Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2017-18

Status
Not open for further replies.

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,459
29,303
In that case shouldn't we have bridged Ehlers?

Maybe - but that was then, this is now. Ehlers got in before the crunch arrived. Maybe you could make the same case for JoMo and call him the last but I think it is just that the handwriting on the wall is that much more clear now.
 

surixon

Registered User
Jul 12, 2003
49,183
70,549
Winnipeg
Agree that Chia is overpaid. I haven't given him a big raise. Maybe I shouldn't have gone even that far. I think the mistake was going to 1.4 in the first place.

But otherwise you are pretty limited in how much you can save. Squeezing a guy from 1 mil down to 900k isn't much of a saving. Doing that to 5 guys is still only a half mil. At least some of the time that you are squeezing the bottom and middle you are taking a quality hit to do it.

In my no bridge scenario I had 12 players at 5.3 or above. They averaged 6.335 = 76 mil. That left 11 mil for the other 11 players. I don't think you can have that sharp a divide between the top and bottom. Your depth is going to be terrible.

I still wouldn't do the 3 year bridge for Connor. Two gets the job done. I think Chiarot is easily enough replaced in a year from now.

We can sign JoMo long term without much pain. But then we bridge everybody else. So this whole thing becomes about JoMo. 2 bridge or not 2 bridge - him. I don't see that as being such a big issue. If Connor has a strong sophomore year it could turn out to be harder to bridge him than Morrissey. I am not afraid of bridging JoMo. I don''t think it will cost massively down the road. I don't think it will make him an unhappy camper. Two years at 3 mil+, followed by the rest of his career at 6.5+. It will retain some flexibility, room for bonuses and injuries. It will help establish the pattern of bridging just about everybody so that the next guy doesn't get his panties in a knot.

My main issue is more to do with creating positional stability. In most people's scenarios we are shelling out a significant amount of cash for the least important position on the hockey team in wingers. Laine, Ehlers, Wheeler are likely to cost $22 million or about 25% of the cap alone. Throw in a bridge to Conner and your over 30% on your top 6 wingers alone. That is balanced somewhat by the steal contract to chef.

Looking at the defense (A much more important position imo). As you mentioned bridging JoMo vs not bridging him makes little difference next season so lets look at 2019-20. We would be entering that season with only one dmen signed long term in Trouba (Provided we can take him at his word and he signs long term this sumner). An aging Buff would only have 2 years left. That would leave Morrissey, Niku, Kulikov and likely at least one of Morrow/Poolman one year away from needing a new contract. So you are looking at a summer in 2020 where Chevy will need to sign or replace 5 dmen. Of them one will likely be his best all around dmen in JoMo. Niku if he plays as we hope he can will be established in our top 4. Morrow, Kulikov and possibly Poolman will all potentially be UFA and need to be reupped or replaced. That to me is a very messy and untenable situation to be in.

It is compounded by the fact that the Jets will have likely allocated far too much in the way of resources on the wings and not have as much cap to play with.

I sign Morrissey long term because:
1) It creates long term positional stability at position where none really exists atm in defense and it locks in our number 1 d pair. Both I see as important.
2) He also represents the only chance we have left for a potential long term value deal on the back end. Buff is at market value and Trouba and his agent won't take less then it on his next deal.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Mathil8 and Huffer

Adam da bomb

Registered User
May 1, 2016
12,764
9,693
Fair enough. But where are you planning to do that?
All the young players should take steps forward as they approach their prime. If Laine doesn't that's a scary thought. The d in the wings like Samberg Green, Niku give you a stronger 6 then kuli and an aging Buff. You have to remember the older players will become incrementally worse as they get further from their prime. A healthy back-up for Helly who can take some of the games will make the team incrementally better. We are not giving away the players we trade so one of those prospects or picks might help. Little having a bounce back season will make the team incrementally better. Roslo in the starting line-up makes the team incrementally better.
K-ves may make the team incrementally better in a few years.
 

