Pre-season Games

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Where was this line of thinking when the Red Wings passed on Chychrun and took Cholo and Hronek? Two players with vastly higher ceilings?

I don't understand the comparison. I think Chychrun has a high ceiling too. That's why everybody wanted him in the first place. Being ranked first overall for like 2 years did suggest he had a pretty high ceiling, after all.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

One thing about his game is most of his goals won't be played at the end of the week on the "highlight goal of the week" show. But who really cares? They all count the same.

We do.

-People who watch hockey for the entertainment value

 

[Claypool]

I don't understand the comparison. I think Chychrun has a high ceiling too. That's why everybody wanted him in the first place. Being ranked first overall for like 2 years did suggest he had a pretty high ceiling, after all.

A player that's NHL ready with a high ceiling doesn't go 16th overall in his draft year.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

A player that's NHL ready with a high ceiling doesn't go 16th overall in his draft year.

You can surmise so, but it doesn't make it gospel truth.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

We do.

-People who watch hockey for the entertainment value

Do you want a team that is fun to watch or a team that wins? Because you are talking about two very different motivations in team building.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

You can surmise so, but it doesn't make it gospel truth.

Neither does assuming that because a guy is NHL ready sooner than another player automatically makes it gospel that he's got a far lower ceiling.

I mean, not a comparison in talent... but Connor McDavid was NHL ready from the word go... does that mean that he didn't have the highest ceiling of the guys in his draft class?

Holding the fact that Rasmussen is more NHL ready than a guy like Vilardi as a crack against him is ridiculous. He's a completely different type of player. And one that the Red Wings DESPERATELY have needed. They've in recent years thrown Sheahan, Abby, Mantha, whoever who has the slightest bit of size in front of the net to do the yeoman work like Homer used to do. Sheahan is best when he can control the puck and use his heavy wrister. Mantha needs to be away from the net with the puck on his stick because he's a sniper. Abby truly is more of a Maltby type mucker than an honest to goodness net front presence. They needed a guy with some skill who actually has the hand eye coordination to effectively screen the goalie and tip the puck.

 

[Dotter]

Where was this line of thinking when the Red Wings passed on Chychrun and took Cholo and Hronek? Two players with vastly higher ceilings?

Well said and well played. Love it!

 

[Dotter]

Neither does assuming that because a guy is NHL ready sooner than another player automatically makes it gospel that he's got a far lower ceiling.

I mean, not a comparison in talent... but Connor McDavid was NHL ready from the word go... does that mean that he didn't have the highest ceiling of the guys in his draft class?

Holding the fact that Rasmussen is more NHL ready than a guy like Vilardi as a crack against him is ridiculous. He's a completely different type of player. And one that the Red Wings DESPERATELY have needed. They've in recent years thrown Sheahan, Abby, Mantha, whoever who has the slightest bit of size in front of the net to do the yeoman work like Homer used to do. Sheahan is best when he can control the puck and use his heavy wrister. Mantha needs to be away from the net with the puck on his stick because he's a sniper. Abby truly is more of a Maltby type mucker than an honest to goodness net front presence. They needed a guy with some skill who actually has the hand eye coordination to effectively screen the goalie and tip the puck.

I think some people hate the pick so bad down to their deepest inner core that nothing a player does will ever change their minds; and they hope the player flops so they don't look bad.

That said, I don't think this is the pick that will give them their 'glory' they desperately long for to brag they were right all along while KH and co. are complete idiots.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Neither does assuming that because a guy is NHL ready sooner than another player automatically makes it gospel that he's got a far lower ceiling.

I mean, not a comparison in talent... but Connor McDavid was NHL ready from the word go... does that mean that he didn't have the highest ceiling of the guys in his draft class?

Holding the fact that Rasmussen is more NHL ready than a guy like Vilardi as a crack against him is ridiculous. He's a completely different type of player. And one that the Red Wings DESPERATELY have needed. They've in recent years thrown Sheahan, Abby, Mantha, whoever who has the slightest bit of size in front of the net to do the yeoman work like Homer used to do. Sheahan is best when he can control the puck and use his heavy wrister. Mantha needs to be away from the net with the puck on his stick because he's a sniper. Abby truly is more of a Maltby type mucker than an honest to goodness net front presence. They needed a guy with some skill who actually has the hand eye coordination to effectively screen the goalie and tip the puck.

