RE-DO the 1st & 2nd Rounds of 2005!!

[bullsville]

1. Sidney Crosby-No doubt about this selection,number one
2. Anze Kopitar-Nice player and nice steal by the Kings
3. Jack Johnson-He will be a very good dman
4. Paul Stastny-Another nice steal
5.Cary Price-The new Marty Turco
6. Guillaume Latendresse-He can be a very good player
7. Jack Skille-A lot of Blackhawks fans didnt like this selection...i love it
8. Gilbert Brule-He is not living with the expections...this year,check out next season
9. Marc Staal-I really like this dman..he is underrated
10. Luc Bourdon-Another good dman
11.Bobby Ryan-A bit overrated..but not bad at all
12. Tukka Rask-Solid goalie
13. Devin Setoguchi-A bit down...but you never know who the things can turn,and this kid has game
14. Benoit Pouliot-The same as Setoguchi
15. M-E Vlasic-Im not convinced at all of this guy...but now im trully convinced
16. Hanzal-Good player
17. Parent-The same as Hanzal
18. T.J. Oshie-This kid will be good...no doubt
19. N. Bergfors-Good prospect
20. B. Lee -He is progresing and that always good
21. Chorney-Another good player
22. Zagrapan-He can be good
23. Kindl-Nice selection
24. Cogliano-He is fast and skilled...in the new NHL this works
25. O'Marra-He is increasing his game and its a good player
26. McArdle-Good player
27. Lashoff-The same as McArdle
28. Downie-He plays hard and with passion and thats always good
29.S. Kostitsyn-Well ,progresing slow,but progresing

 

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

Oh come on people. For those of you who still have Downie ranked at 28, 29, etc.....buy a clue. If the draft were redone today, he would clearly be a top 10 player. A point and half per game guy, an agitator, a physical presence on the ice, and win at all cost attitude in spades should make him a no brainer in terms of a draft redo.

If a Habs fan can come on here and justify how Carey Price, Guilluame Latendresse and Sergei Kostitsyn can all be taken in the first round, then it shouldn't be that hard to make an argument that Downie belongs in the top 10.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

12. Tukka Rask-Solid goalie

The Rangers were not going to take a goalie in the first round in back-to-back drafts.

 

[Stammer Time*]

I don't think people that was the point of this thread, it was mainly rating the top players in the draft.

If it was then the Lightning got screwed because they had the 30th pick and everyone has done up to 29 only.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Why putting up a great performance at the WJC means squat for long-term NHL success:

http://www.kuklaskorner.com/index.php/hockey/comments/wjc_no_guarantee_of_nhl_success/

If I had the time, I'd dig out all the award winners at the WJC's over the last 10 years and we could see how many of them did squat in the NHL. (I'm betting there's a decent chunk that did squat - a cursory look at the scoring leaders from 1999-2003 shows a slew of guys who finished high on the list and have done nothing or next to nothing since. Anyone else remember when Jon Disalvatore was 3rd in scoring at the WJC's?) The point here is that using a 6/7-game tournament against players of the same age to make a judgment on how much better/worse a player is the year after he was drafted is like watching a player's performance in the 3rd period of the last game of a "3 games in 4 nights" stretch and trying to make an accurate call on how good that player will be in the future. It's probably worthless.

Which is why some people hate the WJC's - because people go nuts over the performance of a guy there and begin to wildly overrate (or underrate) him accordingly.

I'd say that a 59% success rate for the WJC All-Star Team producing good NHLers is pretty impressive, actually. It means that those prospects were more likely than not to make an impact in the bigs, and I'm not sure how that strips the lustre off of a tournament looked at by many as a barometer for future NHL players.

Unless someone considers the WJCs as the holy gospel and infallible soothsayer of NHL superstardom, it seems like it holds up fairly well to me.

