Seravalli: Predators’ Mattias Ekholm “Available”

biturbo19

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Jul 13, 2010
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This is the defenseman move that makes sense to me from nashville.

Josi - NMC
McDonagh - NTC
Lauzon/Carrier/Fabbro - young and cheaper. Not as good defensively but trading these players is counterproductive to the long term health of the team.
Ekholm - still very good but 33 at start of next season and would open up alot of capspace. McDonagh slides back down to 2nd pairing or lauzon up to 2nd pairing (though thats not exactly the best option).

Yeah. Quite frankly, if you want to reshape that team, and that blueline...Ekholm is the one that makes sense to move.

You don't move on from Josi, he's a superstar. You aren't going to get anything for McDonagh even if you could move him. So despite some of the involved players being capable of playing either side...there's basically your 1-2 LHD that you're locked into and can't really change. The younger/cheaper guys, and RHD are important to keep.

Ekholm is the guy who would fetch a bigtime return in trade.



It's interesting though, in light of the way they dumped Ellis in a similar fashion, and that hasn't gone well for the team that "bought" in to that. How many times can you sign a defenceman to a contract that is regrettable in length at a high dollar number...and still turn around to deal them away to someone to get out from under it before it becomes a complete albatross?
 
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herzausstein

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Ok. Keep him
I think most Nashville fans will gladly keep ekholm

Yeah. Quite frankly, if you want to reshape that team, and that blueline...Ekholm is the one that makes sense to move.

You don't move on from Josi, he's a superstar. You aren't going to get anything for McDonagh even if you could move him. So despite some of the involved players being capable of playing either side...there's basically your 1-2 LHD that you're locked into and can't really change. The younger/cheaper guys, and RHD are important to keep.

Ekholm is the guy who would fetch a bigtime return in trade.



It's interesting though, in light of the way they dumped Ellis in a similar fashion, and that hasn't gone well for the team that "bought" in to that. How many times can you sign a defenceman to a contract that is regrettable in length at a high dollar number...and still turn around to deal them away to someone to get out from under it before it becomes a complete albatross?
Ellis had a much worse injury record though. Ekholm has missed like 17 games total over 7 seasons.
 

biturbo19

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Ellis had a much worse injury record though. Ekholm has missed like 17 games total over 7 seasons.

Yeah. That's fair. It's just kind of an interesting factor. I don't think Ekholm will just drop off a cliff like Ellis...but it's something to think about. It was sort of the same with Weber to an extent as well. And subsequently unloading Subban when that turned out to be a longer-term liability as well. Just something about the way Poile operates...
 

herzausstein

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Yeah. That's fair. It's just kind of an interesting factor. I don't think Ekholm will just drop off a cliff like Ellis...but it's something to think about. It was sort of the same with Weber to an extent as well. And subsequently unloading Subban when that turned out to be a longer-term liability as well. Just something about the way Poile operates...
Subban's injury history was well known before the trades and he was very noticeably slowing down before the trades. I feel like teams involved there knew what they were getting. Ellis is a curious case to me. He had an injury history but the core body injury thats had him out for over a season now is a mystery to me.
 
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biturbo19

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Subban's injury history was well known before the trades and he was very noticeably slowing down before the trades. I feel like teams involved there knew what they were getting. Ellis is a curious case to me. He had an injury history but the core body injury thats had him out for over a season now is a mystery to me.

Ekholm is definitely outside the normal parameters, and i do think every one of those teams more or less went in aware of caveat emptor. Around things that aren't necessarily consistent with Ekholm. But his age and contract fit the profile, and he doesn't have the injury history...but you can see the beginnings of the decline for him already. Who knows how sharp that curve will be. I wouldn't think it's steep, but you never know, and at 32/33 the contract is guaranteed to take him beyond the point where he starts to really fall off.


It also made taking on McDonagh a kind of weird decision that doesn't fit the pattern. Unless Poile for some reason believes that Mcdonagh is going to age more gracefully than Ekholm...or at least similarly. At which point, Ekholm does make sense to move, because he hasn't hit that point where wariness is really setting in on his durability and longevity...yet.


Even with the Ellis thing, it was understood by everyone that the contract was a potential long-term liability, and that he'd come with some injury history baggage. The price paid reflected that. But again...whatever appears to be potentially ending his career, was an injury presumably sustained after the trade.


Just wouldn't want to be on the receiving end of one of those Poile contract dumps, getting out before it all falls apart. Especially at the sort of prices people are throwing around for Ekholm.
 

Faceboner

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Things working against ekholm's value are age, cap hit and contract length this already hinders the amount of teams who would trade for him and he is not gonna get the chych package if he is traded
 

Porter Stoutheart

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Subban's injury history was well known before the trades and he was very noticeably slowing down before the trades. I feel like teams involved there knew what they were getting. Ellis is a curious case to me. He had an injury history but the core body injury thats had him out for over a season now is a mystery to me.
Yes, there was some suggestion that Subban's injury issue was started by some awkward collision he had in Montreal even before we got him. But that he was able to manage it and still play great for us for 2 years anyway before it got worse and he started losing the battle. Perhaps New Jersey thought they'd be able to get him back to managing it a little better again, but clearly that didn't happen. Whereas Ellis apparently suffered his right off the bat in Philly, unrelated to any of his past injuries with the Preds. In his case, we sort of always just expected some injury from him because he hasn't been very durable over the years in general, so the contract was considered a risk in general, but not because of a specific known condition like Subban.

Anyway, there is nothing like that going on with Ekholm. He's slightly off where he was 4 or 5 years ago when he edged into 10th in Norris voting, but that's kind of a normal progression for anybody comparing a "career year" to a more typical year, or when comparing what they can do at 32 vs. 28 yo. Otherwise he looks totally fine and still a top-2 D on most teams. I am not expecting any sudden cliffs with him up to age 35. In fact, it wouldn't shock me if we could "Chara" him for a few years at a nice hometown discount after this contract expires.
 

SupremeTeam16

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Things working against ekholm's value are age, cap hit and contract length this already hinders the amount of teams who would trade for him and he is not gonna get the chych package if he is traded
I think the biggest issue is that the league wide cap crunch is suppressing player values by locking down the buyers market. Teams just don’t have the cap space and the cost to create cap space inevitably drags down what teams are willing to offer for the actual player.


They would be smart to leave this until the off-season when teams have a little more flexibility to make moves. I think Bettman is playing coy with revenue projections and there’s a good chance the cap moves up more then the number they’ve already given or the league and PA come to an agreement to push it up 2-3M for next year.
 
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SoundAndFury

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Sorry but Nashville fans have no idea where their team is heading if they don't want to trade Ekholm for 1st, 2nd and a roster player. I guess enjoy the "we need this 33 yo guy to definitely maybe make the playoffs" purgatory like the old Flames.
 

triggrman

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Sorry but Nashville fans have no idea where their team is heading if they don't want to trade Ekholm for 1st, 2nd and a roster player. I guess enjoy the "we need this 33 yo guy to definitely maybe make the playoffs" purgatory like the old Flames.
You know we have no control on the team right?


We enjoy watching Ekholm play, so we like keeping the guys we like watch play. Also, he showed loyalty to the team, so we'd like for the team to be loyal to him beyond one year.
 

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