Prospect Info: Round 7, 199th overall: Matteo Mann, RHD, Chicoutimi (QMJHL)
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BernieParent
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Deadpool8812
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- Feb 10, 2018
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What kind of draft pick was this? I know it seems short sighted, but this guy has shit numbers in juniors...what was the appeal to draft him?
Fight4yourRight
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If he turns into anything more than a bottom pairing AHL d man, I’ll just give up hockey
FLYguy3911
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Does he not play with a puck on the ice?
He does, but he played for a weak team (16 of 18) who struggled to score goals and he doesn't normally play the PP (Tivey, Bilodeau and Ianniello are the PP D).
BernieParent
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FLYguy3911
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Right, but this would imply he's played on weak teams his whole career. At a certain point it's on the player and not the teams he's played on. Which if we're talking about a legit NHL prospect here (he was the only drafted prospect on the team for most of the season), he should be able to stand out among his (relatively weak) peers. Being a PP guy is part of that. 5th on your own blueline in scoring as you exhaust your junior eligibility? Not a great outlook for your pro career.
Chicoutimi went for it in 19-20 and 20-21 (his 16 yo year). He played his 17 year old season on year 0 of a rebuild and his 18 on year 1. Chicoutimi got a lot better this year, but Saint John is in year 1 of their own rebuild (two years post Memorial Cup).
It's great to say that he should be doing more, but Ianniello and Bilodeau are both offensive D who have the puck on their sticks in the offensive zone a lot.
There's a reason why you take stats with a grain of salt. Mann was very good defenisvely.
FLYguy3911
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Who do you think are the best defensive defensemen in the NHL who don't put up big point totals?
Carlo, Cernak, Benoit were all DFD in the CHL.
Virtually every other DFD in the NHL was a TWD in junior who adapted.
Something to keep in mind is that the failure rate of CHL DFD is high, but not impossible.
LegionOfDoom91
Registered User
Mann - 0.18 PPG
Benoit - 0.24 PPG
Carlo - 0.35 PPG
Cernak - 0.40 PPG
Benoit would be the closest & I’d very much imagine he’s pretty close to the exception of guys who scored that low in the CHL but still made the NHL. Carlo & Cernak scored in the CHL at a noticeably higher rate than Mann.
Benoit - 0.24 PPG
Carlo - 0.35 PPG
Cernak - 0.40 PPG
Benoit would be the closest & I’d very much imagine he’s pretty close to the exception of guys who scored that low in the CHL but still made the NHL. Carlo & Cernak scored in the CHL at a noticeably higher rate than Mann.
Appleyard
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In the last 20 years, the worst 5 stats profiles in draft year for drafted Dmen who became NHLers:
Jakub Kindl: 0.23 P/GP, 0.11 non-PP P/GP, 6.7% of team production
Rob Bortuzzo: 0.22 P/GP, 0.13 non-PP P/GP, 5.7% of team production
Ben Chiarot: 0.18 P/GP, 0.16 non-PP P/GP, 5.4% of team production
Mark Fraser: 0.14 P/GP, 0.14 non-PP P/GP, 4.1% of team production
Jake Muzzin: 0.11 P/GP, 0.08 non-PP P/GP, 3.3% of team production
Matteo Mann: 0.11 P/GP, 0.11 non-PP P/GP, 3.2% of team production
Annnnd their draft+1:
Jakub Kindl: 0.98 P/GP, 0.18 non-PP P/GP, 26.1% of team production
Rob Bortuzzo: 0.35 P/GP, 0.27 non-PP P/GP, 8.2% of team production
Ben Chiarot: 0.31 P/GP, 0.27 non-PP P/GP, 9.5% of team production
Mark Fraser: 0.09 P/GP, 0.07 non-PP P/GP, 2.4% of team production
Jake Muzzin: 0.27 P/GP, 0.12 non-PP P/GP, 7.4% of team production
Matteo Mann: 0.31 P/GP, 0.24 non-PP P/GP, 11.4% of team production
So yeh...
Jake Muzzin and Mark Fraser, out of 425 CHL Dmen drafted between 2005-2020, made the NHL with such low-end seasons as Mann has had at age 17-18. 113/425 guys made the NHL and stuck.
The odds of him making the NHL are infinitesimal.
Jakub Kindl: 0.23 P/GP, 0.11 non-PP P/GP, 6.7% of team production
Rob Bortuzzo: 0.22 P/GP, 0.13 non-PP P/GP, 5.7% of team production
Ben Chiarot: 0.18 P/GP, 0.16 non-PP P/GP, 5.4% of team production
Mark Fraser: 0.14 P/GP, 0.14 non-PP P/GP, 4.1% of team production
Jake Muzzin: 0.11 P/GP, 0.08 non-PP P/GP, 3.3% of team production
Matteo Mann: 0.11 P/GP, 0.11 non-PP P/GP, 3.2% of team production
Annnnd their draft+1:
Jakub Kindl: 0.98 P/GP, 0.18 non-PP P/GP, 26.1% of team production
Rob Bortuzzo: 0.35 P/GP, 0.27 non-PP P/GP, 8.2% of team production
Ben Chiarot: 0.31 P/GP, 0.27 non-PP P/GP, 9.5% of team production
Mark Fraser: 0.09 P/GP, 0.07 non-PP P/GP, 2.4% of team production
Jake Muzzin: 0.27 P/GP, 0.12 non-PP P/GP, 7.4% of team production
Matteo Mann: 0.31 P/GP, 0.24 non-PP P/GP, 11.4% of team production
So yeh...
