Post-Game Talk: Squid, Calamari? Jets win in OT 3-2

[Larabee]

I like the way Wheeler is redefining himself in the last years of his career. Big body, physical player with a mean streak. Sort of like Adam Lowry but with slightly softer mits.

 

[Dr Amazing204]

Go Jets Go.

 

[SUX2BU]

So, we need Patches O'Houlihan?

Oh yeah?

 

[Jet]

It must be hard to hate on PLD these days based on how he's playing and contributing to Jets W's but I see some are still trying

 

[GJF]

I'm with people here starting to talk about PLD. Game after game I think more about him being quite sad having to lose him in the off-season... or are we really going to lose him?

Let's give this until the rest of the season, the Jets being in a confident playoff spot. Now add a decent playoff run to that, an announcement of either Bowness staying OR the signing of a very good exciting coach, the look of a good contract for him in terms over maybe two or three years (alongside the Jets contending window with the contracts of Scheifele and Helle) and well... maybe he likes his chances of competing with us. He can still sign with Montreal at a later stage in his career.

On a completely different note, his physic with the #80 on his shirt and the slighlty tinted visors remind me SO much of.... Nik Antropov. Didn't he have a slightly tinted visor as well over his last two years here? I'm pretty sure he did.

Dubois is quite a bit faster and a lot more skilled with the puck obviously. But from their general physique and appearance on the ice. Sometimes it feels too real

 

[Aggie204]

It must be hard to hate on PLD these days based on how he's playing and contributing to Jets W's but I see some are still trying

I’m still bitter, but I can enjoy a win tho.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I find Connors shot has gotten really soft and lost some accuracy, I hope it's confidence and not injury

He's probably questioning himself at this point. All players go through slumps. Hope he handles this one well.

He always used to have the knack for finding whatever the goalie would give him. This year, he is shooting it where the goalie is instead of where he is not.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the option is always there to go back to De Melo, and move Samberg with Pionk, but I look at some of the scoring chances they generated last night, like the consecutive one timers in the Kraken zone late in the game, and those are players that are thinking on the same level, and spacing accordingly. Two good things have emerged since the changes were made on defense. Morrissey and Pionk are getting points consistenly, and Samberg-De Melo have developed as a top PK pairing. I feel like those are both significant to the team's success. I'm not much in the mood for arguing after a good Sunday, I'll just say that Morrissey with Pionk to me show a lot of the same attributes that Josi and Ellis had to be an undersized but very successful pairing. And where Morrissey was the shutdown d-man, getting those PK1 minutes, he's now the most important offensive player on this team.

I mean the Jets did beat Josi-Ellis in the playoffs, by making them defend, so that's something to consider, but right now I say run with what is working, and all 3 pairings on defense are getting the job done.

Not the way I saw the pairings at any time. I always had DeMelo with JMo - but it is working for all 3 pairs right now. I wouldn't want to change that just because of some preconceived idea.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I like that they pushed the envelope...similar to when the Sharks came on the scene with the teal jerseys.

Not my team so it is not like I would buy one.

Like I said, to each their own. Looked to me more like they burned the envelope.

I don't give credit just for trying to be different if the result is that bad.

 

[bumblebeeman]

I like the way Wheeler is redefining himself in the last years of his career. Big body, physical player with a mean streak. Sort of like Adam Lowry but with slightly softer mits.

I'd say way better mits. But ya it's crazy how Wheeler went from one of the fastest skaters on the Jets to one of the slowest in a couple years

 

[JetsFan815]

I'm with people here starting to talk about PLD. Game after game I think more about him being quite sad having to lose him in the off-season... or are we really going to lose him?

Let's give this until the rest of the season, the Jets being in a confident playoff spot. Now add a decent playoff run to that, an announcement of either Bowness staying OR the signing of a very good exciting coach, the look of a good contract for him in terms over maybe two or three years (alongside the Jets contending window with the contracts of Scheifele and Helle) and well... maybe he likes his chances of competing with us. He can still sign with Montreal at a later stage in his career.