 

[nomorekids]

A little surprised to see Parent staying put in most lists, and REALLY surprised to see that some have jumped into the first round...but not Franson.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I'd say that a 59% success rate for the WJC All-Star Team producing good NHLers is pretty impressive, actually. It means that those prospects were more likely than not to make an impact in the bigs, and I'm not sure how that strips the lustre off of a tournament looked at by many as a barometer for future NHL players.

The catch is, everyone thinks their guy is in that 59% that will go on to have success and not the 41% that won't. Not everyone is going to be correct.

Oh come on people. For those of you who still have Downie ranked at 28, 29, etc.....buy a clue. If the draft were redone today, he would clearly be a top 10 player. A point and half per game guy, an agitator, a physical presence on the ice, and win at all cost attitude in spades should make him a no brainer in terms of a draft redo.

He's a point-and-a-half per game guy ... in the OHL. I can put together a long, long list of guys who produced at that rate in major junior hockey and didn't come close to that in the NHL. For all the hype, Downie has never been touted as a top-6 guy with 60-70 point potential.

For reference: the career stats of one Ian Laperriere. Agitator, physical presence, win at all cost attitude, .... sound familiar? I think you're looking at a tad more upside with Downie, but certainly not enough to justify making him a top-10 player when all is said and done.

 

[LeafDangler]

The catch is, everyone thinks their guy is in that 59% that will go on to have success and not the 41% that won't. Not everyone is going to be correct.


He's a point-and-a-half per game guy ... in the OHL. I can put together a long, long list of guys who produced at that rate in major junior hockey and didn't come close to that in the NHL. For all the hype, Downie has never been touted as a top-6 guy with 60-70 point potential.

For reference: the career stats of one Ian Laperriere. Agitator, physical presence, win at all cost attitude, .... sound familiar? I think you're looking at a tad more upside with Downie, but certainly not enough to justify making him a top-10 player when all is said and done.

To add to that Darcy Tucker absolutely lit up the WHL and look at what role he has played in the NHL. Higher picks are usually reserved for guys who have potential to be gamebreakers. Downie is a solid pick but I'd be hesitant to take him any higher than he was with the potential of some of the other guys on the board.

 

[417]

Oh come on people. For those of you who still have Downie ranked at 28, 29, etc.....buy a clue. If the draft were redone today, he would clearly be a top 10 player. A point and half per game guy, an agitator, a physical presence on the ice, and win at all cost attitude in spades should make him a no brainer in terms of a draft redo.

If a Habs fan can come on here and justify how Carey Price, Guilluame Latendresse and Sergei Kostitsyn can all be taken in the first round, then it shouldn't be that hard to make an argument that Downie belongs in the top 10.

Carey Price & Guillaume Latendresse have both proven to be 1st round talents, Price was taken 5th overall and his stock has never dropped since he was drafted, in fact, since the WJC, his stock has risen.

Guillaume Latendresse is putting up solid numbers at the NHL level, playing on a 2nd line, how can you justify that he NOT be in the 1st round?

Sergei Kostitsyn is arguable, but for a guy taken very late in the draft, he's done all he can to have his stock rise, probably not a 1st round talent, but early 2nd isn't out of the question.

 

[Skyblaze]

Oh come on people. For those of you who still have Downie ranked at 28, 29, etc.....buy a clue. If the draft were redone today, he would clearly be a top 10 player. A point and half per game guy, an agitator, a physical presence on the ice, and win at all cost attitude in spades should make him a no brainer in terms of a draft redo.

If a Habs fan can come on here and justify how Carey Price, Guilluame Latendresse and Sergei Kostitsyn can all be taken in the first round, then it shouldn't be that hard to make an argument that Downie belongs in the top 10.

This needs to be debated some. Carey Price would definitely stay in the first round as he was arguably one of the two best goalies in the draft with Rask and was considered by some as a potential franchise goalie. He might not go as high as he went if the Habs passed on him but he'd likely still be a top-15 pick. I don't doubt that he'd always go ahead of Rask if only because it's less costly and easier for a team to influence his development while he's still in the juniors. His training camp performance alone warrants him a first round pick in a fantasy re-draft as he's shown that he could play in the NHL right now if the Habs were in dire need of a goaltender.