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,459
29,303
My main issue is more to do with creating positional stability. In most people's scenarios we are shelling out a significant amount of cash for the least important position on the hockey team in wingers. Laine, Ehlers, Wheeler are likely to cost $22 million or about 25% of the cap alone. Throw in a bridge to Conner and your over 30% on your top 6 wingers alone. That is balanced somewhat by the steal contract to chef.

Looking at the defense (A much more important position imo). As you mentioned bridging JoMo vs not bridging him makes little difference next season so lets look at 2019-20. We would be entering that season with only one dmen signed long term in Trouba (Provided we can take him at his word and he signs long term this sumner). An aging Buff would only have 2 years left. That would leave Morrissey, Niku, Kulikov and likely at least one of Morrow/Poolman one year away from needing a new contract. So you are looking at a summer in 2020 where Chevy will need to sign or replace 5 dmen. Of them one will likely be his best all around dmen in JoMo. Niku if he plays as we hope he can will be established in our top 4. Morrow, Kulikov and possibly Poolman will all potentially be UFA and need to be reupped or replaced. That to me is a very messy and untenable situation to be in.

It is compounded by the fact that the Jets will have likely allocated far too much in the way of resources on the wings and not have as much cap to play with.

I sign Morrissey long term because:
1) It creates long term positional stability at position where none really exists atm in defense and it locks in our number 1 d pair. Both I see as important.
2) He also represents the only chance we have left for a potential long term value deal on the back end. Buff is at market value and Trouba and his agent won't take less then it on his next deal.

I'm sorry we have so many good wingers. :laugh:

I see the situation you are concerned with but I still don't think that bridging Morrissey is the key that you are making it out to be. A young player, coming off a 2 year bridge and still 2 years from UFA is not a big deal - unless you intend to try and squeeze him to a below market contract. He is still under team control and you are now going to sign him long term. The team control gives us the positional security you are talking about, IMO. In this case, I believe we are ready, willing and able to pay at that point.

I can live with signing him long term if I must but I don't see the need. I would rather retain the flexibility. Of course, if he wants to sign for a low number, long term that's different. But I doubt that happens. Agents today are just a little too sharp for that.

Of course we could always trade one of those expensive wingers for futures. Then we can lock up everybody else long term and have no cap problems for quite a few more years. That's what I am trying to avoid though.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Arthur Fonzarelli

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,459
29,303
All the young players should take steps forward as they approach their prime. If Laine doesn't that's a scary thought. The d in the wings like Samberg Green, Niku give you a stronger 6 then kuli and an aging Buff. You have to remember the older players will become incrementally worse as they get further from their prime. A healthy back-up for Helly who can take some of the games will make the team incrementally better. We are not giving away the players we trade so one of those prospects or picks might help. Little having a bounce back season will make the team incrementally better. Roslo in the starting line-up makes the team incrementally better.
K-ves may make the team incrementally better in a few years.

I'm counting on some further growth from the young players but we have that with or without Buff. You are saying we can lose Buff and make up the loss elsewhere. That needs to be some change elsewhere not just the incremental improvement we were counting on getting anyway. If not, it is still a loss due to moving Buff.

Moving Buff still might be the best thing to do at some point, depending on how he is playing and what we could get for him. The cap recovery has value. I think his very good season and playoffs has pushed that back at least a year. We'll see.
 
Jun 15, 2013
5,571
5,282
Winnipeg
There was a thing about how Laines development was held back because he lost a season to knee problems.

Laine had left knee surgery in 2013 & even at the combine in his 2016 draft year still felt discomfort taking the VO2 test when the resistance was at it's highest.

Laine feels discomfort in knee at Scouting Combine

It was alleged back when Laine first made the comment that he "doesn't skate in the summers" that this may be a preventative measure. This was a few years back either on Illegal Curve or Arctic Ice Hockey. Comment was nothing official, quite likely pure speculation, but could very well be something that plays a role in his decision. Better safe than sorry.
 