Jake Muzzin and Mark Fraser, out of 425 CHL Dmen drafted between 2005-2020, made the NHL with such low-end seasons as Mann has had at age 17-18. 113/425 guys made the NHL and stuck.
The odds of him making the NHL are infinitesimal.
Nobody is arguing against that, but using points isn't great, because all of the guys that I mentioned were playing on contenders (where they would get a lot of cheap points).
Appleyard
Registered User
Well, that is why I added % of team production! Because that accounts for that.
And yeh, you may have mentioned a few guys who were on contenders! But I have a comprehensive database of all of the 555 CHL Dmen drafted over the last 20 years including everyone who was not on a contender too.
Not ONE single NHL Dman in the last 20 years out of the OHL got as low a % as Mann in his draft year. No-one.
His production sucks regardless of how many his team score.
His profile "this" year, had he done it last year? Would only give him like a ~10% chance of making the NHL.
Because 11% of direct team production is far below average for guys who make the NHL.
The average in draft year? Not even draft+1? Around 19%.
The average #5-7 Dman... in their draft year? Around 16%. Draft+1 I dont have the stats for but given general progression amongst some sample I worked on a while back? It probably jumps over 22% in draft+1 on average.
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Appleyard
Registered User
Also, of the 42 players drafted out of the CHL in the last 20 years in draft+1?
Josh Brown is the ONLY one with similar or worse stats to Mann in draft+1 who "made it." (239 games as a #6-7)
0.24 P/GP, 0.21 non-PP P/GP and 6.9% of direct team scoring.
Josh Brown is the ONLY one with similar or worse stats to Mann in draft+1 who "made it." (239 games as a #6-7)
0.24 P/GP, 0.21 non-PP P/GP and 6.9% of direct team scoring.
JojoTheWhale
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I enjoy trying to project diamonds in the rough as much as anyone. Trying to disentangle the skills that translate is fun. But there’s a point in that process at which you lose sight of overall quality of play. That’s the big danger because it tends to be catastrophic.
Appleyard
Registered User
And even if we look at the historically lower scoring USHL? (which is not quite the level of the CHL tbh and requires higher scoring levels to make NHL relative to league scoring)
Brian Lee is the only one of 146 1st time eligible Dmen who had close to the draft year production Mann had who made it... and he only played 12 games so that sample is a joke! And in draft+1? He was over 0.5 P/GP in the NCAA.
After that? Connor Carrick and Scott Mayfield (who both had double the raw numbers Mann had in draft year across board, and triple the % of team production).
And in their draft+1? Carrick put up 0.65 P/GP and like 20% of team production in OHL. Mayfield put up similar numbers to Mann! BUT in the NCAA, IE a far higher level.
Draft+1? Yeh, of the 18 drafted no draft+1 USHL D has ever "made it"... yet... (Lohrei, St. Ivany, Crozier, Pohlkamp might, but all 4 had far better draft+1 stats, double the scoring and double the direct production stats)
So there are ZERO Mann comparable drafted out of the USHL... out of over 160. And like 2 from the CHL... out of more than 500...
Brian Lee is the only one of 146 1st time eligible Dmen who had close to the draft year production Mann had who made it... and he only played 12 games so that sample is a joke! And in draft+1? He was over 0.5 P/GP in the NCAA.
After that? Connor Carrick and Scott Mayfield (who both had double the raw numbers Mann had in draft year across board, and triple the % of team production).
And in their draft+1? Carrick put up 0.65 P/GP and like 20% of team production in OHL. Mayfield put up similar numbers to Mann! BUT in the NCAA, IE a far higher level.
Draft+1? Yeh, of the 18 drafted no draft+1 USHL D has ever "made it"... yet... (Lohrei, St. Ivany, Crozier, Pohlkamp might, but all 4 had far better draft+1 stats, double the scoring and double the direct production stats)
So there are ZERO Mann comparable drafted out of the USHL... out of over 160. And like 2 from the CHL... out of more than 500...
FLYguy3911
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I don't care to discuss in EA Sports NHL classifications, but this is my point about dismissing point totals at the Junior level. Of course you can poke holes through them, but most NHLers, even the the lowest skilled ones put up points at that level. It's a measure of decision making, puck skill, consistency. Matteo Mann will never be on an NHL PP, but operating a CHL PP can at least show that he has the ability to make plays with the puck, quick decisions under pressure, anticipate passing lanes - things that still do transfer over to being a good "defensive defenseman".
This works the other way too. If he plays on such poor teams, and he's an NHL caliber prospect, he should be able to get the minutes and usage to put up respectable production. Again he was 5th on his own team in D scoring this year. You saying the team wasn't good only makes the argument look worse.
LegionOfDoom91
Registered User
They took Carter Sotheran in the same draft in the later rounds. They both probably don’t have great odds from draft pick standpoint & both probably will have to take on defensive situations if they get the NHL. But I know what profile of the two I’d be more willing to bet on.
Yeah Sotheran plays on a contender but he’s still been productive in secondary & depth roles. This year he’d probably be the lead dog or at least the #2 in most other teams in the WHL. We even have micro data on him that paints a picture of a higher level offensive defensemen in the WHL.
Yeah Sotheran plays on a contender but he’s still been productive in secondary & depth roles. This year he’d probably be the lead dog or at least the #2 in most other teams in the WHL. We even have micro data on him that paints a picture of a higher level offensive defensemen in the WHL.
Beef Invictus
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Appleyard
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I mean, in his draft year?
For every THIRTY goals his team scored? He got a goal or assist on 1/30. That is not scoring being supressed due to being on a bad team... that is scoring being supressed because you cant pass or handle a puck.
Part of the reason the team was so bad was they had one D pairing that did nothing but get scored on.
