Post-Game Talk: Sens 6 Oilers 1

[Jumptheshark]

I think I'm going to use the ignore list for my sanity

going to be fun here for the next few days

 

[Soundwave]

I don't really think we have "holes". The Taylor Hall Oilers that didn't have a single d-man as good as Kris Russell ... that team had holes.

This iteration has talent on virtually every forward line, more than you would expect at that spot.

Line 1 - Generational/Next Crosby + RW who is in that Kopitar/Getzlaf tier

Line 2 - No. 1 overall center, former All-Star, LW power forward, hockey's premiere power forward post Iginla.

Line 3 - No.5 overall Ryan Strome + Jussi Jokinen (1 year removed from a 60 point season)

Line 4 - Centered by Mark Letestu, who was like 5th in playoff scoring through the 2nd round, lol.

Even the D ... there are 3 should be decent D -- Klefbom, Larsson, Russell, and Nurse has actually be playing great on top of that. With Nurse's progress we should have 4 solid D-men back there, which is what most teams really get by on.

This is about talent not playing up to their talent in large part and the Oilers having some bizarre situation where 2 lines can never be hot at the same time. Never. Ever. Ever.

 

[GodPucker]

Man I wish some of the rejects we drafted before did something. Seems like RNH needs a crazy burst of energy to get a chance. When he does get a chance I'm like woah... Standards are so low.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

No right wingers, no bottom 6 depth, no decent bottom pairing defensemen, no backup goalie....

Nope, no holes.

 

[nexttothemoon]

KY is already leading the team in Shots/60, individual high danger chances/60, and 2nd in individual scoring chances/60 behind McDavid.

Small sample but I believe he's going to get better and better as he gets used to the NHL pace and grind. He's going to develop into a top 6 (if not top 3) NHL player this season right in front of our eyes.

He won't go back to Junior... no point as this is the level that he will improve and challenge himself in.

 

[KarmaPolice]

We never have two lines scoring at once. It's like the universe will cease to function if it ever happens.

At this point I think we could have 10 1st overalls, and we'd find some way to only have 1 scoring line.

LOL, even that Draisaitl performance, if I told you before the playoffs Drai would go Animal Mode on his own line in the playoffs you would say "awesome, and then McDavid's line is gonna kill it too!" ... but even that didn't happen, lol.

I dunno even know what it is anymore. Toronto can have JVR and Kadri improve massively with their core, but for us, we have to smile and accept that RNH/Eberle/Lucic are basically shadows of their former selves.

I think really they will have to wait for Yamamoto to develop ala Draisaitl and then we will maybe have the team we think we should have. We're supposed to be this offensive juggernaut but we're really not, and it's largely because we don't have a JVR/Kadri. We HAVE those players on talent, yes, but our versions of those players don't really play the same way at all.

We really have to hope that both Yams and Jesse are NHL ready within the next season or so, and both are contributing on the RW. And hope that our D is healthy -- especially Klefbom, Sekera, Larsson and Nurse. It would really help if we could pick up a Dman like Green, but we'll see. That might be too cost prohibitive -- both in assets to acquire him and cap space to retain him. Calgary got 4 goals tonight from their D. Production from our D has been an issue, and it's nothing new -- two season ago, our D finished bottom 3 in total points scored. Last year it improved thanks to healthy seasons from Klefbom and Sekera -- both of whom scored 35 points or more, and Larsson also chipped in almost 20 points (19 to be exact). Now we basically only have one 30+ point Dman in our lineup. I don't think any other team in the league is in that position except Las Vegas. I hope we can make a trade for Green at the deadline if it looks like we have a shot at anything. But production from our D has been an issue, and I'm not sure we can count on that to get better as long as Sekera is out, and that's pretty scary to me. Our only long-shot is that Simpson clicks in the NHL or that Auvitu finds his game and can contribute offensively, aside from Klefbom producing, which I think is just a matter of time (as long as he's healthy).

 

[Soundwave]

No right wingers, no bottom 6 depth, no decent bottom pairing defensemen, no backup goalie....

