I don’t disagree that much of last year was hideous for the caps and they still won the cup, but I’m concerned the reasons for struggles last year might be different to this year.
For most of last season we had 3 top-4 guys and 3 #6Ds. We got exposed a bit because of that, but mostly it was the generally beast play of Nisky, Carlson and Orlov that saved us until Kempny was added and settled in. This year? Orpik’s another year and another injury older, Nisky looks a little slower and like he’s out of sync, and Orlov’s regressed to closer to 2016 form. Carlson and Kempny have been our only consistently good pair. Last year the problems were in part resolved by adding Kempny and playing an even more sheltered, rested Djoos on the third pair. Adding isn’t going to make Orlov or Niskanen better - we won’t be replacing any of the guys in our top five - so the solution will have to come from within this time. Keep in mind too that when Djoos returns, it’ll be difficult to keep Siegenthaler up unless someone’s traded or a forward (Jaskin) is waived, because there will be neither the roster spot or cap space.
Holtby had one of his worst seasons in the NHL, and by March was evidently a big part of why the caps were losing. Stepping him down and working on issues with Murray and Korn saved the season, but Korn is no longer here and that was only possible anyway because we had a starter-quality backup who could carry the Caps for a month. Copley is playing like an NHL-quality backup, but he isn’t an underworked starter like Grubauer was, and isn’t able to consistently string together wins game after game. With the metro so tight, we can’t afford to lose half our games in March at present and still make the playoffs, which means Holts will have to play the whole season and won’t benefit from being physically and mentally rested come playoff time.
Most importantly, we had a lot of guys stepping up last year with things to prove. Wilson, Djoos, Bowey, Stephenson and Vrana were all pushed to the max, while Eller had a career year and we found strong top-six combos by the end of the year. But it was also a gradual process of roster improvement - we injected speedy, motivated youth into the lineup over the course of the year to fill the last remaining holes. They weren’t in the lineup from day one. Other than Siegenthaler, our roster has so far been consistent all year - there haven’t been any Aaron Ness, Graovacs or Walkers to push out, and equally no mid-season call-ups/ additions to bolster the lineup. Instead, we’ve relied on guys like Stephenson all year, and whether he’s in the lineup or not his NHL roster place is secure. So we’ve instead ended up with a less motivated/determined player who isn’t being pushed to the max. We played Stephenson and Eller in the top six for parts of the playoffs and didn’t miss a beat - this year they’re average 4th and 3rd liners respectively, but are barely performing well in those limited roles. We’ve pretty much already graduated our NHL-ready call-ups.
So yes, the team might be complacent as a whole, but we also have greater complacency from individual players who have far less to prove this year than before, and few guys in the system to challenge for roster spots. I’m worried that coaching can only correct this to an extent - the personal motivations (contract years, the threat of being stuck in Hershey etc.) are just as important. We need to add depth pieces, and don’t currently have the room to do so.