GDT: Season Opener! Flames @ Capitals, 5:00 PM, TSN

[MarkGio]

Well yes but that is due to one game. Unless we aren't letting centers have bad games any more.

The regular season has started. We need him helping the team win games right now

 

[MarkGio]

I would bet due to winger wins that the average for center is a little below 50%.

It should all work out to the expected outcome. Wingers will win, they will lose, just as centres will. Its a coin toss game.

 

[TheHudlinator]

The regular season has started. We need him helping the team win games right now

Literally just did I don't get the your point. 1 bad games shouldn't make him bad at faceoffs neither should 1 good game.

Outside of his first year here where he was extremely sheltered he has improved every year. I don't get why some people are complaining.

 

[TheHudlinator]

It should all work out to the expected outcome. Wingers will win, they will lose, just as centres will. Its a coin toss game.

Not true centers will generally have a higher success rate.

 

[MarkGio]

Not true centers will generally have a higher success rate.

I bet. Its rare that both centres get thrown from the circle and therefore its winger vs winger, so its easy to see how centres have the advantage. Among wingers, there should be a reduced average of 45% as an example whereas centres might average 55%. Either way its a coin toss game and the expected outcome over the course all tosses should be 50%. Whether or not that's the actual outcome is different. I don't know the actual average.

 

[Anglesmith]

I bet. Its rare that both centres get thrown from the circle and therefore its winger vs winger, so its easy to see how centres have the advantage. Among wingers, there should be a reduced average of 45% as an example whereas centres might average 55%. Either way its a coin toss game and the expected outcome over the course all tosses should be 50%. Whether or not that's the actual outcome is different. I don't know the actual average.

It would be more like 35% vs 51%. Centres take a whole bunch more faceoffs.

 

[MarkGio]

Literally just did I don't get the your point. 1 bad games shouldn't make him bad at faceoffs neither should 1 good game.

Outside of his first year here where he was extremely sheltered he has improved every year. I don't get why some people are complaining.

Backlund has played several seasons now. This isn't about 1 good game against a rebuilding Columbus team.

 

[MarkGio]

It would be more like 35% vs 51%. Centres take a whole bunch more faceoffs.

I would assume wingers should have more variance. I bet some wingers are 7/10 on the draw, but would be 100/400 if they took centremen-like numbers

 

[TheHudlinator]

Backlund has played several seasons now. This isn't about 1 good game against a rebuilding Columbus team.

In his career Backlund is 48%, is he great? NO. But he isn't that bad considering he is only 24 and it takes years to master faceoffs in the NHL. Wtf is your point about his faceoff ability?

 

[TheHudlinator]

I bet. Its rare that both centres get thrown from the circle and therefore its winger vs winger, so its easy to see how centres have the advantage. Among wingers, there should be a reduced average of 45% as an example whereas centres might average 55%. Either way its a coin toss game and the expected outcome over the course all tosses should be 50%. Whether or not that's the actual outcome is different. I don't know the actual average.

You clearly don't know probability if you think 55% vs 45% has a 50% expected value

 

[MarkGio]

You clearly don't know probability if you think 55% vs 45% has a 50% expected value

Face-offs are independent of one another and I would argue that any given face-offer has an equal opportunity in hockey. Between wingers jumping in, getting tossed-out, and clean wins, I believe its a coin toss event, with an expected outcome of 50%... which might not be the actual outcome.

Null hypothesis?

I thought you were in a math program?

 

[TheHudlinator]

Face-offs are independent of one another and I would argue that any given face-offer has an equal opportunity in hockey. Between wingers jumping in, getting tossed-out, and clean wins, I believe its a coin toss event, with an expected outcome of 50%... which might not be the actual outcome.

Null hypothesis?

I thought you were in a math program?

While they have nothing to do with each other every player has a higher chance of success than the other you can't compare it to a coin toss it isn't an even 50/50. Again even if it was Backlund only losses a few more than he wins it isn't that big of a deal.

 

[herashak]

High 40s seems to be average. the elite guys are high 50s. The oilers are low 40s.

