Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2017-18

[Mortimer Snerd]

Matt Cane has put together a model to predict NHL contracts. The Cane’s model successfully predicted Evander Kane’s $7 million AAV earlier this off season. Has become a quite popular tool.

Trouba is predicted to be 1 year at $4.5 million.

Cane model for predicting contracts and length can be viewed at the following hyperlink here

He's got Trouba odds of contract length at:
-1 year 26%
-2 year 15%
-3 year 17%
-4 year 9%
-5 year 6%
-6 year 10%
-7 year 10%
-8 year 5%

That looks a little off to me - to put it mildly.

What successes, other than Kane does he have?

I can see a fairly high probability of 1 year. That would be an arb award. 2 years should be very close to 0% chance, 3 years not much more.

 

[scarbrow21]

There are relatively few posters here on the Winnipeg site that post contract suggestions that are off by the huge amounts you suggest. We're all aware of the current cap of $75 million and with access to sites like CapFriendly where the math is done for you, it becomes clear to even the casual fan that every dollar saved is of paramount importance, particularly with 10 RFA's to sign.

While it is true that many fans do indeed expect blind loyalty, the players themselves certainly feel some degree of loyalty to their organization with far more feeling a larger degree of loyalty to their teammates. The salary cap era has made players realize that taking a larger share of the pie may reap financial dividends, but that this money is ultimately coming from a teammates pocket. More importantly to play on a winner requires quality teammates. Quality teammates cost money.

I would suggest a good portion of the signings suggested will be fairly accurate. As for trades, good luck. Personally I avoid ever suggesting a trade or even reading of them. There are far too many variables to ever guess right. Of the thousands of trades suggested on the Winnipeg boards alone I don't believe one has ever been right. On the contrary many contracts have been guessed correctly in terms of salary & term.

What's interesting is after suggesting posters are consistently off by $1-$2 million dollars you post a 7 year suggestion for $7 million, over a full million beyond what insiders suggest & contract term exceeding any suggestion I've read anywhere.

Trades are hypothetical guesses and I agree based on too many variables. Signings are based on statistical analysis and comparable contracts. The main factor why signings are (and always will be) closer or at least seem as such is because one is all but assured to happen and very rarely are there hold out situations. So at that point you differ to the comparables and stats analysis and come up with a way more educated guess.

 

[Maukkis]

Matt Cane has put together a model to predict NHL contracts. The Cane’s model successfully predicted Evander Kane’s $7 million AAV earlier this off season. Has become a quite popular tool.

Trouba is predicted to be 1 year at $4.5 million.

Cane model for predicting contracts and length can be viewed at the following hyperlink here

He's got Trouba odds of contract length at:
-1 year 26%
-2 year 15%
-3 year 17%
-4 year 9%
-5 year 6%
-6 year 10%
-7 year 10%
-8 year 5%

How does that model work? I'd like to see more before giving it too much weight.

(but, as a biased fan, I'll happily believe Mr. Cane and get Morrissey locked up for 8x4)

 

[cbcwpg]

The NHL Goaltending Market: Masked men on the move this summer | The Hockey News

Goalies on the move?

PHILIPP GRUBAUER (RFA)
ROBIN LEHNER (RFA)
CARTER HUTTON (UFA)
JONATHAN BERNIER (UFA)
ANTON KHUDOBIN (UFA)
KARI LEHTONEN (UFA)
JAROSLAV HALAK (UFA)
MICHAEL HUTCHINSON (UFA)
PETR MRAZEK (RFA)
CAM WARD (UFA)

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

How does that model work? I'd like to see more before giving it too much weight.

(but, as a biased fan, I'll happily believe Mr. Cane and get Morrissey locked up for 8x4)

Matt holds a Bachelor’s degree in Engineering and Management from McMaster University, and a Master of Science in Applied Math from Ryerson University, and is currently employed in Risk Management at a Canadian bank. Same numbers game used in risk management is being applied.

That looks a little off to me - to put it mildly.

What successes, other than Kane does he have?

