Scandella Trade

[Wildfish]

Dumba +15, 1325 min ES TOI. Scandella team worst for defenseman at -2, ES TOI 1163. BS to claim some match-up difference IMO. Suter-Spurgeon were matched up against the other team's #1 line the vast majority of the time in comparison. Yeah, Dumba makes some spectacularly stupid bone head D plays, but Scandella fails often, too.

Dumba tied for #21-25 for the most goals by an NHL defense man with 11. Scandella's 4 goals don't register.

Leave out emotions when you evaluate player's worth. Scandella is 4 1/2 years older than Dumba. IMO some people here are in HATE-DUMBA mode, being emotional, not rational. Easy, no brainier to give greater value to Dumba over Scandella.

I think you could make a better case for Scandella over Brodin...

 

[MuckOG]

I feel better about this trade then I did on the day it happened. If Ennis can truly rebound from his injuries and find some chemistry with someone than I'll feel even better about it.

 

[Eye Floater]

I wasn't crazy about it when it happened, but it has grown on me over time.

I'm a believer in Olofsson and I think that he can replace what Scandella brought (not immediately, but over time). Pominville, although he put up decent point totals for his ice time, was a very frustrating player with all of his missed shot/opportunities and we clearly wanted to shed his contract. Even though Foligno and Ennis are both a bit of a wildcard, it gives us far better forward depth than we had last year, as we won't have to put fringe roster players like Schroeder and Graovac out there. If we can get Cullen for the 4C duties our forward depth is very solid.

I think we were all hoping for picks/prospects for Scandella, but in retrospect, we should have all known that is not Fletcher's MO and he is trying to help us win now.

 

[DANOZ28]

i dont , i just cant see how quincey & murphy or even olofsson will replace scandella. im crossing my fingers we still have a top 5 D core.

 

[nickschultzfan]

The issue with Dumba has very little to do with Dumba and everything to do with the NHL and how players like Dumba are valued. Dumba is overvalued greatly the same way as Camelo Anthony is valued in the NBA. Melo puts up +20 ppg. He is awesome! Give him huge money! Build a team around him! Except you do that and you end up like the Knicks.

A championship blueline is boring. It's not flashy. It's not complex. It's not interesting. It puts you, and the other team, to sleep. Sure, it has 1 or 2 stars, at least half of it is bargain guys who do little but bring you consistency and clutch stops.

Top Ten Skills of a Defensemen
1. Timing / Anticipation
2. Reliability / Knowledge of game
3. Body Positioning
4. Stick Positioning
5. Skating
6. Passing
7. Puck battles / Leverage
8. Energy conservation / Conditioning
9. Quick shot
10. Physicality

Dumba has very little of those skills, which acknowledged by everybody when they say that "he is still young - he'll improve". Great, but we have bet a ton on that, and bet even more recently, and are going to have to bet a big contract on it because he is going to have 15-goals this year. But there is little proof that he is ever going to be more than a bottom pairing guy on a great team.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Every single one of your top 10 skills can be improved with work/experience.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Dumba +15, 1325 min ES TOI. Scandella team worst for defenseman at -2, ES TOI 1163. BS to claim some match-up difference IMO. Suter-Spurgeon were matched up against the other team's #1 line the vast majority of the time in comparison. Yeah, Dumba makes some spectacularly stupid bone head D plays, but Scandella fails often, too.

Dumba tied for #21-25 for the most goals by an NHL defense man with 11. Scandella's 4 goals don't register.

Leave out emotions when you evaluate player's worth. Scandella is 4 1/2 years older than Dumba. IMO some people here are in HATE-DUMBA mode, being emotional, not rational. Easy, no brainier to give greater value to Dumba over Scandella.

I think you could make a better case for Scandella over Brodin...

Not all bad goals are equal. Bad goals at bad times make all the difference.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Every single one of your top 10 skills can be improved with work/experience.

In theory, every skill can.

But your theory has very little practical use. Especially to a professional sports team, where everything is won and lost on the margins. Teams have a finite time to get players to maximize their skills while their physical bodies are at peak performance. There are other players with values moving up and down. Contracts. Roster constraints. Competition.

