Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread: This is NOT the Hall for Larsson Thread (Read OP)

[hallhopkinseberle]

I think he's more of Gryba replacement.

He needs to be a Fayne Replacement.

 

[s7ark]

I think he's more of Gryba replacement.

True, but is a 7D that big a priority? I'm hoping for a D that will push Fayne into the 7 role. Like Wiz or Wideman.

 

[MessierII]

I don't know why everyone has Fayne written off. For the bulk of his time here hes been our most reliable own zone blue liner. By the end of last season he was with Sekera facing the toughest competition. I like his chances of success here more than any remaining free agent like Wis or whoever else is out there. Wis is the only guy I'd consider anyways because he has potential offensive upside and I'm willing to gamble on that for cheap right now.

 

[nabob]

I don't know why everyone has Fayne written off. For the bulk of his time here hes been our most reliable own zone blue liner. By the end of last season he was with Sekera facing the toughest competition. I like his chances of success here more than any remaining free agent like Wis or whoever else is out there. Wis is the only guy I'd consider anyways because he has potential offensive upside and I'm willing to gamble on that for cheap right now.

He was terrible in the first half of last season, but was actually pretty decent as a #6 guy to close out the season after being called back up.

 

[rockinghockey]

IMO Griff is the better bet to move to the right if needed. Right now we need Nurse to focus on being a LD IMO and more importantly to focus on his decision making speed with the puck. If we add Schenn and when Nurse is ready for a full time role, we will have some serious bite to our defense and make us an even harder team to play against.

Klefbom-Larsson
Sekera-Schenn
Nurse/Reinhart-Reinhart/RH offensive defenseman

I could definitely live with that the season after next even if Davidson gets claimed.

If we could get Schenn under $2 million for 3-4 years I'd consider it for sure.

No way I sign Schenn for 3-4 yrs, I would rather keep Fayne I have a feeling he will have a bounce back year, plus Fayne did play well with Sekera so why tamper with what is proven

 

[nexttothemoon]

Fayne simply hasn't been good over the past 3 years...

Look at his GF/GA stats when he's on the ice 5 on 5 relative to his teammates:

1.86 GF/60 versus 1.99 GF/60 for his teammates
2.56 GA/60 versus 2.37 GA/60 for his teammates


So basically he makes his team worse both defensively and offensively when he's on the ice.

Granted he's had a dzone push... 27.3% ozone faceoffs vs 33.7% dzone faceoffs... but that's not so severe that he should have a negative effect in both offense and defense.

He's just not that good of a dman in either end... and you really can't point to anything that he does that stands out as above average when you watch him play either.

I would honestly roll the dice with Davidson/Oesterle/Gryba in the lineup over Fayne.

Larsson
Sekera
Davidson
Oesterle
Gryba
Nurse
Klefbom


Is that a great top 7 to have as your dmen platoon? Not really... but I don't really think Fayne makes it any better either.

I'm not saying Wis or Wideman would really be needle-movers in terms of improvement either... but they would be better than Fayne.

 

[OilerTyler]

Fayne simply hasn't been good over the past 3 years...

Look at his GF/GA stats when he's on the ice 5 on 5 relative to his teammates:

1.86 GF/60 versus 1.99 GF/60 for his teammates
2.56 GA/60 versus 2.37 GA/60 for his teammates


So basically he makes his team worse both defensively and offensively when he's on the ice.

Granted he's had a dzone push... 27.3% ozone faceoffs vs 33.7% dzone faceoffs... but that's not so severe that he should have a negative effect in both offense and defense.

He's just not that good of a dman in either end... and you really can't point to anything that he does that stands out as above average when you watch him play either.

I would honestly roll the dice with Davidson/Oesterle/Gryba in the lineup over Fayne.

Larsson
Sekera
Davidson
Oesterle
Gryba
Nurse
Klefbom


Is that a great top 7 to have as your dmen platoon? Not really... but I don't really think Fayne makes it any better either.

I'm not saying Wis or Wideman would really be needle-movers in terms of improvement either... but they would be better than Fayne.

I'm pretty sure Fayne has consistently been given the toughest matchups over the last two seasons since he is the closest thing we've had to a shutdown defenceman. Of course he is going to have bad advanced stats. He is a second pairing defenceman (at best) that has been forced to play a shutdown role against the league's best players. Would any of Davidson, Oesterle, Gryba, Wideman or Wisniewski do any better in that role? I really don't think so.

