GDT: Preseason Game #6 - Edm @ Seattle 8PM MST - Streaming on Oilers +

[MessierII]

He was decent in the regular season but was awful in the playoffs.
Has the worst GA rates, the worst GF% rates. His advanced metrics were fine, quite sheltered though but he was constantly making glaring mistakes. At 27 I don’t really see him improving all that much. I think he is…fine as the #6 but with how awful his skating is and how he can’t puck handle for shit, he is a detriment to the team in the playoffs. You don’t have to be good at puck handling, just average…and he isn’t.

Definitely need to upgrade on him at the deadline.

One playoff run doesn’t make a career. A lot of guys had bad playoffs. Mcdavid had a bad playoff when not on the pp. Vinny and ekholm reshaping our D were the reason we were the hottest team going in. Vinny moved the needle big time 5 on 5 solidifying the bottom pair and on the PK he was arguably our single best D man. He wasn’t just decent in the regular he was exceptional in his role.

If woody does stick with this formation we should theoretically have a lot more puck support in our zone. He’ll only need to make a 5’ pass and he’ll be playing 13-14 minutes a night when the games get real not the 18 minutes he’s playing in pre season.

 

[rboomercat90]

View attachment 748453

Pretty sure I need medical attention.

 

[CycloneSweep]

One playoff run doesn’t make a career. A lot of guys had bad playoffs. Mcdavid had a bad playoff when not on the pp. Vinny and ekholm reshaping our D were the reason we were the hottest team going in. Vinny moved the needle big time 5 on 5 solidifying the bottom pair and on the PK he was arguably our single best D man. He wasn’t just decent in the regular he was exceptional in his role.

If woody does stick with this formation we should theoretically have a lot more puck support in our zone. He’ll only need to make a 5’ pass and he’ll be playing 13-14 minutes a night when the games get real not the 18 minutes he’s playing in pre season.

His game started good and slowly got worse into the playoffs and in the playoffs and has continued that in preseason.
Desharnais worked in the regular season when we could go 11-7 cause Woodcroft could cherry pick the easiest situations to put him in and put him on the Pk where he is good.

He is good PK defender whose 5v5 has had a steady decline. The new defensive scheme would actually hurt Desharnais the most as it’s much more about puck handing and making the good pass to your support to get it out.
Not saying he isn’t usable but we have to go 11-7 to make him usable which I think is bad on the team overall cause it just burns him out.
We ideally need a top 4 defender not a #6 and he is fine there till then.
I think it’s entirely likely he takes a massive step back from last year. Not rare for an old rookie to have a good short stretch and that be the only note of their career.

 

[CupofOil]

I don't understand how the knives have suddenly turned on him. Concur with everything you said.

Sadly it seems to be part of Oiler fan tradition to shit on a bottom of the lineup players because they're mad that management didn't find someone way better than them instead.

It's not shitting on a guy. It's a fanbase that wants better than a guy who struggled a lot in the playoffs last season.

Saying that Ceci sucked in the playoffs and fans wanting an upgrade on him because they want their team to win a Cup isn't shitting on him. It's seeing a clear weakness in the lineup that they want addressed.

Same goes for Vinny. Good regular season, liability in the playoffs. Personally, can't speak for others, I want him to succeed. He seems like a great guy real team guy and brings a skillset that the team needs but they can't afford to have an anchor on their defense come playoff time even if it's only on a bottom pairing and he was one of the reasons why they almost lost to L.A. Hopefully he proves the naysayers wrong including myself, I'd love nothing more.

 

[K1984]

It's not shitting on a guy. It's a fanbase that wants better than a guy who struggled a lot in the playoffs last season.

Saying that Ceci sucked in the playoffs and fans wanting an upgrade on him because they want their team to win a Cup isn't shitting on him. It's seeing a clear weakness in the lineup that they want addressed.

Same goes for Vinny. Good regular season, liability in the playoffs. Personally, can't speak for others, I want him to succeed. He seems like a great guy real team guy and brings a skillset that the team needs but they can't afford to have an anchor on their defense come playoff time even if it's only on a bottom pairing and he was one of the reasons why they almost lost to L.A. Hopefully he proves the naysayers wrong including myself, I'd love nothing more.