Speed to mastery or even just competency is everything.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

In theory, every skill can.

But your theory has very little practical use. Especially to a professional sports team, where everything is won and lost on the margins. Teams have a finite time to get players to maximize their skills while their physical bodies are at peak performance. There are other players with values moving up and down. Contracts. Roster constraints. Competition.

Speed to mastery or even just competency is everything.

The "theory of general player improvement" has a lot of practical use.

It's why trading Granlund away when he was an 8 goal, 40 point 23 year old center would've been a terrible decision, only 2 short years later.

 

[BagHead]

Not all bad goals are equal. Bad goals at bad times make all the difference.

If that's how you feel, we really need a discussion about Brodin, as well. Sure, Dumba is more mistake prone than Brodin, and some of those mistakes have had an impact in games, but by no means has he alone had the highest impact mistakes on the team. On top of that, he's a guy that can and has gone out there and won games for the Wild. You need safe guys on defense who can get you through 90% of the game without incident, but you also need guys who can make things happen when you're down a goal, and making things happen involves risk.

The Penguins have that player in Letang. They won the Cup without Letang, but the way they did that was by playing a fast, sometimes high risk game with their forwards because their forwards have speedsters like Kessel, Guentzel, Cullen and Sheary, along with highly skilled, still fast players like Malkin, and Crosby. Man, if we had that level of speed and skill up front we could lose a Dumba-type guy on the back and be fine.

 

[nickschultzfan]

The "theory of general player improvement" has a lot of practical use.

It's why trading Granlund away when he was an 8 goal, 40 point 23 year old center would've been a terrible decision, only 2 short years later.

Yes, I said that players never improve. Oh wait. I said nothing of the sort. Player valuation depends on present contribution and reasonable projections of future development.

By saying Dumba will improve on critical Dman skills, you are essentially admitting that Dumba's present defensive contribution is low. He's mostly all projection. So, he'll improve his timing and anticipation. He'll improve his reliability and knowledge of the game. He'll improve his position. He'll improve stick positioning. He'll improve his backward skating. He'll improve his passing. He'll improve his puck battles. Etc. All fine.

But stop pretending that his improvement doesn't have a speed. Or that other people aren't noticing it and tracking it. And it's not as fast as needed to justify the massive investment made in him.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yes, I said that players never improve. Oh wait. I said nothing of the sort. Player valuation depends on present contribution and reasonable projections of future development.

By saying Dumba will improve on critical Dman skills, you are essentially admitting that Dumba's present defensive contribution is low. He's mostly all projection. So, he'll improve his timing and anticipation. He'll improve his reliability and knowledge of the game. He'll improve his position. He'll improve stick positioning. He'll improve his backward skating. He'll improve his passing. He'll improve his puck battles. Etc. All fine.

But stop pretending that his improvement doesn't have a speed. Or that other people aren't noticing it and tracking it. And it's not as fast as needed to justify the massive investment made in him.

No, I'm not at all. I'm admitting that it's lower than what I expect it to be this year, or next year, or when he finally reaches Scandella's current age.

Nobody here is saying that we should've held onto Dumba because he's finally going to be the defenseman that we think he's going to be when he's 32. It's because we think it's going to be when he's 24/25/26. We understand that reaching potential sooner rather than later is an important thing; some of us just have a lot more faith than you do that he'll do it.

 

[TaLoN]

Also, many of us see that he's not nearly as bad at those things now than is being implied... yet will still improve on them going forward at the same time.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Also, many of us see that he's not nearly as bad at those things now than is being implied... yet will still improve on them going forward at the same time.

Dumba is nowhere near as bad defensively as people keep saying. Some narratives are never shaken.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Dumba is nowhere near as bad defensively as people keep saying. Some narratives are never shaken.

Yeah, we were unfair to Cam Barker.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yeah, we were unfair to Cam Barker.

I'll bet you $10,000 that Matt Dumba isn't run out of the NHL by the age of 27.

