Scoring Depth Issues

[Arzak]

Nobody is perfect, and no, correcting the mistakes of him and his predecessors does not mean "correcting what was wrong with the world".
Now we wait to see if Treliving can fix his own mistakes, like the scoring depth issues he created. So far, not great.

Actually, he not only fixed his mistakes, but everybody else's too. We'll see how Treliving does -hopefully well moving forward - but so far, not good.

Oh I see why you are so confused. Dubas fixed nothing.

Let me give you an example - sign RFA Marner to $11M contract . Fix? Left organization. We can go on and talk about other mistakes. His fix is always the same, he run away.


Please stop with this cringe narrative. Dubas overpaid for Marner, JT, Nylander. Dubas traded away picks for nothing. Dubas is the sole reason we have depth issues.

Dubas is the reason why we have no picks and no cap space.

Dubas is the reason why Tre or any other GM can't fix our depth issues. You need cap space and/or picks to address it.

Kyle fked us, left us with overpaid players and no picks.


It doesn't matter who the GM is for the next 5 years. He/she can only wait for picks and ludicrous contracts to expire. 0 wiggle room left by Kyle Dubas.


Edit: He can fix one mistake and trade for Marner. That would help a lot !

 

[ToneDog]

Oh I see why you are so confused. Dubas fixed nothing.

Let me give you an example - sign RFA Marner to $11M contract . Fix? Left organization. We can go on and talk about other mistakes. His fix is always the same, he run away.


Please stop with this cringe narrative. Dubas overpaid for Marner, JT, Nylander. Dubas traded away picks for nothing. Dubas is the sole reason we have depth issues.

Dubas is the reason why we have no picks and no cap space.

Dubas is the reason why Tre or any other GM can't fix our depth issues. You need cap space and/or picks to address it.

Kyle fked us, left us with overpaid players and no picks.


It doesn't matter who the GM is for the next 5 years. He/she can only wait for picks and ludicrous contracts to expire. 0 wiggle room left by Kyle Dubas.


Edit: He can fix one mistake and trade for Marner. That would help a lot !

Listening to Petey say players need to take less of the pie sickens me when I think of what the 3 amigos did to this team. Personally, I do not see these 3 having any playoff success here, even after Tavares comes off the books. Four forwards earning 46.494m next year with a projected cap of 87.5m is nuts. If they fail to deliver in April, the party has to be over. They have to tell Marner and Tavares that the team is moving on from them and if they like, we can find you a new home.

And while I am on this rant, what also sickens me is that they bet on 4 forwards who have to be the softest group of 4 core forwards on one team and they banished Kadri because he was suspended twice by a joke of a league when it comes to DOPs. Kadri bled blue and white, took no shit from the Bruins and would throw his grandmother down the stairs to win in the playoffs while we doubled and tripled down on 4 forwards who bring butter knifes to a gunfight.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Let me give you an example - sign RFA Marner to $11M contract

10.9m, and that's not a mistake.

Dubas overpaid for Marner, JT, Nylander. Dubas traded away picks for nothing. Dubas is the sole reason we have depth issues. Dubas is the reason why we have no picks and no cap space.Dubas is the reason why Tre or any other GM can't fix our depth issues. You need cap space and/or picks to address it.

Literally none of that is true. None of Marner, Tavares, or Nylander were overpaid. The picks traded away were not for nothing, and he both replenished picks and replenished our prospect pool with the picks he had. With smart, efficient signings, we had good depth under Dubas, through massively more difficult situations, as I showed here:

Forward goals per game outside of our core 4:

Toronto (2022) - 0.179
Toronto (2019) - 0.178
Toronto (2021) - 0.165
Toronto (2020) - 0.163
Toronto (2023) - 0.161
Toronto (2024) - 0.134

And he set Treliving up for even better depth, with multiple prospects ready to graduate.
And despite multiple internal additions, plenty of assets and picks, and TONS of cap space - further boosted by reallocating defense and goaltending spending to scoring depth - our scoring depth is now below average and the worst it's ever been, specifically because of bad decisions that Treliving made. And he's done absolutely nothing to fix it so far. In fact, the only change he's made during the season was trading away a good scoring depth piece left for him by the previous GM.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Contracts be damned. The only way I can see this roster competing with any chance of success is for Keefe to admit that 'stacking' two lines won't work. We do not have the defensive players needed to fill out lines 3 and 4 that could keep the puck out of our zone consistently enough for the Leafs to be successful. Coupled with a suspect D and G situation, our top two lines simply cannot score enough to offset the weaknesses further down the line up. In my opinion we have to change to a 3 line scoring team, and use our best options with the 4th line and hope they can hold their own.