I get what you're saying, and I don't disagree in the big picture. It just seems like wasted breath at the moment and I can tell it's starting to dovetail into making him the new whipping boy, which isn't really fair IMO and counter productive.

Do I wish we had better players in both the 2nd and 3rd pairs on the right side? Yes

Is it very likely that we will upgrade this position at the deadline making this conversation redundant? Yes

Is Desharnais so bad that he is going to cost us a playoff spot? No, especially considering we went on a tear with him playing every game with a bigger and bigger role down the stretch last year.

Thankfully we are finally in a place where the deficiencies on the roster are all realistically fixable and none of them critical. Unlike past years where we would be truly doomed by these problems, now we get to live in a state where we just have to be patient and it's likely that we'll get what we need while still being in a stable standings position.

 

[FlameChampion]

One thing about VD is that last year when he came in, I think he was a much needed improvement on the PK. I think one of the reasons why he was needed was because we had both Barrie and Bouchard there. Barrie obviously wasnt great at PK and its not really Bouchards bread and butter either. But with Ekholm getting swapped with Barrie, I think it makes VD less needed. I think Broberg can be decent on the PK. It in any event, it will be interesting to see what happens with Broberg, VD and Gleason.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I've never even really noticed this as a feature of his game at all and I struggle to think of examples of him going overboard other than the pre-season thing that doesn't really matter (and people are allowed to blow up here and there, can be a good thing in the long run).

He struggled in the playoffs, bad penalties (mostly obstruction/stick) at times included, but I'm not sure where the "loose cannon" reputation is coming from. He only took three roughing penalties from January - April last year and one in the playoffs.

In game 1 LA series Desharnais was raging at the officials both after he took the penalty and then again coming out of box after the Kings scored on the PP. He went overboard, its not best advised to do that with officials and whether they should or not they take notes of players that are belligerent to them.

So thats its not just the penalties, or amount that Desharnais takes its that when he's heated he's raging and see's no line. I mean he's screaming at the official, skating too him, pointing his finger at him. It was a bit much.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I don’t know how Desharnais in the playoffs being on for 5 GF all strengths and then 12 GA is more for than against?

That was Yama's playoff stat line. Still, Desharnais was on ice for 4EVGF and 8EVGA. So certainly on for more GA as you allude.

 

[CycloneSweep]

That was Yama's playoff stat line. Still, Desharnais was on ice for 4EVGF and 8EVGA. So certainly on for more GA as you allude.

I was looking at every strength so including PK etc. but yeah, he was really shoddy defensively. And like I feel 6/7 of those goals against were almost specifically his fault or he made a major mistake on?

 

[Drivesaitl]

I was looking at every strength so including PK etc. but yeah, he was really shoddy defensively. And like I feel 6/7 of those goals against were almost specifically his fault or he made a major mistake on?

Yeah. The only D we had even close to as bad in playoffs was Ceci. Other than that Desharnais was in a class of his own bad, and being exploited.

That Yama playoff stat line though, wowsa, almost the worst I've ever seen. In 12 playoff games Yams managed to have 12EVGA. While only being on ice for 5EVGF. By miles the worst stats on the club in playoffs.

 

[MessierII]

His game started good and slowly got worse into the playoffs and in the playoffs and has continued that in preseason.

Really? Where are all these goals against in the pre season? Him and Gleason have been the two best D in camp in that regard.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Really? Where are all these goals against in the pre season? Him and Gleason have been the two best D in camp in that regard.

Campbell has been saving Desharnais bacon. His GA is fine but a quick look at the numbers the rest of his advanced stats are awful.

 

[MessierII]

Campbell has been saving Desharnais bacon. His GA is fine but a quick look at the numbers the rest of his advanced stats are awful.

I mean he’s played in 5 games most of any D man and mostly with scrub lineups. His chances for and what not look bad for sure which is expected with the forwards he’s been playing with but his chances against are still really good on a per game basis.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Campbell has been saving Desharnais bacon. His GA is fine but a quick look at the numbers the rest of his advanced stats are awful.

You should check his advanced stats in the playoffs, maybe skinner was making him look worse.

Second highest xGF% from D.

Or is the results the only thing that matter?

 

[bucks_oil]

I don’t know how Desharnais in the playoffs being on for 5 GF all strengths and then 12 GA is more for than against?

