Series Discussion: Round 1 (Caps vs Flyers) 2016 Playoffs (times and dates included)

[Hivemind]

You're talking about 2 goals in 3 games. The ONLY 2 goals they scored. There are better defenseman than Orpik who have allowed more goals than that so far in these playoffs.

You are severely underestimating the impact of his heavy game. Ghost's goal in Game 4 does not go in if Orpik is in the lineup. He would not allow Simmonds to get that much room in front of the net. You think Schmidt was gonna push him out of Holtby's face?

Orpik allowed friggin Raffl that much room in front of the net. But right, he was magically going to stop the Flyers' actual net-front presence player when he hasn't stopped anyone else from crashing the crease. Got it.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

You're talking about 2 goals in 3 games. The ONLY 2 goals they scored. There are better defenseman than Orpik who have allowed more goals than that so far in these playoffs.

You are severely underestimating the impact of his heavy game. Ghost's goal in Game 4 does not go in if Orpik is in the lineup. He would not allow Simmonds to get that much room in front of the net. You think Schmidt was gonna push him out of Holtby's face?

This guy knows hockey.

 

[Bananas]

So you're saying that the supposed presence of "don't **** with us" is worth more than the fact Orpik is actually giving up goals against?

Personally, I don't care if they "**** with us" so long as the team wins. Giving up goals against is a great way to lose hockey games, and get bounced from the playoffs.

And, hell, it's not as if having Orpik (or Ovie or Wilson) has stopped the Flyers from taking liberties against the Capitals. Retribution is not prevention, and the proof is in the pudding this series. We've already seen Schenn take a run at about 5 or 6 different Caps players, Kuzy's knee get crosschecked, Wilson get wrecked by a headshot, Orlov get slammed into the boards, and Orpik get hurt. Having these "don't **** with us" players isn't stopping the Flyers from "****ing with us."

Proof is in the pudding, huh?

With Orpik: 3-0, .66 GA/G, 13-13 PK

Without Orpik: 0-1, 2.0 GA/G, 1-2 PK

Also, while having hard hitting, imposing players doesn't stop the other team from taking liberties, it makes it so the same liberties are a two way street. Orpik's hits to start the series, Ovie on Couturier and Schenn, Wilson's board, Burakovsky's slash. After Orlov was boarded both Kuznetsov and Burakovsky jumped right in the fracas. You think they're doing that if they don't feel confident that the other guys on the team have their backs? Having guys that lay the lumber makes the entire team more confident and more physically engaged. Think back to last year's first round. You think we could play that type of series with Taylor Chorney swapped in for Orpik? No Wilson?

I see a difference in the Caps overall style of play since Wilson came up and the Orpik signing. I think it's been beneficial team-wide. You apparently do not and would prefer Taylor Chorney and perhaps a Fleishman type on the third line.

Once again, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

On to the next question I guess...

 

[Hivemind]

Proof is in the pudding, huh?

With Orpik: 3-0, .66 GA/G, 13-13 PK

Without Orpik: 0-1, 2.0 GA/G, 1-2 PK

Oh yeah, that awesome 1 game sample size. Real good work there!

Care to run those numbers over the full season?

Also, while having hard hitting, imposing players doesn't stop the other team from taking liberties, it makes it so the same liberties are a two way street. Orpik's hits to start the series, Ovie on Couturier and Schenn, Wilson's board, Burakovsky's slash. After Orlov was boarded both Kuznetsov and Burakovsky jumped right in the fracas. You think they're doing that if they don't feel confident that the other guys on the team have their backs? Having guys that lay the lumber makes the entire team more confident and more physically engaged. Think back to last year's first round. You think we could play that type of series with Taylor Chorney swapped in for Orpik? No Wilson?

The team with the most hits doesn't win a hockey game. Getting retribution doesn't put a goal on the board. Burakovsky getting noogied by the referee doesn't count as a victory towards the Stanley Cup.

Do you think they need to play that style series to win? Do you seriously think that turning a hockey game into a wrestling match is going to play into the Capitals' best interests, long term? This is a team that's built to outpossess and outskill the opponent. Reducing the game into a sideshow is going to increase the variability of the series.

I see a difference in the Caps overall style of play since Wilson came up and the Orpik signing. I think it's been beneficial team-wide. You apparently do not and would prefer Taylor Chorney and perhaps a Fleishman type on the third line.

First off, we already have Marcus Johansson on the 3rd line.

I don't dislike physical play, at all. However, I don't yearn for physical play for the sake of physical play. I like a player that can make a timely hit to change possession. I dislike players that cannot play quality hockey while being physical. Players that only hit for retribution, rather than using their physical play to tilt the ice. The Kings don't hit for the sake of hitting, they hit to keep the puck on the right half of the hockey rink.

Right now I absolutely prefer Chorney to Orpik. Orpik is not using his physical tools to help keep the puck away from his own net. If some situations, Orpik's lack of physicality is costing him. He's not protecting Holtby's crease. He's allowing the other team to get quality chances in up tight.

 

[txpd]

Oh yeah, that awesome 1 game sample size. Real good work there!

Care to run those numbers over the full season? .

