Prospect Info: 2016 Marlies and Other Prospects

[Stand Witness]

I dont buy that Gauthier type players are available in free agency

If Gauthier becomes the center version of Winnik that likely will be a good outcome for him.

 

[Joey Hoser]

It is what it is but we shouldn't be drafting 4th liners especially with a 1st round pick. I'd argue there is no point in drafting any bottom 6 players as we have learned that signing bottom 6 guys can be done every year for dirt cheap.

Shouldn't draft bottom 6 players? That doesn't even make sense.

 

[Stand Witness]

Shouldn't draft bottom 6 players? That doesn't even make sense.

Draft guys with high end potential, some will hit their potential, some will drop a bit, some will becomes 3rd/4th liners and some will bust completely. Fill out the 3rd and 4th lines with players via FA if needed.

No point drafting a guy you only ever hope to top out as a 3rd liner.

 

[mikebel111*]

Draft guys with high end potential, some will hit their potential, some will drop a bit, some will becomes 3rd/4th liners and some will bust completely. Fill out the 3rd and 4th lines with players via FA if needed.

No point drafting a guy you only ever hope to top out as a 3rd liner.

Gauthier certainly had top 6 potential if his offensive game developed which it hasnt. Still a useful player though

 

[zeke]

He was near ppg at age 17. That showed definite potential. He just was never able to build on that.

 

[BigWilly]

Listen... Gauthier was picked because he was a very late bloomer with raw skills. The Leafs, and many other teams and scouting agencies, saw the immense potential in a 17 year old 6'4" 200+ center that was all ready so good defensively.

In hindsight, his overall skillset has not developed as hoped but I think you still have a really good prospect despite the lack of offensive numbers.

I think it was a medium risk but very high reward prospect to take that late in the first round. I still don't see why people are still crying over him like it's the end of the world. Sometimes you hit a home run, sometimes you hit a single. Gauthier has done very well as a rookie in the AHL with nothing but praise from his coach to management to his peers... you can't say the same for players that are said to be a lot more skills but called do anything with it.

I agree with all of this.

 

[SprDaVE]

He was near ppg at age 17. That showed definite potential. He just was never able to build on that.

And a late bloomer compared to his peers. He started a year later than most prospects his age bracket because he was supposed to go to Harvard.

I was a fan of the pick even though he hasn't developed his game that much since. He's fast, great along the walls, obviously huge and plays a super smart game. It may not be flashy or pretty, but everytime I watch the Marlies he's always having a really good game.

I think he's the kind of player Babcock will love to use on the 2nd PP as a screener. Babcock always uses a big player in front of the net... and you also have a center that can win a lot of faceoffs, which is great in the offensive zone for a PP.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Draft guys with high end potential, some will hit their potential, some will drop a bit, some will becomes 3rd/4th liners and some will bust completely. Fill out the 3rd and 4th lines with players via FA if needed.

No point drafting a guy you only ever hope to top out as a 3rd liner.

Yeah I don't subscribe to that theory, that bottom half players don't mean anything and you can just pick up good ones you can win with whenever you want for nothing.

You're going to strikeout a lot if you try to hit a home run every time to the plate.

 

[Stand Witness]

Yeah I don't subscribe to that theory, that bottom half players don't mean anything and you can just pick up good ones you can win with whenever you want for nothing.

You're going to strikeout a lot if you try to hit a home run every time to the plate.

Did you just decide to completely disregard what I said?

I said pick guys with higher ceilings because when you hit you will have high end players but some of those players won't hit and will become 3rd/4th line players.

Just no point in drafting a guy that you never expect to become anything more than a 3rd liner.

Also what is the problem with the Leafs right now? Is it their top 6 or bottom 6?

You are going to strike out a ton regardless of what you do, thats just the name of the game. Might as well go for a home run every time when you odds aren't much better then going for a single.

 

[WTFMAN99]

He was near ppg at age 17. That showed definite potential. He just was never able to build on that.

I'm not going to claim to have seen Gauthier a bunch but I imagine if you're watching him, you're seeing *how* he's getting the points.

Anytime I've watched him, he seems to have limited puck skills (carrying/moving/deking etc) and his shot is really weak and awkward.

