GDT: Slugs at Canes

[sabremike]

Hate to point this out but every other team in the playoff mix except the Pens has the Phail Housley 2 Point ATM on their schedule.

 

[bleedgreen]

I like Wallmark and if we found a good second center and moved Staal I’d be fine with him as our 3c.

I don’t assume a big rise in production though, and would be disappointed yet unsurprised if we started with the same two coming back as 2/3c.

 

[Ole Gil]

Nino is going to come back to earth though. He's a guy that has only hit 25G once in his career and only scored 50 once in his career. He's doing great, but he won't keep up his torrid pace over time. That's ok though as he will still be a decent top 6 F, but the team needs upgraded talent on top of that.

Even if we sign Ferland, we still need another top 9 FWD (2 if we don't sign Ferland) and that also assumes Necas is ready (which is speculative). Hopefully, that comes in a Faulk trade. And once a guy is signed, who cares where they slot him, particularly if guys like Svech and Necas are still on ELCs.

The interesting thing with Nino, is that his career shooting % is 12.9, with plenty of 13.4, 13.5, and 16.1. He's at 13.9 with the Canes. Historically, he's been a 160 shot guy. With the Canes, he's at a 240 pace. Historically, he consistently got 15 minutes a night. With the Canes, it's 18. 2nd unit powerplay. Now first unit power play.

The riddle is if the increased shots is a product of playing with 2 good play makers in a system that generates tons of high quality shots, or if it's just a hot streak.

 

[DougieSmash]

Haula is good target but he's LH. Signed for one more season.

 

[Drivebytrucker]

Assuming any of the three are going to be the third line LW is nonsensical. If we don’t get rw’s then lw’s will keep playing on the right, and Ferland already has plenty of experience over there. Injuries change the lines all the time. Assuming Svech is in the top six doesn’t make sense. He probably will be but that’s the call of the coach Rod.

Tampa figures out how to have “too many” decent forwards. Us planning to let go of one because we have “too many” when we have the bottom six we possess....

And why won’t he see pp time? He’s one of the better pp wingers on the team.

There's only so many spots. If Aho, TT, Svech, Nino and Necas are going to all need PP time in the next couple of years. If Williams is re-signed and we want to upgrade our forward group with another skilled guy.....

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

There's only so many spots. If Aho, TT, Svech, Nino and Necas are going to all need PP time in the next couple of years. If Williams is re-signed and we want to upgrade our forward group with another skilled guy.....

Simple, run 2 PP units and split time up. Leafs do it. TB does it. The 05/06 Carolina Hurricanes did it.

I long for the day we have to worry about too much skill and talent in our forward ranks.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The interesting thing with Nino, is that his career shooting % is 12.9, with plenty of 13.4, 13.5, and 16.1. He's at 13.9 with the Canes. Historically, he's been a 160 shot guy. With the Canes, he's at a 240 pace. Historically, he consistently got 15 minutes a night. With the Canes, it's 18. 2nd unit powerplay. Now first unit power play.

The riddle is if the increased shots is a product of playing with 2 good play makers in a system that generates tons of high quality shots, or if it's just a hot streak.

I do get that. If Nino can be a 30/30 guys for us, I'd love it, just that history has shown he hasn't been in 8 years in the league so until I see sustained performance, I'm going to be skeptical.

 

[DougieSmash]

I do get that. If Nino can be a 30/30 guys for us, I'd love it, just that history has shown he hasn't been in 8 years in the league so until I see sustained performance, I'm going to be skeptical.

This is the first time in Nino's career he's getting first line/first pp unit minutes. I think he could end up as 25 G/30 A winger.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

This is the first time in Nino's career he's getting first line/first pp unit minutes. I think he could end up as 25 G/30 A winger.

Agree. It's been said that he hasn't consistently gotten 1st line / first PP unit minutes because of his own inconsistencies. I haven't watched him enough to say one way or another.

It's been a great trade so far and hopefully he keeps it up. Worst case he should be putting up 20G for us regularly. If we get 25-30, that's even better.

 

[Negan4Coach]

The problem is were going forward with Svech and El Nino as LW 1 and 2...

Do you pay a guy 5 million plus to play 3rd line LW when he doesn't kill penalties and wont see much PP time?

That's a tough one....

On any other team I'd say no- but considering this is the lowest spending team in the league (I'm assuming this is still the case), why not? its not like we will be running into cap problems, right?

Its nice to not only be finally winning again but to be a fan of a team that isn't derided as the "Candy Canes" anymore for being so soft.

 

[Stickpucker]

Maybe it's just that as it gets to crunch time, teams are trying to clamp down and know that if you stop Aho's line, you have a great chance of beating Carolina. It's going to be harder for him to get things going because his line is going to be the focus of every team.

I don't see it especially b/c since January we didn't have Staal. I doubt anyone was sending out their shutdown pairings/forwards out to stop McKegg or Wallmark.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I don't see it especially b/c since January we didn't have Staal. I doubt anyone was sending out their shutdown pairings/forwards out to stop McKegg or Wallmark.

Fair enough. I do know that games tighten up more as the season gets into the later stages though and it's only going to get tougher with the schedule we have (vs. an easier schedule in Jan/Feb). Will be interesting to see.

 

[My Special Purpose]

I like Wallmark and if we found a good second center and moved Staal I’d be fine with him as our 3c.

I don’t assume a big rise in production though, and would be disappointed yet unsurprised if we started with the same two coming back as 2/3c.

There's only so many spots. If Aho, TT, Svech, Nino and Necas are going to all need PP time in the next couple of years. If Williams is re-signed and we want to upgrade our forward group with another skilled guy.....

Simple, run 2 PP units and split time up. Leafs do it. TB does it. The 05/06 Carolina Hurricanes did it.

I long for the day we have to worry about too much skill and talent in our forward ranks.

First of all, we should move this convo to the team building thread, since this game thread is going to fade to oblivion soon.

Secondly, my biggest fear about next season is Brindy. I am very excited about what he has done this season, but it's almost entirely based on getting the guys we have to play better, and to hold each other accountable. Pretty much *none* of our improvement is based on putting players in position to succeed, and putting people together based on performance.

The next step is improving the roster. Which is great, but only works if Brindy uses the players. Despite our success in the standings, I'm still very freaked out by Brindy's handling of personnel, specifically the power play units and Dougie Hamilton. Nothing I've seen this season makes me feel that Brindy will "let the players decide" who is ready, who needs PP time, etc. He seems to just put people together the way he wants to, then tells them to play hard, and never makes adjustments.

It's concerning to me, because our roster is in no way a finished product. Players are going to change, but is Roddy?

Is he willing to put out a PP1 unit of Aho, Svech, Ferland, Hamilton and Necas if they dominate in practice, move the puck quickly, and produce results? I don't think he will. Is he willing to pair Hamilton with de Haan instead of forcing the pairing with Slavin? I don't think he will. If Gauthier shows he's ready to play, will he keep him over Foegele? I don't think he will.

I *love* the internal competition we have right now. We've got more good players than at any point since the Whalers of the mid-to-late 80s. But it only works if the coach is willing to try something different, and I see no reason to think he will.

 

[emptyNedder]

Is he willing to put out a PP1 unit of Aho, Svech, Ferland, Hamilton and Necas if they dominate in practice, move the puck quickly, and produce results? I don't think he will.

I underestimated Hamilton. He is quite the offensive weapon and has been holding his own on defense. However, there is a reason he isn't on PP1 and wasn't with Calgary. His strength is not structured puck-moving. The majority of his goals come from quick zone entries in transition. He is much better than Faulk at that. But think about the Boston game, yes Faulk's play led to a short-handed goal, but the worst play on the power play was Hamilton's pass on the fist Canes power play. McElhinney bailed him out on what was a short-handed breakaway. Similar things have happened on other power plays.

I am pretty sure RBA is intentionally not sending Hamilton out with 4 forwards. With Slavin doing the puck carrying and being the last line of defense should things go wrong, Hamilton makes sense. He would be as much a liability as an asset if he was expected to carry the puck more along with Aho/TT on PP1.

 

[My Special Purpose]

I underestimated Hamilton. He is quite the offensive weapon and has been holding his own on defense. However, there is a reason he isn't on PP1 and wasn't with Calgary. His strength is not structured puck-moving. The majority of his goals come from quick zone entries in transition. He is much better than Faulk at that. But think about the Boston game, yes Faulk's play led to a short-handed goal, but the worst play on the power play was Hamilton's pass on the fist Canes power play. McElhinney bailed him out on what was a short-handed breakaway. Similar things have happened on other power plays.

