Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2017-18

Status
Not open for further replies.

Gabe Kupari

Registered User
Jul 11, 2013
15,269
14,859
Winter is Coming
I'm not sure what it will take at this point for people to actually think Trouba wants to stay here. He's said it from the beginning, it's always been about how's he was being used. He's now on his proper side, on a first pairing with a good partner on a cup contender... Why would you want out on that?

Oh right, because Winnipeg.

Okie dokie then

Got nothing to do with Cuz Winnipeg..

Whats a reasonable deal for him..

5.75 x 5? 6 x 6? Cuz hes not 1 mill less than OEL good .
 
  • Like
Reactions: ocdaddy and DRW204

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,187
28,768
Stralman and McDonagh both have a year left on their contracts...so same boat - you just want to be sure you can extend them if you want to include them in the deal. I think trading the LHD works better for TB, that's why I went with McDonagh. TB has Hedman and Sergachev in the top four on the left (and would still have Coburn on the bottom pair) compared to only Stralman on the right. Trouba joins Hedman, SErgachev and Stralman in the top 4.

What's the deal with Johnson - is he available? Do you think he'd work between Ehlers and Laine? Obviously need to pare Perreault and Meyers to take that much salary back. Even then, might have to trade Lowry as well and make Copp your 4th line C.

From TBL POV - Trouba in, Stralman out = same number of RHD but an upgrade and gain of 8 years of age. Don't know if TBL plan on extending Stralman or not.

From our POV, Stralman fills the hole on the right side while Foote develops. Not sure whether he would be extended or not. With Trouba out of the picture we can handle both Stralman and Johnson this year. Next year is a little trickier and I'm not sure if we could keep Stralman or not. It would depend on what he needs for AAV and term, among other things.

I have seen speculation about Johnson being available but nothing concrete. But they are loaded at C and they need to free up cap space - even more so if they need to find room for Trouba. They have no problem replacing him in the lineup. I don't think it works for them if we don't take that salary back.
 

GaryPoppins

A broken clock is right twice in a day
Sep 10, 2016
2,419
3,135
Does anyone get the feeling Trouba is just being a good little boy in what hes said recently but still wants out?
The thought had crossed my mind. Last time, the approach was brash and his attempt to pressure the Jets into moving him was met with angst and displeasure from the fan base. Not to mention, it required Chevy to be exceedingly patient and show his resolve which was very impressive... Where as this time, if they publicly state that "Hey, I want to be here long term" but then ends up leaving, they can blame the exit on monetary reasons when really, it was his intent to leave all along.

You kind of have to try and take the comments he and his agents have made at face value, but you just can't help but feel that the scenario could end up with Trouba being traded.

If that's the case, it would absolutely suck, but if the guy doesn't wanna be here long term and he's going to sulk and not be in it 100%, it's better to maximize that asset and bring in pieces that are 100%.
 

TheJadePipe

Registered User
Mar 8, 2016
1,094
858
The thought had crossed my mind. Last time, the approach was brash and his attempt to pressure the Jets into moving him was met with angst and displeasure from the fan base. Not to mention, it required Chevy to be exceedingly patient and show his resolve which was very impressive... Where as this time, if they publicly state that "Hey, I want to be here long term" but then ends up leaving, they can blame the exit on monetary reasons when really, it was his intent to leave all along.

You kind of have to try and take the comments he and his agents have made at face value, but you just can't help but feel that the scenario could end up with Trouba being traded.

If that's the case, it would absolutely suck, but if the guy doesn't wanna be here long term and he's going to sulk and not be in it 100%, it's better to maximize that asset and bring in pieces that are 100%.
I see no reason to take his word less than face value...
He was not pleased with his utilization, that has since been resolved, he has now said he wants to stay and take care of unfinished business....
I believe it’s that simple and he was speaking truthfully.
Everything else is assumptions with zero merit
 

Gm0ney

Unicorns salient
Oct 12, 2011
14,428
12,680
Winnipeg
I see no reason to take his word less than face value...
He was not pleased with his utilization, that has since been resolved, he has now said he wants to stay and take care of unfinished business....
I believe it’s that simple and he was speaking truthfully.
Everything else is assumptions with zero merit
Are you saying people should put more weight on statements made by Trouba and his agent over the last two years than on speculative guesses on HFBoards about Trouba's GF's medical school and his dad's ability to cross the border? I dunno... :sarcasm:
 

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,187
28,768
Got nothing to do with Cuz Winnipeg..

Whats a reasonable deal for him..

5.75 x 5? 6 x 6? Cuz hes not 1 mill less than OEL good .

If he would sign for 8 years like OEL is reported to be doing what would he be worth? Longer term is worth higher AAV. How much compared to OEL? If it is not 1 mill less what is the difference?
 

