GDT: Slugs at Canes

[Navin R Slavin]

You can keep making your point from your point of view, and you can explain it as much as you want.

It doesn't mean that your judgement in this situation is better than HCRBA. It doesn't mean you see all the variables. And it certainly doesn't mean that HCRBA doesn't work to improve his coaching abilities, no matter what evidence you think you see to the contrary.

 

[NotOpie]

Yeah, 2 would be ideal. A lot depends on re-signing Ferland and what happens with Necas though. Hopefully 1 of those top 9 FWD slots comes back in a faulk trade.

Based on what I've seen of the Checkers this season, there are 3 guys that "feel" NHL ready: Saarela, Gauthier, and Bean. Gauthier has really turned up his game these last two months. Saarela has that pure sniper instinct plus plays a pretty responsible game. Bean has gotten better every month. I'm curious how all of this plays out.

In the end, you either give these guys a shot or you use their improvement as increased value to help the big club make a move that gets the additional required player(s). One way or another, there should be a few fresh faces, no matter where we end the season. We are not good enough to be the contender that we want to be. For that we need more talent one way or another.

Edit: I left out Necas because he seems like a given regardless.

You can keep making your point from your point of view, and you can explain it as much as you want.

It doesn't mean that your judgement in this situation is better than HCRBA. It doesn't mean you see all the variables. And it certainly doesn't mean that HCRBA doesn't work to improve his coaching abilities, no matter what evidence you think you see to the contrary.

The only point I'll agree w/Kev on in this instance is that our PP isn't great, perhaps adequate, but not great. For the most part the same group(s), the same tactics have been employed. Wondering aloud as to a different PP construction or different PP1/PP2 TOI is where a lot of us are. It does seem odd that Dougie hasn't gotten more time on the powerplay, whether that's through increased PP2 usage or a few stints on PP1.

Just watching the 2nd unit in this game gave me pause to think that a few tries would at least be in order.

 

[Joe McGrath]

To utilize Hamilton on PP 1, the whole thing needs to be torn down and started from scratch. I’m not against that. Hamilton, as far as I can tell, has never played the left point as a professional on the PP. Aho and TT (the only very talented players on the team) interchange in that spot on the top unit.

The idea that a team with 2 dumpster dive goalies and the lowest payroll in the league is on pace for the 2nd best regular season in franchise history and the coach is somehow holding them back from being even better is absolutely nuts.

 

[bleedgreen]

It’s not that Joe. We’ve all seen the power play let us down for notable parts of the season. To his credit, Rod’s stubbornness in trusting his guys and keeping pp1 HAS given them better chemistry. When they start whipping it around it works, maybe just short on the final moment but you can see the benefits.

When I bemoan Hamilton not being on pp1, it’s mostly just venting and musings because I know it’s way too late for Rod to try something completely new at this point. That doesn’t seem to be in his dna, unless pp1 goes into complete fail mode. Even then I don’t know if he’d change it. As you say we’re have a tremendously successful season so far so to me this isn’t really pointed or harsh criticism to wonder how to use Hamilton better. Dude had 17 goals last year. 13 goals this year with a slow start and the odd pp2 usage. Moving forward beyond this season you would think we’d find a way to take advantage of this guy.

We’re just scraping for every point right now. It’s hard to see the guy clearly wanting more and playing well, and not find a home for him. I almost wish Faulk had the flu or something and they had no choice but to try it out.

Even then it wouldn’t last because Dougie wouldn’t have the months to work it out that Faulk has had. He’d get a game.

 

[Primetime8]

Based on what I've seen of the Checkers this season, there are 3 guys that "feel" NHL ready: Saarela, Gauthier, and Bean. Gauthier has really turned up his game these last two months. Saarela has that pure sniper instinct plus plays a pretty responsible game. Bean has gotten better every month. I'm curious how all of this plays out.

In the end, you either give these guys a shot or you use their improvement as increased value to help the big club make a move that gets the additional required player(s). One way or another, there should be a few fresh faces, no matter where we end the season. We are not good enough to be the contender that we want to be. For that we need more talent one way or another.

Edit: I left out Necas because he seems like a given regardless.



The only point I'll agree w/Kev on in this instance is that our PP isn't great, perhaps adequate, but not great. For the most part the same group(s), the same tactics have been employed. Wondering aloud as to a different PP construction or different PP1/PP2 TOI is where a lot of us are. It does seem odd that Dougie hasn't gotten more time on the powerplay, whether that's through increased PP2 usage or a few stints on PP1.

Just watching the 2nd unit in this game gave me pause to think that a few tries would at least be in order.