I can see a fairly high probability of 1 year. That would be an arb award. 2 years should be very close to 0% chance, 3 years not much more.

All the results are in the spreadsheet. If you had looked you'd have noticed that all signings are listed showing predicted AAV/length vs. signed AAV/length.

Kane's contract was off by only 1.5%, Domi 16% and correct on term, Caggiula 13% & correct on term, Hinostroza 23% & correct on term, Niemi 8.6% and correct on term, Paajarvi 0.1% and correct on term. If you read through the whole document his margin of error has been 10% thus far in 2018.

Other than Evander Kane in terms of length of the other 11 contracts so far signed in the off season he's been correct 9 of 11 times, twice off by a single year.

The model has been quoted by a number of veteran posters here as well as in The Athletic by numerous hockey journalists including the ever popular Murat Ates.

Matt Cane is an editor for Hockey Graphs. If that name sounds familiar it's because it was founded by our own Garret Hohl.

It's not meant to be absolute, but certainly a great tool, particular when playing around with a secondary website like CapFriendly. Using the two hand in hand will give the average user here tremendous insight into the summer signings for the Jets & the rest of the NHL.

 

[Whileee]

All the results are in the spreadsheet. If you had looked you'd have notice that all signings are listed showing predicted AAV/length vs. signed AAV/length.

Kane's contract was off by only $107,358, Caggiula $199,689 & correct on term, Hinostroza $351,717 & correct on term, $79,213 and correct on term, Paajarvi $1,216 and correct on term. If you read through the whole document his margin of error has been 10% thus far in 2018. Most notable error has been Domi, but in all fairness the spreadsheet was created without the trade to the Canadians in mind. Even then the term was nailed, but the predicted AAV was off only 16%.

The model has been quoted by a number of veteran posters here as well as in The Athletic by numerous hockey journalists including ever popular Murat Ates.

Matt Kane is an editor for Hockey Graphs. If that name sounds familiar it's because it was founded by our own Garret Hohl.

It's not meant to be absolute, but certainly a great tool, particular when playing around with a secondary website like CapFriendly. Using the two hand in hand will give the average user here tremendous insight into the summer signings for the Jets & the rest of the NHL.

Sign me up for Stastny @ 1 year and $4.65M.

 

[Saidin]

Anyone got a link to Cane's spreadsheet? Sorry if someone posted it earlier I can't find it.

 

[Whileee]

Anyone got a link to Cane's spreadsheet? Sorry if someone posted it earlier I can't find it.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Anyone got a link to Cane's spreadsheet? Sorry if someone posted it earlier I can't find it.

In my post 7999 the hyperlink appears with the word "here." (in blue)

Matt Cane has put together a model to predict NHL contracts. The Cane’s model successfully predicted Evander Kane’s $7 million AAV earlier this off season. Has become a quite popular tool.

Trouba is predicted to be 1 year at $4.5 million.

Cane model for predicting contracts and length can be viewed at the following hyperlink here

He's got Trouba odds of contract length at:
-1 year 26%
-2 year 15%
-3 year 17%
-4 year 9%
-5 year 6%
-6 year 10%
-7 year 10%
-8 year 5%

 

[surixon]

There appears to be something fundamentally wrong with his models where Morrissey is making over 1 million less per year over 8 year deal than an inferior player in Nurse.

Also Trouba at under 6 per on an 8 year deal is a pipe dream.

 

[Jetlaggedoil]

T

There appears to be something fundamentally wrong with his models where Morrissey is making over 1 million less per year over 8 year deal than an inferior player in Nurse.

Also Trouba at under 6 per on an 8 year deal is a pipe dream.

Chiarelli factor, sheif also making 1.5 mill I believe than draisitle. Also doesn't nurse have fewer rfa years remaining? He's viewed as a future cornerstone by many Oilers fans as well as their back end is a mess both with current nhlers and prospects. Just a few potential factors.

 

[surixon]

T

Chiarelli factor, sheif also making 1.5 mill I believe than draisitle. Also doesn't nurse have fewer rfa years remaining? He's viewed as a future cornerstone by many Oilers fans as well as their back end is a mess both with current nhlers and prospects. Just a few potential factors.