Nope, no holes.

Every team has holes in that context. Find me a team that has great center, LW, RW, and great D depth right down to their no.6 guy AND has an elite level goalie.

You have to have some holes somewhere, hell even the 80s Oilers were kinda thin after that top six and top 4 D. We have a Crosby AND a Getzlaf/Kopitar on our 1st line. We have a no.1 overall and big name power forward on our second line. We have a no.5 overall and a recent 60 point scorer on our third line. We have a guy who was 5th in NHL playoff scoring through the 2nd round on our 4th line. This is not a dearth of talent.

We still have a talent on each forward line that I would say is unusual/"luxurious" for most teams to have (see above).

For whatever reason we never have scoring depth. Hasn't happened ever since 07-08, that was the last time I can clearly remember us having two lines that were simultaneously scoring at a high pace (Gagner line and Glencross line). And not just scoring like gravy goals/points, I'm talking making a real big impact on the flow of the game.

 

[Soundwave]

KY is already leading the team in Shots/60, individual high danger chances/60, and 2nd in individual scoring chances/60 behind McDavid.

This is simultaneously exciting and sad, lol.

 

[yababy]

"LOL, even that Draisaitl performance, if I told you before the playoffs Drai would go Animal Mode on his own line in the playoffs"

You should examine "animal more again. Draisaitl had 2 games where he scored the bulk of his playoff points. In one of those games it was Adam Larsson providing the drive behind the goals. In the other game Draisaitl had assists that were goals off rebounds from the goalie.
Honestly, from these 2 games he earned a contract 2m over what he would have been paid without the 2 games. Quite a payday...16m extra for 2 exceptional games...that's 8 million per.
If you don't believe me go back and watch the highlights

 

[Soundwave]

"LOL, even that Draisaitl performance, if I told you before the playoffs Drai would go Animal Mode on his own line in the playoffs"

You should examine "animal more again. Draisaitl had 2 games where he scored the bulk of his playoff points. In one of those games it was Adam Larsson providing the drive behind the goals. In the other game Draisaitl had assists that were goals off rebounds from the goalie.
Honestly, from these 2 games he earned a contract 2m over what he would have been paid without the 2 games. Quite a payday...16m extra for 2 exceptional games...that's 8 million per.
If you don't believe me go back and watch the highlights

Eh I think it was an overpay of maybe 500k. He was never taking less than 8 ... 5-6 million less than McDavid is ridiculous.

Fact of the matter is though he was what? 2nd or 3rd in playoff NHL scoring through the 2nd round? I mean any player is going to have their stock rise because of that. And that's how you score in the playoffs, 80% of the goals are garbage.

You think he was only going to get 6.5 when Lucic/RNH/Eberle earned 6 for the season they turned in last year? No way.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Forward depth is a bit of an illusion... if you look at the advanced stats and look at how the team's forwards have done over the past 3 years in terms of both their offensive and defensive numbers taking into account zone starts, quality of teammates and opposition... the overall forward depth isn't so hot.

Bottom 6 is strewn with a bunch of less than average NHL players and borderline AHL caliber players... they needed to keep improving this season or at a minimum play as well as last season. Any collective regression meant the team would definitely be worse up front than last season where many players over achieved (and the team stayed very healthy).

Not saying that regression will happen this year, but it certainly could.

The top end talent is just that... very top heavy and it gets very thin quickly.

This is taking into account the forwards abilities at both ends of the ice and zone usage. As soon as some players are forced to play less PP time and face more defensive zone time, their numbers can suffer dramatically.

 

[KarmaPolice]

"LOL, even that Draisaitl performance, if I told you before the playoffs Drai would go Animal Mode on his own line in the playoffs"

You should examine "animal more again. Draisaitl had 2 games where he scored the bulk of his playoff points. In one of those games it was Adam Larsson providing the drive behind the goals. In the other game Draisaitl had assists that were goals off rebounds from the goalie.
Honestly, from these 2 games he earned a contract 2m over what he would have been paid without the 2 games. Quite a payday...16m extra for 2 exceptional games...that's 8 million per.
If you don't believe me go back and watch the highlights

I actually agree, and if it were me as the GM, I would've held at 7.5m max, though I'd make my 'final' offer 7m over 8 years until their demands went down, then go to 7.5 to 'sweeten' the deal. If he wanted to hold out, fine. Sign him later in the season when it's more important, anyway. Besides, most young players in that situation eventually fold and sign -- there's just too much money at stake; and at that age they don't have much leverage. I just highly doubt Drai would've held out when he's looking at 7.5m over 8 years. That's a LOT of guaranteed money. He'd be stupid to risk that and sit out. All it takes is one skiing accident or some other unlucky tumble, and his value is incredibly diminished, and buh-bye to millions of dollars.

The only thing is, we don't know for sure what went on behind the scenes. For all we know, Montreal had an offersheet of 8.5m AAV over 5 years, and Drai was going to sign it unless we signed him for the same amount of money over 8 years. You just never know unless you're one of those guys behind the scenes. I truly think Drai is worth 7.5m at most, and more like 7m, but whatever. Good GMs find a way to make the cap work and fill the roster with useful players. We'll see how Chia fares over the next few years.

 

[Soundwave]

Forward depth is a bit of an illusion... if you look at the advanced stats and look at how the team's forwards have done over the past 3 years in terms of both their offensive and defensive numbers taking into account zone starts, quality of teammates and opposition... the overall forward depth isn't so hot.

Bottom 6 is strewn with a bunch of less than average NHL players and borderline AHL caliber players... they needed to keep improving this season or at a minimum plays as well as last season. Any collective regression meant the team would definitely be worse up front than last season where many players over achieved (and the team stayed very healthy).

Not saying that regression will happen this year, but it certainly could.

The top end talent is just that... very top heavy and it gets very thin quickly.

This is taking into account the forwards abilities at both ends of the ice and zone usage. As soon as some players are forced to play less PP time and face more defensive zone time, their numbers can suffer dramatically.

They have talent ... sadly half the talent is a no show every 2nd or 3rd game.

So that's a problem. If we have rookie Nugent Hopkins and Boston Bruins Milan Lucic ... is secondary scoring a problem?

Nope. And there's no reason those players cannot be that players they were. They're not 35. Lucic just turned 30 (still prime years for a player), RNH is 24 (should be prime for him).

 

[McDrai]

Second in the league in shots per game but our special teams have been atrocious. PP is 6th last and PK is dead last in the league. Considering how many penalties are called in a game I'm not surprised our record is so bad despite our large shot totals per game

 

[Soundwave]

I actually agree, and if it were me as the GM, I would've held at 7.5m max, though I'd make my 'final' offer 7m over 8 years until their demands went down, then go to 7.5 to 'sweeten' the deal. If he wanted to hold out, fine. Sign him later in the season when it's more important, anyway. Besides, most player eventually fold and sign. At that age they don't have much leverage. I just highly doubt Drai would've held out when he's looking at 7.5m over 8 years. That's a LOT of guaranteed money. He'd be stupid to risk that and sit out. All it takes is one skiing accident or some other unlucky tumble, and his value is incredibly diminished, and buh-bye to millions of dollars.

The only thing is, we don't know for sure what went on behind the scenes. For all we know, Montreal had an offersheet of 8.5m AAV over 5 years, and Drai was going to sign it unless we signed him for the same amount of money over 8 years. You just never know unless you're one of those guys behind the scenes. I truly think Drai is worth 7.5m at most, and more like 7m, but whatever. Good GMs find a way to make the cap work and fill the roster with useful players. We'll see how Chia fares over the next few years.

You needed McDavid to come down from 12.5 if Leon was going to go to 7.5. You can't have one guy taking 5 million less for only 23 points less or whatever. The gap is too big.

Eichel just signed for 10, Matthews is probably getting 11.5-12 on his deal.

 

[KarmaPolice]

You needed McDavid to come down from 12.5 if Leon was going to go to 7.5. You can't have one guy taking 5 million less for only 23 points less or whatever. The gap is too big.