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,187
28,768
Of course he will sign here if we pay him the money he wants. That is part of the problem.

We don't even know yet that there is a problem. History suggests that there might be one but lets wait and see.

If his asking price is excessive then I would be happy with maximizing the return. But I don't think we really have any idea what his ask actually is.
 
Jun 15, 2013
5,559
5,260
Winnipeg
If he would sign for 8 years like OEL is reported to be doing what would he be worth? Longer term is worth higher AAV. How much compared to OEL? If it is not 1 mill less what is the difference?

OEL is 2 years older, drafted 3 years earlier, already under contract for $2 million more a season, signed no bridge deals, has a current contract that expires with him as a UFA, scores at a significantly higher rate and shoots left.

He's not a great comparable other than to provide evidence that Trouba won't get anywhere near $8.25 AAV if signed for eight years.
 

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,187
28,768
OEL is 2 years older, drafted 3 years earlier, already under contract for $2 million more a season, signed no bridge deals, has a current contract that expires with him as a UFA, scores at a significantly higher rate and shoots left.

He's not a great comparable other than to provide evidence that Trouba won't get anywhere near $8.25 AAV if signed for eight years.

I wasn't the one who brought up OEL. You didn't answer my question. :laugh: What does not anywhere near mean in numbers?
 

Gabe Kupari

Registered User
Jul 11, 2013
15,269
14,859
Winter is Coming
I think he's gonna be moved out. Get that feeling. Im not up for debates about whys and how much.. Thats not my job.. Its none of ours jobs actually... My gut tells me hes traded at the draft for a young center and 1st.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bobbythebrain
Jun 15, 2013
5,559
5,260
Winnipeg
I wasn't the one who brought up OEL. You didn't answer my question. :laugh: What does not anywhere near mean in numbers?

I'd suggest more in line with Morgan Reilly. Trouba will likely command more due to less RFA years being in the mix & the salary cap increase.

Same draft year, same age, same length of time in the NHL, similar offensive numbers.

Trouba may be the better overall player, but Reilly wears an A & has been injured far less.

Difference would be Reilly didn't sign a bridge as did Trouba, so there's less RFA years to be considered, making Trouba's contract slightly more if a similar 6 year deal was made. I'd expect that to be in the ballpark of $6 million AAV. If less length is what both parties agree to then even less money on average per year.

It's been suggested that a 1 year bridge deal be the best for the Jets and that long term dollars are used for Morrissey, because there's more value averaging 4 RFA years over a 6 year deal than there is averaging Trouba's final 2 RFA years.

Trouba then gets his long term deal next season. Any way we'll know soon. If Chevy is to take a stab at any free agents, he needs to know soon what cap space is available to him.
 

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,187
28,768
I'd suggest more in line with Morgan Reilly. Trouba will likely command more due to less RFA years being in the mix & the salary cap increase.

Same draft year, same age, same length of time in the NHL, similar offensive numbers.

Trouba may be the better overall player, but Reilly wears an A & has been injured far less.

Difference would be Reilly didn't sign a bridge as did Trouba, so there's less RFA years to be considered, making Trouba's contract slightly more if a similar 6 year deal was made. I'd expect that to be in the ballpark of $6 million AAV. If less length is what both parties agree to then even less money on average per year.

It's been suggested that a 1 year bridge deal be the best for the Jets and that long term dollars are used for Morrissey, because there's more value averaging 4 RFA years over a 6 year deal than there is averaging Trouba's final 2 RFA years.

Trouba then gets his long term deal next season. Any way we'll know soon. If Chevy is to take a stab at any free agents, he needs to know soon what cap space is available to him.

Who suggested the bolded? That's a new one on me. Horrible idea, IMO. That takes him to within 1 arb contract of UFA. Just reckless. If unable to sign him long term (5+ years) this off-season I would start shopping him.

Chevy has no business considering any significant FA's unless he trades some cap. There is no cap space available beyond next season and precious little even next season if there are no trades.

Edit: Agree Rielly could be a starting point. 2 years have passed since Rielly signed so that would = some inflation. IMO, Trouba is better all around than Rielly. So 6x6 sounds reasonable. Maybe a little more but close.
 
Last edited:

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,187
28,768
I think he's gonna be moved out. Get that feeling. Im not up for debates about whys and how much.. Thats not my job.. Its none of ours jobs actually... My gut tells me hes traded at the draft for a young center and 1st.

If it is the right C and the right 1st that might not be too bad - but it probably wouldn't be. So I hope your gut is wrong. :laugh:
 
Jun 15, 2013
5,559
5,260
Winnipeg
Who suggested the bolded? That's a new one on me. Horrible idea, IMO. That takes him to within 1 arb contract of UFA. Just reckless. If unable to sign him long term (5+ years) this off-season I would start shopping him.