Latendresse might easily move up to late first round and not entirely unlikely to move up as high as in the 10s because the reason he fell to the second originally was that there were some concerns about his skating and his work ethic. He's shown so far that these concerns were unfounded by drastically improving his skating before making it to the NHL. There's still room for improvement mind you as he's far from being fast; but he's not exactly slow either.

Habs fans putting S.Kostitsyn in the first round are, however, most likely wrong. He'd certainly move up a LOT but there are still concerns about where his peak potential will be. He's shown that he can be a great junior player, but I do believe that the scouts were concerned about him improving on those skills enough to take a regular roster spot on an NHL team (shades of Rico Fata, not good enough for top 6, not quite suited for a checking line).

As for Downie, his stock got hurt by his propensity at taking bad penalties (something that he hasn't really fixed either; and probably won't). There are no knocks whatsoever on his hockey skills as long as he keeps to his growth curve but any slowing down and he might turn into little more than an agitator. He'd probably still get picked in the first round because at this point, there is little question that he WILL be a regular in the NHL. There is still concern that he's a player that will be awesome on one night and kill your own team on another night so saying he'd be a top 10 is a little bit far fetched. He would move up a few spots though. Who knows, maturity might bring him some discipline and he might turn out to be MUCH better than expected but that's really unclear at this point in time.

 

[caley]

Why putting up a great performance at the WJC means squat for long-term NHL success:

http://www.kuklaskorner.com/index.php/hockey/comments/wjc_no_guarantee_of_nhl_success/

An interesting read, but also interesting in the way he filters it to suit his needs. By only listing the Canadian all-stars for the years he's looking at he overlooks
1999: Brian Gionta
1997: Sergei Samsonov, Mike York
1996: Matthias Ohlund, Aleksey Morozov
1995: (This one was good, unless you count Anders Eriksson as a decent player)
1993: Kenny Jonsson, Markus Naslund, Peter Forsberg
1992: Mike Dunham, Alexei Kovalev, Michael Nylander
1991: Dmitri Yushkevich, Martin Rucinsky
1989: Pavel Bure, Jeremy Roenick
1988: Teppo Numminen, Alexander Mogilny, Sergei Fedorov
1986: Michael Pivonka
1985: Michael Pivonka, Esa Tikkanen
1982: Petri Skriko

Never mind the years where no Canadians made the all-star teams but players such as Olli Jokinen, Kimmo Timonen, Brian Leetch, Scott Young, Tomas Sandstrom, Igor Larionov and Pelle Lindbergh did.

Also, it's interesting the way he chooses the time-frame from between 82 and 99 so that it overlooks the following Canadian all-stars: Jason Spezza, Mike Cammallleri, Pascal Leclaire, Jay Bouwmeester, Marc-Andre Fleury, Dion Phaneuf, Patrice Bergeron and some guy named Wayne Gretzky.

If I had the time, I'd dig out all the award winners at the WJC's over the last 10 years and we could see how many of them did squat in the NHL. (I'm betting there's a decent chunk that did squat - a cursory look at the scoring leaders from 1999-2003 shows a slew of guys who finished high on the list and have done nothing or next to nothing since. Anyone else remember when Jon Disalvatore was 3rd in scoring at the WJC's?)

So, the point is some players ranked highly after the WJC have floundered while orthers have succeeded. The same can be said for the CSB rankings, ISS rankings, HF rankings etc. etc. A good showing at the WJCs does not ensure a productive NHL career, nor does it preclude it. A good showing in your last year of junior or college hockey does not ensure a successful NHL career, nor does it preclude it.

The point here is that using a 6/7-game tournament against players of the same age to make a judgment on how much better/worse a player is the year after he was drafted is like watching a player's performance in the 3rd period of the last game of a "3 games in 4 nights" stretch and trying to make an accurate call on how good that player will be in the future. It's probably worthless.