On a completely different note, his physic with the #80 on his shirt and the slighlty tinted visors remind me SO much of.... Nik Antropov. Didn't he have a slightly tinted visor as well over his last two years here? I'm pretty sure he did.

Dubois is quite a bit faster and a lot more skilled with the puck obviously. But from their general physique and appearance on the ice. Sometimes it feels too real

Here's a mind blowing stat. At 5v5 Antropov on Jets, outproduced PLD on Jets

Antropov: 1.66 points/60
PLD: 1.54 points/60

That is despite PLD playing on average with way more skill on his lines that Nik ever did.

If you look at their careers and include Antropov's prime Atlanta/Toronto days, the difference is even more stark:

Antropov: 1.95 points/60
PLD: 1.66 points/60

Antropov was a better player than many gave him credit for and PLD is not as good some think. PP points make PLD's top line stats look better, his offense has been exceptionally average a 5v5 and he is just OK defensively and is no Bergeron/O'Reilly,

 

[JetsFan815]

I think you're subconsciously looking for mistakes from Dubois and not from the others. Dubois doesn't play the way Scheifele and Connor do.

Quite the opposite. In games when he is being physical he looks great to me and my eyetest. It's only until I look at the stats I realize how decidedly average his numbers are. In fact I would say that for me he is way better on my eyetest similar to how rookie season Tanev always looked good to my eyetest until I looked at the stats and saw that all that skating around and hitting was not accomplishing much based on his underlying stats, atleast in his rookie season where he was one of the worst Jets forwards (ofcourse PLD is a much better player than Tanev, not comparing the two)

 

[surixon]

Quite the opposite. In games when he is being physical he looks great to me and my eyetest. It's only until I look at the stats I realize how decidedly average his numbers are. In fact I would say that for me he is way better on my eyetest similar to how rookie season Tanev always looked good to my eyetest until I looked at the stats and saw that all that skating around and hitting was not accomplishing much based on his underlying stats, atleast in his rookie season where he was one of the worst Jets forwards (ofcourse PLD is a much better player than Tanev, not comparing the two)

I'm curious to see if we see an increase in scoring rates in the top 6 across the board at some point this year. To me I think fixing the defense has been the first priority for our forwards. I think the last thing that we see improvement in is offensive generation.

 

[DRW204]

this offense still has room for improvement. having ehlers come back, and perhaps KC can actually finish would be quite a boost. howver, having a middling offense would be nothing really new for bowness. dallas was 31st in 5v5 gf/60, 24th in all-strengths from 19-'21. currently the Jets are 28th and 17th. i dont expect them to continue like this though.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm with people here starting to talk about PLD. Game after game I think more about him being quite sad having to lose him in the off-season... or are we really going to lose him?

Let's give this until the rest of the season, the Jets being in a confident playoff spot. Now add a decent playoff run to that, an announcement of either Bowness staying OR the signing of a very good exciting coach, the look of a good contract for him in terms over maybe two or three years (alongside the Jets contending window with the contracts of Scheifele and Helle) and well... maybe he likes his chances of competing with us. He can still sign with Montreal at a later stage in his career.

On a completely different note, his physic with the #80 on his shirt and the slighlty tinted visors remind me SO much of.... Nik Antropov. Didn't he have a slightly tinted visor as well over his last two years here? I'm pretty sure he did.

Dubois is quite a bit faster and a lot more skilled with the puck obviously. But from their general physique and appearance on the ice. Sometimes it feels too real

There has been speculation, and there can be a strong, logical basis for it, as you point out. While I maintain some hope that it will turn out that way, deep down, I know he is probably gone. There was just too much smoke. That was all put in the rearview mirror once the season started. The lack of any recent buzz is encouraging the speculation. That is just recency bias.

This is a case where I choose the pessimists avoidance of disappointment. I will be pleasantly surprised if he extends here.