Full season anything does not apply in the playoffs. This is about 1 game right now. 1 game. Smallest sample size of games you can get.

Oprik played a primary role in 3 wins and was missing from 1 game and they lost.

This game tonight. They need to win. The result of what happens if they win is wildly different from if they lose.

Oprik is one of the few guys that keeps the locker room focused. What was the complaint here? Not focused in g4? Not enough effort? the guy in that room that cracks the whip is 44. If you prefer Chorney, you don't know what you are talking about. sorry if that was harsh

 

[Hivemind]

Full season anything does not apply in the playoffs. This is about 1 game right now. 1 game. Smallest sample size of games you can get.

Oprik played a primary role in 3 wins and was missing from 1 game and they lost.

This game tonight. They need to win. The result of what happens if they win is wildly different from if they lose.

Oprik is one of the few guys that keeps the locker room focused. What was the complaint here? Not focused in g4? Not enough effort? the guy in that room that cracks the whip is 44. If you prefer Chorney, you don't know what you are talking about. sorry if that was harsh

Thanks for your wonderful insight, txpd. I'm so glad we have the team doctor on these boards, as it not only provides wonderful medical insight, but also a glimpse inside the locker room. What else happened in the locker room in game 4? I want all the inside details!!!

 

[Langway]

Oprik is one of the few guys that keeps the locker room focused. What was the complaint here? Not focused in g4? Not enough effort? the guy in that room that cracks the whip is 44.

He really cracked the whip last year when they blew that 3-1 series lead.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

Orpik was a liability for much of his time on ice during the series. How anybody who watched the games can say otherwise is kind of crazy to me.

 

[artilector]

Full season anything does not apply in the playoffs. This is about 1 game right now. 1 game. Smallest sample size of games you can get.

Oprik played a primary role in 3 wins and was missing from 1 game and they lost.

This game tonight. They need to win. The result of what happens if they win is wildly different from if they lose.

Oprik is one of the few guys that keeps the locker room focused. What was the complaint here? Not focused in g4? Not enough effort? the guy in that room that cracks the whip is 44. If you prefer Chorney, you don't know what you are talking about. sorry if that was harsh

Wait, so statistical laws don't apply in playoffs? That's interesting. Fans should insist that seat belts be installed in Verizon center for playoffs -- what if gravity also doesnt apply and people might start floating up to the ceiling?!

This kind of sample size voodoo reminds me of similar arguments made initially about Laich, when he came back from injury. "But the Caps are 3-0 with him, 0-2 without -- explain that! Glue!". (Though, for some reason, the association that came to my mind was old horses and glue factories, I felt bad for the guy...)

Now, of course Orpik is a much more useful player than Laich, but this a terrible argument, come on people, there are much more subtle ways to manipulate data to help push your point of view!

Anyway, to me Orpik's main contribution is simply his ability to play significant minutes at playoff intensity and at a overall decent level, warts and all. If he is out, it places more burden on the main horses, and exposes untested players. Any given game, he can be replaced, but long term you have more risks..

As far as "heaviness", I think forwards play a much more significant role that defensemen. If you are running around in your own zone and need an Orpik to heroically clear creases and bash heads, you kind of lost the bigger battle at that point. It's a good to have a guy like that, but more for emergency situations, such as PK or when you are really forced to turtle.

In order to take it to the other team with a "heavy game", you need big/fast/mean/relentless forwards, who will establish a suffocating forecheck and long cycles. In fact, to support them, you might be better off with more mobile defensemen who can pinch effectively and close gaps quickly, not letting the other team take back possession.

Ward was the huge loss in that department, and we all knew it.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

A liability?! What a huge reach. Someone has to be on the ice for goals against. Mistakes happen. 44's positives outweigh his negatives by a mile.

 

[RandyHolt]

Do we think the Flyers are pissed Orpik is out injured?

I don't - nor have I read their fans chiming in about "bummer" as they needed him to score goals.

There is something to be said playing against a highly physical Dman for an entire series. And he is close to our only physical Dman. I know the anti deterrence crew disagrees. Kill em with skill!

Some fans would rather flash back to that puck going the same speed behind him as he was, and blame him for that goal, turn a blind eye to holts on that play, and be sour about it for an off season. Random **** like that happens in hockey.

We are soft as butter on the backend and the flies are going to be fearless up front tonight. While Nisky Carlson and others can crush if they want to, they don't. Orlov aside.

 

[artilector]

Orpik can be a liability, so can Orlov and Schmidt, but to me at present these are "manageable" liabilities, at least in Trotz's system. They make mistakes, but it's limited to a few shifts, not a game-long disaster every time they step on the ice. And they battle, so they still make the other team expend a lot of energy to earn their chances. I think it's something even an elite team can live with, from 4-6 guys.

 

[maybam]

...

As far as "heaviness", I think forwards play a much more significant role that defensemen. If you are running around in your own zone and need an Orpik to heroically clear creases and bash heads, you kind of lost the bigger battle at that point. It's a good to have a guy like that, but more for emergency situations, such as PK or when you are really forced to turtle.
...

This is something that is missed by a lot of fans. Thanks for pointing it out.