We're both wrong.

I got my data from reading an Athletic article, but on closer inspection it was 5v5 xGF% not 5v5 GF%.

Having said that, how can you not blush when trying to pass-off all strengths goals for vs against, for a guy that played 26 minutes on the PK and 37 seconds on the power play? That isn't arguing in good faith.

Third point... below are our 5v5 numbers for everyone on the team. Desharnais had a very positive xGF% and a poor GF%. That's the tyranny of small numbers at play and yeah, it matches the eye test, which, if you are being honest was:
1) the guy was generally very strong in his own end, he limited high-risk chances against (increasing xGF)
2) he got turnstiled badly and obviously a couple of times in the neutral zone, that stuck in everyone's memory because those led to (actual) goals against (decreasing GF%)

You take away those blatant blunders and you've got a guy who performed well, until he didn't, in his first NHL season, in his first playoffs. His blunders are fixable with experience.

And note for the record... we had very few positive performers at 5v5, including two of the best players in the world, but plenty of guys who's xGF was quite positive. I'm not a huge fan of xGF (I prefer ACTUAL results), but in short sample sizes, like 10-12 games it is useful, since a single actual goal skews the numbers so much.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

 

[CycloneSweep]

You should check his advanced stats in the playoffs, maybe skinner was making him look worse.

Second highest xGF% from D.

Or is the results the only thing that matter?

You know it’s more nuanced then that dont be daft.

We're both wrong.

I got my data from reading an Athletic article, but on closer inspection it was 5v5 xGF% not 5v5 GF%.

Having said that, how can you not blush when trying to pass-off all strengths goals for vs against, for a guy that played 26 minutes on the PK and 37 seconds on the power play? That isn't arguing in good faith.

Third point... below are our 5v5 numbers for everyone on the team. Desharnais had a very positive xGF% and a poor GF%. That's the tyranny of small numbers at play and yeah, it matches the eye test, which, if you are being honest was:
1) the guy was generally very strong in his own end, he limited high-risk chances against (increasing xGF)
2) he got turnstiled badly and obviously a couple of times in the neutral zone, that stuck in everyone's memory because those led to (actual) goals against (decreasing GF%)

You take away those blatant blunders and you've got a guy who performed well, until he didn't, in his first NHL season, in his first playoffs. His blunders are fixable with experience.

And note for the record... we had very few positive performers at 5v5, including two of the best players in the world, but plenty of guys who's xGF was quite positive. I'm not a huge fan of xGF (I prefer ACTUAL results), but in short sample sizes, like 10-12 games it is useful, since a single actual goal skews the numbers so much.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

His blatant mistakes may be fixable for sure. However it could he a symptom of him being exposed. No way to really know without more of a sample size. If he was still young I’d have more optimism but he isn’t.

That said he is a fine #7 and a good penalty killer. Ideally you have a better guy as your 6D as he is limited in what he can do.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

You know it’s more nuanced then that dont be daft.


His blatant mistakes may be fixable for sure. However it could he a symptom of him being exposed. No way to really know without more of a sample size. If he was still young I’d have more optimism but he isn’t.

That said he is a fine #7 and a good penalty killer. Ideally you have a better guy as your 6D as he is limited in what he can do.

Is it more nuanced than that? Your whole argument is his advanced stats suck even though on ice results have been good this preseason

 

[bobbythebrain]

I get what you're saying, and I don't disagree in the big picture. It just seems like wasted breath at the moment and I can tell it's starting to dovetail into making him the new whipping boy, which isn't really fair IMO and counter productive.

Do I wish we had better players in both the 2nd and 3rd pairs on the right side? Yes

Is it very likely that we will upgrade this position at the deadline making this conversation redundant? Yes

Is Desharnais so bad that he is going to cost us a playoff spot? No, especially considering we went on a tear with him playing every game with a bigger and bigger role down the stretch last year.

Thankfully we are finally in a place where the deficiencies on the roster are all realistically fixable and none of them critical. Unlike past years where we would be truly doomed by these problems, now we get to live in a state where we just have to be patient and it's likely that we'll get what we need while still being in a stable standings position.

He was disappointing in OTT, he sucked in TO, and he played decent in Pit in a secondsry role.