 

[Cleatus]

Here's a mind blowing stat. At 5v5 Antropov on Jets, outproduced PLD on Jets

Antropov: 1.66 points/60
PLD: 1.54 points/60

That is despite PLD playing on average with way more skill on his lines that Nik ever did.

If you look at their careers and include Antropov's prime Atlanta/Toronto days, the difference is even more stark:

Antropov: 1.95 points/60
PLD: 1.66 points/60

Antropov was a better player than many gave him credit for and PLD is not as good some think. PP points make PLD's top line stats look better, his offense has been exceptionally average a 5v5 and he is just OK defensively and is no Bergeron/O'Reilly,

Coming from a fan of the Leafs (and Jets ), Antropov always had great potential, but could (almost) never stay healthy. Things would've been ALOT different for him if he didn't bust up both of his knees early in his career.

Regardless, I've always had really high hopes for PLD, and strongly feel he should be a core piece going forward (plays a rare style that'll be sorely missed if he leaves or is traded).

 

[GJF]

Here's a mind blowing stat. At 5v5 Antropov on Jets, outproduced PLD on Jets

Antropov: 1.66 points/60
PLD: 1.54 points/60

That is despite PLD playing on average with way more skill on his lines that Nik ever did.

If you look at their careers and include Antropov's prime Atlanta/Toronto days, the difference is even more stark:

Antropov: 1.95 points/60
PLD: 1.66 points/60

Antropov was a better player than many gave him credit for and PLD is not as good some think. PP points make PLD's top line stats look better, his offense has been exceptionally average a 5v5 and he is just OK defensively and is no Bergeron/O'Reilly,

That is indeed kind of mind blowing, yep!

 

[surixon]

Sounds like Appelton needs surgery and will be out atleast 8 weeks. The injuries are starting to pile up.

 

[JetsFan815]

Really feels like there should be a game today. This schedule sucks.

 

[DRW204]

Here's a mind blowing stat. At 5v5 Antropov on Jets, outproduced PLD on Jets

Antropov: 1.66 points/60
PLD: 1.54 points/60

That is despite PLD playing on average with way more skill on his lines that Nik ever did.

If you look at their careers and include Antropov's prime Atlanta/Toronto days, the difference is even more stark:

Antropov: 1.95 points/60
PLD: 1.66 points/60

Antropov was a better player than many gave him credit for and PLD is not as good some think. PP points make PLD's top line stats look better, his offense has been exceptionally average a 5v5 and he is just OK defensively and is no Bergeron/O'Reilly,

So what exactly is your conclusion with PLD, given it's a contract year and a decision need to be made? what would you sign him too if he is willing, or would you look at trading and use the money elsewhere and get perhaps find a better player?

it seems based on a few recent posts of yours, you're painting him closer to a PP specialist/average-below average 5v5 scoring (which is basically the opposite of what he was in CBJ). the stats seem to bear it out too.

i see him more of a 55-65 pt C, maybe peak year in the 75-80 pt range. he has 12 pts in 14 gp so far, last year he started off even better with 14 in 14, ended the year with 60 pts. the size and physicality is great and all and something we miss in our top-6. agreed on his defensive play too, i remember folks comparing him to toews or bergeron he's no where close to that. i think he's average in his defensive play or just OK as you say. not a liability but not a 2-way force.

 

[JetsFan815]

So what exactly is your conclusion with PLD, given it's a contract year and a decision need to be made? what would you sign him too if he is willing, or would you look at trading and use the money elsewhere and get perhaps find a better player?

it seems based on a few recent posts of yours, you're painting him closer to a PP specialist/average-below average 5v5 scoring (which is basically the opposite of what he was in CBJ). the stats seem to bear it out too.

i see him more of a 55-65 pt C, maybe peak year in the 75-80 pt range. he has 12 pts in 14 gp so far, last year he started off even better with 14 in 14, ended the year with 60 pts. the size and physicality is great and all and something we miss in our top-6. agreed on his defensive play too, i remember folks comparing him to toews or bergeron he's no where close to that. i think he's average in his defensive play or just OK as you say. not a liability but not a 2-way force.

