Sidney vs Mario

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Blue Bullet, Mar 30, 2005.

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  1. Blue Bullet

    Blue Bullet Registered User

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    I wanted to see how Sidney Crosby stacked up against the greatest player to ever come out of the QMJHL. Crosby is being hyped as the best player since Lemieux so I wanted to take a statistical look at their draft seasons.

    Mario Lemieux 1.90 GPG 2.13 APG 4.03 PPG
    Sidney Crosby 1.06 GPG 1.65 APG 2.71 PPG

    Clearly, there is a difference, but the QMJHL was averaging 5.01 goals per team in 1984 compared to 3.19 this season. Therefore, lets convert Lemieux's stats, as if the average goals per team was the same as 2005.

    Mario Lemieux 1.21 GPG 1.35 APG 2.56 PPG
    Sidney Crosby 1.06 GPG 1.65 APG 2.71 PPG

    Therefore, Crosby actually ends up with a higher PPG than Lemieux. Lemieux seems to be the better goal scorer, while Crosby racks up more assists.

    The next item I wanted to look at was the goals per game of their individual team versus the league average. The number is the ratio of this.

    Rimouski 2005 1.49
    Laval 1984 1.50

    Therefore, you could argue that both teams were about even in scoring in relation to the rest of the league.

    The next item of interest is their production in relation to their team.

    Mario Lemieux Goals: 25 % Assists: 17 % Points: 20 %
    Sidney Crosby Goals: 20 % Assists: 18 % Points: 19 %

    They both accounted for about the same amount of their team's production. Lemieux accounted for more of his teams scoring than Crosby. This along with the higher GPG seems to show, as expected, that Lemieux is a more natural goal scorer than Crosby.

    The last item, I wanted to look at was how much better they were in PPG in relation to the next highest scorer on the team.

    Mario Lemieux 1.47
    Sidney Crosby 1.61

    Crosby has a slight lead in this department but nothing significant.

    So looking purely on stats, Crosby's 2005 season seems to be very similar to that of Lemieux's 1984 season. They match up almost in every category. If anything, this proves that Crosby does have the potential to be mentioned in the same breath as other greats such as Gretzky or Lemieux. Whether, he does or does not is yet to be seen.

    For those people interested this is how other high draft picks from the QMJHL match up using the converted PPG:

    Pat LaFontaine 1.97
    Alexandre Daigle 1.87
    Dale Hawerchuk 1.72
    Vincent Lecavalier 1.70
    Pierre Turgeon 1.64
    Denis Savard 1.57
     
  2. Don'tcry4mejanhrdina

    Don'tcry4mejanhrdina Registered User

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  3. Frolov 6'3

    Frolov 6'3 Unregistered User

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    Great effort though.
     
  4. Jacob

    Jacob Registered User

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    It's settled then, Crosby is better than Lemieux.
     
  5. Green Star

    Green Star Seggy #91

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    Crosby is not better than Lemieux. But I think the guy is comparing them as junior player, not a junior Crosby to a prime Lemieux in NHL or something like that. As far as junior go I absolutely think Crosby can be mention to the Greztky and the Lemieux. And who know, give Crosby 3-5 years and he might can be mention with Gretzky and Lemieux as NHL player.
     
  6. Masao

    Masao Registered User

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    In his last junior season Lemieux was also older than Crosby. Lemieux turned 18 in October of his last QMJHL season
     
  7. Pepper

    Pepper Registered User

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    I think it's safe to say that based on that statistical evidence Crosby is better than both Gretzky, Orr and Lemieux combined.
     
  8. Aethon

    Aethon 12 Axes

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    Before even mentioning Super Mario.....I would compare him to Pat Lafontaine

    Pat 's Numbers
    1982-83 Verdun Juniors QMJHL 70 104 130 234 10 15 11 24 35 4


    They're both 5.10 and 180 as well
     
  9. Jaded-Fan

    Jaded-Fan Registered User

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    In related news, I think that Aaron Rodgers, the Quarterback from Cal likely to be the first pick in the NFL draft next month, is definately already better than Marino, Manning, Staubach, Elway and Bradshaw combined don't you? He went to college, they went to college. He did well, they did well. You would have to be an idiot to conclude otherwise.
     
  10. fedorov_jr

    fedorov_jr Registered User

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    why does everyone have to rip the guys who do statistical comparisons? he didnt say that crosby would be better than lemieux at an NHL level, he just tried to give some of us who dont know the difference between the junior leagues over the past couple decades a better idea as to how the offensive productions compare....

    i'm no crosby fan, but i like knowing that his point levels do or dont compare to some of the other big years offensively from the Q over the past 20 years
     
  11. Tb0ne

    Tb0ne Registered User

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    I agree with fedorov there.

    It's merely a statistical comparison and a well thought out one as well.
     