Knies Matthews Bertuzzi
Jarnkrok Tavares Nylander
Robertson Domi Marner
Holmberg Kamph McMann

I could argue lines 2 and 3 could be switched. Regardless, I think either possesses enough talent to attack most other team's 3rd line with success, with either being able to hold their own against most 2nd lines in the league. Each of the first 3 lines has 1 player capable of responsible defensive play. Each of the top 3 lines has 2 players shooting over 11.7% (that being Nylander's %, which is the lowest of the 6), each has 2 players , you haven'tidentified the within our top 9 when it comes to ESA/60, each has a C with a winning FO%, and while admittedly a flawed stat, as a team with a +13 goal differential, the top 3 lines would be (cumulatively for each line) +23, +14, and +14, which handily bests our current line up.

Obviously, Matthews run for 70 would be harder without Marner. Marner would be disappointed losing out on 1st line minutes. I don't care. Keefe would need to balance the minutes more evenly, with the 4th line hovering between 8-10 min/night.

If you still have JT at 2C with Willy, you haven't identified the biggest problem.

 

[Arzak]

Getting sloppy?

Sloppier?

I had to censor myself to avoid ban. Getting sloppy was the best I could do at the time
I mean he is not even trying to refute any points, just flat out going with his propaganda.

I'm trying to see the pro Dubas point of view and I understand that he had some tough decisions to make.

As a whole when I look at the team Dubas inherited, with AJ , Kapannen, Kadri, cap space, stars on ELC and all the picks in the world. Compare it to what we had the moment he left and it's IMO not even close.

What's more problematic, some of his decisions - like the lack of drafting/picks and prospects is not something Tre can just fix. The fact that Nylander had NTC, Marner got NMC and JT NMC himself is hardly Tre's fault.


All in all Kyle traded away picks and locked half the cap in Core 4. You have to wonder, under the CBA, what can Tre do to un-do the sh*t Kyle left here?

If you tried to make our Cup window the shortest possible, you would do exactly what Kyle Dubas did here.

 

[Racer88]

10.9m, and that's not a mistake.

Literally none of that is true. None of Marner, Tavares, or Nylander were overpaid. The picks traded away were not for nothing, and he both replenished picks and replenished our prospect pool with the picks he had. With smart, efficient signings, we had good depth under Dubas, through massively more difficult situations, as I showed here:

Forward goals per game outside of our core 4:

Toronto (2022) - 0.179
Toronto (2019) - 0.178
Toronto (2021) - 0.165
Toronto (2020) - 0.163
Toronto (2023) - 0.161
Toronto (2024) - 0.134

And he set Treliving up for even better depth, with multiple prospects ready to graduate.
And despite multiple internal additions, plenty of assets and picks, and TONS of cap space - further boosted by reallocating defense and goaltending spending to scoring depth - our scoring depth is now below average and the worst it's ever been, specifically because of bad decisions that Treliving made. And he's done absolutely nothing to fix it so far. In fact, the only change he's made during the season was trading away a good scoring depth piece left for him by the previous GM.

Yet will all that Dubas’s greatness we still had only 1 single round win……he must be very unlucky

 

[meefer]

If you still have JT at 2C with Willy, you haven't identified the biggest problem.

The biggest problem is we don't have enough talent to distribute effectively throughout the line up. We don't have an option to replace JT at 2C, that isn't a case of not recognizing a weakness, that is accepting reality. I'm just suggesting what I consider to be the best use of what we have. You may think differently, cheers.

 

[GoonieFace]

10.9m, and that's not a mistake.

Literally none of that is true. None of Marner, Tavares, or Nylander were overpaid. The picks traded away were not for nothing, and he both replenished picks and replenished our prospect pool with the picks he had. With smart, efficient signings, we had good depth under Dubas, through massively more difficult situations, as I showed here:

Forward goals per game outside of our core 4:

Toronto (2022) - 0.179
Toronto (2019) - 0.178
Toronto (2021) - 0.165
Toronto (2020) - 0.163
Toronto (2023) - 0.161
Toronto (2024) - 0.134

And he set Treliving up for even better depth, with multiple prospects ready to graduate.
And despite multiple internal additions, plenty of assets and picks, and TONS of cap space - further boosted by reallocating defense and goaltending spending to scoring depth - our scoring depth is now below average and the worst it's ever been, specifically because of bad decisions that Treliving made. And he's done absolutely nothing to fix it so far. In fact, the only change he's made during the season was trading away a good scoring depth piece left for him by the previous GM.

So you don’t think paying Marner 10.9mil as a RFA for the past 5 years was a mistake? Pastrnak just signed for 300k more, not 5 years ago, now. That’s madness, no other way around it.

 

[Arzak]

So you don’t think paying Marner 10.9mil as a RFA for the past 5 years was a mistake? Pastrnak just signed for 300k more, not 5 years ago, now. That’s madness, no other way around it.

