He'll sign for 2-2.5M less AAV than market value because Florida. Our cup window only stays open if his salary goes down as he moves into a different role with the team, PP/FO specialist and not a 1st line forward. Also remember, he doesn't play center anymore like he did when he signed last time. His defensive play has slid significantly and he randomly falls down more than Killorn.
I think 5.5M AAV, give or take a bit, on a 4-5 year term, with performance bonuses etc. to offset the salary would be fair. He'll be 37-38 at the end of the deal and can retire or sign one off deals until he's ready. It's hard to say though, as there's lots of other players contracts that come into the equation, and if Hagel continues to improve, he'll command a large contract.
It's what must be done for us to pay the up and coming players and bring in other pieces to remain competitive.
On the other hand, I fully understand what may be Stamkos' negotiating position. He has led the team to arguably dynasty status, a perennial contender, with back to back cups and 4 total cup appearances. He's also a point per game player, who's playmaking has improved. He has impeccable character on and off the ice. Additionally this may be Daddy's last chance at a big pay day for his young family. While it's not like he's broke by any stretch, his contracts are the source of his families future generational wealth.
It's not hard to imagine that teams wouldn't line up to sign Stamkos...but. Does he want to move for a slightly larger salary to bring leadership and help change the culture at a stumbling franchise, that's how he wants to end his career? A contender probably isn't going to have the cap space to sign Stamkos to a large contract that outweighs what we're offering plus everything he's built in Tampa, and it's not like he needs to go cup hunting because we aren't a contender.
In the end, I don't think he'll be going anywhere. I just hope JBB doesn't pull a JBB and make it rain. He should be paid based on what he will give us over the course of the contract, not what he gave us before.