 

[hb12xchamps]

Orpik out for two games, two losses. Not saying that they are coincidental but then again maybe they are...

 

[HecticGlow]

Orpik out for two games, two losses. Not saying that they are coincidental but then again maybe they are...

And Neuvrith in for both the games we lost and Mason in for the three we won. Given that Orpik led to goals against in the first three games, but the Caps still out scored the Flyers, and while Orpik's out we've largely stopped scoring, I think the goaltender association is a much stronger one.

 

[Chukcha]

Hakstol is smarter than BB. Just change the goalie after 3-0 to change the flow of the series. That's why Varly was upset and demanded the trade.

 

[g00n]

We are outplaying them badly but we're not adjusting to the different goaltender.

As I said in the GDT, Neuvy is relying heavily on his glove. Caps must shoot low and hard for rebounds instead of floating pucks high glove. Neuvy is even playing pucks on his blocker side with his glove, but that shouldn't stop the Caps from shooting there.

I believe he's also cheating a tiny bit so that his glove is in better position for the shot. That should open up the chance to find a man weakside.

Just like when we got Halak'd, the Caps are shooting for volume and not really adjusting to the goaltender or defense. How many fake shots did you see last night? Not many, same as the MTL series. That allows the defense to adjust and gives the goaltender a clear view.

Fake shots, weakside support, low rebounds, high blocker.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Welp, I'm pretty much at the point where I expect things to go hilariously and soul-crushingly wrong. Not afraid to admit it. Had a bad feeling Neuvy would Halak us because that would be the most Caps thing possible and so far it's proven to be true. In addition, 65 and 14 have been two of our worst players. Kuznetsov is a non-factor. Chimera has been an absolute ghost. We need to shake the lines up.

Part of me says Neuvy can't save 75/76 shots and can't maintain a .987 save % for another 2 games. That same part says the Flyers haven't had more than two or three actual scoring chances in two games combined and can't just hang on for dear life and expect to score goals off of shin guards and skates. But, this is the Caps we're talking about. This feels exactly like 2010.

 

[Raikkonen]

Langway was right all the way.

This offense sucks. Game 3 - it was 2 lucky goals by Ovi and Kuzy which won us a game. That could be easily another even game if not for Mason.

Now if one can keep the expectations somewhere around 2nd round exit, this could be still nice entertainment.

Trotz has to adjust and he didn't yet. These lines suck. That's the usual Beaglechuck and Ovechkin heroes and not much else. I'd propose these:

Ovi-Kuz-Wilson
Mojo-Nicky-Oshie
Winnik-Beagle-Williams

or at least some kind of combination out of this top-9

Chimera-Richards-Burakovsky - the worst wingers with the slowest defense only center.

Both Chimera and Burakovsky are awful. Maybe even Galiev can do better than Chimmer now. Bura-Richards-Galiev? Maybe even that. We are waiting for Chimmer to do smth... and he fails. I'm not counting his lucky goal at all.

 

[Turd Ferguson]

We are outplaying them badly but we're not adjusting to the different goaltender.

As I said in the GDT, Neuvy is relying heavily on his glove. Caps must shoot low and hard for rebounds instead of floating pucks high glove. Neuvy is even playing pucks on his blocker side with his glove, but that shouldn't stop the Caps from shooting there.

I believe he's also cheating a tiny bit so that his glove is in better position for the shot. That should open up the chance to find a man weakside.

Just like when we got Halak'd, the Caps are shooting for volume and not really adjusting to the goaltender or defense. How many fake shots did you see last night? Not many, same as the MTL series. That allows the defense to adjust and gives the goaltender a clear view.

Fake shots, weakside support, low rebounds, high blocker.

Ovie slapshot off his right pad was almost perfectly placed on Williams stick had he been maybe 3 inches over

 

[BackVechkin]

We've beat Philly in their own barn before, with the most dominating victory. They had every reason to come out strong and they did. They scored in the first minute of that game, but we bounced back scoring 6! unanswered goals. Caps dominated the last two games, just need bodies in front of the net. Ovi mentioned it right after last game, and if theres one thing we know about him, he'll try his best to do what he says. Neuvy can't stop them all. Caps in 6.

 

[g00n]

Langway was right all the way.

This offense sucks. Game 3 - it was 2 lucky goals by Ovi and Kuzy which won us a game. That could be easily another even game if not for Mason.

Wait, so our goals were lucky but theirs weren't? That goal in Orpik's skates, another deflected, the one last night off of Chorney's skates as the PK ended?

We've DOMINATED them for all but 2 periods in 5 games. We're up 3-2 because of a hot goalie and a pigheaded notion that shooting through a goaltender's chest will eventually penetrate bone. That's not the roster composition, that's bad hockey IQ, and Trotz's assistants have to be aware enough to bring it to his attention.

 

[BackVechkin]

Flyers fans say their team is horrible in afternoon games as well, so this is a positive right.

 

[tycoonheart]

I wouldn't mess with the top line, they're playing pretty well.

I'd actually drop Bura from that 2nd line and replace him with Mojo.

 

[txpd]

aint gonna happen, but

8-19-77
90-92-14
25-83-43
65-10-26