Chevy has no business considering any significant FA's unless he trades some cap. There is no cap space available beyond next season and precious little even next season if there are no trades.

Regarding the bolded...many people. The Cane model which predicts 1 year was quoted in a few places now. Murat quoted it in his last piece in the Athletic. WPGChief cited it in his article yesterday in his piece on JetsNation.

The reasoning is Trouba is likely getting roughly $6 million AAV if signed today or a year from today.

For arguments sake:

1) Trouba signs 6 years in 2018. Year 1-2 $4.5 million, years 3-6 $7 million. That's $37 million or 6.17AAV
2) Trouba signs 6 years in 2019. Year 1 $4.5 million, years 2-6 $7 million. That's $39.5 million or 6.58AAV

If the Jets are looking to shave money off the salary cap, $400,000 isn't optimal on a big money deal.

vs. Trouba on a 1 year $4.8 million deal & waiting until 2019 for option 2

Getting Morrissey under contract earlier has much more financial benefit to the team.

Is there risk involved? Sure! But Chevy has a much better understanding of Trouba & Overhardt's position than we do. Granted this is speculation, but if the intention is to sign & to play on a contender, then option 2 works in everyones interest.
 
Last edited:

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,187
28,768
Regarding the bolded...many people. The Cane model which predicts 1 year was quoted in a few places now. Murat quoted it in his last piece in the Athletic. WPGChief cited it in his article yesterday in his piece on JetsNation.

The reasoning is Trouba is likely getting roughly $6 million AAV if signed today or a year from today.

For arguments sake:

Trouba signs 6 years in 2018. Year 1-2 $4.5 million, years 3-6 $7 million. That's $37 million or 6.17AAV
Trouba signs 6 years in 2019. Year 1 $4.5 million, years 2-6 $7 million. That's $39.5 million or 6.58AAV

vs. Trouba on a 1 year $4.8 million deal.

Getting Morrissey under contract earlier has much more financial benefit to the team.

Baffles me completely. I don't see the choice you are getting at between Trouba and Morrissey.

Signing Trouba for 1 year is just begging to lose him to FA. Preventing that a year from now would require a big overpayment. If it is 6.17 now I don't think it would be 6.58 a year from now with Overhardt in that position of power. Think 7.5-8 mil, or more.
 
Jun 15, 2013
5,559
5,260
Winnipeg
Baffles me completely. I don't see the choice you are getting at between Trouba and Morrissey.

Signing Trouba for 1 year is just begging to lose him to FA. Preventing that a year from now would require a big overpayment. If it is 6.17 now I don't think it would be 6.58 a year from now with Overhardt in that position of power. Think 7.5-8 mil, or more.

Even if Trouba did get paid $8 million, that's not going to be his AAV. It would be his salary for 1 year of the 6 seasons in question. That extra $0.97-$1.47 million would be divided by 6 & amount to an increase in AAV of $150,000-$245,000.

Granted contracts are something I'm only beginning to comprehend, but I'm far from mathematically challenged and have been doing my best to understand all the complexities that go into an NHL contract. From a pure numbers standpoint, nothing is more valuable for AAV than getting as many RFA years parcelled into a contract as possible. Morrissey has 4. Trouba has 2. The math says signing Morrissey long term creates more cap space.

Of course with it complicates other signings & there's risk involved as it's guesswork from our standpoint where Trouba's line in the sand is. Chevy knows for certain & if Trouba is as gung-ho to sign as has been suggested, the risk is minimal.
 
Last edited:

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,187
28,768
Even if Trouba did get paid $8 million, that's not going to be his AAV. It would be his salary for 1 year of the 6 seasons in question. That extra $0.97-$1.47 million would be divided by 6 & amount to an increase in AAV of $150,000-$245,000.

Granted contracts are something I'm only beginning to comprehend, but I'm far from mathematically challenged and have been doing my best to understand all the complexities that go into an NHL contract. From a pure numbers standpoint, nothing is more valuable for AAV than getting as many RFA years parcelled into a contract as possible. Morrissey has 4. Trouba has 2. The math says signing Morrissey long term creates more cap space.

Of course with it complicates other signings & there's risk involved as it's guesswork from our standpoint where Trouba's line in the sand is. Chevy knows for certain & if Trouba is as gung-ho to sign as has been suggested, the risk is minimal.

That's not what I am saying. I'm saying that if Overhardt has Trouba to within 1 year of UFA then the AAV won't be 6.58. It will be much more - like 7.5-8 for instance.

Signing him to a 1 year deal now is giving KO a large boost in bargaining power and it would cost as a result. Just a very bad idea IMO.

