Spring 2016 Prospect Poll: #1

[Jim Carr's Rug]

Because before the season they were on the same level as prospects, but Bailey has seperated himself by coming up and having some terrific showings in the NHL.

I'm expecting that if Fasching gets a late season look with the big club this year, he'll look just as good if not better than Bailey did this season. Fasching is having a fantastic year himself. I like Bailey as well, but I think both the floor and ceiling is higher for Fasching.

 

[SamuraiArt]

Fasching, add Olofsson.

 

[Zman5778]

Fasching, add Borgen.

 

[haseoke39]

Fasching needs to make it through a practice or two against professional players before he gets serious consideration from me for the top spot. If Fasching can do next season what Bailey did this year, he'd be progressing very well.

 

[DazedandConfused]

Borgen

 

[old kummelweck]

The prospect pool is getting a bit thin.

 

[Jame]

Fasching needs to make it through a practice or two against professional players before he gets serious consideration from me for the top spot. If Fasching can do next season what Bailey did this year, he'd be progressing very well.

Fasching is progressing very well, just the same.

This is why I think having some form of a system of measurment/ranking for prospects is critical. While you may place Bailey ahead on the factor of development, do you place him ahead in other terms that are relative to a prospect (ceiling, floor, skill, etc).

Obviously, you factor these other things in, as you voted Baptiste ahead of Larsson (playing pro) in previous polls.

 

[Chainshot]

Both Fasching and Bailey have a lot to offer here, given the field. I love how Bailey has progressed in the last few months and his games in recall were both energetic and encouraging. That said, I also love how Fasching has taken the reins in Minny and been "the" guy driving since mid-December. Neither is a bad choice here.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Both Fasching and Bailey have a lot to offer here, given the field. I love how Bailey has progressed in the last few months and his games in recall were both energetic and encouraging. That said, I also love how Fasching has taken the reins in Minny and been "the" guy driving since mid-December. Neither is a bad choice here.

I think the reason most people have Fasching above Bailey is that he has a much higher ceiling. No one ever projected Bailey to be a top-liner, whereas Fasching could legitimately fill that role. He also has a higher floor. I love Bailey and think he'll be a big part of this team but I have a hard time putting him ahead of Fasching (and maybe even Ullmark) for the Ceiling/Floor reasons.

 

[Chainshot]

I think the reason most people have Fasching above Bailey is that he has a much higher ceiling. No one ever projected Bailey to be a top-liner, whereas Fasching could legitimately fill that role. He also has a higher floor. I love Bailey and think he'll be a big part of this team but I have a hard time putting him ahead of Fasching (and maybe even Ullmark) for the Ceiling/Floor reasons.

Oh, I understand the floor-to-ceiling aspect of it. I don't think the proximity of the two here is a bad thing either -- both have things to offer the big club going forward. I still have Fasching higher right now. And Bailey still impressed me with his recall play and the games in Rochester that got him there.

And both should be on the lookout if Buffalo hits a lottery pick because that's going to clutter up the view at forward even more.

 

[haseoke39]

Fasching is progressing very well, just the same.

This is why I think having some form of a system of measurment/ranking for prospects is critical. While you may place Bailey ahead on the factor of development, do you place him ahead in other terms that are relative to a prospect (ceiling, floor, skill, etc).

Obviously, you factor these other things in, as you voted Baptiste ahead of Larsson (playing pro) in previous polls.

I don't think they have terribly different ceilings. Fasching is a little different type of player. He's the better grinder, Bailey's the better skater. Both are good in tight. Fasching plays more in all areas of the ice, but that's to be expected in his third year at the same level. I expect if you left Bailey at the AHL level for a couple more years he'd be relied on in more situations as well.

I don't think Bailey will get the chance, though. I think he's a likely extended call-up next season before making an NHL roster as a full-time top 6 player soon after. If Fasching could hit the same benchmarks, I'd be more than pleased. I don't see Fasching as a star in the making. If he plays on a top line some day, it'll probably be because he has good chemistry with someone.

For independence's sake, you've got a 7.5C vs. a 7.0C, with Bailey on top. Don't bet the house on that, but it suggests there's not a big consensus that Fasching has the substantially higher ceiling.

 

[Husko]

Fasching is progressing very well, just the same.

This is why I think having some form of a system of measurment/ranking for prospects is critical. While you may place Bailey ahead on the factor of development, do you place him ahead in other terms that are relative to a prospect (ceiling, floor, skill, etc).

