Value of: ROR's next contract.

Rodge

Registered User
Feb 5, 2021
7
11
Anyone who thinks that O'Reilly will be looking to give any team a discount - they, really, don't know any of his history.

Every single contract, that O'Reilly has ever signed, has involved him pushing the returns to the absolute max. Now, there's nothing wrong with that - he's a professional athlete and he needs to maximise his earnings while he can. But, he's proved, repeatedly, that he wants to be fully paid for his services and has never given any team a "discount". He, also, is represented by Newport - who are well known forplaying hardball and extracting the maximum value for their clients.

Even when it came to his big payday in Buffalo. With hindsight, it was a good contract, and was the 20th highest (by AAV) in the NHL, at the time. But, once again, O'Reilly extracted the maximum by having the contract pay him a minimum annual salary and have the contract dominated by yearly signing bonuses (so, all the cap escrow pain that other players felt - that didn't affect players like O'Reilly).

So, for the people saying things like
"think he'd accept a 1x8 mil?"
"only 1-2 year term"
"Something like 2 years $5 million AAV. Maybe someone gives him the 3rd year."
"5.5 x 3 for ROR."
"3 years x 7 mil per"
"6.5 x 3 or 6 x 4."
"4 years, $6.5 million-7 million per"
"I would offer him 5 years, 30 million"

Sorry, but none of you are thinking like a real GM and none of these figures are even close to what he's going to ask for, and will get.

He's 32 years old (already, this year), he's the best UFA C on the market and he's a proven playoff performer. He has his SC ring already, so I'd say he'll want to go to a contender - but, he will be looking for a proper retirement contract. Since I don't think the Leafs can afford to keep him, he's going to move - which means his contract demand will, 100%, be a 7 year length. The minimum he'll get is going to be $7m. Newport will ask for more and it is possible to see a bidding war for him.
 

centipede2233

Registered User
Sep 13, 2010
4,167
4,468
I think a team will sign a 4/5 yr contract at 6 millionish AAV.

structured like the malkin contract, front loaded first 4 yrs, then a big signing bonus entering the 5th year with only a million in salary which means he retires after the bonus (forfeiting the 1 million salary in the last year)
 
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93gilmour93

Registered User
Feb 27, 2010
18,945
21,688
O’Reilly wanted to go to Toronto at the deadline and will be staying with the leafs. Something around the 5-5.5 range per year
 

kevsh

Registered User
Nov 28, 2018
3,350
4,650
100%, be a 7 year length

Never say never, but I'd be absolutely stunned if he's offered 7 years.

I don't care who is agent is, he'll 39 when it expires after a noticeably down year for him at 32. The only path I see to something as insane as 7/7 is if the Leafs go to the final, he gets 10-15 goals, finishes top 5 scoring and wins the Conn Smythe.
 

TheFinalWord

Registered User
Apr 25, 2005
2,185
809
Someone is really going to regret signing him. But man, am I happy he's with the Leafs for this playoff run. He's everything he was promised to be. I just don't think he will be able to do the same thing year in and year out.
 

MAB1

Registered User
Jul 18, 2022
1,049
1,215
Never say never, but I'd be absolutely stunned if he's offered 7 years.

I don't care who is agent is, he'll 39 when it expires after a noticeably down year for him at 32. The only path I see to something as insane as 7/7 is if the Leafs go to the final, he gets 10-15 goals, finishes top 5 scoring and wins the Conn Smythe.
If 7 years bring's the AAV down to something like $3 million I'd do it. Sure he'd be 39 but locking in $3million AAV in a rising cap world?

I'd offer:

3x$7 million (contract ends just when McDavid becomes a UFA)
4x$6 million
5x$5 million
6x$4 million
7x$3 million
 

ToDavid

Registered User
Dec 13, 2018
4,095
5,096
Came in here to see how long it would take for a Leaf’s poster to make this prediction.

Didn’t disappoint.

This guy has chased money on more than one occasion… he is Keith Tkachuk’s long lost son.

What other occasion than a negotiation/offer sheet 10 years ago?
 

Rob Brown

Way She Goes
Dec 17, 2009
16,983
13,707
No you tape it and it plays. Did you seriously think commercials are live.....
Never said that. You made it seem as though commercials he filmed months ago or more as a Blue had anything to do with his decision this summer.
 

Bourne Endeavor

Registered User
Apr 6, 2009
37,831
6,163
Montreal, Quebec
O’Reilly wanted to go to Toronto at the deadline and will be staying with the leafs. Something around the 5-5.5 range per year

This was gonna be my take. O'Reilly specifically told the Blues when they asked if he could be traded to Toronto. I doubt he plans to go anywhere else after only half a year.
 

BlueTacos

Registered User
Jul 22, 2022
627
279
STL
Never said that. You made it seem as though commercials he filmed months ago or more as a Blue had anything to do with his decision this summer.
I was basically saying he has done commercials before why would that change his mind. He will be a blue again
 

TheKrebsCycle

Throwing Confetti for Perfetti
Jun 1, 2011
6,405
2,002
Barrie
What about Samsonov, Bunting and maybe Schenn?
Bunting is gone . Samsonov is a RFA and due a raise but should still be reasonable hit . Schenn could potentially stick around if willing to take 1 million ish . If they can find a taker for Murray it can fit ( with Oreilly ) but I don’t see a way outside of that beyond a core piece moving .
 

norrisnick

The best...
Apr 14, 2005
29,221
13,752
If 7 years bring's the AAV down to something like $3 million I'd do it. Sure he'd be 39 but locking in $3million AAV in a rising cap world?

I'd offer:

3x$7 million (contract ends just when McDavid becomes a UFA)
4x$6 million
5x$5 million
6x$4 million
7x$3 million
Are you just assuming that ROR and his management are bad at math?

If you would offer a 3 year deal worth $21M why would he spend a split second entertaining a 7 year deal that is also worth [checks notes] $21M?
 
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MAB1

Registered User
Jul 18, 2022
1,049
1,215
No you tape it and it plays. Did you seriously think commercials are live.....


So what's your point. He would make more money in stl than in Canada due to taxes.
LOL then why don't Americans flock to STL over LA or NY? Two places with taxes similar to Toronto.

There are far more ways for NHL players to earn money in Toronto than STL, that's a joke.
 

Mr Positive

Cap Crunch Incoming
Nov 20, 2013
36,126
16,586
I could see him leaving money on the table. Something like 6million. The Leafs won't offer term though, and maybe that's where OReilly gives them a break
 

tom leafers

Registered User
Jan 25, 2017
2,995
3,127
Toronto
Never say never, but I'd be absolutely stunned if he's offered 7 years.

I don't care who is agent is, he'll 39 when it expires after a noticeably down year for him at 32. The only path I see to something as insane as 7/7 is if the Leafs go to the final, he gets 10-15 goals, finishes top 5 scoring and wins the Conn Smythe.

Kadri got a 7 year deal and hes actually older then O'Rielly and both have very similiar regular season stats and around .70 points per game.

GM's have done dummer shit then would be giving ROR a 7x7
 
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tom leafers

Registered User
Jan 25, 2017
2,995
3,127
Toronto
With bunting and kerfoot 100% out the door, and a buy out for Murray- trading him isn't even necessary as that wouldn't only save us a bit more then buying him out- i hope we can keep ROR. just such a smooth, efficient player and clearly brings the leadership qualities the team needs.

i would even be happy giving him the Marleau contract- 3x$6.25m.

Nylander complicates things a bit though, and hopefully the Matthews/Marner dont get massive raises
 

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