If Saarela were right-handed he would be playing 3rd line wing and on PP2 for the Canes right now

 

[bleedgreen]

Rod being slapped on the back thanks to the “accountability” he brought to camp is primarily based on Saarela and Foegele. I highly doubt it was the first time he made an assessment on either player, it was just his first camp making decisions. To me it’s a bit telling that the guy didn’t get called up yet, and that such a bright spotlight was put on him for being sent packing early. Had we made moves at the deadline I would’ve assumed he would’ve been included.

Rod is showing us what he likes, especially in his bottom six. He doesn’t care if you can score as long as you can grind. It’s boring af but winning tends to be not boring.

I’d be impressed if Saarela has a future with us. To me all the signs say Rod has already made that decision. Hopefully I’m wrong.

 

[Drivebytrucker]

Why does nobody mention Poturalksi as NHL ready?

Is he never going to be an NHL player?

 

[RodTheBawd]

Why are people still hanging on to the idea of Faulk's big shot being something effective? Has that slapper from the blueline resulted in ANY PP goals this season, directly or indirectly? When he's scored it's when he's skated in a bit and picked a corner, something Dougie is way more proficient at. JM is right, the whole thing should be scrapped, it's just too late in the season to do so.

What was this thread about again?

 

[Tryamw]

What was this thread about again?

This and That... the other thing and Whatchamacallit candy bars!.

 

[Ole Gil]

Why are people still hanging on to the idea of Faulk's big shot being something effective? Has that slapper from the blueline resulted in ANY PP goals this season, directly or indirectly? When he's scored it's when he's skated in a bit and picked a corner, something Dougie is way more proficient at. JM is right, the whole thing should be scrapped, it's just too late in the season to do so.

What was this thread about again?

Since Dec 31st, Canes PP is at 20.6%, good for 10th in the league. This is the thing you're looking to scrap, yes?

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

What was this thread about again?

As the great philosopher Hankichus once said: “beating they ass”

That or food

 

[Ahoy there]

just beat these chumps

ahem

 

[bleedgreen]

Since Dec 31st, Canes PP is at 20.6%, good for 10th in the league. This is the thing you're looking to scrap, yes?

That’s part of the reason I think we’re saying it won’t be. Even if Hamilton is a better choice the unit has had its moments and it doesn’t make sense to scrap it with ten games to go while we scratching and clawing for a playoff spot.

There have been games where we’ve had a pp goal or two and at the same time our top unit has looked brutal and more dangerous to our own goalie. In the end they HAVE scored some, whether they look awful at times or not. I think at this point its an academic argument about next season. Rod’s a dance with the girl you brought kinda guy and at this point in the season there’s no point disagreeing unless the unit completely dries up.

 

[GoldiFox]

Since Dec 31st, Canes PP is at 20.6%, good for 10th in the league. This is the thing you're looking to scrap, yes?

Faulk being the worst #1 PP D in the league by a wide margin and wanting to switch that up doesn't necessarily mean "scrapping" the PP1.

Individual Points % = The % of contributed points generated by a PP unit from an individual player.

There are 18 defenseman in the NHL with more than 200 PP minutes (Faulk has 218). The best D in the league for IPP is Drew Doughty at 92%. Which means that LA has generated 24 goals on the PP with Doughty on the ice and he has gotten a point on 22 of them (22/24 = 92%).

Faulk is #18 of #18 in IPP with 28.6%. Which means the Canes #1PP unit has scored 28 PP goals with Faulk on the ice and he has factored into just 8 of them. This number is bad, very bad. For reference on just how bad this is consider that #17 of #18 is Mark Giordano with a IPP of 52.5%.

Of the 18 clear #1PP defenseman in the NHL 17 of them factor into at least 50% of the offense generated from that unit. Faulk is factoring in on 28.6%.... I can't overstate how terrible this is. This is really, really, really bad.

Other Canes #1PP members with more than 200 minutes are Teravainen with an IPP of 84% and Sebastian Aho with an IPP of 75.9%. Nino has clocked in with an IPP of 66.7% since joining the Canes. Essentially all of the offense generated on the PP1 is a function of Aho/TT.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Faulk being the worst #1 PP D in the league by a wide margin and wanting to switch that up doesn't necessarily mean "scrapping" the PP1.

Individual Points % = The % of contributed points generated by a PP unit from an individual player.

There are 18 defenseman in the NHL with more than 200 PP minutes (Faulk has 218). The best D in the league for IPP is Drew Doughty at 92%. Which means that LA has generated 24 goals on the PP with Doughty on the ice and he has gotten a point on 22 of them (22/24 = 92%).

