Scott Wheeler's top 75 NHL drafted prospects

[BerthMania]

Here's the list, I know it's under a paywall, I'll give you his first 2 tiers and a couple choices that surprised me.


Tier 1:
#1 Matvei Michkov
#2 SImon Nemec

Tier 2:
#3 Brandt Clarke
#4 Will Smith
#5 Cutter Gauthier
#6 Zach Benson
#7 Gabe Perreault
#8 Alexander Nikishin
#9 Kent Johnson
#10 David Jiricek

His tier 3 has 15 players including the Habs Lane Hutson at 14, in front of Shane Wright, (I'm a Habs fan and big Hutson supporter and even I find it high) and Reinbacher at 25. He also has Axel Sandin Pelikka at 24, which seems high to me.

His tier 4 have 35 players. Surprising to me: Bradly Nadeau st 29, Brad Lambert at 34 (with his AHL season, he'd be higher on my list), Mavrik Bourque at 59 (with the season he's having he might deserve to be a bit higher), also Joshua Roy is at 53 for Habs fan.

His tier 5 has 15 players. Including Logan Mailloux at 67, Ivan Miroshnichenko at 69 (might be a little low)

I'd like to hear your thoughts!

https://theathletic.com/5303482/2024/03/04/top-nhl-prospects-2024-matvei-michkov/?campaign=5888993&source=dailyemail&userId=10741333%3C

edit: Since many are doubting Wheeler's definition of a prospect (why include Kent Johnson, but not Leo Carlsson?), here's his definition:

To be eligible for inclusion, a skater must:

1. Be under 23 years old. We know that by the time a player turns 23, he is largely done with the steep upward progression we see in prospects and will begin to plateau.
2. Not be a full-time NHL player. This is the arbitrary section of the criteria. Here, I trust my judgment for whether or not a rostered NHL player is still likely to bounce between levels more than I trust any pre-determined games played cutoff. Preference for inclusion as an NHL prospect is more likely to be given to teenagers than 22-year-olds.
3. Either be signed to an NHL contract or selected in the entry draft, without the expiration of either of those rights. Players who are signed to AHL contracts are not considered.

Click to read more...

 

[Dominance]

Automatically better than the other recent lists that had Cutter f***ing Gauthier as the top drafted prospect

 

[schuelma24]

I appreciate the work he puts into this, but his emphasis on counting stats at the expense of NHL size makes these lists a bit nonsensical in parts and I would hazard a bet these will not age well. I get not wanting to let your list just be a literal reflection of what scouts think, but this is a bit much.
He really likes small to average sized wingers, that's for sure.

Pronman isn't much better, but at least he appears to take into account what the actual professionals think.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Gabe

 

[shotvalley]

Scott Wheeler's rankings means absolutely nothing - just a talking head.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I appreciate the work he puts into this, but his emphasis on counting stats at the expense of NHL size makes these lists a bit nonsensical in parts and I would hazard a bet these will not age well. I get not wanting to let your list just be a literal reflection of what scouts think, but this is a bit much.
He really likes small to average sized wingers, that's for sure.

Pronman isn't much better, but at least he appears to take into account what the actual professionals think.

Careful bud. I literally can't comment on The Athletic anymore because Scott got furious when I pointed out his history of stat watching and devaluing defensive ability.

Naturally, as a Red Wings fan, I was shocked when he ranked ASP over Kasper and Danielson.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Bourque at 59 given his production in the AHL is criminal.

He's outpacing guys in lower leagues who are 20+ spots above him.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I think the funniest part is how Bedard and Carlsson didn't qualify for this or his team rankings... But Kent Johnson and his 130 NHL games is still ranked.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

I think the funniest part is how Bedard and Carlsson didn't qualify for this or his team rankings... But Kent Johnson and his 130 NHL games is still ranked.

Seriously though...even Zach Benson is on the list but Bedard isn't. Benson is the same age and has literally played more games than Bedard.

 

[BerthMania]

Here is Wheeler's definition of a prospect.

To be eligible for inclusion, a skater must:

1. Be under 23 years old. We know that by the time a player turns 23, he is largely done with the steep upward progression we see in prospects and will begin to plateau.
2. Not be a full-time NHL player. This is the arbitrary section of the criteria. Here, I trust my judgment for whether or not a rostered NHL player is still likely to bounce between levels more than I trust any pre-determined games played cutoff. Preference for inclusion as an NHL prospect is more likely to be given to teenagers than 22-year-olds.
3. Either be signed to an NHL contract or selected in the entry draft, without the expiration of either of those rights. Players who are signed to AHL contracts are not considered.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Here is Wheeler's definition of a prospect.