Nope same age and contract status as JoMo. I guess if his model accounts for the GM then I guess that i possible lol.

 

[surixon]

What the heck is the hold up on the official cap numbers for next season..... They should be out by now.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Matt holds a Bachelor’s degree in Engineering and Management from McMaster University, and a Master of Science in Applied Math from Ryerson University, and is currently employed in Risk Management at a Canadian bank. Same numbers game used in risk management is being applied.



All the results are in the spreadsheet. If you had looked you'd have noticed that all signings are listed showing predicted AAV/length vs. signed AAV/length.

Kane's contract was off by only 1.5%, Domi 16% and correct on term, Caggiula 13% & correct on term, Hinostroza 23% & correct on term, Niemi 8.6% and correct on term, Paajarvi 0.1% and correct on term. If you read through the whole document his margin of error has been 10% thus far in 2018.

Other than Evander Kane in terms of length of the other 11 contracts so far signed in the off season he's been correct 9 of 11 times, twice off by a single year.

The model has been quoted by a number of veteran posters here as well as in The Athletic by numerous hockey journalists including the ever popular Murat Ates.

Matt Cane is an editor for Hockey Graphs. If that name sounds familiar it's because it was founded by our own Garret Hohl.

It's not meant to be absolute, but certainly a great tool, particular when playing around with a secondary website like CapFriendly. Using the two hand in hand will give the average user here tremendous insight into the summer signings for the Jets & the rest of the NHL.

K, thanks.
Still think those estimates of term for Trouba are way off. By what mechanism does he sign for 2 years? Or 3?

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Trouba at under 6 per on an 8 year deal is a pipe dream.

Trouba getting a $6 million AAV contract would place him as the 16th highest paid defensemen in the NHL. I think that's fine. Do you really believe Trouba deserves a $7 million+ deal on par with Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty & Ryan Suter?

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

There appears to be something fundamentally wrong with his models where Morrissey is making over 1 million less per year over 8 year deal than an inferior player in Nurse.

Chiarelli factor, sheif also making 1.5 mill I believe than draisitle. Also doesn't nurse have fewer rfa years remaining? He's viewed as a future cornerstone by many Oilers fans as well as their back end is a mess both with current nhlers and prospects. Just a few potential factors.

Nope same age and contract status as JoMo. I guess if his model accounts for the GM then I guess that i possible lol.

Both were selected in the same draft year, Morrissey 13th, Nurse 7th. Both had sliding contracts until draft+3 when they both began pro careers. Here's where the difference begin.

Morrissey played in the AHL year 1 other than 1 NHL game. 164 career NHL games

Nurse played his entire year 1 in the NHL year for 69 games. 197 career NHL games. Nurse was injured during the 2016-2017 season.

In addition due to their draft positions, each had different performance bonus'. Nurse's was $350,000 more per season than Morrissey's so his AAV has been higher and likely plays a factor in the Cane model.

 

[Whileee]

Both were selected in the same draft year, Morrissey 13th, Nurse 7th. Both had sliding contracts until draft+3 when they both began pro careers. Here's where the difference begin.

Morrissey played in the AHL year 1 other than 1 NHL game. 164 career NHL games

Nurse played his entire year 1 in the NHL year for 69 games. 197 career NHL games. Nurse was injured during the 2016-2017 season.

In addition due to their draft positions, each had different performance bonus'. Nurse's was $350,000 more per season than Morrissey's so his AAV has been higher and likely plays a factor in the Cane model.

Sure, but usually better players are paid more, and Morrissey is clearly the better player.

 

[surixon]

Trouba getting a $6 million AAV contract would place him as the 16th highest paid defensemen in the NHL. I think that's fine. Do you really believe Trouba deserves a $7 million+ deal on par with Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty & Ryan Suter?
View attachment 125715

I have consistently pegged him between 6.25 and 6.5 million per year on my projections. There isn't comp out there that would lead to his agent being able to get 7 or above.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Trouba getting a $6 million AAV contract would place him as the 16th highest paid defensemen in the NHL. I think that's fine. Do you really believe Trouba deserves a $7 million+ deal on par with Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty & Ryan Suter?
View attachment 125715

Suter signed a 13 year contract 6 years ago. Are you really going to use it for comparison? Really?