I think you're misunderstanding me. I'm not arguing that because Rasmussen is more ready, his ceiling is lower. (I actually just argued against that line of reasoning one page back, so I'm not sure where you got this idea from.) I'm arguing that because Rasmussen is less skilled, his ceiling is lower. Puck skills are king, and this kid has very little in that regard.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Do you want a team that is fun to watch or a team that wins? Because you are talking about two very different motivations in team building.

I don't think I am. There are lots of teams in the league with exciting offensive players, and their teams do just fine. Detroit is just not one of those teams anymore, and they actually fail on both accounts now. And they're the only team that drafted for size instead of skill this year, so that's fun.

 

[Frk It]

A player that's NHL ready with a high ceiling doesn't go 16th overall in his draft year.

Right... ranked top 5 your entire draft season = no ceiling

 

[Frk It]

Neither does assuming that because a guy is NHL ready sooner than another player automatically makes it gospel that he's got a far lower ceiling.

I mean, not a comparison in talent... but Connor McDavid was NHL ready from the word go... does that mean that he didn't have the highest ceiling of the guys in his draft class?

Holding the fact that Rasmussen is more NHL ready than a guy like Vilardi as a crack against him is ridiculous. He's a completely different type of player. And one that the Red Wings DESPERATELY have needed. They've in recent years thrown Sheahan, Abby, Mantha, whoever who has the slightest bit of size in front of the net to do the yeoman work like Homer used to do. Sheahan is best when he can control the puck and use his heavy wrister. Mantha needs to be away from the net with the puck on his stick because he's a sniper. Abby truly is more of a Maltby type mucker than an honest to goodness net front presence. They needed a guy with some skill who actually has the hand eye coordination to effectively screen the goalie and tip the puck.

We need a quality playmaker and puck possession player 100x more than we need a quality net front player.

 

[WesNichols14]

I clearly remember the big issue with chyhrun around the time of the draft being he had a high floor low ceiling. Guaranteed NHL guy, but not going to be elite.

 

[Syckle78]

Where was this line of thinking when the Red Wings passed on Chychrun and took Cholo and Hronek? Two players with vastly higher ceilings?

Nobody thought cholo had a higher ceiling and nobody knew shit about hronek. So I'd guess the line of thinking was missing for a reason.

 

[Frk It]

I clearly remember the big issue with chyhrun around the time of the draft being he had a high floor low ceiling. Guaranteed NHL guy, but not going to be elite.

Show me the source.

What happened was all of the fans of the teams who didn’t pick him said “there’s a reason teams passed on him”, and then *assumed* that reason was his ceiling.

That’s more or less all that happened there.

 

[Red Stanley]

You're all over the place on this one. It comes across like you'll say anything to be able to declare this one a win. Rasmussen being pro-ready says very little about how good this pick is. Vilardi being hurt right now (and probably not pro-ready) says very little about how good that pick is. And Cody Glass, Pettersson, Necas, etc.

Players being NHL-ready sooner isn't a good criterion for how good a player is. That actually cuts against Rasmussen more than it helps him, because it's highly likely he's a high floor, low ceiling type player. He's big, strong, and doesn't have to be skilled with the puck to be effective (which is good, because he's not). But is he going to become skilled? I guess we'll see. The other guys are skilled and have yet to become big and strong. I know which one I'd prefer, but Rasmussen is the guy we've got. There's nothing else to do. But I have no idea how you're declaring that a win for Rasmussen over the other prospects. He's doing the only thing he can do: he's showing he has a high floor.

And I still think Ras is way worse than Necas.

So someone (or Rasmussen in particular) being farther ahead in their development is worse off than another who isn't because the attributes they've developed already stop counting toward a higher ceiling, but instead somehow lower his ceiling? You'd have to provide your definition of puck skill, because from what I saw he has plenty of high-value skills with the puck.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

We need a quality playmaker and puck possession player 100x more than we need a quality net front player.

On one hand, I agree. A net front guy is a lesser requirement.

However, I really think that by getting a guy like Rasmussen who can take that role and look to be defensively responsible as well, you let Mantha, Svech, and others develop into the playmakers and the guys who go get the puck and hang onto the puck. You're no longer tempted to waste a Mantha on net front duties because he's 6'5", you're able to let him roam around and do more of what he did in juniors offensively when he filled the score sheet up like crazy.

I'm not saying that the Wings necessarily did right by drafting Rasmussen over the other choices, but it isn't some "holy crap, they made a huge, obvious mistake, either"

 

[Red Stanley]

We need a quality playmaker and puck possession player 100x more than we need a quality net front player.

I'd say we need both equally badly. An effective power forward with good net front presence, a good playmaker and a good top defensive pairing. Those are our three biggest needs and they're all equally important.

