Post-Game Talk: Shooting Stars, Jets win 5-1

[raideralex99]

Not to take anything away from Helle because he has been spectacular in the games the Jets haven't played as well but...

I think a lot of this has to do with Bones system or at least not PoMos system. Players have defined roles defensively that they're familiar with, arguably in a system style they've been playing much of their career. PoMos system may or may not work theoretically but it never got full achievement that he likely wanted here and without that uptake or understanding by the players it often failed miserably leaving opposing players wide open or creating substantial imbalance on the ice.

Couple that with defensive responsibility we've not seen from some players in their own zone for some time (cough*Scheifele*cough) and we're ending up with so much more help than Helle has seen since probably 2017-18 or thereabouts. I'm not sure Hellebuyck has ever really been Hellesuck, moreso it's been Hellehungouttodrybyshittysystemsandhecanonlydosomuch.

Give a Vezina caliber goaltender a modicum of support? Solid approach.

Also don’t forgot your first newborn gets a lot of attention and Hellebuyck was not mentally ready to play that many games.

 

[Jet]

It is all about sample size. A lot of people really don't seem to understand this issue. They acknowledge that this stat or the other stat is not reliable in small sample sizes - and then they use it in tiny sample sizes.

When a stat relies on volume of data to make it useful it is often not just that the stat becomes less reliable, has longer error bars, but that it is completely useless in small samples. +/- OTOH, does not benefit much from even huge samples. It is just a bad stat.

I'm sorry, but that chart and xgf/ga suffers from the same data integrity issues as +/-.

You could clearly see that in last night's chart. Extrapolating that data isn't going to fix it.

Sure, if a player has an off night and that chart demonstrates that, you shouldn't conclude that they are a bad player.

However, if the chart is clearly exposing the flaws in the data, no amount of data is going to fix that.

Garbage in garbage out.

His good plays have been many but quiet and his bad plays have been few but loud. I think that's been skewing some perception. Overall I think he's been really good. Not as safe as he was last season but the defensive unit as a whole is playing a different game and there will be mistakes as they transition to that game.

I still like Samberg alot and on the whole I feel like he's been solid. I thought he was the weakest jet last night though

 

[wraithsonwings]

I wouldn't be surprised if they had multiple jackets that they periodically rotate and dry clean.

From your lips to the Hockey Gods' ears.

 

[larmex99]

Dillon has 3" and 25 lbs on Dellandrea. It was a mismatch.

That is not mismatch material imo. We can both name a lot of guys who were small and nobody wanted to mess with them. Neither of these guys are goons either. Actually Dillon isn’t much of a fighter. I though the kid he fought did a good job.

 

[voyageur]

Bottom 6 is looking great. Harkins is a hound and it's very encouraging that Bowness saw him as the better option over Toninato so quickly.

With things working well the way that they are, maybe Bowness builds another scoring line around Ehlers when him and Barron are back? Have a less noted offensive player on each of the 3 scoring lines a la Appleton, spread the top 6 over 3 lines, then when offensive is needed stack the top 6.

Which two players would come out of the lineup for that to happen? Harkins is playing well, I think he knows what he has to do to stay in the lineup. Defensively he's still a questionable player I think. At best when Ehlers comes back I think Harkins stays up with the team, over Toninato. Might keep that job for awhile, as I think Barron won't be back with the Jets until January, being eligible to get back up to speed with the Moose.

Probably get Sak-Lowry-Appleton as a checking line, and AJF-Gus-Gagner as a 4th line.

Appleton's had 2 good offensive games, but I think otherwise he's been very quiet on Scheifele's line, maybe negating offense, Ehlers will make that a top line in the league.

It is ingriguing though, to think what Ehlers could do for Gustafsson's offensive game, if the Jets wanted to go that way.

I still think the 2nd line is set because of the board work Dubois and Wheeler do, Perfetti isn't a strong board player, and these two help him out a lot.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm sorry, but that chart and xgf/ga suffers from the same data integrity issues as +/-.

You could clearly see that in last night's chart. Extrapolating that data isn't going to fix it.

Sure, if a player has an off night and that chart demonstrates that, you shouldn't conclude that they are a bad player.

However, if the chart is clearly exposing the flaws in the data, no amount of data is going to fix that.

Garbage in garbage out.


I still like Samberg alot and on the whole I feel like he's been solid. I thought he was the weakest jet last night though

Getting a bigger data set is not about extrapolating. That would assume the data keeps following the same pattern. In that case the small sample would be as good as the large one.

I haven't seen that chart - but I agree that those charts suffer from the small sample issue.

I didn't see a weak link for the Jets last night. Not that there weren't a few bad plays. I didn't always note whose fault they were. I was busy noticing the good reactions to them that prevented any harm being done.

