Confirmed with Link: Sabres re-sign Dahlin 8 years $88 million ($11 million AAV)

HogtownSabresfan

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Jan 13, 2010
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Why is that? If he had a source that reported that Dahlin wanted 4 or 5 year deal, it could have been true at the time, or it could have been something he and his agent were throwing around. It is not unusual in contract negotiations to have a lot of different contract terms and amounts floated between the two parties negotiating.

He laid out multiple different scenarios to the point it became meaningless. Don't get me wrong, I love the podcast and listening to what those guys have to say. I'll put up with them guessing or speculating all day long because they actually give an honest opinion on Sabres and are not beholden to anyone.

If I appear to be dumping on Peters, I apologize. I love those guys, even when I disagree.
 

HogtownSabresfan

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Jan 13, 2010
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I don't see anyone here shitting all over the Dahlin contract. Not at all.

If you're talking about the main forum......we could have signed him to an 8 year deal at a $1M AAV and people over there would shit all over it. Doesn't mean a damned thing.

Personally, I'm not dumping on the contract. I'm extremely happy it got gone. Pags reached into his pocket a bit and paid some upfront money — and I really doubted he would. The cap hit could have been reduced with more upfront money (you don't understand the concept of money if anyone cannot see that), but I accept it is an enormous lift to max that out and really impacts cash flow for a small market team.

The Sabres did right on this deal. Nothing is perfect, but this is a way better outcome than I had hoped for with Dahlin.
 

old kummelweck

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Nov 10, 2003
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He laid out multiple different scenarios to the point it became meaningless. Don't get me wrong, I love the podcast and listening to what those guys have to say. I'll put up with them guessing or speculating all day long because they actually give an honest opinion on Sabres and are not beholden to anyone.

If I appear to be dumping on Peters, I apologize. I love those guys, even when I disagree.
I honestly think Peters has a few sources and reports what he hears. He's not a journalist, so he probably doesn't confirm from a second source like some of the more 'serious reporters' that cover the NHL.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
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Now we need the cap to go up
They could enter the offseason with 13-15 guys signed (it all depends on how many of the guys on ELCs you project to be on the roster next year), over $30M in cap space, and only Power and Mitts being RFAs that are looking for big raises.

They are not going to be in cap jail next season even after this deal.
 

Chainshot

Give 'em Enough Rope
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Feb 28, 2002
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isnt there any unemployment protection? please excuse my curiosity
anyways I hope you find something soon!

That was good for a deep chortle. Not that I am eligible for and when I was, the $400 a month wasn't exactly going to go far. That's right... per month.

And thanks! Back at it today.

Now, back to Dahlin. :D
 

HogtownSabresfan

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Jan 13, 2010
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I honestly think Peters has a few sources and reports what he hears. He's not a journalist, so he probably doesn't confirm from a second source like some of the more 'serious reporters' that cover the NHL.

Likely. My view is take what he says with some extra grains of salt
 

Dubi Doo

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Maybe, just maybe, Kevyn Adams and the Sabres front office have more information with the future of the cap than we do as fans...

Also, this was not a huge overpayment if Dahlin remains a top 5-10 D in the NHL for the vast majority of the deal. And given how young he is, he should be in his prime for the vast majority of this deal, if not the entirety of it.

And if it took $11M AAV to get him signed for 8 years, Adams had zero choice. Waiting was not going to make the price go down in all likelihood. And signing him to a 4-5 year at a lower AAV would not be smart.

The length of the contract is what makes this deal reasonable. I was worried we were going to do 10X4, and then have to pay him 12M on his next contract. It's about .5M-1M more than I thought he'd get. I'd happily pay a bit extra to ensure he's a Sabre for 8 years.
 

Jim Bob

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The length of the contract is what makes this deal reasonable. I was worried we were going to do 10X4, and then have to pay him 12M on his next contract. It's about .5M-1M more than I thought he'd get. I'd happily pay a bit extra to ensure he's a Sabre for 8 years.
Same.

