Rumor: Sharks. Barabanov working on new deal

[LadyStanley]

I like it.

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[Alaskanice]

He fits well on team teal. Keep him here for a few years.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Obviously depends on the money and term...seems like the Sharks have a lot of guys coming in the next few years...

 

[Hodge]

He fits well on team teal. Keep him here for a few years.

He fits well on a line with the two best players on the team and is useless anywhere else in the lineup.

That's fine for $1 million but not for $3-4 million on a 2-3 year deal. That has serious potential to end up looking like the forward version of the Radim Simek contract.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

The team themselves seem to be diagnosing which guys they want to play with and which ones they don’t.

Barbie works well with Hertl and Meier. Give the man what he wants within reason.

 

[sharski]

5 years, $30 million incoming

JW: "I haven't personally done the math, but I certainly expect us to be in compliance with the cap for years to come"

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

He fits well on a line with the two best players on the team and is useless anywhere else in the lineup.

That's fine for $1 million but not for $3-4 million on a 2-3 year deal. That has serious potential to end up looking like the forward version of the Radim Simek contract.

This has the potential to be worst post of the season.

How many 40 pt players that are at their ufa are making 1 million right now? He’s easily worth 3-4 on a 2-3 year deal.

 

[Cas]

Obviously depends on the money and term...seems like the Sharks have a lot of guys coming in the next few years...

If he's good and not too expensive, he's either worth keeping on the team, or worth someone trading for him. I'd expect something smaller than Labanc's contract, and if Labanc were a 45-point forward who wasn't a black hole defensively, we wouldn't have any trouble trading him.

The rumor before the trade deadline was something like $4M/3 yrs. I don't think that's an overpayment, though it'd be great to negotiate that down to something more like $3.5M (maybe earning dollars in CA is worth more than an equivalent figure in rubles in St. Petersburg).

 

[Hodge]

This has the potential to be worst post of the season.

How many 40 pt players that are at their ufa are making 1 million right now? He’s easily worth 3-4 on a 2-3 year deal.

How many UFAs have just one full season of NHL experience?

I'd offer him 1 year at around $2.5M. He can continue to pad his stats with Hertl and Meier, prove this season wasn't a fluke then cash in next summer with some other team.

 

[hohosaregood]

I think a $3m-$3.5m x 2yr deal is probably the fair deal. $4m is a little too rich for me and a long term deal wouldn't make sense to me either. He's mostly been stapled to Hertl, and has looked good there, but he hasn't really shown that he's a plug and play option to drive play everywhere else in the line up.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

This has the potential to be worst post of the season.

How many 40 pt players that are at their ufa are making 1 million right now? He’s easily worth 3-4 on a 2-3 year deal.

I don’t think we can afford to give Barabonov $3M+ and still fill the other holes in our lineup.

We need a top 6 winger better than Barabonov, a 3C, and a shut down RD more than we need Barabonov. I’m worried about this contract.

 

[TheBeard]

I think a $3m-$3.5m x 2yr deal is probably the fair deal. $4m is a little too rich for me and a long term deal wouldn't make sense to me either. He's mostly been stapled to Hertl, and has looked good there, but he hasn't really shown that he's a plug and play option to drive play everywhere else in the line up.

sounds right to me. 2 years at 3 per. He's either a bargain or an appropriately paid 2nd liner.

 

[TheBeard]

5 years, $30 million incoming

JW: "I haven't personally done the math, but I certainly expect us to be in compliance with the cap for years to come"

They're playing chess by constantly putting EK65 on Ir so when they need to in the future they can LTIR him and no one will bat an eyelash.

 

[Cas]

I don’t think we can afford to give Barabonov $3M+ and still fill the other holes in our lineup.

We need a top 6 winger better than Barabonov, a 3C, and a shut down RD more than we need Barabonov. I’m worried about this contract.

We basically can't afford a top six winger, a 3C, and a shutdown RD, even without Barabanov.

I eliminated Labanc, Simek, and Hill (assume they're traded with no money coming back, which is unrealistic), bought out Vlasic, resigned Ferraro, Dahlen, Gregor, and Kahkonen for a combined $7M, and that left cap space of $15,660,000 (give or take a couple hundred grand for the cheap contracts) for three significant players.

In theory, that should be enough, but in reality that's cutting it close and requires a lot of luck in moving out a few poorer contracts for nothing. Plus, in the end, you get a top six that is still weak (you're relying on two of Dahlen, Eklund, or Bordeleau to be legit top six forwards next year, which is probably unrealistic even if they might all have that potential).

Honestly, we might as well resign the guy we already know for significantly less than a better free agent would likely cost (what would a legit top six winger cost in free agency, $6M?).

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

How many UFAs have just one full season of NHL experience?

I'd offer him 1 year at around $2.5M. He can continue to pad his stats with Hertl and Meier, prove this season wasn't a fluke then cash in next summer with some other team.

I’m hoping he gets a 2-year deal at a reasonable cost. Pad stats or not, he adds an element that works well with the big 2.

I don’t think we can afford to give Barabonov $3M+ and still fill the other holes in our lineup.

We need a top 6 winger better than Barabonov, a 3C, and a shut down RD more than we need Barabonov. I’m worried about this contract.

I think that’ll all come down to when they finally make a ruling on Kane violating his contract multiple times. If they eliminate that 7 mil off the cap, they can re-sign him easily without much worry.

 

[Alaskanice]

There will also be other contracts coming off. It’s not much but it will help. I also believe a player will be traded. That will also help.?

 

[OrrNumber4]

I’m hoping he gets a 2-year deal at a reasonable cost. Pad stats or not, he adds an element that works well with the big 2.