Last edited:

Adam da bomb

Registered User
May 1, 2016
12,764
9,693
Laine had left knee surgery in 2013 & even at the combine in his 2016 draft year still felt discomfort taking the VO2 test when the resistance was at it's highest.

Laine feels discomfort in knee at Scouting Combine

It was alleged back when Laine first made the comment that he "doesn't skate in the summers" that this may be a preventative measure. This was a few years back either on Illegal Curve or Arctic Ice Hockey. Comment was nothing official, quite likely pure speculation, but could very well be something that plays a role in his decision. Better safe than sorry.
So how does that not get factored into his next contract? It might mean that he will miss playing time or that he will not develop in the future as well as we hope he does.
 
Jun 15, 2013
5,571
5,282
Winnipeg
So how does that not get factored into his next contract? It might mean that he will miss playing time or that he will not develop in the future as well as we hope he does.

Until it physically manifests itself, I doubt it plays a role in negotiations.

Not skating will certainly will affect his growth as a player. Perhaps it could be the difference between him being a perennial 30-40 goal scorer vs. his ceiling as the best scorer of his generation.
 
Last edited:

Adam da bomb

Registered User
May 1, 2016
12,764
9,693
Until it manifests itself, I doubt it plays a role in negotiations.

Not skating will certainly will affect his growth as a player. Perhaps it could be the difference between him being a perennial 30-40 goal scorer vs. his ceiling as the best scorer of his generation.
what are Stamkos and Ovie in that perennial 30-40 goals? I don't know it seems like we are paying Laine as if he was the best scorer of his generation.
 
Jun 15, 2013
5,571
5,282
Winnipeg
what are Stamkos and Ovie in that perennial 30-40 goals? I don't know it seems like we are paying Laine as if he was the best scorer of his generation.

Confused by your questions.

Stamkos spent his 5 of his first 6 seasons on pace for 45-60 goal seasons. Ovie had had 7 such seasons.

Laine certainly isn't there yet.

I don't know how it "seems we are paying Laine as if he was the best scorer of his generation" considering we're currently not.
 

cbcwpg

Registered User
May 18, 2010
20,247
20,865
Between the Pipes
In the last 20 years only one time did a player actually change teams due to signing as a restricted free agent (Dustin Penner going from Anaheim to Edmonton in 2007). Once. Every other time either the player has spurned another team’s offer to go back to their “old” team, or the old team has matched the offer almost instantly, leaving the would-be-suitor with nothing to show for it.

The real reason NHL teams can’t and don’t use offer sheets

****

Found this interesting. Begs the question... why have offer sheets?
 

Gil Fisher

Registered User
Mar 18, 2012
7,688
5,071
Winnipeg
If Trouba were to get traded at the draft, how would you feel about this return:

Ryan McDonagh
Cal Foote
2019 #1 TB draft pick

Important to sign or flip McDonagh after July 1, I think, in this scenario.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JetBlue420

Gm0ney

Unicorns salient
Oct 12, 2011
14,615
13,381
Winnipeg
In the last 20 years only one time did a player actually change teams due to signing as a restricted free agent (Dustin Penner going from Anaheim to Edmonton in 2007). Once. Every other time either the player has spurned another team’s offer to go back to their “old” team, or the old team has matched the offer almost instantly, leaving the would-be-suitor with nothing to show for it.

The real reason NHL teams can’t and don’t use offer sheets

****

Found this interesting. Begs the question... why have offer sheets?
Because the NHLPA wants them. Their existence does put some upward pressure on RFA salaries. And it gives a player who doesn't want to play in his current city some extra leverage.

The NHL's old boys' club and their general resistance to new ideas helps to keep the frequency of offer sheets low.

You really need the right combination of a smart/devious/foolish/desperate GM, plus cap space (and the willingness to spend money), plus a team in a vulnerable position (limited cap space, lots of RFAs) with RFAs willing to sign an offer sheet.