Karlsson and Doughty will soon be signing somewhere for 10+ mil.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Suter signed a 13 year contract 6 years ago. Are you really going to use it for comparison? Really?

Karlsson and Doughty will soon be signing somewhere for 10+ mil.

Hardly my point.
Is Trouba one of the top 15 defensemen in the NHL.? Will he ever be? Shouldn't his salary be relative to his placement against his peers?

One of the reasons I quoted Suter is there is really no comparable out there that could suggest he gets $6.5 or more. Doing so would be unprecedented and hardly the kind of signing a GM up against the cap would make.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hardly my point.
Is Trouba one of the top 15 defensemen in the NHL.? Will he ever be? Shouldn't his salary be relative to his placement against his peers?

One of the reasons I quoted Suter is there is really no comparable out there that could suggest he gets $6.5 or more. Doing so would be unprecedented and hardly the kind of signing a GM up against the cap would make.

You still need to look at the contracts of those 15 top D in the NHL in the context of when they signed. And it is never fully informative to simply look at the AAV of any contract. The whole contact, all of its terms and all of its context need to be considered.

Where is the market for 7-8 year contracts at today? It is higher than it was a year ago.

 

[Whileee]

Hardly my point.
Is Trouba one of the top 15 defensemen in the NHL.? Will he ever be? Shouldn't his salary be relative to his placement against his peers?

One of the reasons I quoted Suter is there is really no comparable out there that could suggest he gets $6.5 or more. Doing so would be unprecedented and hardly the kind of signing a GM up against the cap would make.

Salaries are constantly leap-frogging each other, based on when they are signed. With the next set of signings, the salary norms will rise considerably. You can't really base contracts on current contracts signed 3-4 years ago. A better way to look at things is % of cap, and in relation to the UFA years purchased. Dougie Hamilton's salary, pro-rated to an $82M was $6.6M, and he'll be a UFA at age 28. If the Jets want to sign Trouba until he's 30+ years of age, they'll need to go higher on AAV, for sure.

Evander Kane will be the 4th highest paid LW in the NHL next season, and Marleau is #6, because they were signed very recently.

 

[Jimmyjets]

Suter signed a 13 year contract 6 years ago. Are you really going to use it for comparison? Really?

Karlsson and Doughty will soon be signing somewhere for 10+ mil.

Cap friendly does have the cap hit percentage (C.H.%) at the time each contract was signed which is really what you need to look at. For example Suter was 12.56%, Doughty was 10.89% and Karlsson was 10.11% of the cap when they signed their deals. On an $80 million dollar cap you're looking at $10 per year in equivalent value today. Agents won't let you say "Karlsson's only making $6.5. How many Norris votes did Trouba get? There's no way I'm paying anywhere near Karlsson money for him."

 

[Gm0ney]

Going by comparables percentage-when-signed, I think Trouba would be in that 7% to 8% of cap range. So that's between $5.6M and $6.4M AAV on a 4+ year deal.

$6M x 4 years (or more) would be fine. It would be like if Trouba signed a $5M x 6 year deal back when he was holding out, and I think everyone would've been pretty happy with that.

 

[Whileee]

Going by comparables percentage-when-signed, I think Trouba would be in that 7% to 8% of cap range. So that's between $5.6M and $6.4M AAV on a 4+ year deal.

$6M x 4 years (or more) would be fine. It would be like if Trouba signed a $5M x 6 year deal back when he was holding out, and I think everyone would've been pretty happy with that.

I think Trouba will end up signing for 4-5 years, in the $6-6.5M range, which would be good for the Jets. I then expect that he'll get traded with a year or so left on his contract for young players, prospects and/or picks to replenish the pipeline.