With Larsson stepping into that shutdown role this year Fayne will actually be in a good position to succeed for the first time since he got here. I wouldn't go out trying to replace him with unestablished prospects or established bottom pairing defensemen just yet.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I'm pretty sure Fayne has consistently been given the toughest matchups over the last two seasons since he is the closest thing we've had to a shutdown defenceman. Of course he is going to have bad advanced stats. He is a second pairing defenceman (at best) that has been forced to play a shutdown role against the league's best players. Would any of Davidson, Oesterle, Gryba, Wideman or Wisniewski do any better in that role? I really don't think so.

With Larsson stepping into that shutdown role this year Fayne will actually be in a good position to succeed for the first time since he got here. I wouldn't go out trying to replace him with unestablished prospects or established bottom pairing defensemen just yet.

Strength of opposition is somewhat overrated imo. For most dmen it's marginal with regards to the differences between them...

Again... over the past 3 seasons:

GF/GA ratio of opposition they have faced:

Klefbom 50.6%
Davidson 50.6%
Sekera 50.5%
Nurse 50.4%
Fayne 50.3%
Oesterle 50.1%
Ference 50.1%
Gryba 49.9%
Reinhart 49.6%


Fayne has faced pretty much the same level of competition as the rest of the Oilers dmen... the GF/GA ratios do balance out fairly well over the course of several seasons.

 

[Slatsmsg]

unless you get a clear upgrade on Fayne at a reasonable price he should play 2nd pairing with Sekera

 

[Bryanbryoil]

No way I sign Schenn for 3-4 yrs, I would rather keep Fayne I have a feeling he will have a bounce back year, plus Fayne did play well with Sekera so why tamper with what is proven

If we could get him for under $2 million for 3-4 years I'd pounce on it. Then look to move out Fayne when we finally find a top 4 RHD that provides offense. I have a hard time believing that Fayne at $3.6 million is a whole hell of a lot better than Schenn at $2.0 million. Schenn puts up more points, is tougher and plays much more physical. Schenn could be a really good bargain guy if he's willing to sign more than 2 years at $2 million or under.

 

[Fourier]

Strength of opposition is somewhat overrated imo. For most dmen it's marginal with regards to the differences between them...

Again... over the past 3 seasons:

GF/GA ratio of opposition they have faced:

Klefbom 50.6%
Davidson 50.6%
Sekera 50.5%
Nurse 50.4%
Fayne 50.3%
Oesterle 50.1%
Ference 50.1%
Gryba 49.9%
Reinhart 49.6%


Fayne has faced pretty much the same level of competition as the rest of the Oilers dmen... the GF/GA ratios do balance out fairly well over the course of several seasons.

The problem is that typical measures for strength of opposition are not very good. First pairing defensemen face much tougher opposition than third pairing guys. But this is not reflected by GF/GA%. In today's NHL it is very common to see best on best match-ups and fourth liner vs fourth liners. So all GF/GA% is going to tell you is how well a player did against comparable competition. Connor McDavid and Matt Hendricks had almost the same GF% but if you were a defenseman which of those two would you consider most difficult to handle. If you are playing the Islanders would it be Tavares or Bernier?

Take a look at Fayne's most frequent opposition over the last two years:

H Sedin, D. Sedin, Vrbata Lucic Gaudreau, Kopitar, Hanzal, Kesler, Pavelski, Toffoli, Getzlaf, Marleau, Couture, Thornton, Perry.

Now compare that with Gryba from last year:

Stajan, Frolick, Gaudreau, Lewis, Janmark, Roussel, Shore, Hemsky, Gaborick, Raymond, Joorish, Ferraro, Jaskin, Backlund.

SO can you really say that as Oilers they faced similar opposition just because there is only a marginal difference in their GF%?

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

]If we could get him for under $2 million for 3-4 years I'd pounce on it.[/B] Then look to move out Fayne when we finally find a top 4 RHD that provides offense. I have a hard time believing that Fayne at $3.6 million is a whole hell of a lot better than Schenn at $2.0 million. Schenn puts up more points, is tougher and plays much more physical. Schenn could be a really good bargain guy if he's willing to sign more than 2 years at $2 million or under.

This is a terrible idea, completely terrible. If you can do $1M for 1yr, I would still have reservations. He's not good.

 

[Mcnofool6110]

How would everyone feel if Yak was moved out for Petrovic and picks, then signing Brandon Pirri?

Lucic-McDavid-JPP/Pirri
Pouliot-RNH-Eberle
Maroon-Draisaitl-Pirri/JPP
Hendricks-Letestu-Khaira
Pak

Klefbom-Larsson
Sekera-Petrovic
Davidson-Nurse/Fayne
Nurse/Fayne

 

[Bangers]

Fayne sucks, but his contract would hurt the cap too much to buy him out and he's basically unmovable at the moment.

