Speculation: Stammergeddon 3.0

What do you think Stamkos does next year?

  • Other (explain)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    72

garmonbozia

Registered User
Jan 10, 2006
907
91
I love the optimism of the poll results! Disagree that it aligns with realities of the business for both the team and Stamkos himself, but would love to see him continue to lead the team into his twilight years. It will come with a cost greater than the AAV on his contract alone though, as would him leaving.

Ignoring Stamkos, Hedman, and Hagel for a minute, our post cup core revolves around Kucherov's contract which has 4 years left. That's how much longer we can realistically keep the window open. Point, Cirelli, Sergachev, Cernak, Vasilevski and Kucherov are the core to build around in this regard. The extensions they've all signed say as much. Their play on the ice and roles on this team back that up.

Even in the ideal world that Stamkos, Hagel, and Hedman all resign for 6 million each there will be no flexibilty for the next three years while this perfect situation comes to pass. Minor side grades that hopefully allow the team to tread water while we watch the core wither over time and the window close hard. Hagel will be extended and deservedly so. His youth added to the core is important long term. Stamkos or Hedman? It probably comes down to a choice of which aging elder statesman JBB most wants to keep (if either). Both would be taking a discount if they resigned at their current cap hits (or less) compared to what they could get on the open market. We can't afford that without moving someone else out of the aforementioned core. If I had to choose I would keep Hedman over Stamkos only because I think his size and skills will be tougher to replace even as they decline. Hedman will have more value as a 2nd or even 3rd pairing guy than Stamkos as a middle six wing.

It would hurt to lose Stamkos (or Hedman) emotionally. It wouldn't seem righteous or fair reward for the loyal career long service they have provided the team thus far. But it is a business, and the business rarely cares about the feelings. It's unfair and disrespectful to expect the big discounts they'll be offered to remain. It's too harmful to the team and it's future cup chances to pay fair market value to retain them both.


Stammergeddon is indeed coming and I, for once, am actually afraid.
 

Zwui21

Registered User
Aug 31, 2019
2,246
2,829

Like, come on, that man is worth 7m.
No IMO, not for a team like us that is so cap strapped and looking for more success.
His 5v5 play has been in decline for the past few years (he doesn't even seem to be a positive impact 5v5 when he's playing with Kuch anymore) and his playoff performances aren't up to what they should. Hell, even his shot on the PP have lost quality.
It's also unlucky for Stammer that he has to play on the wing, when in the C position he's able to have a more positive impact.

As I said prior to this post, I love Stammer. But I see his flaws and I care more about the team and the longevity of our window than the single player. Re-signing aging stars to stupid contracts is what reduced the Hawks to misery after their glory days (of course now they get Bedard, but that isn't the point lol)
 
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DFC

Registered User
Sep 26, 2013
47,215
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Nah, not even short-term at 7-8 if it means losing Hagel or any of the other younger guys, but especially Hagel.
Isnt Hagel up this year? I don't think the Stamkos deal will have any bearing on it.
 

JTBF81

Registered User
Dec 6, 2018
4,038
2,132
Tampa, FL.
Isnt Hagel up this year? I don't think the Stamkos deal will have any bearing on it.
Hagel and Stamkos are up at the same time. I wouldn't be surprised if JBB extends Hagel this Summer, which would make it pretty clear on how much they have for Stamkos(depending on the exact cap increase for '24-'25). If Hagel gets re-upped for 6-6.5, and the cap goes up 3 million, there will be at best 6 and change for Stamkos. If he's up to do say a 4 year, 25 million aav, great, if not, I'm good letting him cash in elsewhere.
 
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DFC

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Sep 26, 2013
47,215
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I've been pretty hard on Stamkos at times, but make no mistake, he will be hard to replace.

I dont see us letting him go, both because he's likely the best option at the money we offer, for at least the rest of the window, and because he's one of those rare guys who tend to end up playing their whole career for one club.
 

JTBF81

Registered User
Dec 6, 2018
4,038
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Tampa, FL.
No real chance he walks, I think, it sends a bad message as an org.
I hope not, and as long as he takes in the 5-6 aav range, great, let him finish his career as a Bolt. Not a chance he should get 7 or 8, as that means they lose other younger guys that will be more valuable for longer.
 

NatoGhost

Registered User
Jun 27, 2013
683
362
I don't see a discount contract, no one has taken one under JBB and another PPG regular season gives Stamkos' agent plenty of leverage for at least the same dollar amount.

Ovechkin did the same thing and his play wasn't declining 5 more years at his current caphit, Malkin took a discount but he was injury riddled and declined in production the years leading up to his extension. Stamkos will likely get an Ovechkin type contract barring major injury this season. 5 x 8.5M and JBB is going to give it to him even though this team could use that caphit to fill bigger holes.

6M is out to lunch.
We better not.
 

LTIR Trickery

Plz stop pucks
Jun 27, 2007
23,887
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Ya'll are f***in' crazy if you think he isn't a 7m/year player right now.

I also don't know who you think you'd get to replace him that will have his production at 7. What do you think you're going to do, guido it with a couple 3m guys and hope they produce?
 