Honestly, if we look at the UFA years it buys and compare this to the UFA year heavy contracts that Seth Jones and Darnell Nurse signed, this looks just fine.
 

joshjull

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Do you have anything to back up the bolded? I find it odd that you think this because most calculations in the CBA use percentages, e.g. revenue sharing between teams and players, minimum and maximum annual values for contracts, variance in salaries between years, bonus allocations, just to name a few.
The part you bolded in my previous post is referring to what I posted before it. Which is, I don't see GMs/agents getting so far into the weeds that they are looking at the tenth or even hundredth place when working on deals.

What I was trying to say with that is, I don't see a GM coming into talks saying I want your client at 11.67% and the agent counters with 13.67%.

Building on that point.... They are going to look at comparable players % of the cap. But it's going to be a range and a starting point. In Dahlin's case the range would be roughly 11% to 14%. Then the parties involved will work through things like how he stacks up to these players, RFA vs UFA years, length of deal, age, etc. to see where he'll fall in that range.

All those factors matter because they're what determined where the comparable players fell in that range. Actual salaries, AAVs and how the comparable players' contracts are structured become part of the discussion at this point as well.
I would say percentage of cap at the time of signing is one of the most predictive measures for player value. That's not to say it can't evolve, which we've seen this year with the Matthews and Dahlin contracts, but that doesn't make it less meaningful as a metric to be used in discussion and setting expectations.

They're not evolutions. They're products of the same process I discussed above. The results aren't surprising.

Matthews % on his new deal is roughly the same as Mack's and both are below McDavid's. About what you'd expect.

Dahlin's % falls roughly where you'd expect as well. Below the two 8yr deals that have 8 UFA years (Doughty/Karlsson) but above those with fewer UFA years (Werenski/Fox/Makar). McAvoy is the outlier.
 
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HogtownSabresfan

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Jan 13, 2010
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The part you bolded in my previous post is referring to what I posted before it. Which is, I don't see GMs/agents getting so far into the weeds that they are looking at the tenth or even hundredth place when working on deals.

What I was trying to say with that is, I don't see a GM coming into talks saying I want your client at 11.67% and the agent counters with 13.67%.

Building on that point.... They are going to look at comparable players % of the cap. But it's going to be a range and a starting point. In Dahlin's case the range would be roughly 11% to 14%. Then the parties involved will work through things like how he stacks up to these players, RFA vs UFA years, length of deal, age, etc. to see where he'll fall in that range.

All those factors matter because they're what determined where the comparable players fell in that range. Actual salaries, AAVs and how the comparable players' contracts are structured become part of the discussion at this point as well.


They're not evolutions. They're products of the same process I discussed above. The results aren't surprising.

Matthews % on his new deal is roughly the same as Mack's and both are below McDavid's. About what you'd expect.

Dahlin's % falls roughly where you'd expect as well. Below the two 8yr deals that have 8 UFA years (Doughty/Karlsson) but above those with fewer UFA years (Werenski/Fox/Makar). McAvoy is the outlier.

The cap percentage is obviously a key factor, but I'm really surprised how few people seem to get how important it is as to how the contract is paid out (ie: front-loaded), and the impact it has on total value in real dollars. The cap hit can be brought down on the edges by front-loading a deal more because you get to the same dollar value at then once you consider you are getting the money up front.

I realize you are both discussing something else but feel this is a key point.
 

Dingo44

We already won the trade
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Keep getting mad about a guaranteed contract that doesn't even kick in until 2024 - 2025 season and runs for eight years.
 

HaNotsri

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Dec 29, 2013
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I think it's a bit too much. *shrug*

I've also been focused elsewhere. If I don't find some employment soon, I will be doing the Good, the Bad, and the Living Under a Bridge on game nights. :biglaugh:
When my friend worked in Norway during the winter he tried to save money by sleeping near the exhaust of a parking garage. It was a little bit warmer than under a bridge but the air was probably less than ideal to breathe in.

Good luck with the job hunt, the stress sucks but it is always fun to begin at a new place.

On topic - I still love the deal. 7 ufa years is amazing.
 