 

[nickschultzfan]

If the Wild didn't have Dumba on the roster, who would have traded for him this summer with a 7th overall pick, Haula, and Tuch? And then to make roster/cap room as a result of said trade, we trade away Scandella and Pominville for Foligno and Ennis? And then let Folin walk for Quincy because we had needed more vets in the bottom-3?

Would anybody have done those moves? Because that is the actual cost of keeping Dumba. Which is why I am not entirely happy with Fletcher's decisions.

Dumba is a fine young player. And he has a role on a good team. However, we seem to like to dump good money after bad with hoping to justify our prior investment.

 

[TaLoN]

If the Wild didn't have Dumba on the roster, who would have traded for him this summer with a 7th overall pick, Haula, and Tuch? And then to make roster/cap room as a result of said trade, we trade away Scandella and Pominville for Foligno and Ennis? And then let Folin walk for Quincy because we had needed more vets in the bottom-3?

Would anybody have done those moves? Because that is the actual cost of keeping Dumba. Which is why I am not entirely happy with Fletcher's decisions.

Dumba is a fine young player. And he has a role on a good team. However, we seem to like to dump good money after bad with hoping to justify our prior investment.

Dumba wasn't going anywhere regardless of any of those trades. We had nobody to take his right handed minutes... don't say Brodin either, because he has now shown he's much better on the left side than the right.

You keep saying the cost of keeping Dumba was the Scandella trade, yet it was Scandella that clearly struggled all of last season playing 5th defenseman minutes, not Dumba playing 3rd defenseman minutes.

Dumba was going to stay either way. Scandella and Brodin were both on the verge of being traded prior to the expansion draft, trading Tuch for a 3rd to get Vegas to take Haula was so neither of those trades had to happen.

Moving Scandella allows Brodin to get the minutes he deserves and gets a big discount in price for the 5th defenseman.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Dumba wasn't going anywhere regardless of any of those trades. We had nobody to take his right handed minutes... don't say Brodin either, because he has now shown he's much better on the left side than the right.

You keep saying the cost of keeping Dumba was the Scandella trade, yet it was Scandella that clearly struggled all of last season playing 5th defenseman minutes, not Dumba playing 3rd defenseman minutes.

Dumba was going to stay either way. Scandella and Brodin were both on the verge of being traded prior to the expansion draft, trading Tuch for a 3rd to get Vegas to take Haula was so neither of those trades had to happen.

Moving Scandella allows Brodin to get the minutes he deserves and gets a big discount in price for the 5th defenseman.

The expansion draft was the prime mover this entire off-season. Wild decided to protect Brodin and expose Scandella and Dumba. Had the Wild been sure that Vegas was going to take Scandella, there would have been no need to do a deal, as the Wild would have gained 4 million in cap and been in a better spot than where they are now.

That means pretty much everything done this offseason was to keep Dumba (with a bonus of getting a little more size on the wing).

My primary point is not that Dumba is a bad player.

It's that he was the correct choice to sacrifice to the Expansion Gods.

 

[TaLoN]

The expansion draft was the prime mover this entire off-season. Wild decided to protect Brodin and expose Scandella and Dumba. Had the Wild been sure that Vegas was going to take Scandella, there would have been no need to do a deal, as the Wild would have gained 4 million in cap and been in a better spot than where they are now.

That means pretty much everything done this offseason was to keep Dumba (with a bonus of getting a little more size on the wing).

My primary point is not that Dumba is a bad player.

It's that he was the correct choice to sacrifice to the Expansion Gods.

The Wild protection list was submitted after the deal was made with Vegas, not before. Had the deal with Vegas not happened, the other two trades would have. Vegas dealt because they had to to maximize their own return for the draft.

Dumba would have been the worst possible sacrifice to the draft with Brodin second.

Haula was going to go anyways and the Wild wanted to move on from Pominville. If Ennis is healthy he's potentially better than Pominville moving forward for cheaper.

This brought in Foligno which Fletcher is very high on... if he's the player Fletcher and Flahr think he is, it's a good deal.