I think Vegas may have the right combo on their side of the ledger - and the Jets might be the most vulnerable team in the league.
 

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,459
29,303
If Trouba were to get traded at the draft, how would you feel about this return:

Ryan McDonagh
Cal Foote
2019 #1 TB draft pick

Important to sign or flip McDonagh after July 1, I think, in this scenario.

Why flip McDonagh? Why have you made him part of the deal to begin with if we are just going to flip him? What's the thinking there?

I'd rather have Stralman. I think that works better for TBL because Trouba replaces Stralman. It is also better for Jets because Stralman plays RD while Foote develops.

What do you think of dropping the 1st and adding Tyler Johnson? He is surplus to TBL's needs, IMO. They need the cap relief if they are to take on Trouba. With Trouba gone, I think we can fit him into our cap budget.

Do we then need to add? If we have Johnson, Rosie can stay at RW. We could add Armia if necessary. That also gains us a bit of cap space to make sure Johnson fits. Or we could add Dano or Petan, but they don't save us any cap.
 

Gil Fisher

Registered User
Mar 18, 2012
7,688
5,071
Winnipeg
Why flip McDonagh? Why have you made him part of the deal to begin with if we are just going to flip him? What's the thinking there?

I'd rather have Stralman. I think that works better for TBL because Trouba replaces Stralman. It is also better for Jets because Stralman plays RD while Foote develops.

What do you think of dropping the 1st and adding Tyler Johnson? He is surplus to TBL's needs, IMO. They need the cap relief if they are to take on Trouba. With Trouba gone, I think we can fit him into our cap budget.

Do we then need to add? If we have Johnson, Rosie can stay at RW. We could add Armia if necessary. That also gains us a bit of cap space to make sure Johnson fits. Or we could add Dano or Petan, but they don't save us any cap.

Stralman and McDonagh both have a year left on their contracts...so same boat - you just want to be sure you can extend them if you want to include them in the deal. I think trading the LHD works better for TB, that's why I went with McDonagh. TB has Hedman and Sergachev in the top four on the left (and would still have Coburn on the bottom pair) compared to only Stralman on the right. Trouba joins Hedman, SErgachev and Stralman in the top 4.

What's the deal with Johnson - is he available? Do you think he'd work between Ehlers and Laine? Obviously need to pare Perreault and Meyers to take that much salary back. Even then, might have to trade Lowry as well and make Copp your 4th line C.
 

KingBogo

Admitted Homer
Nov 29, 2011
31,717
39,958
Winnipeg
In the last 20 years only one time did a player actually change teams due to signing as a restricted free agent (Dustin Penner going from Anaheim to Edmonton in 2007). Once. Every other time either the player has spurned another team’s offer to go back to their “old” team, or the old team has matched the offer almost instantly, leaving the would-be-suitor with nothing to show for it.

The real reason NHL teams can’t and don’t use offer sheets

****

Found this interesting. Begs the question... why have offer sheets?
Not sure why anyone is worried about offer sheets. Be more worried the Jets re-sign Hendricks for another season, it is about 100 X's more likely than losing one of our RFA's to an offer sheet.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mortimer Snerd

rehf

Fueled by Maurice
Feb 15, 2013
6,205
6,227
Winnipeg
I'm not sure what it will take at this point for people to actually think Trouba wants to stay here. He's said it from the beginning, it's always been about how's he was being used. He's now on his proper side, on a first pairing with a good partner on a cup contender... Why would you want out on that?

Oh right, because Winnipeg.

Okie dokie then
 

Gil Fisher

Registered User
Mar 18, 2012
7,688
5,071
Winnipeg
I'm not sure what it will take at this point for people to actually think Trouba wants to stay here. He's said it from the beginning, it's always been about how's he was being used. He's now on his proper side, on a first pairing with a good partner on a cup contender... Why would you want out on that?

Oh right, because Winnipeg.

Okie dokie then

I think most of us think he's happy here. Not sure where you're coming from.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad