Selke Favorite (Post-Bergeron Injury)

[Espresso Martini]

How many more games does Bergeron have to miss before people realize he's out of the conversation?

Well he has only missed 3 so far (5 earlier in the season) and while he will miss more, I don't think he is out of the conversation yet.

 

[whitstifier]

Well he has only missed 3 so far (5 earlier in the season) and while he will miss more, I don't think he is out of the conversation yet.

Bergeron and Couturier have had similar seasons. There's no way Bergeron provides as much defensive value in his injury shortened season as Couturier might provide in a full season.

I doubt Bergeron's out of the conversation, but he should be

 

[CH]

I argue Mikael Backlund of Calgary should be the Selke front runner right now. I will also argue that he is lost in the discussion behind high scorers.

 

[gigi]

What are important stats for a selke winner? What stats should I use?
I made a comparison using these stats from corsica:
points/60
relative corsi for %
defensive zone starts %
faceoffs %
penalties drawn / penalties taken
takeaways / giweaways

 

[StoneHands]

I argue Mikael Backlund of Calgary should be the Selke front runner right now. I will also argue that he is lost in the discussion behind high scorers.

What makes you say that? Whether you agree with it or not, they aren't going to vote for a guy who has one of the worst +/- on a team that is a plus overall at ES. Looking back at previous Selke voting, it's very rare for a player to be a minus at all inside the top 10. He's also not good at faceoffs. He'll be in the top 10 because he's a good defensive forward but you really think he's having the best season of any defensive forward?

 

[StoneHands]

What are important stats for a selke winner? What stats should I use?
I made a comparison using these stats from corsica:
points/60
relative corsi for %
defensive zone starts %
faceoffs %
penalties drawn / penalties taken
takeaways / giweaways

That's what people on HF look at. Most voters are old dudes who don't know much if anything about advanced stats.

If I had to guess, these are the things they actually look for:
Team makes the playoffs
Top 6 Center
+/-
Points
Faceoff %
On the PK
Time on Ice
Does he "look" good on D?

 

[CH]

What makes you say that? Whether you agree with it or not, they aren't going to vote for a guy who has one of the worst +/- on a team that is a plus overall at ES. Looking back at previous Selke voting, it's very rare for a player to be a minus at all inside the top 10. He's also not good at faceoffs. He'll be in the top 10 because he's a good defensive forward but you really think he's having the best season of any defensive forward?

Backlund plays a tough role with a high percentage of defensive zone starts lots of penalty kill time and yet has a better Corsi than any of the other candidates being discussed here. Essentially, he plays a tough role and nevertheless the puck moves in his direction when he is on the ice. The difference between his zone starts and puck possession numbers are better than anyone else in the league.

Now you can argue about low sample size stats like +/- and you are largely discussing randomness. Which is not to say that voters do no vote based upon randomness, but they shouldn't.

 

[freecheese]

Generational 2-way forward Barkov.

22-year old Selke frontrunner Barkov almost unprecedented as only one time in history a player has won it at a younger age.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Gave it to Barkov.

 

[StoneHands]

Backlund plays a tough role with a high percentage of defensive zone starts lots of penalty kill time and yet has a better Corsi than any of the other candidates being discussed here. Essentially, he plays a tough role and nevertheless the puck moves in his direction when he is on the ice. The difference between his zone starts and puck possession numbers are better than anyone else in the league.

Now you can argue about low sample size stats like +/- and you are largely discussing randomness. Which is not to say that voters do no vote based upon randomness, but they shouldn't.

Zone starts have been proven to have very little affect on a players overall possession numbers. Regardless, all of the players being discussed for the Selke very similar zone starts except Bergeron. They all also play a significant roll on their teams PK which by the way does not count towards Corsi numbers (who uses anything except ES Corsi?). Bergeron has better raw Corsi numbers than Backlund and Couturier and Bergeron both have better Corsi Rel while Barkov is essentially the same. That's without getting into the quality of competition and how well they do against them. Combine that with the fact that there is almost never a Selke finalist with a minus rating let alone -9 and I just don't see it. That doesn't mean he's not a great defensive forward but he's just not THE best just because he PKs and gets some DZone starts like every other candidate.

 

[CH]

Zone starts have been proven to have very little affect on a players overall possession numbers. .

When you dismiss my argument with such a blatantly false statement I am not sure how to react.

Backlund plays a tough defensive role with strong puck possession numbers. He plays more penalty kill time than any of the other top candidates. He is the Selke front runner in my book.

 

[cribbe]

When you dismiss my argument with such a blatantly false statement I am not sure how to react.

Backlund plays a tough defensive role with strong puck possession numbers. He plays more penalty kill time than any of the other top candidates. He is the Selke front runner in my book.

Backlund has 47 more PK minutes than Barkov this year, but Backlund has been on for 18 TGA vs Barkovs 7. Just because he plays alot of pk doesnt mean he is better than the rest at it, they need some energy for the offensive game aswell

 

[CH]

Backlund has 47 more PK minutes than Barkov this year, but Backlund has been on for 18 TGA vs Barkovs 7. Just because he plays alot of pk doesnt mean he is better than the rest at it, they need some energy for the offensive game aswell

Attributing goals against to a single player on the ice is near meaningless. It neglects the 11 other players on the ice. Naturally they carry more of the play than any one player on the ice. Worse the numbers you are looking at are so small that they are not statistically significant. You are making decisions based upon statistical noise and no meaningful signal. That is the logic behind Corsi based systems. They are more meaningful than individual goals. Barkov is a good defensive forward and should be a nominee for the Selke - I would have him in 2nd place right now. Backlund has done more defensively largely by playing a more defensive role this season.

