GDT: So We're Really Doing This Huh? Devils @ Islanders, 7:30 PM, MSG/MSG+2

[Guttersniped]

There were definitely some disagreement in discussions where some people said Zacha’s goal scoring was probably overheated in the last season and start of this season due to his shooting percentage being so high.

The retort was that Zacha had figured out how to score; that his additional shooting rate was also leading to a higher shooting percentage; that seemed unlikely and the rest of the season seems to be showing that not to be true.

Zacha shooting % 5v5 is down to 7.84%, which disappointing but he hasn’t scored in a while. He’s shooting more and better than he did in 2019-20, when he was a played like a bag of animal crap. (Statistically speaking.)

His ixG/60 5v5 (individual expected goals) is a bit a higher this season than the last one, he’s just been unlucky rather than having a horse shoe up his ass. I mean, even his relative advanced stats are quite good, not just his rates. (The actual goals against, as with Nico, aren’t all that pretty, but their On Ice SV % are brutal.)

It’s pretty amusing to go to raw point totals now to bag on the guy.

Again, unless he decides to start scoring a lot he’s not up for a long contract or a raise above his 3m qualifying offer. He hasn’t started playing worse though, he’s still successfully mutated into a mildly useful middle six forward with unfulfilled promise (rather than a fringy nightmare people kept calling “Zajac’s replacement” which was never not annoying or not wrong.)

Zacha reminds somewhat of Colorado’s various reclamation projects (Burokovsky & Nichushin). Maltsev even low key fits the same mold.

The Avs got Nichushin for free though, after Dallas bought out his 3 year/2.95m deal in June 2019. They signed him to a minimum deal in 2019-20 and he earned a 2 year/2.5m deal which ends this year.

Burakovsky cost a 2nd & 3rd, and got a 1 year/3.25m deal (his qualifying offer in 2019-20). And then he got a 2 year/4.9m deal that ends this off-season.

Unfortunately Burakovsky had more value as a more reliable shooter, and the Avs have less cap space and fewer picks/assets to work with this days. Doubt they would spend much of anything on Zacha. (Burakovsky is presumably a goner though.)

The Avs might think they can squeeze more offense out of him though, and they did that with Nichushin so I wouldn’t bet against it. He would need to sign for cheap but again, I wouldn’t bet against them getting a short cheap contract out of him either. Them juicing his offense would be boon for his long term career survival. It wouldn’t shock me if Zacha ended up there somehow. (I’m normally easily shocked by trades, I get the vapors easily.)

 

[Billdo]

if I was his agent id inform him to sit out until UFA, then try for a 2-3 year deal. If he were to get injured and play poorly again on a one year deal, hed essentially ax any chance of getting another multi-year deal

has anyone ever done this?

 

[Guttersniped]

Even if we signed him to 3/4 years, that contract could be so easily moved that it wouldn't ever cross my mind as any sort of anchor

teams manage to move 5m+ contracts with term, Im sure if Zacha continues to stumble he could be moved with a 2nd in year two or three

I just dont see why hed accept a one year deal; if I was his agent id inform him to sit out until UFA, then try for a 2-3 year deal. If he were to get injured and play poorly again on a one year deal, hed essentially ax any chance of getting another multi-year deal

First of all, siting out makes him a year older, not a UFA. You get to be a UFA with 7 played seasons or by being 27 years old.

And you would be a bad agent, he’s not good enough to take the whole year off and get any significant longer deal.

If he did it would be a very cheap one because his projected production would be a mystery. His qualifying offer is 3m and he wouldn’t get that in a year.

He’s not playing worse this year, it’s really going to be mostly puck luck. He’s not shooting differently, the improvements of last year are still there. I was hoping for more on top of that offensively but he is playing on what’s basically a shut down line at times. McLeod gets a lot defensive zone face-offs but the Nico line has gotten the toughest competition. (Which isn’t necessarily the best for our offense but our bottom six has been a mess defensively.)