I don't think the Jets have a choice since he wants out, they'll have to move him anyways. If he was willing to sign. I'd sign him as he still brings something to the table but overall doesn't live up to the 1C label that many put on him.

 

[DRW204]

I don't think the Jets have a choice since he wants out, they'll have to move him anyways. If he was willing to sign. I'd sign him as he still brings something to the table but overall doesn't live up to the 1C label that many put on him.

Agreed the jets do not have the choice.

But if he's being signed it's probably 8m+ being this close to ufa. To me that's a slight overpay for a career 55 pts/82 gp player & essentially no change as a Jet. But I'd say it's one that the Jets can stomach in order to retain him. Pts get you paid and I don't think gm's necessarily care where they come from.

Like you said, he has worse efficiency than antropov despite superior linemates, and is heavily reliant on pp.... What price are you personally comfortable at for that sort of player.

 

[JetsUK]

There has been speculation, and there can be a strong, logical basis for it, as you point out. While I maintain some hope that it will turn out that way, deep down, I know he is probably gone. There was just too much smoke. That was all put in the rearview mirror once the season started. The lack of any recent buzz is encouraging the speculation. That is just recency bias.

This is a case where I choose the pessimists avoidance of disappointment. I will be pleasantly surprised if he extends here.

Agree, but I can see a short extension having some appeal, depending on where he wants to play out the later stretch of his career. Somewhere between 2-3 years, with some degree of overpay, like a bridge deal tacked onto the end of his RFA deal.

That way he has some flexibility and he's a young player, so likely just hitting his prime or in the thick of it when he exits.

 

[voyageur]

I'm curious to see if we see an increase in scoring rates in the top 6 across the board at some point this year. To me I think fixing the defense has been the first priority for our forwards. I think the last thing that we see improvement in is offensive generation.

I'd like to find one poster on this site who predicted we'd be 2nd in GAA to start the season and paced by Scheifele's potential 50 goal season. It's a renaissance. I thought the Jets goal this year should be to become a 3 GF/g team and 2.75 GA/g team, tighten up. I thought that would be the key to their success, but the defensive game is vastly improved, and Hellebuyck going from .910 SV% with some leaky goals, to .923 this year is part of that.

Ehlers should pace more scoring when he comes back. PP improvement would help too.

Such a funny year with Scheifele heading towards 50 goals, Dubois just around 40, Pionk and Wheeler 20. Connor and Ehlers not contributing much to goal scoring. Probably see a few corrections in there over the course of the season.

 

[voyageur]

Agree, but I can see a short extension having some appeal, depending on where he wants to play out the later stretch of his career. Somewhere between 2-3 years, with some degree of overpay, like a bridge deal tacked onto the end of his RFA deal.

That way he has some flexibility and he's a young player, so likely just hitting his prime or in the thick of it when he exits.

I think that free agent class, with Matthews, Aho, Pettersson, Scheifele, Dubois, Lindholm, Backlund, Stamkos has got the agents salivating for cashouts. Cap could be up by $5-7 million by that point. A top line centre will definitely be in the $10 million + range, maybe pushing $15 million for Matthews. The guys who re-signed like Miller or Suzuki took the guaranteed money, Barkov's and Barzal's contracts are probably the ones that will be used as comparables, but that free agent class is going to push the envelope. Which makes it tough on Chevy, who's been notoriously good at getting players for fair value. This year's centre class with Horvat and Larkin will probably start the bidding, as the Cap goes up, be interesting to see how the older guys like Toews and O'Reilly get paid, or Monahan, who has fallen from being a #1 C, in terms of pay. A 40 goal year for Dubois would mean at least $10 million I think this offseason.