Best case scenario for the Oilers is to shelter him on a lower pairing, hope he can look like a real NHL defenceman, and move him on next year (when his cap hit is less of a boat anchor for other teams to acquire).

 

[McOvechking]

Fayne sucks, but his contract would hurt the cap too much to buy him out and he's basically unmovable at the moment.

Best case scenario for the Oilers is to shelter him on a lower pairing, hope he can look like a real NHL defenceman, and move him on next year (when his cap hit is less of a boat anchor for other teams to acquire).

He looked like a real NHL defenseman with Sekera last year.

Anyone thinking Wiz/Schenn/Boyle/Wideman would be any better than Fayne is just deluding themselves.

 

[Bangers]

He looked like a real NHL defenseman with Sekera last year.

Anyone thinking Wiz/Schenn/Boyle/Wideman would be any better than Fayne is just deluding themselves.

That's just because our standards of what a real defenceman looks like have been lowered by a decade of mostly craptastic D.

I agree thatthe other alternatives are equally bad unless Wiz can regain his pre-injury form.

 

[nexttothemoon]

The problem is that typical measures for strength of opposition are not very good. First pairing defensemen face much tougher opposition than third pairing guys. But this is not reflected by GF/GA%. In today's NHL it is very common to see best on best match-ups and fourth liner vs fourth liners. So all GF/GA% is going to tell you is how well a player did against comparable competition. Connor McDavid and Matt Hendricks had almost the same GF% but if you were a defenseman which of those two would you consider most difficult to handle. If you are playing the Islanders would it be Tavares or Bernier?

Take a look at Fayne's most frequent opposition over the last two years:

H Sedin, D. Sedin, Vrbata Lucic Gaudreau, Kopitar, Hanzal, Kesler, Pavelski, Toffoli, Getzlaf, Marleau, Couture, Thornton, Perry.

Now compare that with Gryba from last year:

Stajan, Frolick, Gaudreau, Lewis, Janmark, Roussel, Shore, Hemsky, Gaborick, Raymond, Joorish, Ferraro, Jaskin, Backlund.

SO can you really say that as Oilers they faced similar opposition just because there is only a marginal difference in their GF%?

Yes I can say that... because the opposition they face 5 on 5 averages out pretty much equally... as they don't face JUST those tough opponents... the stats don't really lie... the opposition they face over the course of a season (or several seasons especially) is a combo of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th line forwards and 1st/2nd/3rd D pairings.

When you take into account home and road games and how matchups vs toughest opponents aren't always possible... it's somewhat of an illusion that certain dmen actually get harder matchups on average than others.

This is borne out by the stats... there are differences... but they are actually pretty slight.

 

[McOvechking]

That's just because our standards of what a real defenceman looks like have been lowered by a decade of mostly craptastic D.

I agree thatthe other alternatives are equally bad unless Wiz can regain his pre-injury form.

Yeah, was more trying to get at the fact that these names being tossed around aren't exactly upgrades over Fayne.

I'm all for getting a better defender than him, but I'd rather pony up the assets for a guy like Spurgeon.

 

[The Safe Play]

Sign me up for Yak for Petrovic and signing Pirri.

Keeps Nurse in the minors where he should be.

 

[OilerFan4Life]

Um, so this is the source of the Petrovic rumor?

Has he broken anything before?

http://www.beerleagueheroes.com/oilers-talking-panthers-yak-moving/

 

[OilerFan4Life]

Petrovic just started following Stauffer, OilersNation and Lowetide on twitter...

https://twitter.com/6Apetro/following

 

[PatrikOverAuston]

Would love to get Petrovic here. Big body, untapped offensive potential, already a solid #4/5. If Yak can return him that's a big win, although I think we add a prospect D to keep Florida's pipeline stocked.

 

[OilerFan4Life]

Would love to get Petrovic here. Big body, untapped offensive potential, already a solid #4/5. If Yak can return him that's a big win, although I think we add a prospect D to keep Florida's pipeline stocked.

Yak and a left-shot D for Petrovic and a pick.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Yak and a left-shot D for Petrovic and a pick.

Yak and Musil for Petrovic and Pysyk? Maybe.

 

[PatrikOverAuston]

Yak and a left-shot D for Petrovic and a pick.

Yeah, something like Yak + Simpson for Petrovic + 2nd/3rd would fit the bill. That pick would especially come in handy if we were to suddenly lose a couple by way of an offer sheet as well.