Gras

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The cap percentage is obviously a key factor, but I'm really surprised how few people seem to get how important it is as to how the contract is paid out (ie: front-loaded), and the impact it has on total value in real dollars. The cap hit can be brought down on the edges by front-loading a deal more because you get to the same dollar value at then once you consider you are getting the money up front.

I realize you are both discussing something else but feel this is a key point.
Any salary variance in adjacent years now cannot exceed 25% of the salary in the first contract year and the lowest salary year cannot be less than 60% of the highest salary year.

So what you think he would have signed for an 8x82 if you structured it, which is basically the limit of front loading since the variance is 61%

Season2024-252025-262026-272027-282028-292029-302030-312031-32
Contract Year12345678
Salary (in $M)$ 13,000,000.000$ 13,000,000.000$ 13,000,000.000$ 11,000,000.000$ 8,000,000.000$ 8,000,000.000$ 8,000,000.000$ 8,000,000.000
Contract Length8
First Half Term4
Sum of First Half Salaries$ 50,000,000.00
First Half Averaged Amt$ 12,500,000.00
AAV$ 10,250,000.00
 

ValJamesDuex

Registered User
Nov 4, 2021
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I honestly think Peters has a few sources and reports what he hears. He's not a journalist, so he probably doesn't confirm from a second source like some of the more 'serious reporters' that cover the NHL.
his Eichel trade source lived in his basement for 2 years :D
 
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brian_griffin

"Eric Cartman?"
May 10, 2007
16,696
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In the Panderverse
Been away for a few days (travel past couple weeks, and stayed out of this forum once I got home to catch up on things around the homestead).
After the Bills debacle Sunday AM, I didn't want to check in here.
Logged in today looking for Milano news (leg surgery needed per Schefter?).
Was pleased to see the Dahlin signing.
All is not gloom and doom in Buffalo sports...
 

Deep Blue Metallic

Bo knows hockey.
Mar 5, 2021
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Maybe, just maybe, Kevyn Adams and the Sabres front office have more information with the future of the cap than we do as fans...

Also, this was not a huge overpayment if Dahlin remains a top 5-10 D in the NHL for the vast majority of the deal. And given how young he is, he should be in his prime for the vast majority of this deal, if not the entirety of it.

And if it took $11M AAV to get him signed for 8 years, Adams had zero choice. Waiting was not going to make the price go down in all likelihood. And signing him to a 4-5 year at a lower AAV would not be smart.

It is an overpayment, but not a *huge* one. If it was absolutely necessary to lock Dahlin up for an 8-year term, it's acceptable. The (probably false) talk of him wanting 4-5 years was concerning.

Moving on ...

Go Sabres!
 

tsujimoto74

Moderator
May 28, 2012
29,918
22,081


Maybe, just maybe, Kevyn Adams and the Sabres front office have more information with the future of the cap than we do as fans...

Also, this was not a huge overpayment if Dahlin remains a top 5-10 D in the NHL for the vast majority of the deal. And given how young he is, he should be in his prime for the vast majority of this deal, if not the entirety of it.

And if it took $11M AAV to get him signed for 8 years, Adams had zero choice. Waiting was not going to make the price go down in all likelihood. And signing him to a 4-5 year at a lower AAV would not be smart.


The thing about that chart is that it’s not even close to showing where Dahlin is *now* and where he’s trending because it includes data from the times when He Who Shall Not Be Named was coaching.
 

MarkusKetterer

Shoulda got one game in
The cap percentage is obviously a key factor, but I'm really surprised how few people seem to get how important it is as to how the contract is paid out (ie: front-loaded), and the impact it has on total value in real dollars. The cap hit can be brought down on the edges by front-loading a deal more because you get to the same dollar value at then once you consider you are getting the money up front.

I realize you are both discussing something else but feel this is a key point.

No matter how much money is fronted, Dahlin’s caphit will always be $11M per year. Marner and Matthews both only got paid $900K for the year on their contract. The Leafs still got hit with a huge AAV because the cap isn’t based on salary, but years of it.
 

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