Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2017-18

[TheJadePipe]

Are you saying people should put more weight on statements made by Trouba and his agent over the last two years than on speculative guesses on HFBoards about Trouba's GF's medical school and his dad's ability to cross the border? I dunno...

I am saying ... yes

 

[Whileee]

I still think it'll be 4-5 years and around 6.25-6.5 million

 

[Moon Man]

I’m hoping we can lock up both Troubs and Morrissey for 8 years.

Give them both 6. Or one of them 6.5 and the other 5.5. Or 6.25 and 5.75.

 

[KingBogo]

I still think it'll be 4-5 years and around 6.25-6.5 million

This is exactly the range I see Trouba signing. 5 X $6.25 sound just about right. Puts Trouba as a UFA at age 29 y/o.

 

[Bob E]

This is exactly the range I see Trouba signing. 5 X $6.25 sound just about right. Puts Trouba as a UFA at age 29 y/o.

My prediction is a bit higher, King. Around, 5 years at $6.6 mill per.

 

[larmex99]

Interesting....sorry, needs translation....

ken alpay (@ken19765) | Twitter

Winnipeg Jets leading interest in Slava voynov ..also Florida Montreal Rangers and islanders have been speculatedhttps://m.championat.com/article/sport/hockey/3462353/ …

 

[Swiftt]

Interesting....sorry, needs translation....

ken alpay (@ken19765) | Twitter

Winnipeg Jets leading interest in Slava voynov ..also Florida Montreal Rangers and islanders have been speculatedhttps://m.championat.com/article/sport/hockey/3462353/ …

This is a bit misleading, the translation states that Winnipeg is a desired location by Voynov, not that we have desire for him. Way different.

 

[tbcwpg]

Interesting....sorry, needs translation....

ken alpay (@ken19765) | Twitter

Winnipeg Jets leading interest in Slava voynov ..also Florida Montreal Rangers and islanders have been speculatedhttps://m.championat.com/article/sport/hockey/3462353/ …

I saw someone clarify this as the teams tes interested in, not necessarily that the Jets want him. Not sure he'd be a fit here positionally let alone the off ice stuff so I don't see it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I still think it'll be 4-5 years and around 6.25-6.5 million

We're all just guessing here. I think 4-5 years is quite likely. I hope that if it is that short the AAV would be a little lower than that, but who knows?

 

[Whileee]

We're all just guessing here. I think 4-5 years is quite likely. I hope that if it is that short the AAV would be a little lower than that, but who knows?

It would be nice to be on the lower side on the AAV, especially since I think Trouba might eventually be destined for a trade a year or more before he reaches UFA, perhaps like the McDonagh deal, or Brassard (and perhaps Karlsson).

The Jets' main focus should be on retaining Trouba on the roster as a top pairing RD for the next 3-4 seasons, and then be able to still trade him for high value if he isn't likely to be a long-term Jet.

 

[Maukkis]

Nick Leddy is a great comparable for Trouba.

Also, whoever suggested a one-year deal for Trouba, consider the risk of him busting his knee by game 20 and losing out on a heck of a lot of money.

 

[larmex99]

Nick Leddy is a great comparable for Trouba.

Also, whoever suggested a one-year deal for Trouba, consider the risk of him busting his knee by game 20 and losing out on a heck of a lot of money.

Considering his tendency to get injured you would have to imagine that he would not want to continue to roll the dice on $40M+. Even Evander figured that one out early.

 

[Whileee]

Nick Leddy is a great comparable for Trouba.

Also, whoever suggested a one-year deal for Trouba, consider the risk of him busting his knee by game 20 and losing out on a heck of a lot of money.

Don't disagree much.

Salary cap was $71.4 M when Leddy signed his current deal, so his deal was worth 7.7% of the team's cap. If the cap is at $80 million this season, that would translate into a $6.16M cap hit for Trouba.

I think Trouba will want more, especially for a 7 year deal though. I think the Jets would pay more, too, but perhaps not much more.

 

[Maukkis]

Don't disagree much.

Salary cap was $71.4 M when Leddy signed his current deal, so his deal was worth 7.7% of the team's cap. If the cap is at $80 million this season, that would translate into a $6.16M cap hit for Trouba.

I think Trouba will want more, especially for a 7 year deal though. I think the Jets would pay more, too, but perhaps not much more.

Other factors: Overhardt, Leddy > Trouba offensively, Canadian dollar vs US (not an expert in this field, though).

It's quite even, in the end.

 

[Whileee]

Other factors: Overhardt, Leddy > Trouba offensively, Canadian dollar vs US (not an expert in this field, though).

It's quite even, in the end.

Are you sure about the offense?

In their contract year (2014/15 for Leddy, 2017/18 for Trouba)....

5v5 points/60:

Trouba 1.22
Leddy 1.14

Trouba also scored at a considerably higher rate 5v5 in 2016/17 than Leddy did in the year prior to his contract year.

Trouba's offense is continuously underrated because of his lack of PP opportunity.

Everyone gets paid in US currency. Taxes and cost of living in NYC are probably not more favourable than Winnipeg.

 

[Maukkis]

Are you sure about the offense?

In their contract year (2014/15 for Leddy, 2017/18 for Trouba)....

5v5 points/60:

Trouba 1.22
Leddy 1.14

Trouba also scored at a considerably higher rate 5v5 in 2016/17 than Leddy did in the year prior to his contract year.

Trouba's offense is continuously underrated because of his lack of PP opportunity.

Everyone gets paid in US currency. Taxes and cost of living in NYC are probably not more favourable than Winnipeg.

Also, 37P in 78G vs. 24P in 55G.

Nearly equal if prorated, but guess which one of those totals gets you more money. Are you richer off being a 'nearly 40-point defenseman' or a '25-30 point guy'?

The thing with Trouba is that he is crazily good at ES, but with no PP time, the point totals will never be up there with the best. For example, Trouba is comfortably above Morgan Rielly in 5v5 point production, even though Rielly had 52 points last year.

 

[ps241]

I still think it'll be 4-5 years and around 6.25-6.5 million

This wouldn’t be bad. It keeps Jacob locked up for 4 more good runs at the cup. If it doesn’t happen once in the next 4 years it’s probably not going to happen in this era. That deal does not mean you can’t sign Troubs again at the end of that term.

4 years would keep him under team control for as long as guys like Morgan Rielly, Seth Jones, and Hampus Lindholm are for their respective teams. Every deal doesn’t have to be 8 years.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Are you sure about the offense?

In their contract year (2014/15 for Leddy, 2017/18 for Trouba)....

5v5 points/60:

Trouba 1.22
Leddy 1.14

Trouba also scored at a considerably higher rate 5v5 in 2016/17 than Leddy did in the year prior to his contract year.

Trouba's offense is continuously underrated because of his lack of PP opportunity.

Everyone gets paid in US currency. Taxes and cost of living in NYC are probably not more favourable than Winnipeg.

The Leddy comparo is not bad. He has 4 years left on his 7 year deal with an AAV of 5.5. If we just look at his actual salaries for those 4 years he gets 25 mil. That would be an AAV of 6.25 if it was the whole contract. Not sure what that really means, grabbing a part contract but it might suggest a price range.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I still think it'll be 4-5 years and around 6.25-6.5 million

I think the AAV varies with term. The longer he commits for, the higher the AAV will be.

Term	AAV
4	5.5-5.75
5	5.75-6.25
6	6-6.5
7	6.25-6.75
8	7-7.25

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Something like that. At the low end it is probably closer to the 5.5 and at the high end, closer to the 7.25. I think that covers the possibilities. My bet would be on 5x6.

 

[The Ugly Truth]

1) Trouba's perceived value has been damaged by his utilization with the Jets (carrying Stuart's carcass, playing his off-side, no power play time). Trouba is now going to get paid - a lot - whether or not you like it.

2) *By law* HFBoards posters undervalue players on their own team that they want to keep by $1,000,000 – $2,000,000/year, overvalue players on their own team that they want to get rid of, undervalue players on other teams that they want to get for the Jets by $1,000,000 – $2,000,000/year and overvalue draft choices.

3) HFBoards videogame GMs posting here also seem to think that players and their agents are stupid and that players don't realize that they're being treated like cattle during their brief careers. Expecting blind loyalty and hometown discounts from players that you're all too willing to immediately dump like cattle doesn't work in the real world.