Again, there isn't much of a chance to see most of these players during the year. Sure, you could get a better inkling of a player's worth by watching him play from night to night, but that doesn't make the WJCs worthless. Consider a high number of college players who excel in daily NCAA competition but, realistically, the majority of the players they are excelling against are guys who are never going to rise above college, or maybe, at best, the UHL, or ECHL. In that way, you get to see some of the so-called elite prospects play against other elite prospects. It's not a catch-all, but it is a good barometer of a player's maturity level and NHL-readiness.

Which is why some people hate the WJC's - because people go nuts over the performance of a guy there and begin to wildly overrate (or underrate) him accordingly.

This is a message board post. The majority of the people here aren't NHL GMs or scouts, so it's not like under-valuing a prospect on a message board post is going to have any impact on that player's well-being. Getting all wrought-out over someone mis-ranking your favourite players because of their (admitted) limited exposure to them is kind of silly. I mean, I put Cody Franson in the first round because I've seen him play a lot and he looks like an NHLer. If someone puts Cody Franson outside of the first round because they didn't like his performance at the WJCs, I'm not going to start pulling my hair out and proclaiming how much "I hate the WJCs" because, well, it's a message board post.

[Downie]'s a point-and-a-half per game guy ... in the OHL. I can put together a long, long list of guys who produced at that rate in major junior hockey and didn't come close to that in the NHL. For all the hype, Downie has never been touted as a top-6 guy with 60-70 point potential.

And I can put together a long list of guys who produced at that rate in junior hockey who are excelling in the NHL. I don't think anyone here is positing that Downie is going to be an elite scorer at the NHL level.

For reference: the career stats of one Ian Laperriere. Agitator, physical presence, win at all cost attitude, .... sound familiar?

Laperriere played in the QMJHL whose players always have their statistics over-inflated. I mean, given that logic, you could argue that Mario Lemieux was an unsuccessful NHL player because he never equalled his 133 goal, 282 point final season of junior at the NHL level. Junior stats ultimately mean very little, Eric Staal last year equalled his best OHL point total in just his second season.

I think you're looking at a tad more upside with Downie, but certainly not enough to justify making him a top-10 player when all is said and done.

And I think, at the end of the day, if the draft were being held today, Steve Downie would go Top 10, maybe Top 5, largely on the basis of the fact that he is a competitor. A team like Minnesota, I'm willing to guess, would gladly pass up Benoit Pouliot, given his questionable work ethic and defence, in favour of taking Downie after what he has shown since his draft year.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The catch is, everyone thinks their guy is in that 59% that will go on to have success and not the 41% that won't. Not everyone is going to be correct.

If anyone thinks that the WJC All-Star team is an automatic for future success, then that person is stupid. But the same goes for players who win junior awards, players drafted in the first round, and players who do well overseas. Hell, it's true for players drafted first overall.

But if you're a betting man, 59% ain't not bad odds. It certainly gives ample reason for hope.

 

[Gags1288]

Downie is actually over 2 points per game this year, which puts him 3rd in the OHL in PPG behind Patrick Kane and Sam Gagner, though not too far behind. Combine that with everything else that he brings to the table and London's propensity to get their players points at all costs, and you've got what appears to be just about the best player in the OHL at this point.

Since being drafted, he has had great OHL regular season and playoff success. He has been a KEY ingredient on repeat Canadian WJC champions. He has also been a WJC all-star. Yet with all of that progression and all of those accomplishments since being drafted, some don't have him moving up in the draft at all.

 

[AlMo]

This could be fun! Redo the entire 1st and 2nd Rounds of 2005.
Which players would you move UP? Which players would you move DOWN?

Thanks to "BobbyOrr4ever" for this idea




IMO, I would move Carey Price UP to 3rd or 4th overall (maybe even 2nd overall!! Just to defy all the ones who doubted Price!!
I'd move Latendresse UP to the 1st Round (top 15 overall?).
And, I'd move Sergei Kostitsyn UP to (either) 1st or 2nd round.
Quickly...!!!! A non-Hab: I'd definitely move Stastny UP to top 10 or top 15 overall...?
Last non-Hab: I'd move Bobby Ryan out of top 10 (just for now! things can change next year...).