Also keep in mind that had the Vegas deal not been made, either Zucker or Staal could've been the pick as well, which would have been pretty bad too.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The expansion draft was the prime mover this entire off-season. Wild decided to protect Brodin and expose Scandella and Dumba. Had the Wild been sure that Vegas was going to take Scandella, there would have been no need to do a deal, as the Wild would have gained 4 million in cap and been in a better spot than where they are now.

That means pretty much everything done this offseason was to keep Dumba (with a bonus of getting a little more size on the wing).

My primary point is not that Dumba is a bad player.

It's that he was the correct choice to sacrifice to the Expansion Gods.

And that's highly debatable. The total impact of all of these follow up moves might barely move the meter, depending on how guys like Olofsson and Ennis perform.

But you're right, if Dumba turns out to be Cam Barker, then we made a pretty big mistake; however, if Dumba turns out to be Brent Burns, then your way would've been a disaster. Those seem to be the two ends of the spectrum; my guess is that it'll fall somewhere in the middle.

 

[nickschultzfan]

And that's highly debatable. The total impact of all of these follow up moves might barely move the meter, depending on how guys like Olofsson and Ennis perform.

But you're right, if Dumba turns out to be Cam Barker, then we made a pretty big mistake; however, if Dumba turns out to be Brent Burns, then your way would've been a disaster. Those seem to be the two ends of the spectrum; my guess is that it'll fall somewhere in the middle.

I agree that he is probably somewhere in the middle.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Another factor to think about; Spurgeon and Brodin have sustained nagging injuries in the past few years. Spurgeon hasn't hit 80 games in his career and missed around 6 last year (who knows how many more he might have missed), and Brodin has missed more than that. Olofsson can't stay health himself. My worry is that Kyle Quincy is going to be a top 4 defenseman for a few games along with Ryan Murphy and we'll have to sign back Nate Prosser for that 5th spot.

 

[TaLoN]

Another factor to think about; Spurgeon and Brodin have sustained nagging injuries in the past few years. Spurgeon hasn't hit 80 games in his career and missed around 6 last year (who knows how many more he might have missed), and Brodin has missed more than that. Olofsson can't stay health himself. My worry is that Kyle Quincy is going to be a top 4 defenseman for a few games along with Ryan Murphy and we'll have to sign back Nate Prosser for that 5th spot.

We still have Reilly to play if needed as well.

 

[Wildfish]

The expansion draft was the prime mover this entire off-season. Wild decided to protect Brodin and expose Scandella and Dumba. Had the Wild been sure that Vegas was going to take Scandella, there would have been no need to do a deal, as the Wild would have gained 4 million in cap and been in a better spot than where they are now.

That means pretty much everything done this offseason was to keep Dumba (with a bonus of getting a little more size on the wing).

My primary point is not that Dumba is a bad player.

It's that he was the correct choice to sacrifice to the Expansion Gods.

The Wild's protected list was just a formality, the deal was already in place. IMO the deal made perfect sense - Haula was blocking EEk and needed a new contract that the team couldn't afford. Tuch was pushed down the prospect list by Kunin and Greenway. Both clearly expendable. Scandella was way overpriced to be a #5, 3rd pairing Dman, he needed to be moved for Cap room. Better to lose Brodin or Dumba for nothing and still have Pominville's albatross contract? And still lose Haula by walking away from the arbitration award because the team couldn't afford him?

Dumba still has another year at $2.5 mil, that's a significant fact. IMO you grossly underestimate his value. Defensemen who score double digits in goals are very valuable. No denying he makes a few too many critical bone-head mistakes but the fact is he just turned 23 years old. But Scandella gets beat fairly often, too. He's no Rod Langway defensive defenseman stud, far from it.

Like I posted, I think you're posting emotionally, not rationally. Dumba, as an asset, is far more valuable than Scandella. Hell, give Dumba experience and prime PP time and 15 goals is not crazy, he might even hit 20 goals some season, a very rare thing for a Dman nowadays.

And go back to the Plus-Minus - is Dumba really that bad defensively? People love to hate on that stat when it doesn't support their guy but when you compare players on the same team, I think it is very illustrative of their play.