Faulk is #18 of #18 in IPP with 28.6%. Which means the Canes #1PP unit has scored 28 PP goals with Faulk on the ice and he has factored into just 8 of them. This number is bad, very bad. For reference on just how bad this is consider that #17 of #18 is Mark Giordano with a IPP of 52.5%.

Of the 18 clear #1PP defenseman in the NHL 17 of them factor into at least 50% of the offense generated from that unit. Faulk is factoring in on 28.6%.... I can't overstate how terrible this is. This is really, really, really bad.

Other Canes #1PP members with more than 200 minutes are Teravainen with an IPP of 84% and Sebastian Aho with an IPP of 75.9%. Nino has clocked in with an IPP of 66.7% since joining the Canes. Essentially all of the offense generated on the PP1 is a function of Aho/TT.

This is brutal.

 

[zman77]

Boys will win tonight and Thursday vs Tampa Bay.
'Canes are having fun winning.
They're that good.

 

[Ole Gil]

Faulk being the worst #1 PP D in the league by a wide margin and wanting to switch that up doesn't necessarily mean "scrapping" the PP1.

Individual Points % = The % of contributed points generated by a PP unit from an individual player.

There are 18 defenseman in the NHL with more than 200 PP minutes (Faulk has 218). The best D in the league for IPP is Drew Doughty at 92%. Which means that LA has generated 24 goals on the PP with Doughty on the ice and he has gotten a point on 22 of them (22/24 = 92%).

Faulk is #18 of #18 in IPP with 28.6%. Which means the Canes #1PP unit has scored 28 PP goals with Faulk on the ice and he has factored into just 8 of them. This number is bad, very bad. For reference on just how bad this is consider that #17 of #18 is Mark Giordano with a IPP of 52.5%.

Of the 18 clear #1PP defenseman in the NHL 17 of them factor into at least 50% of the offense generated from that unit. Faulk is factoring in on 28.6%.... I can't overstate how terrible this is. This is really, really, really bad.

Other Canes #1PP members with more than 200 minutes are Teravainen with an IPP of 84% and Sebastian Aho with an IPP of 75.9%. Nino has clocked in with an IPP of 66.7% since joining the Canes. Essentially all of the offense generated on the PP1 is a function of Aho/TT.

Giordano is only at 52% on the #10 PP even though he's a PPG defenseman. But with Monahan/Johnny/Lindholm on the ice, you're going to spread the touches around.

Doughty is at 92% on the 26th ranked PP. Because LA stinks, and so Kopitar and Drew are going to handle the puck for the lion's share of scoring chances by design. Does Doughty's high IPP show how great he is, or how terrible the Kings are?

You've already figured it out. The Canes Powerplay goes through TT/Aho. TT-Aho-Nieds, TT-Aho-Williams, Aho-TT-Faulk. Aho-TT-Williams. That's how they score their goals by design. It isn't meant to be balanced. Faulk is not supposed to be setting up as many shots as Aho is. He's supposed to quickly move the puck between Williams and TT, and take a shot if things open up, and he's been doing it well.

And this is all new.

Up until December 30th:
PP Shots:
Faulk - 35, Hamilton - 26, Aho -25, Williams - 22, TT - 21.
Since December 31st
PP Shots
Faulk - 22, Aho -22, Williams -22, TT- 15

They've seriously rebalanced how the puck flows on the PP.

I think I saw Civian RT something on the twitter machine early in the season, about how teams that relied on point shots on their PP were much less effective than teams that worked down low. I think the Canes made a big in season adjustment and have gotten with the times and nobody noticed.

 

[Ahoy there]

Faulk being the worst #1 PP D in the league by a wide margin and wanting to switch that up doesn't necessarily mean "scrapping" the PP1.

Individual Points % = The % of contributed points generated by a PP unit from an individual player.

There are 18 defenseman in the NHL with more than 200 PP minutes (Faulk has 218). The best D in the league for IPP is Drew Doughty at 92%. Which means that LA has generated 24 goals on the PP with Doughty on the ice and he has gotten a point on 22 of them (22/24 = 92%).

Faulk is #18 of #18 in IPP with 28.6%. Which means the Canes #1PP unit has scored 28 PP goals with Faulk on the ice and he has factored into just 8 of them. This number is bad, very bad. For reference on just how bad this is consider that #17 of #18 is Mark Giordano with a IPP of 52.5%.

Of the 18 clear #1PP defenseman in the NHL 17 of them factor into at least 50% of the offense generated from that unit. Faulk is factoring in on 28.6%.... I can't overstate how terrible this is. This is really, really, really bad.