As far as the Selke Trophy goes there is no need at all for an offensive game. At least there shouldn't be. The ideal Selke winner would be the forward who produces the most wins (or win shares) with his defensive play. Offensive play is NOT a factor in being a defensive forward.

 

[jonlin]

Attributing goals against to a single player on the ice is near meaningless. It neglects the 11 other players on the ice. Naturally they carry more of the play than any one player on the ice. Worse the numbers you are looking at are so small that they are not statistically significant. You are making decisions based upon statistical noise and no meaningful signal. That is the logic behind Corsi based systems. They are more meaningful than individual goals. Barkov is a good defensive forward and should be a nominee for the Selke - I would have him in 2nd place right now. Backlund has done more defensively largely by playing a more defensive role this season.

As far as the Selke Trophy goes there is no need at all for an offensive game. At least there shouldn't be. The ideal Selke winner would be the forward who produces the most wins (or win shares) with his defensive play. Offensive play is NOT a factor in being a defensive forward.

On a better team than Barkov and a -11 (2nd last on team). Offensively much worse than him( Yes, offense has always been a factor in Selke too). Backlund also has 74PIM - this alone should drop him from the Selke conversation. A guy who puts his team in the box that much has no reason to be there. Ooh and he is a career <50% at FO. This year at 48,79%. That is nowhere near selke-caliber.

 

[wintersej]

What are important stats for a selke winner? What stats should I use?
I made a comparison using these stats from corsica:
points/60
relative corsi for %
defensive zone starts %
faceoffs %
penalties drawn / penalties taken
takeaways / giweaways

Why would you use only rel corsi and not also raw CF%? Should Bergeron get punished because Krejci is better than Patrick? And what does penalties drawn have to do with defensive acumen?

 

[CH]

On a better team than Barkov and a -11 (2nd last on team). Offensively much worse than him( Yes, offense has always been a factor in Selke too). Backlund also has 74PIM - this alone should drop him from the Selke conversation. A guy who puts his team in the box that much has no reason to be there. Ooh and he is a career <50% at FO. This year at 48,79%. That is nowhere near selke-caliber.

Thank you for a list of statistics which are in some cases moderately appropriate and in others pretty irrelevant to the conversation.

Now let's list some Backlund numbers that make his case. He is second in ice time among Calgary forwards (behind Gaudreau) despite lacking strong offensive value. His value comes from defence. He has the best "raw Corsi" among all Calgary forwards. 56.27% corsi for while playing with 44.23% defensive zone starts. He plays defensive situations and nevertheless the puck is going in his direction. That is statistically about as well as we can show defence. He plays more penalty killing time than any of the other candidates listed in this thread. Then of course there is the eyeball test.

You can stick to +/- ratings and the statistical uncertainty that comes from the limited sample size if you wish. With the larger sample size Corsi provides, the story opposes the +/- conclusions. What else do you quote as stats? Penalty minutes? That's a stretch. Faceoffs. Everybody in the NHL is 50 +/- epsilon if they take a bunch of faceoffs and as we see from the Corsi numbers this doesn't prevent the puck from going in Calgary's direction when Backlund is on the ice. Faceoffs are largely irrelevant to the Selke (or should be) as some past winners rarely took them. Then of course you ask for offence. Offence is clearly not defence. Largely, your problem seems to be that just because a number can be measured you want to use it in your analysis regardless of its relevance.

That isn't to say that I expect voters to pick Backlund for the award. I don't. But I see him as the front runner.

 

[Ainec]

Why would you use only rel corsi and not also raw CF%? Should Bergeron get punished because Krejci is better than Patrick? And what does penalties drawn have to do with defensive acumen?

You do realize that the seasons Bergeron won Selke it was his rel cf that was the indicator and not his raw corsi?

 

[Ainec]

Backlund J.Staal etc would be selke nom worthy last year but this hear with Barkov Couturier etc? no.

 

[MidWestJet]

No one has ever won a selke with out getting top 5 in votes in pryier years. So anyone thinking a new comer is going to take it is sadly mistaken. Kopitar get my vote Bergeron doesn't come back and play at the same level.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

 

[Ainec]

best 2 way player in the league, my username

 

[Howe Elbows 9]

No one has ever won a selke with out getting top 5 in votes in pryier years. So anyone thinking a new comer is going to take it is sadly mistaken. Kopitar get my vote Bergeron doesn't come back and play at the same level.

Well, that's not true...

Season	Player	Team	Best Selke finish prior to win
2005-06	Rod Brind'Amour	Carolina Hurricanes	Ninth (1998-99)
2003-04	Kris Draper	Detroit Red Wings	15th (2002-03)
2000-01	John Madden	New Jersey Devils	13th (1999-00)
1996-97	Michael Peca	Buffalo Sabres	N/A (105 NHL GP prior to 1996-97)
1990-91	Dirk Graham	Chicago Blackhawks	Seventh (1988-89)
1986-87	Dave Poulin	Philadelphia Flyers	Seventh (1984-85)
19885-86	Troy Murray	Chicaco Black Hawks	10th (1984-85)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[FinlandPanther]

I feel sorry for anyone who actually believes Couturier is better on anything than Barkov. Guy is literally inferior in every aspect of the game.

 

[BB88]

I feel sorry for anyone who actually believes Couturier is better on anything than Barkov. Guy is literally inferior in every aspect of the game.

I especially struggle with him being better offensively than Barkov.