It's pure madness, we have to compare RFA contract from 5 years ago to UFA contract signed now for a longer term.

That's before you consider one of them got 61 goals 113 points, Rocket and was 2nd in Hart last year.

The other Selke nomination and very respectable 99 point season playing with Matthews .


It's funny, Selke nomination for Mitch is all that matters, MVP nomination for Pasta? Nope we only count Rocket he actually won and 60 goals he actually scored.

 

[ToneDog]

So you don’t think paying Marner 10.9mil as a RFA for the past 5 years was a mistake? Pastrnak just signed for 300k more, not 5 years ago, now. That’s madness, no other way around it.

Geez when you put it like that, just shows how much in over his head Dubas was. Any other team would have moved one of the 3 to send a message, but the Leafs double and triple down on them.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So you don’t think paying Marner 10.9mil as a RFA for the past 5 years was a mistake?

No. Paying Marner a contract consistent with post-ELC contract history that he has outperformed over the past 5 years was obviously not a mistake.

 

[thusk]

if leafs want to raise Matthews /nylander/ marner/jt and depht contribution come playoff, they need to upgrade the D, its the only way they will be able..

If they play lesd in defensive zone and more in the offensive side, they will get more offensive opportunities to score and help to raise offensive of everyone...

i will tell something who will maybe make react people here...

Mackinnon is not a batter player than Matthews

i not sure if pastrnak is really a better than marner or nylander...

just watch how many time average by game those player play in the defensive zone vs offensive zone.

Boston and Coloradonrarely defending a lot during a game... How many pts did they get for the only reason they didn't had to defend as much + fact they got more thann1 D able to be involve in the offensive game?

Switch mackinnon and pastrnak in Toronto and the reality is i dont think they would get better stats than matthews/ marner or nylander and thats including playoff.

 

[notDatsyuk]

The biggest problem is we don't have enough talent to distribute effectively throughout the line up. We don't have an option to replace JT at 2C, that isn't a case of not recognizing a weakness, that is accepting reality. I'm just suggesting what I consider to be the best use of what we have. You may think differently, cheers.

JT is still effective on the PP, but at even strength I think either Domi or Nylander would be better at 2C.

 

[Bomber0104]

So you don’t think paying Marner 10.9mil as a RFA for the past 5 years was a mistake? Pastrnak just signed for 300k more, not 5 years ago, now. That’s madness, no other way around it.

Even if you think Marner/Matthews/Nylander deals are "fair" value-wise, the fact of the matter is every other team in the league are somehow getting these types of players for "more fair" deals which makes ours look bad in comparison due to incompetent negotiating (beginning with Dubas, continued with Tre), selfish players who aren't making concessions for the greater good of the team, or both.

It's quite open and shut.

Every single one of these contracts (save for Morgan Rielly) have been both player-friendly and precedent-shattering.

 

[darrylsittler27]

We can criticize Dubas but Tre just folded to Nylander. We have no choice but to dump a top 4 guy and address all our other issues after this year when they do the re- re package(no Keefe). Not one of Tres signings looks like the are worth their money, unless you TD them. This is a much weaker version of last years playoff version. Let's hope a goalie gets red hot and can win the first round because those 3rd and 4th lines and defense wont be why.

 

[notDatsyuk]

We can criticize Dubas but Tre just folded to Nylander. We have no choice but to dump a top 4 guy and address all our other issues after this year when they do the re- re package(no Keefe). Not one of Tres signings looks like the are worth their money, unless you TD them. This is a much weaker version of last years playoff version. Let's hope a goalie gets red hot and can win the first round because those 3rd and 4th lines and defense wont be why.

You could look at it as the second best player on the team will be the second highest paid for at least one year, depending on what happens with Marner.

Or if you prefer, the third best player will be the second highest for one year, at which point he will become either the second best or the third highest paid.

I agree that 11.5 is too much, but looking solely in the context of Leafs salaries, it's about right. If Matty was getting 12, JT 10, and Mitch 9, 10 for Willy would be reasonable (and a year later, 0 for JT and 10 for Mitch).

Again, that seems to all start with the overpayments by Dubas.

 

[Budz]

I’m no Dubas apologist, but Covid really hurt us with regards to the lack of normal cap growth. Making all those deals looking worse.

 

[Sypher04]

I’ve been really disappointed to see how much of a perimeter player Bertuzzi has been here.

if leafs want to raise Matthews /nylander/ marner/jt and depht contribution come playoff, they need to upgrade the D, its the only way they will be able..

If they play lesd in defensive zone and more in the offensive side, they will get more offensive opportunities to score and help to raise offensive of everyone...

i will tell something who will maybe make react people here...