  12. Squeaky

    Squeaky Registered User

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    Yeah, no reason to rip the guy, I thought this was pretty well written, and fairly interesting. Sure, stats mean very little, just take a gander at how great Daigle did in his last year, but I still enjoyed the post.
     
  13. Form and Substance

    Form and Substance Registered User

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    Yeah great job. We'll just wait and see.
     
  14. Onion Boy

    Onion Boy Registered User

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    Nobody said he was. Then again, on what grounds can you say he isn't or won't be?

    P.S. Thanks for the data Blue Bullet. :handclap:
     
  15. Luigi Lemieux

    Luigi Lemieux Registered User

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    I'd be very happy if another player came along that was as good as Mario or Wayne. Your statistical analysis is good and shows their relative dominance. I see nothing wrong with this post. I just don't like when people say Crosby has better hockey sense and vision than Mario Frikkin Lemieux based on junior numbers.

    edit - even though this is a good analysis, it doesn't mean it's perfect. there's no way of knowing how much Lemieux's numbers would drop if he played in the Q today. He has a distinct size advantage over Sidney which would definitely make today's game a bit easier for him.
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2005
  16. Brock

    Brock Registered User

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    Very interesting to see how they stack up. Thanks for the work. It's really astonishing how close they are with the adjusted statistics.

    On a side note some people on this site make me laugh.
     
  17. Blue Bullet

    Blue Bullet Registered User

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    Thanks to the people who understand what I was getting at. I was wondering, statistically, how Crosby compared to the other top picks from the QMJHL. After looking into it a little, it seemed that the only player that dominated at the level Crosby did this season, was Lemieux. I am glad to see that some people understood I was only comparing them at the junior level and not looking at potential.

    Now if you want my opinion on whether Crosby will be as good as Gretzky or Lemieux, the answer would be no. I just don't see him being at that level. Gretzky had phenomenol vision and anticipation while Lemieux was a 5'10 player in a 6'4 frame and was such a natural goal scorer. Crosby could end up a notch below these two.

    I was actually thinking of comparing him to LaFontaine at first but I think Crosby could turn out better. I think he's as talented offensively as Lafontaine but Crosby is stronger on the puck and along the wall. He reminds of a mix between Forsberg and Kariya/LaFontaine.
     
  18. Le Golie

    Le Golie ...

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    It always baffles me when people react so stupidly to a thread like this. It's a well researched and interesting read. Nothing more. Yet people jump at a chance to rip it. :shakehead

    It's those same people that think that in the 30 years of modern hockey that we have seen, two players will be unmatched by all that follow in the next few thousand years of hockey. Guess what, there will be more Lemieux's and there will be more Gretzky's. It's foolish to think otherwise.
     
  19. Phillip The Third

    Phillip The Third ... line center ?

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    He compared Mario's 18-19 year old season to Crosby's 17-18 year old season.. I'm sorry to have to say that, as he put some effort into this, but it's completely irrelevant.
     
  20. Green Star

    Green Star Seggy #91

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    Yes that is my thought on Crosby. I think Crosby is a LaFontaine/Dionne with better physical and defensive play.
     
  21. cagney

    cagney cdojdmccjajgejncjaba

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    That's the first thing that popped into my head. Crosby was born on August 7th while Lemieux was born October 5th. Therefore, Lemieux's second year in the Q would be better for comparison to Crosby's recent season as the difference in age would be only two months, as opposed to 14 months.
     
  22. Sykie

    Sykie Registered User

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    Absolutly right.

    And "E = CH²" is right too, I was about to say it. If you want a fair comparaison, you must take the second year of both players, where they had the same age.

    And even there, I'm not sure it's that fair, because everyone forget an important point : The overall talent have greatly improved in the Q since the 80s. When fans are comparing stats of the 80s and stats and the 2000, it always surprise me because hockey have vastly improved since then, and it's especially the case with amator leagues like the Q.
     
  23. pei fan

    pei fan Registered User

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    Actually it's Mario's 18 year old season to Sidney's 17 year old season and as long
    as you understand that it's relevant.Good job bluebullet but let me warn you.
    Showing that a 17 year old Sidney is as dominant as a 18 year old Mario could
    create a firestorm.This is afterall HF Boards(aka The Church of Mario)and such
    behaviour as yours can be considered blasphemous.
    Anyway,your sin can be forgiven my son just say 5 Hail Mario's before you go to
    bed:
    Hail Mario full of grace(and inate hockeysense)
    The Lord is with thee(heck you are god)
    Blessed art thou among hockey players
    In the past and forevermore. ;)
     
  24. tom_servo

    tom_servo Registered User

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    What is with this ridiculous formatting, anyway?
     
  25. monster_bertuzzi

    monster_bertuzzi registered user

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    Thanks for clearing that up! Crosby is now for sure better than Lemieux.

    I look more at Brad Richards 180 point season and Simon Gamache's 185 point season to measure how good Crosby will be.
     
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