 

[MarkGio]

In his career Backlund is 48%, is he great? NO. But he isn't that bad considering he is only 24 and it takes years to master faceoffs in the NHL. Wtf is your point about his faceoff ability?

He was ranked 137th among centremen last year. He was 172nd the year before. My point is that he's 24 years old now (approaching his prime), has now played 170 NHL games, and is now in the top 6 in a rebuilding team so he now needs to be better at face-offs if he's going to be a core centremen for the this club going forward.

You already said he isn't great. What are you arguing, that he can't be critiqued?

 

[MarkGio]

While they have nothing to do with each other every player has a higher chance of success than the other you can't compare it to a coin toss it isn't an even 50/50. Again even if it was Backlund only losses a few more than he wins it isn't that big of a deal.

There's two events: win or lose. Unless you can prove to me that probabilities are different, it is I who should be "" because there are regular events in which centremen get beat by wingers. Usually due to the losing team having weaker wingers in a scrum.

 

[TheHudlinator]

He was ranked 137th among centremen last year. He was 172nd the year before. My point is that he's 24 years old now (approaching his prime), has now played 170 NHL games, and is now in the top 6 in a rebuilding team so he now needs to be better at face-offs if he's going to be a core centremen for the this club going forward.

You already said he isn't great. What are you arguing, that he can't be critiqued?

No I am saying being 47% isn't bad it just isn't great I don't get what your point is. He is stellar at it but he is helping this team win unless you missed last nights game.

 

[TheHudlinator]

There's two events: win or lose. Unless you can prove to me that probabilities are different, it is I who should be "" because there are regular events in which centremen get beat by wingers. Usually due to the losing team having weaker wingers in a scrum.

Again it isn't just a coin flip or else you could put any 2 players in the center and be able to expect them to win the faceoff and I think I can guarantee that Bergeron vs Street won't be 50/50.

 

[Anglesmith]

There's two events: win or lose. Unless you can prove to me that probabilities are different, it is I who should be "" because there are regular events in which centremen get beat by wingers. Usually due to the losing team having weaker wingers in a scrum.

From a statistical point of view, each player shows their probability of winning or losing dependent on results over a high sample size. If a player wins 65% of the time over about 1000 faceoffs, then you can narrow his probability of winning down to a reasonably small interval at 99% confidence. If it's over 10 faceoffs, then the variance would probably be more than 10% even at 85%. TheHudlinator could probably expand on this.

Basically, it's a coin toss, but for each pair of opposing facers-off, the coin is weighted a little differently.

 

[MarkGio]

Again it isn't just a coin flip or else you could put any 2 players in the center and be able to expect them to win the faceoff and I think I can guarantee that Bergeron vs Street won't be 50/50.

If Street falls on the puck and two strong wingers come in absolutely he could win. I've taken Face-offs and in my experience they are about strength, skill and luck, and require everyone at the circle to be involved. I compare it to an arm wrestle, really.

 

[MarkGio]

From a statistical point of view, each player shows their probability of winning or losing dependent on results over a high sample size. If a player wins 65% of the time over about 1000 faceoffs, then you can narrow his probability of winning down to a reasonably small interval at 99% confidence. If it's over 10 faceoffs, then the variance would probably be more than 10% even at 85%. TheHudlinator could probably expand on this.

Basically, it's a coin toss, but for each pair of opposing facers-off, the coin is weighted a little differently.

Yeah that sounds right to me.

 

[HighLifeMan]

He was ranked 137th among centremen last year. He was 172nd the year before. My point is that he's 24 years old now (approaching his prime), has now played 170 NHL games, and is now in the top 6 in a rebuilding team so he now needs to be better at face-offs if he's going to be a core centremen for the this club going forward.

You already said he isn't great. What are you arguing, that he can't be critiqued?

No he is arguing your logic that in order for Backlund to remain a center in the NHL, that he must be hover around 50% in the faceoff circle.

In my opinion Mikael Backlund is already our best three zone forward, which is exactly why he should be a core piece of this team as a top nine CENTER moving forward.