I haven't seen him this year so I have no idea if it's gotten better.

 

[topched]

And a late bloomer compared to his peers. He started a year later than most prospects his age bracket because he was supposed to go to Harvard.

I was a fan of the pick even though he hasn't developed his game that much since. He's fast, great along the walls, obviously huge and plays a super smart game. It may not be flashy or pretty, but everytime I watch the Marlies he's always having a really good game.

I think he's the kind of player Babcock will love to use on the 2nd PP as a screener. Babcock always uses a big player in front of the net... and you also have a center that can win a lot of faceoffs, which is great in the offensive zone for a PP.

2 guys I look at are Patrik Berglund and Martin Hanzal. Not saying Gauthier will be as good as either of them, but just in terms of usefulness to a team.

5 years ago this entire board was clambering for the Leafs to try and get either of them. They've both settled in as 30 point 3rd liners with the exact same build as Gauthier.

They never really built on their offensive game, but are still really valuable players on their respective teams. And both mid 1st round picks.

The vision for Gauthier was that if he developed a bit he could become a 50 point guy who was 6'4 and reliable in his own end. A very good 2nd line centre. Clearly his offensive game has lagged, but there's nothing saying he can't be a 25-30 point guy and be really damn good in a shutdown role. Getting a guy who can play in the NHL at any pick is a success.

 

[mikebel111*]

I'm not going to claim to have seen Gauthier a bunch but I imagine if you're watching him, you're seeing *how* he's getting the points.

Anytime I've watched him, he seems to have limited puck skills (carrying/moving/deking etc) and his shot is really weak and awkward.

I haven't seen him this year so I have no idea if it's gotten better.

Not flashy plays. But he gets his points by smart simple passes. Perfect example is yesterday's assist

 

[WTFMAN99]

Not flashy plays. But he gets his points by smart simple passes. Perfect example is yesterday's assist

Simple plays are fine by me, people see our Marlies play regularly are in a better position then I am to comment on him.

I last saw him at the rookie tournament/training camp.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Did you just decide to completely disregard what I said?

I said pick guys with higher ceilings because when you hit you will have high end players but some of those players won't hit and will become 3rd/4th line players.

Just no point in drafting a guy that you never expect to become anything more than a 3rd liner.

Also what is the problem with the Leafs right now? Is it their top 6 or bottom 6?

I don't believe scouts base everything on which line they'll play on. Doesn't make any sense since guys move up and down lineups throughout their careers.

They drafted Gauthier in the hopes he can be a dominant defensive player who can play a quality shutdown role, better than you get from a cast-off UFA or from Andreas Johnson were he not to make it as a goal scorer.

 

[LaPlante94]

We're acting like 3rd line players aren't an important piece on a successful team. Your 3rd line can be more important than your 1st line, especially if you have the lead.

 

[mikebel111*]

Simple plays are fine by me, people see our Marlies play regularly are in a better position then I am to comment on him.

I last saw him at the rookie tournament/training camp.

Thats fair. I wasnt sure Gauthier would translate well but he has been very impressive.
from what I read from stats, he takes on the toughest matchups for the Marlies

 

[WTFMAN99]

I don't believe scouts base everything on which line they'll play on. Doesn't make any sense since guys move up and down lineups throughout their careers.

They drafted Gauthier in the hopes he can be a dominant defensive player who can play a quality shutdown role, better than you get from a cast-off UFA or from Andreas Johnson were he not to make it as a goal scorer.

But if Andreas Johnson makes it as a goal scorer - he'd hold more value then Gauthier I'd imagine?

Thats fair. I wasnt sure Gauthier would translate well but he has been very impressive.
from what I read from stats, he takes on the toughest matchups for the Marlies

That's fine - he's apart of the Leafs now, I want him to succeed! I might not have been a fan of the pick but it is what it is.

A 6'4-6'5 centre who can help the PK, and give us solid minutes every night is an asset for sure.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think when they draft the Goat, they were thinking Kopitar. The Goat is not as bad as some people think, and he might be someone who will play the C with two really good scoring wingers.

 

[zeke]

And a late bloomer compared to his peers. He started a year later than most prospects his age bracket because he was supposed to go to Harvard.