To be eligible for inclusion, a skater must:

1. Be under 23 years old. We know that by the time a player turns 23, he is largely done with the steep upward progression we see in prospects and will begin to plateau.
2. Not be a full-time NHL player. This is the arbitrary section of the criteria. Here, I trust my judgment for whether or not a rostered NHL player is still likely to bounce between levels more than I trust any pre-determined games played cutoff. Preference for inclusion as an NHL prospect is more likely to be given to teenagers than 22-year-olds.
3. Either be signed to an NHL contract or selected in the entry draft, without the expiration of either of those rights. Players who are signed to AHL contracts are not considered.

You could make the argument on Point #2 for Benson... You can't for Johnson.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Careful bud. I literally can't comment on The Athletic anymore because Scott got furious when I pointed out his history of stat watching and devaluing defensive ability.

Naturally, as a Red Wings fan, I was shocked when he ranked ASP over Kasper and Danielson.

I've gone through like 4 Athletic accounts because of how easily they ban people who comment. Softest moderators i've ever seen. The writers will have an extremely opinionated piece ( Hello, Lazerus) but god forbid anyone respond with an opposing opinion.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

Seriously though...even Zach Benson is on the list but Bedard isn't. Benson is the same age and has literally played more games than Bedard.

Yeah - kinda shows his lack of credibility. Makes me wonder is he doesn't even know that Benson, K.Johnson and others are playing regular shifts on their NHL team.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I've gone through like 4 Athletic accounts because of how easily they ban people who comment. Softest moderators i've ever seen. The writers will have an extremely opinionated piece ( Hello, Lazerus) but god forbid anyone respond with an opposing opinion.

I dunno if they're the softest moderators I've ever seen..........

But yeah, they were on a bad streak about 2-3 years ago. And Wheeler and I had a pretty good back and forth that ended with him complaining that I point out his stat-watching tendencies on all his articles. Like... Dude. Do better, then?

It got hairy when I pointed out multiple graduated defensive defensemen who he ranked lower than offensive D who either busted or ended up a clear tier below.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

Bourque at 59 given his production in the AHL is criminal.

He's outpacing guys in lower leagues who are 20+ spots above him.

Scott Wheeler lacks brain power.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Scott Wheeler lacks brain power.

My favorite was 2020-2021. He did a pre-season ranking where he put Seider #22, after he had a solid season in the AHL at 18. A month after the list came out, Seider was dominating the SHL and Wheeler tweeted out that Seider was one of the prospects he was "Wrong about".

... He then did his mid-season list (Keep in mind people would've graduated from the pre-season list) and left Seider out of the Top 10, while he was destroying the SHL.

 

[stl76]

I’m always surprised when Theo Lindstein isn’t ranked higher on these lists. Kid is legit.

 

[MS]

Wheeler is the definition of a stat counter and always overrates tiny skill players.

And yeah, the criteria they use for these things is always dumb.

Just use Calder Trophy eligibility. If you're still eligible to win the Calder trophy, you're a prospect. If you're not ... you aren't. Trying to use U-23 is just dumb (and leads to having guys who are top-10 in Calder voting in any given year who were deemed 'not prospects' before that year) and I have no idea how you come up with a system where Benson is still a prospect and Carlsson isn't.

 

[Chainshot]

Seriously though...even Zach Benson is on the list but Bedard isn't. Benson is the same age and has literally played more games than Bedard.

That was my first thought when reading it - the criteria are very slushy.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Scott Wheeler lacks brain power.

He's getting us to click on low-effort posts, seems smart to me

 

[Golden_Jet]

Wheeler and Dom are both in the same tier, poor.
Can’t get over how many posters get upset when you point out Dom’s model is not the best.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I like the Pronman 'Prospect' criteria than Wheeler's "whatver I feel like" criteria for Number 2.

24 year olds can be prospects depending on their specific career trajectory. You can be an AHL rookie at 24 in certain cases.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

I like the Pronman 'Prospect' criteria than Wheeler's "whatver I feel like" criteria for Number 2.

24 year olds can be prospects depending on their specific career trajectory. You can be an AHL rookie at 24 in certain cases.

If you are 24 and playing in the AHL then you are highly unlikely to be a star player, at least for skaters. Goalie, fine, but at 24 you are as cooked as you are going to be and if you haven’t been called up for good it’s for a reason.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Nikishin is a tier 1 prospect. He's the best prospect outside the NHL.

 

[WarriorofTime]

If you are 24 and playing in the AHL then you are highly unlikely to be a star player, at least for skaters. Goalie, fine, but at 24 you are as cooked as you are going to be and if you haven’t been called up for good it’s for a reason.

A 'star' player, definitely not. But you can still be a waiver-exempt 1st year professional that a team can season up in the AHL and then get some cost-affordable bottom six seasons out of. Every player is on a different trajectory. They don't all use their CHL eligibility at 19, turn pro at 20 and are in their 5th professional season by then.