Moving Up

Kopitar
Vlasic
Staal
Stastny
Pavelac
Latendresse
Downie

Moving Down

Ryan
Setoguchi
Pokulok

 

[Randall Graves*]

Ryans stock has mainly fallen in the eyes of fans because people like to judge prospects on 2 things from what i've noticed here.

1. WJC's
2. Playing in the NHL

Now 2 is more important than 1 IMO but Ryan has been playing great the last 2 months, no his skating isn't great but his actual speed is pretty decent and his upper body strength and hands are very good.

Alot of it is instant gratification, some is bias, some is legit. If Ryan were playing in the NHL and had an underwhelming season like Brule would he stay around the same area like he is? Doubt it.

 

[Jeffrey]

I questioned Carbonneau decision to keep Latendresse with the team...
but right now, Latendresse is making carbonneau like a genuis.
He has so much improved since the start of the year, and you can see him make things i've never seen in a lots of our star players (mainly Kovalev and Ryder).. which is looking for pass 1st..
I really think he has the tools to be a great player...
Good thing for habs fans that we finally get a power forward, even better, a hometown Power Forward !!!

 

[boredmale]

An interesting read, but also interesting in the way he filters it to suit his needs. By only listing the Canadian all-stars for the years he's looking at he overlooks.

I took Irish's comment about the WJ more an attack on a guy like Pyatt who people will rate higher then he should be just due to the fact he played in the WJs.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

To answer every comment would just clutter things and probably bore everyone to death, but I'll pick on this one:

And I can put together a long list of guys who produced at that rate in junior hockey who are excelling in the NHL. I don't think anyone here is positing that Downie is going to be an elite scorer at the NHL level.

I guarantee the list of guys who produced at a high clip in juniors and went on to do squat in the NHL is *much* bigger than the list of those who produced at a high clip in juniors and both played at least 100 NHL games and averaged at least .50 ppg while there.

Leaning on scoring in juniors as any kind of sign of NHL success is a dangerous thing. Using it to raise where a guy would rate now while ignoring what his likely long-term upside is (which hasn't changed) is equally dubious.

 

[fr4ed2384]

Everyone is arguing over players -- when 1/2 of them are not even going to make an NHL roster.

in a redraft -- i think you start with the players who have Actually made the NHL rosters

Crosby,
Kopitar,
Latendresse
Statsny
Vlasic
These "prospects " are not worried who did well in WJC --there already in the game

For those who don't know M E Vlasic
plays 1st pairing D with Hannan on statistically the 2nd best defense in the NHL ,
plays 21 1/2 + min per game in all situations including 3 1/2 min PK , 3 min PP,

YTD:06-07 gms46 goals 2 assists 12 total pts 14 +9
On Pace: gms81 goals 4 assists 21 total pts 25 +16


NHL NOTES: 2006-07 CURRENT SEASON NOTES: - Leads League rookies in shorthanded time on ice per game (3:27) - 1st among all League rookies in ice time per game (21:36) - 2nd among all NHL rookies in blocked shots (65) - 3rd among rookie defensemen in points and assists (2-12=14) - T-2nd among League rookies in plus/minus (+9) - 2nd on team in avg. ice time (21:36), behind only Hannan

 

[Talent Analyst]

Where's the people who were high ... very high on Brule ?

 

[fredez]

I remember being very high on Bourret and Setoguchi. Any Atlanta or Sharks fans has any info on their progression?

 

[fredez]

Where's the people who were high ... very high on Brule ?

I remember monster_bertuzzi hyping him like hell. Even going as far to say that he could go 1st overall (ahead of Crosby).

 

[Mr. Hab]

Oh come on people. For those of you who still have Downie ranked at 28, 29, etc.....buy a clue. If the draft were redone today, he would clearly be a top 10 player. A point and half per game guy, an agitator, a physical presence on the ice, and win at all cost attitude in spades should make him a no brainer in terms of a draft redo.