I was a fan of the pick even though he hasn't developed his game that much since. He's fast, great along the walls, obviously huge and plays a super smart game. It may not be flashy or pretty, but everytime I watch the Marlies he's always having a really good game.

I think he's the kind of player Babcock will love to use on the 2nd PP as a screener. Babcock always uses a big player in front of the net... and you also have a center that can win a lot of faceoffs, which is great in the offensive zone for a PP.

yep, I thought the pick made some sense based on his skillset + numbers. He just stagnated offensively unfortunately.

IMO this is nothing like the Biggs pick, which was terrible from the get go.

 

[ULF_55]

2 guys I look at are Patrik Berglund and Martin Hanzal. Not saying Gauthier will be as good as either of them, but just in terms of usefulness to a team.

5 years ago this entire board was clambering for the Leafs to try and get either of them. They've both settled in as 30 point 3rd liners with the exact same build as Gauthier.

They never really built on their offensive game, but are still really valuable players on their respective teams. And both mid 1st round picks.

The vision for Gauthier was that if he developed a bit he could become a 50 point guy who was 6'4 and reliable in his own end. A very good 2nd line centre. Clearly his offensive game has lagged, but there's nothing saying he can't be a 25-30 point guy and be really damn good in a shutdown role. Getting a guy who can play in the NHL at any pick is a success.

How many were offering 1st. round picks for Berglund and Hanzal?

Maybe some were, but the way people here cherish 1st. round picks I doubt many were down for that.

http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

So, this is reasonably what we would expect. 80% of first-round picks, 44% of second-round picks, and 30% of third-round picks will become low-level (or better) NHL players. Scott Cullen has done great work looking at specific pick values.

 

[Joey Hoser]

But if Andreas Johnson makes it as a goal scorer - he'd hold more value then Gauthier I'd imagine?



That's fine - he's apart of the Leafs now, I want him to succeed! I might not have been a fan of the pick but it is what it is.

A 6'4-6'5 centre who can help the PK, and give us solid minutes every night is an asset for sure.

Kinda depends.

Is Gauthier just a replaceable fourth liner guy, or somebody who can actually be relied on to shutdown high-end players?

Is Johnson an offensive catalyst who can score 30 by himself? Or is he a 20 goal scorer if you put him in all the right situations?

I have a lot more confidence in Gauthier being an important player than Johnson, though that will be partly because I'm not as high on Johnson as many people seem to be.

 

[mikebel111*]

yep, I thought the pick made some sense based on his skillset + numbers. He just stagnated offensively unfortunately.

IMO this is nothing like the Biggs pick, which was terrible from the get go.

Yeah I agree. There is no comparison between Biggs and Gauthier aside from both being 1st rounders

 

[Stand Witness]

But if Andreas Johnson makes it as a goal scorer - he'd hold more value then Gauthier I'd imagine?



That's fine - he's apart of the Leafs now, I want him to succeed! I might not have been a fan of the pick but it is what it is.

A 6'4-6'5 centre who can help the PK, and give us solid minutes every night is an asset for sure.

Ya I would imagine if Andreas Johnson makes it he will be a more valuable player than Gauthier. Again nothing necessarily wrong with the Gauthier pick as the Leafs did expect him to becomes likely a #2 C which isn't a bad ceiling (I would argue that it wasn't the best expectation even when you get rid of hindsight).

I still think taking a player like Shinkurak is probably the better player to take. He without a doubt has the higher upside. I would mention others but I remember for a fact that there was debate on whether to take Shinkurak or Gauthier amongst Leaf fans.

 

[Stand Witness]

I wonder how much the U18 played into drafting Gauthier. I don't think he has ever really played such an offensive game since he has been Leafs property as he did here (pre-draft). From my understanding he never really looked like this kind of offensive player in the Q.

 

[Joey Hoser]

yep, I thought the pick made some sense based on his skillset + numbers. He just stagnated offensively unfortunately.

IMO this is nothing like the Biggs pick, which was terrible from the get go.

Let's also try to keep things in check and recognize that if Gauthier really did put up the type of numbers people seem to have expected and actually did have that high-end offensive talent, then combined with his size and defensive game, he would be an incredible prospect, easily among the best in the world. Way more than you could dream to get out of a 21st overall pick.