That was the first really good thing I saw in last night's game. Particularly in the 1st, there were several gaffes that I expected either a Helle super save or a Dallas goal. We got neither because of good team play. One guy or another managed to not only get in the play but managed to completely break it up and prevent a SOG, or even a shot attempt. And it was as likely to be a F as a Dman.

Maybe those were Samberg's bad plays, IDK. When I did notice him, he was making good plays. I don't think a mistake or 2 in a game makes a bad game for a player if they are offset by other good play, especially for a rookie. That makes only 21 games for Samberg and they aren't like 21 consecutive games either. I think he is in the process of passing Stanley. Maybe not quite there yet but he is no worse than neck and neck. That said, I would also like to see more of Capobianco.

 

[Gm0ney]

That is not mismatch material imo. We can both name a lot of guys who were small and nobody wanted to mess with them. Neither of these guys are goons either. Actually Dillon isn’t much of a fighter. I though the kid he fought did a good job.

With Ehlers out, the Jets don't have a lot to fall back on when it comes to scraps...

 

[WolfgangPuck]

What happened to the Jets?
It’s been years since I seen full game dominance against a good team
give that game a pretty 5/5 young and sexy Heather Locklears

 

[Inanna]

Quickest ignore I've ever done

I thought Sipowick was the poster everybody was quickest to ignore.

 

[Stumbledore]

I don't really care who the center is but Perfetti needs a goal scorer on his line.

Wheeler is tied for 3rd on the team in goal scoring.

Only Schief and PLD are ahead of Wheeler in scoring and they're both of the first line so your logic makes no sense.

 

[larmex99]

With Ehlers out, the Jets don't have a lot to fall back on when it comes to scraps...

Yeah, the Dutchman can really throw ‘em…..

 

[Revolver]

Also wanted to give a shout-out to Axel F.

 

[voyageur]

Another random thought: I feel like the high tempo high aggression game helps players' decision making overall. They need to read and make plays in tight quarters instead of falling back into formation now and I feel like that's just good practice for making plays when the other team does the same. Jets used to fall apart when they played against teams that forechecked hard even if they weren't the most talented. Still fell apart against Vegas mind you but the change won't come overnight.

How they practice will also factor into this. If Maurice had his defending unit fall back and his offensive guys had all the room in the world to operate during practice, it makes sense that they had problems with an active forecheck for so many years. If Bowness is practicing at a higher tempo and with more pressure on the offensive units then they'll get more practice making plays when there's pressure on them and I feel like that's starting to show. Last night was some of the best passing I've seen in years from this team.


Quickest ignore I've ever done

I'd like to see someone track how many of Pionk's first passes turn into quick offensive zone transition. That's one of the most notable things to me.

Interesting that you discuss forechecking, because that seemed to be one of the first things Bowness worked on with this team. Angles to take after getting in on the forecheck. The forecheck now seems to be accompanied by defensemen who instantly pinch down to support anything up the wall. It's much more aggressive. There were a couple of pucks that got behind the defense in the neutral zone, but were cleaned up rather nice. Probably my favourite change in this team this year is how little space they give the opposition to move the puck or enter the zone. There's definitely more pace in how the team plays.

 

[Eyeseeing]

I thought Sipowick was the poster everybody was quickest to ignore.

Unfortunately he won't see this one
I don't ignore anyone, I just shun them

 

[surixon]

Wheeler is tied for 3rd on the team in goal scoring.

Only Schief and PLD are ahead of Wheeler in scoring and they're both of the first line so your logic makes no sense.

I mean that isn't a high bar considering it's a 20 goal pace over 82 games. I would think if we are talking a good goal scorer we are talking 30 plus goals. The second line scoring enough as all three are pacing 20 plus goals but you'd like to see someone with a bit more natural finish with a playmaker like Cole. But I'm quite fine with the lines for now, they are working better then I thought they would.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That is not mismatch material imo. We can both name a lot of guys who were small and nobody wanted to mess with them. Neither of these guys are goons either. Actually Dillon isn’t much of a fighter. I though the kid he fought did a good job.

You call that a good job?
Good for him for standing up but he took an awful pounding, before and after losing his helmet.

 

[Jet]

I thought Sipowick was the poster everybody was quickest to ignore.

No way, we love sip! He keeps our players accountable

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Which two players would come out of the lineup for that to happen? Harkins is playing well, I think he knows what he has to do to stay in the lineup. Defensively he's still a questionable player I think. At best when Ehlers comes back I think Harkins stays up with the team, over Toninato. Might keep that job for awhile, as I think Barron won't be back with the Jets until January, being eligible to get back up to speed with the Moose.

Probably get Sak-Lowry-Appleton as a checking line, and AJF-Gus-Gagner as a 4th line.

Appleton's had 2 good offensive games, but I think otherwise he's been very quiet on Scheifele's line, maybe negating offense, Ehlers will make that a top line in the league.