Other Canes #1PP members with more than 200 minutes are Teravainen with an IPP of 84% and Sebastian Aho with an IPP of 75.9%. Nino has clocked in with an IPP of 66.7% since joining the Canes. Essentially all of the offense generated on the PP1 is a function of Aho/TT.

These are staggering numbers. They almost demand an explanation. Shoot, email them to DW or tweet them to TD and ask wth is the rationale

 

[Navin R Slavin]

These are staggering numbers. They almost demand an explanation. Shoot, email them to DW or tweet them to TD and ask wth is the rationale

LOL

Or maybe you should tweet them to @NHLEricT, whose actual job description is to know these things -- and to keep them proprietary, since they constitute competitive advantage.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Seriously, though, Eric Tulsky has spoken at MIT/Sloan about precisely this, in a talk entitled "No Stone Unturned". He speaks basically *precisely* to this exact scenario in the first minute.

Everyone should go watch it. Like, right now. It's from literally a month ago.

No Stone Unturned: Keeping up with the state of the art in the public domain - MIT Sloan Analytics Conference

I'm watching the whole thing right now, and it's *fascinating*.

 

[The Faulker 27]

Seriously, though, Eric Tulsky has spoken at MIT/Sloan about precisely this, in a talk entitled "No Stone Unturned". He speaks basically *precisely* to this exact scenario in the first minute.

Everyone should go watch it. Like, right now. It's from literally a month ago.

No Stone Unturned: Keeping up with the state of the art in the public domain - MIT Sloan Analytics Conference

I'm watching the whole thing right now, and it's *fascinating*.

That's a smart mofo right there.

 

[NotOpie]

I think I saw Civian RT something on the twitter machine early in the season, about how teams that relied on point shots on their PP were much less effective than teams that worked down low. I think the Canes made a big in season adjustment and have gotten with the times and nobody noticed.

If that is indeed the case, that would speak even more to getting Hamilton on the 1st unit....he's a better passer with better vision. However, I tend to agree, you're likely not going to tear something down that has improved a bit.

I think it might make sense to experiment a time or two w/Dougie on the PP1. But maybe more importantly, why not give PP2 a little more time on a few of these PPs? The last few times, they've seemed to move the puck more crisply once they were in the zone. They did have a little more difficult time entering the zone....at least that was my impression.

 

[bleedgreen]

LOL

Or maybe you should tweet them to @NHLEricT, whose actual job description is to know these things -- and to keep them proprietary, since they constitute competitive advantage.

I watched it, and I think he actually gives us an email. Send it now!!!

Definitely interesting, I'm not sure he gives away anything shocking but it's always good to see how his brain works.

 

[Ole Gil]

If that is indeed the case, that would speak even more to getting Hamilton on the 1st unit....he's a better passer with better vision. However, I tend to agree, you're likely not going to tear something down that has improved a bit.

I think it might make sense to experiment a time or two w/Dougie on the PP1. But maybe more importantly, why not give PP2 a little more time on a few of these PPs? The last few times, they've seemed to move the puck more crisply once they were in the zone. They did have a little more difficult time entering the zone....at least that was my impression.

You say he's a better passer, with better vision, but why? To me, he's seemed like a shoot first guy, who's second option is to skate a little bit until he can shoot. He reminds me a bit of Skinner offensively, where you might as well go to the net once he gets the puck. And there's nothing wrong with that at even strength. I hope he keeps firing. But I've yet to think 'wow, he makes a lot of good passes'. Just anecdotal, but it's not like he's filling up his stat line with assists either.

As for PP2 getting more minutes:

Since the Turnaround (Dec 31st)
PP1 in 90 minutes has 16 goals (TT, Aho, JW, NN, JF) (really good)
PP2 in 50 minutes has 4 total. (not good)

The shot totals are predictably lopsided as well. 2nd PP has 34 shots in 50 minutes. Compared with the 93 shots from PP1. Almost triple the shots in less than double the minutes.

 

[bleedgreen]

Well doesn’t the lack of minutes explain that? When you’re out there for a minute to a minute thirty of the pp you get extended looks, maintained pressure, second and third chances that all lead to better numbers. When the second pp gets out there there’s often 45 seconds to go and they are behind their own net. By the time they take the zone and set up they’re lucky to get a good chance before it’s over. I feel like you’re making the point for the other side.

As for Dougie and the shooting his coaches are of course telling him to shoot every chance. All the d are shot first intentionally, no? We play a simple style and no coach preaching that style would be a fan of creative passes from the point. When the moments do happen Dougie has always seemed sharp at seeing them. Faulk never really has. He’s not awful but he’s never shown really great vision or execution of difficult passes.