I think that’ll all come down to when they finally make a ruling on Kane violating his contract multiple times. If they eliminate that 7 mil off the cap, they can re-sign him easily without much worry.

Is there a more ineffable and tenuous thing in sports than chemistry? We've seen chemistry suddenly die; lines that were working get figured out. A shorter-term deal for Barabanov makes more sense given that context...

 

[Hodge]

Is there a more ineffable and tenuous thing in sports than chemistry? We've seen chemistry suddenly die; lines that were working get figured out. A shorter-term deal for Barabanov makes more sense given that context...

Exactly. Even as a Barabanov "hater" I can admit Meier-Hertl-Barabanov has been a killer line but his results with any other line combination (including when he's playing with just Hertl or just Meier) have been abysmal. If the chemistry wears off for some reason or the Sharks simply need to break that line up due to injury or depth issues Barabanov immediately becomes a liability.

No other team in the NHL would even consider playing Barabanov on their top line and I'm sure he and his agent know that especially given his experience with the Leafs. The Sharks have some leverage here and they need to use it to get him on another cheap one year deal.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Exactly. Even as a Barabanov "hater" I can admit Meier-Hertl-Barabanov has been a killer line but his results with any other line combination (including when he's playing with just Hertl or just Meier) have been abysmal. If the chemistry wears off for some reason or the Sharks simply need to break that line up due to injury or depth issues Barabanov immediately becomes a liability.

Really? Are there numbers to back this up?

 

[Hodge]

Really? Are there numbers to back this up?

Meier-Hertl-Barabanov (369:09 TOI): 53.4 CF%, 54.5 FF%, 55.5 SF%, 64.1 GF%, 53.6 xGF%
X-Hertl-Barabanov (394:12 TOI): 44.6 CF%, 43.6 FF%, 43.0 SF%, 48.4 GF%, 41.7 xGF%
Meier-X-Barabanov (62:45 TOI): 40.1 CF%, 41.8 FF%, 46.0 SF%, 50.0 GF%, 46.2 xGF%
X-X-Barabanov (143:10 TOI): 30.8 CF%, 31.2 FF%, 30.0 SF%, 25.0 GF%, 31.9 xGF%

All numbers 5v5. Credit to Natural Stat Trick's Line Tool.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

We basically can't afford a top six winger, a 3C, and a shutdown RD, even without Barabanov.

I eliminated Labanc, Simek, and Hill (assume they're traded with no money coming back, which is unrealistic), bought out Vlasic, resigned Ferraro, Dahlen, Gregor, and Kahkonen for a combined $7M, and that left cap space of $15,660,000 (give or take a couple hundred grand for the cheap contracts) for three significant players.

In theory, that should be enough, but in reality that's cutting it close and requires a lot of luck in moving out a few poorer contracts for nothing. Plus, in the end, you get a top six that is still weak (you're relying on two of Dahlen, Eklund, or Bordeleau to be legit top six forwards next year, which is probably unrealistic even if they might all have that potential).

Honestly, we might as well resign the guy we already know for significantly less than a better free agent would likely cost (what would a legit top six winger cost in free agency, $6M?).

I agree that it’s pretty much impossible to address all 3 of our biggest needs. Can we address 2 of them after signing Barabonov? It all depends on what happens with Kane and what futures they give up to reclaim cap space. (ie buyout penalty for Vlasic and/or Labanc, draft pick to trade Simek). Any cap space they use for Barabonov is money they can’t use to address the bigger issues. That’s why I would be hesitant to sign Barabonov.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

Meier-Hertl-Barabanov (369:09 TOI): 53.4 CF%, 54.5 FF%, 55.5 SF%, 64.1 GF%, 53.6 xGF%
X-Hertl-Barabanov (394:12 TOI): 44.6 CF%, 43.6 FF%, 43.0 SF%, 48.4 GF%, 41.7 xGF%
Meier-X-Barabanov (62:45 TOI): 40.1 CF%, 41.8 FF%, 46.0 SF%, 50.0 GF%, 46.2 xGF%
X-X-Barabanov (143:10 TOI): 30.8 CF%, 31.2 FF%, 30.0 SF%, 25.0 GF%, 31.9 xGF%

All numbers 5v5. Credit to Natural Stat Trick's Line Tool.

What does Meier - Couture - Barabonov look like?

 

[Hodge]

What does Meier - Couture - Barabonov look like?

They've only spent 38:19 together but 45.6 CF%, 46.8 FF%, 52.6 SF%, 42.9 GF%, 51.5 xGF%

It's a very small sample size and I'm open to the possibility that could be a decent line if given time to build chemistry but I'm not sure who that leaves for Hertl to play with. Eklund and Labanc?

 

[CupfortheSharks]

They've only spent 38:19 together but 45.6 CF%, 46.8 FF%, 52.6 SF%, 42.9 GF%, 51.5 xGF%

It's a very small sample size and I'm open to the possibility that could be a decent line if given time to build chemistry but I'm not sure who that leaves for Hertl to play with. Eklund and Labanc?

Fair enough. I notice x-Hertl- Barabonov didn’t produce very good numbers. That supports what I see. Barabonov is a good complimentary 3rd guy on a line but not strong enough to drive a line, even with Hertl.

 

[Hodge]

Fair enough. I notice x-Hertl- Barabonov didn’t produce very good numbers. That supports what I see. Barabonov is a good complimentary 3rd guy on a line but not strong enough to drive a line, even with Hertl.

This is one case where the stats definitely line up with the eye test for me too. They should just let him walk and use the cap space on a younger more versatile top six forward instead. Edmonton is vulnerable to a Jesse Puljujarvi offer sheet at the 2nd round pick compensation tier as an example.