Mackinnon is not a batter player than Matthews

i not sure if pastrnak is really a better than marner or nylander...

just watch how many time average by game those player play in the defensive zone vs offensive zone.

Boston and Coloradonrarely defending a lot during a game... How many pts did they get for the only reason they didn't had to defend as much + fact they got more thann1 D able to be involve in the offensive game?

Switch mackinnon and pastrnak in Toronto and the reality is i dont think they would get better stats than matthews/ marner or nylander and thats including playoff.

Agreed. We spend far too much time in our own zone and that’s been a big part of some of our offensive inconsistency. It’s tiring and limits their time they can actually be producing. It also doesn’t help that our best two defensive forwards play together and the guys behind them are almost all suspect. This means we are forced to run our guys head to head with best players on other clubs regularly to limit chances against

 

[thusk]

I’ve been really disappointed to see how much of a perimeter player Bertuzzi has been here.



Agreed. We spend far too much time in our own zone and that’s been a big part of some of our offensive inconsistency. It’s tiring and limits their time they can actually be producing. It also doesn’t help that our best two defensive forwards play together and the guys behind them are almost all suspect. This means we are forced to run our guys head to head with best players on other clubs regularly to limit chances against

i will add last 2 post season, marner had been on the icr for 47% of every 5v5 leafs goal?

It is becaude he was better offensivly or just the fact when Marner was on the ice was the moment where leafs had the most time of possession ?

Whatever how good you are, if you have to defend 65 of time and attackb35 of time, you will not produce as much than if youre attacking 65% of the time and defending 35%.

After we sit here and talk about how great kucherov was in 2nd scenatio, how great mackinnon was in second scenario... and etc.. but dont undestand they played 20-30% more in the offensive side just because guy behind in D was better

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Even Gordon Ramsay can't cook a rotten steak into a five star meal.

I remember one Christmas after the annual big family fight we went and barbequed hot dogs. The turkey was a casualty of the war. Lucky we had something good to fall back on because the stores were all closed.

Four players on this team have scored 96 goals.

The rest have combined for 66. It wouldn't surprise me if this was the largest disparity in the league. Yet Treliving tells us he won't be making any major moves this TDL.

I guess the thought of adding some quality secondary scoring in case of injury never occured to him.

It's like he lacks the ability to think ahead. He just does whatever the first thought that comes into mind is. Hopes he gets lucky so he can tell everyone he knew all along that package of mystery meat was really prime beef.

The same old story about turning hot dogs into steak.

 

[BallardEra]

2 goals in the last 2 for Tavares:


Tavares - 3 goals in last 15
Jarnkrok - 2 goals in last 16 (injured)
Bertuzzi - 1 goal in last 28
Gregor - 1 goal in last 23
Kampf - 1 goal in last 21 (injured)
Knies - 1 goal in last 20
Domi - 1 goal in last 18

 

[notDatsyuk]

2 goals in the last 2 for Tavares:


Tavares - 3 goals in last 15
Jarnkrok - 2 goals in last 16 (injured)
Bertuzzi - 1 goal in last 28
Gregor - 1 goal in last 23
Kampf - 1 goal in last 21 (injured)
Knies - 1 goal in last 20
Domi - 1 goal in last 18

Tavares has zero goals and only two assists at 5-on-5 in his last 21 games.

 

[Dreakmur]

No. Paying Marner a contract consistent with post-ELC contract history that he has outperformed over the past 5 years was obviously not a mistake.

So why have they repeatedly lost? Dubas never made a mistake, but they still couldn't win.

Bad luck I guess.....

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

2 goals in the last 2 for Tavares:


Tavares - 3 goals in last 15
Jarnkrok - 2 goals in last 16 (injured)
Bertuzzi - 1 goal in last 28
Gregor - 1 goal in last 23
Kampf - 1 goal in last 21 (injured)
Knies - 1 goal in last 20
Domi - 1 goal in last 18

7 of 12 forwards with basically no production over the last 20 games is ridiculous.

People need to stop whining about the big 4 and Treliving needs to address the nearly $15M in dead cap space over that stretch in Bertuzzi/Domi/Jarnkrok/Kampf/Reaves.

Call up Steeves at least and give him a shot. Gregor and Mcmann are easily replaceable too.

Robertson-Matthews-Marner
Knies-Tavares-Nylander
Steeves-???-???
Holmberg-???-???
Gregor

Gives you nearly $15M to work with without touching the D or goaltending. You should easily be able to find two RW and two C's that can contribute SOMETHING for that money, probably even with some left over to address the D.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So why have they repeatedly lost? Dubas never made a mistake, but they still couldn't win.

Nobody ever said Dubas never made a mistake, but signing one of our best players is not one of them, or why we've lost.