Eichel just signed for 10, Matthews is probably getting 11.5-12 on his deal.

That's only one season, though. To me, he would've had to produce a lot more points on his own during the regular season, driving a line of his own. I just don't think he's an 8.5m dollar player. He's a great player, don't get me wrong. But is he 3.5m better than Ehlers? No way. Not a chance. And by the way, I was also vocal about signing Drai first, and THEN signing McDavid, that way that contract wouldn't have any bearing. But everyone was saying to me that the McDavid contract wouldn't affect the Drai contract. So which is it? Seems people are changing their tunes as the circumstances change. At least I'm always honest about my positions.

 

[Soundwave]

That's only one season, though. To me, he would've had to produce a lot more points on his own during the regular season, driving a line of his own. I just don't think he's an 8.5m dollar player. He's a great player, don't get me wrong. But is he 3.5m better than Ehlers? No way. Not a chance. And by the way, I was also vocal about signing Drai first, and THEN signing McDavid, that way that contract wouldn't have any bearing. But everyone was saying to me that the McDavid contract wouldn't affect the Drai contract. So which is it? Seems people are changing their tunes as the circumstances change. At least I'm always honest about my positions.

I agree with the negotiating part but lets be honest Leon and Connor are friends and Leon knew Connor was gonna get north of 11.

By the same token Connor could have left more money on the table too. Do you really need to be paid a full 2 million more than Patrick Kane? Goes both ways.

I would've preferred McDavid at 11.5 and Draisaitl at 7.5 obviously. Anyways, that really is the least of our problems right now, we can manage the cap, we can't manage said players playing at half ability.

McDavid has been a factor in winning/losing in 1/4 games. That isn't good enough for the best player in the world.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Kuznetsov got 7.8m while producing the same amount of points over the last two seasons but while driving his own line as a center. No way Drai deserved 700k more than Kuz got, nor 3.5m more than Ehlers got (even though he signed after, I realize).

Jets got such a steal in that Ehlers deal. They're going to LOVE that deal for a very long time, IMO. I think we paid by at least 1m, probably 1.5m in Drai's contract. But again, it's all about how the GM makes everything work. If we can still win, and Chia can make the cap work, it wont matter in the end.

 

[Soundwave]

Kuznetsov got 7.8m while producing the same amount of points over the last two seasons but while driving his own line as a center. No way Drai deserved 700k more than Kuz got, nor 3.5m more than Ehlers got (even though he signed after, I realize).

Jets got such a steal in that Ehlers deal. They're going to LOVE that deal for a very long time, IMO. I think we paid by at least 1m, probably 1.5m in Drai's contract. But again, it's all about how the GM makes everything work. If we can still win, and Chia can make the cap work, it wont matter in the end.

We'd win the Cup this year straight up if you replaced RNH and Lucic and with rookie RNH and Boston Bruins Lucic.

And really there's no reason either one of those guys cannot play at that level. It's not an age or injury impairment that stops them.

There's your "secondary scoring" problem right there in a nutshell. Ditto for Eberle, if Eberle could have even played like Eberle of 2-3 years prior ... we are playing in the Stanley Cup Finals most likely last June.

This team was always designed with the expectation that at least some of the "old boys club" of Hall/RNH/Eberle/Yakupov/Schultz would play well in the new McDavid era. So far none of them really have and we've had to move some for cap, and the big money forward we brought in (Lucic) hasn't been the player he used to be either.

 

[KarmaPolice]

We'd win the Cup this year straight up if you replaced RNH and Lucic and with rookie RNH and Boston Bruins Lucic.

And really there's no reason either one of those guys cannot play at that level. It's not an age or injury impairment that stops them.