If a Habs fan can come on here and justify how Carey Price, Guilluame Latendresse and Sergei Kostitsyn can all be taken in the first round, then it shouldn't be that hard to make an argument that Downie belongs in the top 10.

You just made this thread even more interesting!!
And...you just may have a strong point there.

I'm probably being waaaaay too nice with HAB prospects.
I'll move Kostitsyn to the 2nd Round (from 7th round to 2nd round). But, I believe that a team would now choose him in the 1st Round...I could be wrong, of course! (at worst...in the 2nd round).
I can move Latendresse towards 9th or 10th? I really believe that Latendresse will just get better and better (& I swear I was a major doubter when he was on the 4th line with Begin and Murray...it just didn't work...he has to be on the 1st or 2nd line). Why so high on LAtendresse? he's consistently playing on the 2nd or 1st line in the NHL (now), and he's improving and impressing at the same time (I'm now a believer...more now then when he was on the 4th line).
Price is a potential franchise goalie. If he turns out even close to that then it was worth it. IMO, the goalie is the most important position...(ex: Luongo 4th overall...M-A Fleury 1st overall...Lehtonen 1st overall? or Lehtonen was definitely top 3 overall...).

Downie impressed me in the WJC...I think (in the NHL) he'll be a solid 3rd liner (maybe even a solid 2nd liner). He should bring energy and solid two-way defense to the NHL + his agitating ways...
At first he (Downie) reminded me of Jordin Tootoo (both are approx. 5'10, 195 lbs, righthanded, agitators...). Downie should be better, more offensive upside (IMO). The worst that can happen...Downie will be one of the best 4th liners in the NHL!!
Right now (maybe) I should put Downie at #19 'cause I'd probably take Downie over Setoguchi!, but I'm not a professional scout...I could be absolutely wrong here but I'd still take at least 15 players or more ahead of Downie (Crosby, Kopitar, Staal, J Johnson, Price, Pouliot, Brule, Latendresse, Skille, Bourdon, Rask, Ryan, Vlasic, Stastny, Oshie...MAYBE even Cogliano over Downie 'cause of the offensive/speed upside). Just my opinion (one Hab fan here!...one!!).These are just my opinions, nothing is a fact. Not everyone will be happy with this list (below)...feel free to RE-DO it & put Downie in top 5 or top 10 (I won't feel offended!).

Cheers

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Everyone is arguing over players -- when 1/2 of them are not even going to make an NHL roster.

in a redraft -- i think you start with the players who have Actually made the NHL rosters

Crosby,
Kopitar,
Latendresse
Statsny
Vlasic
These "prospects " are not worried who did well in WJC --there already in the game

For those who don't know M E Vlasic
plays 1st pairing D with Hannan on statistically the 2nd best defense in the NHL ,
plays 21 1/2 + min per game in all situations including 3 1/2 min PK , 3 min PP,

YTD:06-07 gms46 goals 2 assists 12 total pts 14 +9
On Pace: gms81 goals 4 assists 21 total pts 25 +16


NHL NOTES: 2006-07 CURRENT SEASON NOTES: - Leads League rookies in shorthanded time on ice per game (3:27) - 1st among all League rookies in ice time per game (21:36) - 2nd among all NHL rookies in blocked shots (65) - 3rd among rookie defensemen in points and assists (2-12=14) - T-2nd among League rookies in plus/minus (+9) - 2nd on team in avg. ice time (21:36), behind only Hannan

No defenseman should be higher than Vlasic. None.

 

[Mr. Hab]

No defenseman should be higher than Vlasic. None.

You definitely made your point. And, just hearing about Vlasic, well...I've heard a lot of great things recently...

I guess I should/can put Vlasic in #7 or #8 spot...

But, would most GM's take Vlasic before Marc Staal and/or Luc Bourdon?

Anyways...

I'd love to see more 1st ROUND lists RE-DONE by some of you guys...
Done by YOU guys...

I already put mine up...