Obviously, you factor these other things in, as you voted Baptiste ahead of Larsson (playing pro) in previous polls.

Agreed. On my charts Fasching blows Bailey away in final calculus. Also, FWIW, I don't rate Bailey higher on 'development,' because I think they both are a year in the AHL away from full-time in the NHL, Bailey's nice callup notwithstanding. What the callup did do for me is raise his floor, I'm now a lot more confident in him panning out as something.

 

[Husko]

Hudson Fasching
Total: 7.375
Ceiling: 8
Floor: 6
Expectation: 7.5
Development: 7

Justin Bailey
Total: 6.7
Ceiling: 8
Floor: 5
Expectation: 6
Development: 7

At the end of the day, I see Fasching and Bailey at similar points of development and with similar ceilings. I just believe in Fasching a lot more.

 

[Jame]

Agreed. On my charts Fasching blows Bailey away in final calculus. Also, FWIW, I don't rate Bailey higher on 'development,' because I think they both are a year in the AHL away from full-time in the NHL, Bailey's nice callup notwithstanding. What the callup did do for me is raise his floor, I'm now a lot more confident in him panning out as something.

same here...

Rank Name Total Talent/Ceiling Development Floor Projection
1 Fasching 7.4 4 4 2.5 3.5
2 Bailey 6.75 3.5 4 2.5 3


edit: wow.... are we on a similar wavelength or what lol

 

[Matt Ress]

Yeah. They've been pretty equal up until now. Bailey is doing it at a higher level and looked great at the highest level. Quite honestly, I'm pretty shocked Fasching is dominating this poll. Most people had them pretty neck and neck last year.

I get your reasoning and have always been high on Bailey, loved his Buffalo showings and had him higher over the summer but Fasching has also taken big steps this season.

 

[Ruckus007]

Fasching + Borgen for me.

Keeping in mind that these rankings, especially in the spring, are a snapshot at a single point in time then I think Fasching is the reasonably clear top option at this point. Or to put it a different way, if you had Fasching above Bailey in the summer then I think nothing should change that now. Conversely, if you had Bailey over Fasching in the summer I don't see a problem with still having him over Fasching now.

I'm really interested in seeing how things shake out behind Fasching.

 

[dire wolf]

Hudson. Add Cornel

 

[yahhockey]

With the graduations the cupboards look bare. Not that there aren't NHL players in there but none of them blow you off your feet. At least now that we have O'Reilly, Eichel and Reinhart we may not need the others to be flashy or great.

 

[CaseyMitts37]

Fasching, add Borgen

 

[NotABadPeriod]

With the graduations the cupboards look bare. Not that there aren't NHL players in there but none of them blow you off your feet. At least now that we have O'Reilly, Eichel and Reinhart we may not need the others to be flashy or great.

Yep. The top of the prospect ranks isn't nearly as high end as it used to be, but we're now in a position where it doesn't have to be thanks to the young high end talent on the roster.

 

[Paxon]

With the graduations the cupboards look bare. Not that there aren't NHL players in there but none of them blow you off your feet. At least now that we have O'Reilly, Eichel and Reinhart we may not need the others to be flashy or great.

Our only obvious chance to add a core-level/possibly elite prospect is going to be with our 1st. After that it comes down to luck, scouting, and balls from our front office. I'd love to be the team that hits on a Gaudreau or Gostisbehere for once. But yeah, our prospect pool is all potential solid contibutors. The good news is we have some sturdy-bodied forwards at the top of the board who project pretty well to the pros, which should really help fill out a roster that in large part has its core/elite pieces in place.

 

[ottawah]

Fashing by a hair, but it is really close between those three RW's, pick any order.

Baptiste had the better of Bailey before his injury, but all along it has been the injury concerns with Baptiste to me, and those cannot be discounted.

Add Cornel.

 

[signalIInoise]

Ullmark. Already has a few 'W's in the bigs.

 

[Husko]

same here...

Rank Name Total Talent/Ceiling Development Floor Projection
1 Fasching 7.4 4 4 2.5 3.5
2 Bailey 6.75 3.5 4 2.5 3


edit: wow.... are we on a similar wavelength or what lol

I'd call that... consensus.

Strangely, I now have Ulmark and then Peterson as my next two. It's mostly a statistical outlier for me to have 2 goalies so high due to 1) Linus being one of the few in our pool left that retains high potential and is close on development/has proven he can play, 2) how high I am on Peterson, and 3) the lack of other guys who both are close and have high ceilings.

 

[Yatzhee]

Fasching add Oloffson