I'm kind of worried about our D. I really, really want us to pick up Garrison from Vegas -- his contract expires after this season, he'd be cheap, and it's a low risk, high reward situation. I think he would really help fill the void left by Sekera until he's back. But yeah, our forwards would certainly be formidable if we had the Lucic and Nuge of old. Let's not forget Eberle, too. That guy played with a lot of fire in his game before he got the big contract (and maybe one year after -- hard to remember exactly). If last season we had the Nuge and Eberle of their first couple seasons, we beat Anaheim, I think we beat the Preds in 6, and maybe even take down the Pens, as our D would've been much better while our offense at least in their firing range at worst, and I think we would've taken them in 7. Sucks that it didn't happen. Eberle was once my favorite player, and I used to love how he played with speed and not showing much fear going to the net. He was never the same after he got hammered by Jack Johnson, though. Ah, what could've been.

 

[Soundwave]

I'm kind of worried about our D, but our forwards would certainly be formidable if we had the Lucic and Nuge of old. Let's not forget Eberle, too. That guy played with a lot of fire in his game before he got the big contract (and maybe one year after -- hard to remember exactly). If last season we had the Nuge and Eberle of their first couple seasons, we beat Anaheim, I think we beat the Preds in 6, and maybe even take down the Pens, as our D would've been much better while our offense at least in their firing distance at worst. Sucks that it didn't happen. Eberle was once my favorite player, and I used to love how he played with speed and not showing much fear going to the net. He was never the same after he got hammered by Jack Johnson, though. Ah, what could've been.

The problem is we were relying on at least 2 of these guys to at least show up right?

Doesn't matter if it was Hall + Eberle, or Lucic + Eberle, or RNH + Eberle, or Eberle + Yakupov even (lol) .... we bet hard on some of these guys reverting back to their "regular selves".

The problem is none of them did, though maybe Hall gets a bit of an out here, still how many of us had Hall pencilled in with McDavid for the next decade? And then when McDavid returned from a collar bone break, how many of us thought for sure McDavid line + Hall line gives us finally scoring depth (nope).

Consequently we could be looking at a bit of a retool that honestly may have to happen. I am hoping dearly that at least RNH can come around, but nights like this make me feel like we're probably dumping him at the end of the year too and won't get much and you can't put that all on Chia.

A GM has to be proactive with cap situations these days and players who don't produce but take up big salary spaces are gonna be moved if there's a willing taker.

 

[KarmaPolice]

The problem is we were relying on at least 2 of these guys to at least show up right?

Doesn't matter if it was Hall + Eberle, or Lucic + Eberle, or RNH + Eberle, or Eberle + Yakupov even (lol) .... we bet hard on some of these guys reverting back to their "regular selves".

The problem is none of them did, though maybe Hall gets a bit of an out here, still how many of us had Hall pencilled in with McDavid for the next decade? And then when McDavid returned from a collar bone break, how many of us thought for sure McDavid line + Hall line gives us finally scoring depth (nope).

Consequently we could be looking at a bit of a retool that honestly may have to happen. I am hoping dearly that at least RNH can come around, but nights like this make me feel like we're probably dumping him at the end of the year too and won't get much and you can't put that all on Chia.

A GM has to be proactive with cap situations these days and players who don't produce but take up big salary spaces are gonna be moved if there's a willing taker.