It is ingriguing though, to think what Ehlers could do for Gustafsson's offensive game, if the Jets wanted to go that way.

I still think the 2nd line is set because of the board work Dubois and Wheeler do, Perfetti isn't a strong board player, and these two help him out a lot.

I still think they need to swap Perfetti and Connor. Scheifele needs the playmaker, even when Ehlers gets back. Don't want Ehlers to revert to passing and deferring like he used to. He needs to keep on shooting. Connor hasn't scored a single goal against a goalie in regulation time this year. He had a career year with Dubois last year.

 

[Jet]

I mean that isn't a high bar considering it's a 20 goal pace over 82 games. I would think if we are talking a good goal scorer we are talking 30 plus goals. The second line scoring enough as all three are pacing 20 plus goals but you'd like to see someone with a bit more natural finish with a playmaker like Cole. But I'm quite fine with the lines for now, they are working better then I thought they would.

We know though that Wheeler tends to start slow. I figure he'll outperform his current pace.

I still want to see Connor with Dubie and wheels when ehlers comes back. I think 91 27 and 55 could do very well together

 

[voyageur]

I still think they need to swap Perfetti and Connor. Scheifele needs the playmaker, even when Ehlers gets back. Don't want Ehlers to revert to passing and deferring like he used to. He needs to keep on shooting. Connor hasn't scored a single goal against a goalie in regulation time this year. He had a career year with Dubois last year.

Did you see the pass Connor put on Scheifele's stick last night? Connor, Ehlers, Scheifele, they might all get cast as shooters, but they can all make plays too. I'm not the least bit worried about KC. He could score 35 in the next 70. Maybe he only scores 30 this year. But he's still a threat on the ice. From watching preseason and the Rags game they can do some pretty special things with virtually no room to manoeuvre, an absolute nightmare for opposing teams to cover.

2nd line has been consistent, probably the most consistent line on the team. Perfetti playing with Dubois and Wheeler keeps him from having to go into the corners of the ice, except to track pucks, which is where he will get injured. Team has a duty to protect him, and his growth, both physically and as a player.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Did you see the pass Connor put on Scheifele's stick last night? Connor, Ehlers, Scheifele, they might all get cast as shooters, but they can all make plays too. I'm not the least bit worried about KC. He could score 35 in the next 70. Maybe he only scores 30 this year. But he's still a threat on the ice. From watching preseason and the Rags game they can do some pretty special things with virtually no room to manoeuvre, an absolute nightmare for opposing teams to cover.

2nd line has been consistent, probably the most consistent line on the team. Perfetti playing with Dubois and Wheeler keeps him from having to go into the corners of the ice, except to track pucks, which is where he will get injured. Team has a duty to protect him, and his growth, both physically and as a player.

Yes, I know they all can make plays. But they are primarily shooters. 2nd line can all score goals, but they are primarily playmakers, especially Perfetti.

I can see wanting to keep Perfetti with physical Dubois, but I suspect Perfetti is accustomed to playing against bigger, stronger players.

I think Perfetti playing with 2 quick firing reflex players like Scheif and Ehlers would get a crazy number of assists.

 

[larmex99]

You call that a good job?
Good for him for standing up but he took an awful pounding, before and after losing his helmet.

You bet. I enjoyed every minute of it. He didn’t lose because of his size though. He lost because he was a crappy fighter, or because he underestimate his opponent. Either way, he made a bad choice.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You bet. I enjoyed every minute of it. He didn’t lose because of his size though. He lost because he was a crappy fighter, or because he underestimate his opponent. Either way, he made a bad choice.

I can't argue with that. But he should have found a way to go down sooner.

 

[Jets 31]

Once the analytics and HFboards-darling Ehlers comes back, everything will be enhanced. More problems than not will be solved. He drives a line like nobody's business; everyone has to carry Kyle Connor. No one is better than "exiting the defensive zone" and "entering the offensive zone" than Ehlers. Most underrated Jet, Ehlers.

He never disappears for long stretches of time, he's a phenominal two-way player, he's an excellent playoff performer, he'll someday crack the 30 goal and 70 point barrier; he's not just another blend of Pat Elyniuk and Nelson Emerson.

We're in Year 8 with him, it's time for all of the pretenders to get out of the way, and let Ehlers reach his full potential.

I'd love to see Ehlers drive that Scheifele/Perfetti line; 3 centers. Ehlers is so good in the trenches, along the board, doing all the little things necessary to winning. Dropping the gloves every 2nd year, taking dives every other game, the things that produce winning ways.

The guy's phenominal!

Everyone has to carry Connor????

 

[Jets 31]

The Jets came out flying yesterday and the score was 0-0 , then Dallas scores to go up 1-0 and it didn't faze the Jets they just kept playing hard and win 5-1 . I didn't see that last season at all, they would have just faded and lost the game. This is a different team this season thanks to coaching.