For comparison sake, here is a list of a few centers that are still figuring out how to be successful in the faceoff circle in the NHL.

Last season
Ryan Nugent Hopkins - 41.0%
Sean Couturier - 43.9%
Sam Gagner - 43.9%
Andrew Shaw - 44.0%
Nazem Kadri - 44.2%
Brayden Schenn - 45.5%
Derek Stepan - 45.8%
Jamie Benn - 46.1%
Marcus Kruger - 46.2%
Patrick Berglund - 46.3%
Martin Hanzal - 46.8% (this is a player widely regarded for his defensive abilities)
Cody Hodgson - 46.8%
Mikael Backlund - 47.7%

 

[MarkGio]

No he is arguing your logic that in order for Backlund to remain a center in the NHL, that he must be hover around 50% in the faceoff circle.

In my opinion Mikael Backlund is already our best three zone forward, which is exactly why he should be a core piece of this team as a top nine CENTER moving forward.


For comparison sake, here is a list of a few centers that are still figuring out how to be successful in the faceoff circle in the NHL.

Last season
Ryan Nugent Hopkins - 41.0%
Sean Couturier - 43.9%
Sam Gagner - 43.9%
Andrew Shaw - 44.0%
Nazem Kadri - 44.2%
Brayden Schenn - 45.5%
Derek Stepan - 45.8%
Jamie Benn - 46.1%
Marcus Kruger - 46.2%
Patrick Berglund - 46.3%
Martin Hanzal - 46.8% (this is a player widely regarded for his defensive abilities)
Cody Hodgson - 46.8%
Mikael Backlund - 47.7%

My logic isn't that Backlund shouldn't be a centre because of his numbers, but that he shouldn't be a Flames centre if the Flames are trying to address their holes when rebuilding the team. Or that he needs to be working on that area of his game, that's all. If its broke, fix it.

Beglund surprises me.

 

[TheHudlinator]

My logic isn't that Backlund shouldn't be a centre because of his numbers, but that he shouldn't be a Flames centre if the Flames are trying to address their holes when rebuilding the team. Or that he needs to be working on that area of his game, that's all. If its broke, fix it.

Beglund surprises me.

The problem is it isn't broken he just isn't meant to take the majority of the teams faceoffs. If he was our 2nd or 3rd center he would be fine it seems worse than it is as we have 3 rookies at center behind Backlund right now so Backlund has to take the majority of the hard faceoffs.

 

[TheHudlinator]

From a statistical point of view, each player shows their probability of winning or losing dependent on results over a high sample size. If a player wins 65% of the time over about 1000 faceoffs, then you can narrow his probability of winning down to a reasonably small interval at 99% confidence. If it's over 10 faceoffs, then the variance would probably be more than 10% even at 85%. TheHudlinator could probably expand on this.

Basically, it's a coin toss, but for each pair of opposing facers-off, the coin is weighted a little differently.

This is a good way to explain it. I think the main problem is it is expected that faceoff wins are normally distributed which is true on a whole but I think if we could take out winger wins when the centers tie up we would see a more screwed graph and in recent history our wingers have been horrid at helping the center.

 

[HighLifeMan]

My logic isn't that Backlund shouldn't be a centre because of his numbers, but that he shouldn't be a Flames centre if the Flames are trying to address their holes when rebuilding the team. Or that he needs to be working on that area of his game, that's all. If its broke, fix it.

Beglund surprises me.

Having a 2nd or 3rd line center that wins 48% of his draws is hardly a deterrent for a hockey club, especially when you take into account his ability to take the puck away from the opponent and transition it up the ice (which are both huge strengths of his game). We saw it last night when he forced the turnover in the neutral zone through hard work and an active stick, directly resulting in the Hudler snipe just moments later.

I agree that he should definitely continue to work on improving that area of his game, but it certainly should not be a pivotal factor in determining if he remains as a core piece of this team moving forward. I just don't believe that his faceoff ability is as you call it "broken", but it could always improve.