There are a lot of factors that go into coming up with the final numbers in any contract and it has to be acceptable to both parties. But any negotiation comes down to bargaining power in the end.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Moon Man

Jimmyjets

Registered User
Oct 22, 2014
1,307
1,616
Baffles me completely. I don't see the choice you are getting at between Trouba and Morrissey.

Signing Trouba for 1 year is just begging to lose him to FA. Preventing that a year from now would require a big overpayment. If it is 6.17 now I don't think it would be 6.58 a year from now with Overhardt in that position of power. Think 7.5-8 mil, or more.

I think the question is will Trouba ever sign long term here? If he will then this offseason is the time to lock him up. If he won't, to me it depends on what the offers are right now vs what you would get next offseason with only 1 year of control remaining. You'd be talking a late 1st + roster player at the trade deadline as a pure rental so presumably you could get that next offseason when the acquiring team has a full year of Trouba. Maybe even with a conditional pick based on if he signs an extension or not. Are we able to get something significantly better than that now?

Going for the cup one more year with Trouba is acceptable to me but I'd know that he's just a Merc and will be gone next offseason.

Trading him would be a big problem as we'd critically need a top pair potential RHD prospect or 2 in the pipeline to replace Buff and potentially Myers if he can't be extended. rolling Buff, Myers, Poolman on the Right side is still respectable to me. Not as good as if Trouba stays, but if we can pull Trouba + Petan for both Detroit's 1sts (6th and 30th), Ottawa's 2nd and Hronek. I could get behind it. At 6 you would guarantee you'd get one of Dahlin, Svech, Zadina, Dobson, Bouchard, Boqvist or Kotkaneimi (If the Jets see him as a long term option down the middle behind Scheif). Then at 30 and 33 grab another RHD and/or a Center prospect.

Suddenly you're Buff, Myers, Poolman, Dobson, Hronek, (Woo? Lundkvist? someone else) and the D prospect pool on both sides looks strong going forward. We just need to hit on someone to get the top pair RHD we need in 3 years time to replace Buff.
 

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,187
28,768
I think the question is will Trouba ever sign long term here? If he will then this offseason is the time to lock him up. If he won't, to me it depends on what the offers are right now vs what you would get next offseason with only 1 year of control remaining. You'd be talking a late 1st + roster player at the trade deadline as a pure rental so presumably you could get that next offseason when the acquiring team has a full year of Trouba. Maybe even with a conditional pick based on if he signs an extension or not. Are we able to get something significantly better than that now?

Going for the cup one more year with Trouba is acceptable to me but I'd know that he's just a Merc and will be gone next offseason.

Trading him would be a big problem as we'd critically need a top pair potential RHD prospect or 2 in the pipeline to replace Buff and potentially Myers if he can't be extended. rolling Buff, Myers, Poolman on the Right side is still respectable to me. Not as good as if Trouba stays, but if we can pull Trouba + Petan for both Detroit's 1sts (6th and 30th), Ottawa's 2nd and Hronek. I could get behind it. At 6 you would guarantee you'd get one of Dahlin, Svech, Zadina, Dobson, Bouchard, Boqvist or Kotkaneimi (If the Jets see him as a long term option down the middle behind Scheif). Then at 30 and 33 grab another RHD and/or a Center prospect.

Suddenly you're Buff, Myers, Poolman, Dobson, Hronek, (Woo? Lundkvist? someone else) and the D prospect pool on both sides looks strong going forward. We just need to hit on someone to get the top pair RHD we need in 3 years time to replace Buff.

No way he would be moved at the TD unless Jets are right out of it.

TD prices are massively inflated for rentals. I don't think they are a good barometer of prices at any other time.

Keeping him for 1 more run at the cup has some appeal, no doubt. If it was up to me though, I wouldn't risk that. Just way too many ways for that to go wrong. I think that cutting the team control from 2 years to 1 would substantially reduce his trade value but the conditional piece might make up for that. At least in part. My thinking is that with 2 years left and the window for signing being open the acquiring team would be paying for his signed value. His new contract would be negotiated before the trade is final. So we get full value.

Of course, having started shopping him doesn't commit you to accepting any offer. If you don't like the offers you get then you keep him for another year. Or until you get an offer that you do like.

The trade potentials are intriguing but we probably overestimate a bit. I was just thinking of getting Chytil + 9 from NYR. Chytil looks very good after D+1 and 9 could be Dobson or some other very good RHD prospect. Reality is that NYR probably won't part with Chytil and if they did then they would insist on giving us one of their later 1sts. I'm not sure that 9 + 26 would do it - even though that could be Kotkaniemi at 9 and a good D at 26. Or take Dobson at 9 and a C at 26. There could be some pretty good ones still available.

But our fantasies aside, Trouba would bring a large return.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Latest posts

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->