4) It would nice for a change if people could post realistic signing and trade scenarios that are not predicated upon complete stupidity of the other side.

5) Trouba probably doesn't want to sign with Winnipeg because there are much nicer places to live in the NHL and up until recently he has been screwed by the team in terms of usage. If Winnipeg want to lock him up for a seven-year deal it's probably going to cost $7 million/year or more. Sign + trade to a team far away from Winnipeg might be the best option for both sides.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

1) Trouba's perceived value has been damaged by his utilization with the Jets (carrying Stuart's carcass, playing his off-side, no power play time). Trouba is now going to get paid - a lot - whether or not you like it.

2) *By law* HFBoards posters undervalue players on their own team that they want to keep by $1,000,000 – $2,000,000/year, overvalue players on their own team that they want to get rid of, undervalue players on other teams that they want to get for the Jets by $1,000,000 – $2,000,000/year and overvalue draft choices.

3) HFBoards videogame GMs posting here also seem to think that players and their agents are stupid and that players don't realize that they're being treated like cattle during their brief careers. Expecting blind loyalty and hometown discounts from players that you're all too willing to immediately dump like cattle doesn't work in the real world.

4) It would nice for a change if people could post realistic signing and trade scenarios that are not predicated upon complete stupidity of the other side.

5) Trouba probably doesn't want to sign with Winnipeg because there are much nicer places to live in the NHL and up until recently he has been screwed by the team in terms of usage. If Winnipeg want to lock him up for a seven-year deal it's probably going to cost $7 million/year or more. Sign + trade to a team far away from Winnipeg might be the best option for both sides.

There are relatively few posters here on the Winnipeg site that post contract suggestions that are off by the huge amounts you suggest. We're all aware of the current cap of $75 million and with access to sites like CapFriendly where the math is done for you, it becomes clear to even the casual fan that every dollar saved is of paramount importance, particularly with 10 RFA's to sign.

While it is true that many fans do indeed expect blind loyalty, the players themselves certainly feel some degree of loyalty to their organization with far more feeling a larger degree of loyalty to their teammates. The salary cap era has made players realize that taking a larger share of the pie may reap financial dividends, but that this money is ultimately coming from a teammates pocket. More importantly to play on a winner requires quality teammates. Quality teammates cost money.

I would suggest a good portion of the signings suggested will be fairly accurate. As for trades, good luck. Personally I avoid ever suggesting a trade or even reading of them. There are far too many variables to ever guess right. Of the thousands of trades suggested on the Winnipeg boards alone I don't believe one has ever been right. On the contrary many contracts have been guessed correctly in terms of salary & term.

What's interesting is after suggesting posters are consistently off by $1-$2 million dollars you post a 7 year suggestion for $7 million, over a full million beyond what insiders suggest & contract term exceeding any suggestion I've read anywhere.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Nick Leddy is a great comparable for Trouba.

Also, whoever suggested a one-year deal for Trouba, consider the risk of him busting his knee by game 20 and losing out on a heck of a lot of money.

Yet he signed a bridge for 2 years last time around...

 

[Maukkis]

Yet he signed a bridge for 2 years last time around...

Different leverage, different term, different track record.

A bridge deal is a player betting on himself, whereas signing a one-year deal after proving oneself is playing with fire.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Different leverage, different term, different track record.

A bridge deal is a player betting on himself, whereas signing a one-year deal after proving oneself is playing with fire.

Matt Cane has put together a model to predict NHL contracts. The Cane’s model successfully predicted Evander Kane’s $7 million AAV earlier this off season. Has become a quite popular tool.

Trouba is predicted to be 1 year at $4.5 million.

Cane model for predicting contracts and length can be viewed at the following hyperlink here

He's got Trouba odds of contract length at:
-1 year 26%
-2 year 15%
-3 year 17%
-4 year 9%
-5 year 6%
-6 year 10%
-7 year 10%
-8 year 5%

 

[10Ducky10]

he will get more than 6m if he signs for 7 or 8 years...I would guess much closer to 7.25m.

I think he signs a 5 year contract somewhere around 6m.