These Are The Days

Oh no! We suck again!!
May 17, 2014
34,540
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Tampa Bay
We've had to lose guys like Gourde, Goodrow, Coleman, Palat and McDonagh because it was time for other guys to get their payday or it just got too expensive otherwise to keep them and business was business and all things were ended professionally. I think what we're going to see is our vets take less than any of us can possibly imagine for the sake of staying and that becomes the conclusion of "the way"

1. Sign your entry deal
2. Take a scheduled loss in your first extension
3. Next extension is dolla dolla bill$ y'all cuz JFBB don't care, he just be handin BiG d3ALz to errrbuddy
4. Favorable retirement contract

I absolutely believe this was going to start with Palat and he was going to sign for like $3 million AAV but JFBB was not keen on the term Palat wanted. It sounds like it just didn't work out and (once again) business was business


I think Killorn is going to surprise us all and so will Stamkos. They seem really serious about staying here and I think it should be clear to them that doing so WILL come at great personal cost. If Stamkos stays for like $4 million AAV don't be surprised
 

Sky04

Registered User
Jan 8, 2009
29,202
18,368
You really think JBB wouldn't give Palat term for 3M and Stamkos is going to sign for 4? Wtf did you smoke today lol
 
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JTBF81

Registered User
Dec 6, 2018
4,038
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Tampa, FL.
JBB isn't going to sacrifice Hagel and possibly a couple other younger players to overpay a playoff dud(most years) for his age 35-39 seasons. He's a great regular season player and from all accounts a great Captain, but handing him another big deal at the expense of losing possibly 2 or 3 other quality younger guys shuts the window a lot faster.
 
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DFC

Registered User
Sep 26, 2013
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We've had to lose guys like Gourde, Goodrow, Coleman, Palat and McDonagh because it was time for other guys to get their payday or it just got too expensive otherwise to keep them and business was business and all things were ended professionally. I think what we're going to see is our vets take less than any of us can possibly imagine for the sake of staying and that becomes the conclusion of "the way"

1. Sign your entry deal
2. Take a scheduled loss in your first extension
3. Next extension is dolla dolla bill$ y'all cuz JFBB don't care, he just be handin BiG d3ALz to errrbuddy
4. Favorable retirement contract

I absolutely believe this was going to start with Palat and he was going to sign for like $3 million AAV but JFBB was not keen on the term Palat wanted. It sounds like it just didn't work out and (once again) business was business


I think Killorn is going to surprise us all and so will Stamkos. They seem really serious about staying here and I think it should be clear to them that doing so WILL come at great personal cost. If Stamkos stays for like $4 million AAV don't be surprised
Stamkos would need to age 10 years next season to sign for 4, or anything close to it. Bad playoff and all, he's still legitimately an 8m player in this league.

4m is good bottom-6 money these days, and I dont know that we will ever see Stamkos in that role.
 

JTBF81

Registered User
Dec 6, 2018
4,038
2,132
Tampa, FL.
Stamkos would need to age 10 years next season to sign for 4, or anything close to it. Bad playoff and all, he's still legitimately an 8m player in this league.

4m is good bottom-6 money these days, and I dont know that we will ever see Stamkos in that role.
Maybe so, and I'm sure if he wants 8 million there will be a team that will give it to him; however, if he wants to finish his career in Tampa, he'll need to take less. JBB has shown no single player is above keeping the team going and the window open. Paying Stamkos 8 million at that point in his career would.be doing the exact opposite of that strategy.
 

These Are The Days

Oh no! We suck again!!
May 17, 2014
34,540
20,376
Tampa Bay
Yes 6 years.... at 5M..

If you're right then that's ridiculous. There was a reported number at shorter term and AAV than that and no deal was to be made. I get it. If Stamkos' agent calls next summer and is like "Yo Julien! 6 years and $7 million AAV!" hang up the phone and start the rebuild. The cap hasn't budged in years because players had to be paid during COVID and unless it skyrockets I don't know how the hell we're supposed to afford Stamkos either unless he discounts us.

Players are obsessed with signing contracts til they're 38 and the shit needs to stop. The only recent guys REALLY worth a damn at that age lately have been Patrice Bergeron, Joe Pavelski, Marty St. Louis, Corey Perry and Matt Cullen. I have no idea if Ondrej Palat can carry his play until then but the last thing the Lightning need is to hold onto guys past their shelf life. I also don't what is going to happen or how any of these guys are supposed to stick around unless they sign the cheapest deals of their career
 

DFC

Registered User
Sep 26, 2013
47,215
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Maybe so, and I'm sure if he wants 8 million there will be a team that will give it to him; however, if he wants to finish his career in Tampa, he'll need to take less. JBB has shown no single player is above keeping the team going and the window open. Paying Stamkos 8 million at that point in his career would.be doing the exact opposite of that strategy.
I agree, if he wants term. I'm not saying we will pay him 8; I'm saying it's not gonna be 4.
 

DFC

Registered User
Sep 26, 2013
47,215
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I'll bet it's more like 4 or 5 years, and then he will start thinking about how much longer he wants to play.
 

garmonbozia

Registered User
Jan 10, 2006
907
91
I think on the open market Stamkos' resume gets him 10m AAV. If he doesn't significantly fall off next season it's very easy to see him being able to command more than he currently makes. If he re-signs for anything less than his current AAV it would be remarkable. I can't see him signing for less than his previous contracts 7.5 AAV. I don't think we'll even be able to afford that.
 

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