I am pretty sure RBA is intentionally not sending Hamilton out with 4 forwards. With Slavin doing the puck carrying and being the last line of defense should things go wrong, Hamilton makes sense. He would be as much a liability as an asset if he was expected to carry the puck more along with Aho/TT on PP1.

A) Even Faulk doesn't carry the puck on PP1. TT/Aho seem to take turns making the zone entry.
B) Who says PPGs have to come from structured puck-moving? I've seen other teams score on rushes on the PP.​

It really comes down to who is the better player between Hamilton and Faulk, and there's basically no category or measurement in which Faulk is a better player than Hamilton.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

First of all, we should move this convo to the team building thread, since this game thread is going to fade to oblivion soon.

Secondly, my biggest fear about next season is Brindy. I am very excited about what he has done this season, but it's almost entirely based on getting the guys we have to play better, and to hold each other accountable. Pretty much *none* of our improvement is based on putting players in position to succeed, and putting people together based on performance.

The next step is improving the roster. Which is great, but only works if Brindy uses the players. Despite our success in the standings, I'm still very freaked out by Brindy's handling of personnel, specifically the power play units and Dougie Hamilton. Nothing I've seen this season makes me feel that Brindy will "let the players decide" who is ready, who needs PP time, etc. He seems to just put people together the way he wants to, then tells them to play hard, and never makes adjustments.

It's concerning to me, because our roster is in no way a finished product. Players are going to change, but is Roddy?

Is he willing to put out a PP1 unit of Aho, Svech, Ferland, Hamilton and Necas if they dominate in practice, move the puck quickly, and produce results? I don't think he will. Is he willing to pair Hamilton with de Haan instead of forcing the pairing with Slavin? I don't think he will. If Gauthier shows he's ready to play, will he keep him over Foegele? I don't think he will.

I *love* the internal competition we have right now. We've got more good players than at any point since the Whalers of the mid-to-late 80s. But it only works if the coach is willing to try something different, and I see no reason to think he will.

So you don't think Rod is the type to identify weaknesses in his game and work his ass off to improve them?

Ok.

 

[robbieberns]

what we need on the pp is something i’ve noticed multiple times from hamilton, which is the ability to see and quickly execute a lower probability/high reward pass the second a breakdown in coverage occurs

i’ll accept a little bit of risk on the op if it means we don’t get slow possession rececyled until faulk finally decides to unload

 

[My Special Purpose]

So you don't think Rod is the type to identify weaknesses in his game and work his ass off to improve them?

Ok.

I have 71 games of NHL coaching evidence that says he doesn't. As a player, I'm sure. But as a coach, nope.

 

[bleedgreen]

Dougie has the best offensive awareness of all the d by a country mile. He reads plays, anticipates where he needs to be, knows what to do when he gets there, and definitely can find wide open guys not expected by the d. He can beat the goalie clean or throw tippable pucks all day.

No, he wouldn’t be great at carrying the puck up the ice but Faulk is pretty bad at it too. Let others do that. Faulk aside from occasional moments has been mediocre at best on pp1. He doesn’t read the situation very well, nor does he execute plays without delay well.

#freedougie

 

[Ole Gil]

Faulk fits way better the way his spot is being used on PP1.

You can design a PP where Hamilton is the better option, but the one they run for the first unit isn’t it.

Faulk’s short passes are quick and on the tape. Who scores more goals with a big point shot gets the attention, but the quick accurate puck movement is the key to the Canes PowerPlay success from what I’ve seen. And Faulk is much better than Slavin/Hamilton in that department.

 

[emptyNedder]

Dougie has the best offensive awareness of all the d by a country mile. He reads plays, anticipates where he needs to be, knows what to do when he gets there, and definitely can find wide open guys not expected by the d.

Wouldn't Hamilton have significantly more assists if he was such a good passer/opportunity creator?

Which brings me to what we should be discussing--Pesce should be given a chance on the PP. Pesce has as many even-strength goals as Faulk and Slavin combined. He has more even-strength assists than Hamilton or Faulk. All with 9 fewer games played. Sorry BG--stats do sometime paint a picture.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I have 71 games of NHL coaching evidence that says he doesn't. As a player, I'm sure. But as a coach, nope.

Perhaps you're looking for the wrong kind of evidence -- the kind of evidence that fits your notion of what the coach should be doing.