What's unfair is that our brain trust decided to make him a top pair guy, especially when our #1 dman is NOT the type who can carry a partner, but needs to be baby sat

It's not whipping on Ceci to recognize his place on the roster is misused.

Also, have you watched him with the puck? It's infuriating and insulting to our eyes

 

[K1984]

He was disappointing in OTT, he sucked in TO, and he played decent in Pit in a secondsry role.

What's unfair is that our brain trust decided to make him a top pair guy, especially when our #1 dman is NOT the type who can carry a partner, but needs to be baby sat

It's not whipping on Ceci to recognize his place on the roster is misused.

Also, have you watched him with the puck? It's infuriating and insulting to our eyes

Didn't mention Ceci by name even once, but ok.

Did reference that we need to upgrade the right side, so think that covers it. If we get a top 4 RHD that pushes Desharnais out of the lineup and Ceci to the 3rd pair we are in very good shape. Which is very achievable and quite likely to happen. Also quite likely that it won't impact our standings position much until that move is made so we don't really need to panic about it now.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Is it more nuanced than that? Your whole argument is his advanced stats suck even though on ice results have been good this preseason

But it’s not but it’s like you to latch onto single words in entire posts.

 

[foshizzle]

Where did you hear that about Brad?

Stauffer during the last game while doing his colour.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

But it’s not but it’s like you to latch onto single words in entire posts.

I’m latching onto your whole argument and lack of consistency.

You’re also judging a players total Gf/Ga when he plays zero powerplay time, but decent PK time, that’s a disingenuous argument.

 

[bucks_oil]

You know it’s more nuanced then that dont be daft.


His blatant mistakes may be fixable for sure. However it could he a symptom of him being exposed. No way to really know without more of a sample size. If he was still young I’d have more optimism but he isn’t.

That said he is a fine #7 and a good penalty killer. Ideally you have a better guy as your 6D as he is limited in what he can do.

I don't disagree with any of that. I was cringing when he was on the ice at times... but to me (and you may be saying the same thing) part of that was poor utilization. If the guy is an exceptional crease clearer, cycle breaker and PKer... and I really do mean he's exceptionally good at those things... then why the F does Woody need to have him out there getting exposed on the rush?

Have him get the puck out and skate to the bench, Broberg can handle the track meet shifts.

And again, having said all of that... I think he can be a valuable contributor to a contender. Yes, even as high as an 'elite role player' #6. You want your top four to play 80% of your 5v5 anyway.

His chronological age to me is irrelevant. This is a guy with nearly ZERO offense and below average skating who has managed to be a phenomenal outscorer at every level he's played, including his first 36 games at the NHL level. You don't do that unless you are a very heady defender who plays smart hockey within the limits of their physical skills.

You've gotta give him the benefit of the doubt/experience at the NHL level.

 

[bucks_oil]

Didn't mention Ceci by name even once, but ok.

Did reference that we need to upgrade the right side, so think that covers it. If we get a top 4 RHD that pushes Desharnais out of the lineup and Ceci to the 3rd pair we are in very good shape. Which is very achievable and quite likely to happen. Also quite likely that it won't impact our standings position much until that move is made so we don't really need to panic about it now.

On what earth are we going to afford a better RD than Ceci and still have Ceci at $3.3M in the lineup?

Where are you guys coming up with the money? We have $<300K in cap space.

At the deadline, if we don't run into short term injuries, we'll have ~$1.2M... if we run into short term injuries we may have nothing.

In my opinion, the only play we had that could get us a better-than-Ceci RD was to trade another one of our ~$3M guys NOW and bank the coin for the deadline. That most likely meant icing three of Desharnais, Broberg, Neimelainen, Lavoie, Erne, Gagner, etc in the lineup every night.

The ONLY way to upgrade our middle pairing or 3C is to have our entire bottom pairing/4th line (and half of the third line) making $1M or less so that we can concentrate cap space up higher in the lineup. That means more of the Desharnais' of the world, not less.

 

[McDNicks17]

Good. It should be merit based and Gleason has been way better. Interesting he was a guy Brad Holland targeted as part of his pro scouting of the AHL

I wouldn't be surprised if there was some input from Staios as well.

He traded for Gleason in the OHL and had him play three seasons for him there.