 

[Gecklund]

Assuming Tavares is out of the mix it's likely that Kane and Thornton will be the Sharks "big" offseason signings. I would like to see the following though too:

Carter Rowney:
Missed about a month at the end of the year but looked like a mainstay on the Penguins 4th line before the injury - fans loved him. Super high energy player that I think would complement Goodrow and Sorensen nicely on the 4th line. If Vegas' relentless forecheck is the style to emulate this offseason, Rowney is a great fit for depth/4th line.

Greg Pateryn:
Pure speculation but based on the treatment he's received it wouldn't surprise me if Heed were to go back to Sweden, not finishing his contract. Signing Greg Pateryn would be a needed depth move. He could compete with Demelo for 3rd pairing minutes and offers sandpaper if needed. There's still some upside there as last season was really his coming out party. I could see him being a late-blooming, shut-down defenseman along the lines of Rob Scuderi.

I thought a lot about bringing in Kempny to pair with Burns which is a very sold pairing. He's essentially allowed John Carlson to have the Norris caliber season that he had this year. However, the Burns-Ryan pairing is solid enough. And if you remove Ryan from it he doesn't really fit elsewhere from what we can tell.

Pretty boring signings but I think they're both solid pieces to replenish the depth.

Rowney isn’t better than any of our 4th line

Pateryn is trash

Side note Kempney didn’t allow Carlson to have a Norris year considering Carlson played at least half the year without him.

 

[tiburon12]

I don’t agree with this. I think what we’ve done over the last few years is slowly eroding the fan base. If we re-build and have a contender within 3 years, I don’t think it’ll hurt that bad.

I think your 3-year estimation is unrealistically optimistic. Teams like EDM, BUF, CAR, VAN, FLA have been rebuilding for years and have no consistency to show for it. DET is entering year 3 of their rebuild and will likely be bad again. COL is only good (and maybe this year was just stars aligning) now, but wasnt good for 8 years apart from that crazy year they won the division. TOR sucked for years and years and only got good with a number 1 pick.

If i'm an owner, i'm looking at the rest of the league and noting that most rebuilds fail. Teams like Boston, Tampa, Winnipeg all kept their core and built from good drafting. The last thing i would want to do as a business owner with a successful team (based on winning games and competing in the playoffs) is call for a rebuild prematurely and risk ending up like Arizona

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I've been harping on this for weeks. the NHL is a business. If the owner mandates that DW field a competitive team that has a shot at the cup each year, then that's what DW has to do. The sharks have been a winning team and attendance is dipping. If you were an owner, would you be comfortable doing a rebuild in these circumstances? I wouldn't. I'd want to win and make money

Yeah and that business model more often than not is a slow failure instead of a quick one. A franchise like the Sharks, as the dipping attendance with winning shows, still has to develop trust and increase the value of its brand. The only way for them to do that at this point is to win the Stanley Cup. If they continue to just fill the gaps with little odds at winning it all, the product becomes stale and less people pay to see it. They've reached that point when it comes to their playoff appearances and their runs. But if they don't deliver a championship, that attendance will only continue to dwindle. In most instances, a rebuild is an inevitability because you need that special talent to get you that Cup. This team can't have its cake and eat it too because they aren't good enough talent-wise and they've burned their fans too many times to continue to show up to playoff disappointments.

 

[one2gamble]

Exactly. If you want to get on the Sharks about the 2014 draft it should be regarding the inexplicable decision to trade down when Robby Fabbri had fallen to us at #20. We should have Barzal and Fabbri as our 1C and 2C of the future right now.

You ruined my day