As opposed to the kind of evidence that results in, you know, actual points.

 

[bleedgreen]

Wouldn't Hamilton have significantly more assists if he was such a good passer/opportunity creator?

Which brings me to what we should be discussing--Pesce should be given a chance on the PP. Pesce has as many even-strength goals as Faulk and Slavin combined. He has more even-strength assists than Hamilton or Faulk. All with 9 fewer games played. Sorry BG--stats do sometime paint a picture.

But usually they don’t more than the superficial. Pesce has an underated offensive game at times. He can carry out of his zone, he makes solid passes and can threaten by grabbing a good lane driving the net on occasion. His shot scares no one. His solid passes aren’t that creative or skillful so he really isn’t the greatest option on a pp, and he isn’t a dance along the line kind of skater to make up for the things he lacks.

How many goals has pp2 scored? Usually pp1 starts and they are given a hefty amount of time before getting off. Many pp’s I see Dougie gets on the ice with 45 seconds left and they’re lucky to set it up once and get a couple of looks. The lineup has been all over the place on that forward unit, Slavin isn’t a natural over on his side. It’s not a productive unit, we don’t have enough skill forwards, and no righty to work the plays the way pp1 can. Williams on the second unit instead of being forced to be on the top one would help a ton. Thus the need for a top 6 righty.

Dougie shoots a lot. You can tell he’s being told to (and why not?). To get more assists guys have to bury the rebounds. That’s out of his control. He makes passes all the time, if guys don’t finish for him he can’t control that. It’s not like the others are consistently throwing bomb breakaway passes and that’s where the assists come from. They come from throwing pucks at the net that get buried as rebounds and cycles that guys peel out of the corner and bury. That’s not a sign of offensive brilliance. We play a dump and chase/cycle hit the point game. Whichever defensemen are out there with the guys grinding it out the best every night get the assists.

As for Pesce I’d give him a chance in Slavin’s spot for giggles. Slavin has grown into it and has gotten some points but he’s just not dangerous back there. Bean would be very helpful on pp2.

 

[SaskCanesFan]

Faulk fits way better the way his spot is being used on PP1.

You can design a PP where Hamilton is the better option, but the one they run for the first unit isn’t it.

Faulk’s short passes are quick and on the tape. Who scores more goals with a big point shot gets the attention, but the quick accurate puck movement is the key to the Canes PowerPlay success from what I’ve seen. And Faulk is much better than Slavin/Hamilton in that department.

I don't agree with this at all. Faulk makes quick 10 foot passes that keep the puck on the perimeter...yay I guess? It's not creating anything. Not to mention the amount of time he spends smashing shin pads.

Hamilton is miles better at making quick reads and passes to players that create chances. Slap passes, give and goes, finding guys back door through traffic, etc. Problem is he's the only guy capable of it so usually our own forwards are caught off guard. That's not on him. But replacing Faulk with Hamilton will in no way hurt the "quick accurate puck movement" that the Canes rely on.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Perhaps you're looking for the wrong kind of evidence -- the kind of evidence that fits your notion of what the coach should be doing.

As opposed to the kind of evidence that results in, you know, actual points.

As I said before, I'm really happy with where we are. But we can be better. It's apparent to me that Roddy decided early this year that each player needed to be better and more accountable, and on that alone, we would improve. He was certainly correct in that assessment. We have improved and it's a very good thing.

However, that doesn't mean we can't be even better. I'm of the opinion that "better" is a great step, but it's not enough. We can be "good" or even "excellent," by adjusting a few of the things that *haven't* improved by work ethic alone. Roddy has evidently decided that we're not good enough to walk and chew gum at the same time, which is his prerogative, of course. But if leaves me wondering, "what if?"

As for the difference between Faulk and Hamilton, I recall Faulk being much, much, much more active on the power play. I'm watching the Islanders/Wild game right now, and Spurgeon just scored a goal midway through the third (please, check out the highlight) that Faulk used to score. Faulk used to be available at the back door. He used to score on rebounds. He was active on the weak side. Now he just kinda stands at the top of the circles and fires away when the opportunity arises.

When Hamilton is on the ice, he creates problems for the defense. He's always moving. He may not be the fastest guy coming back after a turnover, but generally speaking, the Canes have responsible forwards so he can get away with it. I remember Faulk being more like that. He's just not active enough and it's making it way too easy on opposing PKs.