That's why I was fully on-board with trading Eberle. He was ONCE my favorite player, but that was long ago. At least 4 years now, and it was then his obvious apathy setting in too many games made me start to dislike him more and more until I just wanted him gone last season by mid-season or later; I forget. I like players who are always playing hard and playing to win. It's why Steve Yzerman is my favorite player of all-time -- both an incredibly skilled player, and a guy who would always give his best; even when he was basically just playing on one leg his final couple of seasons. He just had that fire and didn't want to give up. I have a ton of admiration for a player like that. When I see a guy like Eberle give up on plays and just not fight as hard as he should, I just can't support that. This team has some problems, but missing Eberle is NOT one of them. Eberle was a net negative the past 3-4 seasons, no matter his production. He was cutting too many corners and giving up too much defensive for his points to really matter. You don't win with players like that in your lineup -- and big surprise, we didn't win with him in our lineup last year (not that it was all on him at all, but he certainly didn't help with his 0 goals in the playoffs). And yeah, I've mentioned before that I think Nuge has to make himself invaluable to the team if he wants to stay. He needs to give Chia more reasons to look hard at ways to keep him, than taking the easier route and looking just to dish him for the best offer on a silent auction (which never gets you full value). I'm a fan of Nuge, and I think he can have a big year, and prove his importance to the team. I would actually like him to be given a shot on the wing: move Drai to 2nd line C and put Nuge either on Drai's LW or put him on the RW on the top line with McDavid. I would love to see how he does as a winger. Our coach obviously loves to have two centers on our top line (helps both in taking draws if one guy is thrown out and defensive awareness and ability). So I'd really like to see him given a chance there, but Todd doesn't think outside the box too much, so doubt that ever happens this season. It's not necessarily a permanent thing I'd like to see, even if he's a successful winger, but he does have a good shot, and it's interesting to me to see if he could get some sneaky goals shooting on his off wing with his pretty good wrister. It would also help us see if Drai has any natural chemistry with Kailer or Jesse -- maybe there's something there, and we might FINALLY have two scoring lines. You never know unless you try. But yeah, I don't have my hopes up about that happening because Todd.

 

[LemmyUlanov55]

Guess it was a good thing I fell asleep before the game even started.

 

[Soundwave]

That's why I was fully on-board with trading Eberle. He was ONCE my favorite player, but that was long ago. At least 4 years now, and it was then his obvious apathy setting in too many games made me start to dislike him more and more until I just wanted him gone last season by mid-season or later; I forget. I like players who are always playing hard and playing to win. It's why Steve Yzerman is my favorite player of all-time -- both an incredibly skilled player, and a guy who would always give his best; even when he was basically just playing on one leg his final couple of seasons. He just had that fire and didn't want to give up. I have a ton of admiration for a player like that. When I see a guy like Eberle give up on plays and just not fight as hard as he should, I just can't support that. This team has some problems, but missing Eberle is NOT one of them. Eberle was a net negative the past 3-4 seasons, no matter his production. He was cutting too many corners and giving up too much defensive for his points to really matter. You don't win with players like that in your lineup -- and big surprise, we didn't win with him in our lineup last year (not that it was all on him at all, but he certainly didn't help with his 0 goals). And yeah, I've mentioned before that I think Nuge has to make himself invaluable to the team if he wants to stay. He needs to give Chia more reasons to look hard at ways to keep him, than taking the easier route and looking just to dish him for the best offer on a silent auction (which never gets you full value). I'm a fan of Nuge, and I think he can have a big year, and prove his importance to the team. I would actually like him to be given a shot on the wing: move Drai to 2nd line C and put Nuge either on Drai's LW or put him on the RW on the top line with McDavid. I would love to see how he does as a winger. Our coach obviously loves to have two centers on our top line (helps both in taking draws if one guy is thrown out and defensive awareness and ability). So I'd really like to see him given a chance there, but Todd doesn't think outside the box too much, so doubt that ever happens this season. It's not necessarily a permanent thing I'd like to see, even if he's a successful winger, but he does have a good shot, and it's interesting to me to see if he could get some sneaky goals shooting on his off wing with his pretty good wrister. It would also help us see if Drai has any natural chemistry with Kailer or Jesse -- maybe there's something there, and we might FINALLY have two scoring lines. You never know unless you try. But yeah, I don't have my hopes up about that happening because Todd.

Knowing what we know now two years ago, we'd probably move Eberle for Kessel, RNH for a d-man, Yakupov for anything, and keep Hall. Passed on Lucic, but definitely grabbed Maroon for peanuts.

But you know we had to give the old core a chance with Connor ... none of them have taken the ball and ran with it.

If RNH does not have a great year, he's done here too. That's why I get really pissed off when he's legit looking like old RNH again, and then slips back into being Mr. Invisible. Can't do it man, can you at least f***ing work out so we at least have one player to show for that old rebuild. I'd gladly wash my hands of Strome so we can keep RNH cap wise, but that's not happening if he plays every second game like tonight.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Guess it was a good thing I fell asleep before the game even started.

I think most of our players did, too. You didn't miss much.