 

[Frk It]

On one hand, I agree. A net front guy is a lesser requirement.

However, I really think that by getting a guy like Rasmussen who can take that role and look to be defensively responsible as well, you let Mantha, Svech, and others develop into the playmakers and the guys who go get the puck and hang onto the puck. You're no longer tempted to waste a Mantha on net front duties because he's 6'5", you're able to let him roam around and do more of what he did in juniors offensively when he filled the score sheet up like crazy.

I'm not saying that the Wings necessarily did right by drafting Rasmussen over the other choices, but it isn't some "holy crap, they made a huge, obvious mistake, either"

I just don’t know who people think is going to get the puck in the zone and feed these wingers.

Zetterberg is on borrowed time. Larkin has looked like anything but a setup guy so far.

The puck posesssion players (Dats and Z) were the engine to this team the last 10 years. Having Franzen or Holmstrom without those guys is cool, but it’s secondary.

I’m not saying there was a Dats or Z level guy we could have drafted... but we need to start stockpiling skilled playmakers (preferably centers) with puck skills real soon here or we will have wingers and no one getting them the puck. I mean the last Center we drafted in the first 2 rounds that was considered to be a playmaker and have plus puck skills was who... Calle Jarnkrok? What was that... 7 years ago?

Mantha can pass the puck well and sees the ice well. Not sure there’s that many other guys who are exceptional in that area. Nyquist can be when he has time/space. Svech is good there in the AHL, but he still seems a little rough, and it’s hard to know what we have there at the pro level.

 

[WesNichols14]

Show me the source.

What happened was all of the fans of the teams who didn’t pick him said “there’s a reason teams passed on him”, and then *assumed* that reason was his ceiling.

That’s more or less all that happened there.

It took 2 seconds to find an article that inferred he potentially had a low ceiling.
But I was more referring to the people around here.

"TSN surveyed ten scouts toward the end of April in order to put together the Draft Lottery Edition of their Top 15 Rankings. Of those ten, one scout had Chychrun ranked in the top four, and four scouts had him in the top ten . . . but six scouts actually had Chychrun ranked 11th or lower. For someone who started the year as the consensus best defender available in the draft, seeing him fall out of the top ten in the eyes of that many scouts is . . . interesting, to say the least. This could be a case of a kid who is closer to hitting his ceiling than everyone else"

https://sabrenoise.com/2016/05/18/buffalo-sabres-draft-options-jakob-chychrun/

 

[Shaman464]

Some things:

Ras is totally a top 15 pick. He could also be top 10 players from this draft when things shake out.

That being said there are definite issues with the Wings picking him. First and foremost is that the Wings are loaded with big players who project to play wing, and I have a feeling when its all said and done he converts to wing. Second, he's not been the guy at the levels he's played at to carry play. The Wings need play makers centers worse than anything right now. Third, this was a draft that they could have taken a risk and it wouldn't be unforgivable, why? Because it was a shallow draft and there were a lot of high ceiling moderate to high risk guys. This pick is the type of pick that is made when a GM believes the year was a one off bad year and wants someone who is a lock for the NHL. It is not a pick a team with a long rebuild ahead would make.

 

[Shaman464]

It took 2 seconds to find an article that inferred he potentially had a low ceiling.
But I was more referring to the people around here.

"TSN surveyed ten scouts toward the end of April in order to put together the Draft Lottery Edition of their Top 15 Rankings. Of those ten, one scout had Chychrun ranked in the top four, and four scouts had him in the top ten . . . but six scouts actually had Chychrun ranked 11th or lower. For someone who started the year as the consensus best defender available in the draft, seeing him fall out of the top ten in the eyes of that many scouts is . . . interesting, to say the least. This could be a case of a kid who is closer to hitting his ceiling than everyone else"

https://sabrenoise.com/2016/05/18/buffalo-sabres-draft-options-jakob-chychrun/

The problem with that quote is that even in context it doesn't really support your argument. Hes a guy who came in scored on a pace for about 25 points, with very little PP time. That's a lot closer to the ceiling of a 40+ point top pairing D-man than Cholo is bouncing between the CHL and NCAA.

 

[Frk It]

It took 2 seconds to find an article that inferred he potentially had a low ceiling.
But I was more referring to the people around here.

"TSN surveyed ten scouts toward the end of April in order to put together the Draft Lottery Edition of their Top 15 Rankings. Of those ten, one scout had Chychrun ranked in the top four, and four scouts had him in the top ten . . . but six scouts actually had Chychrun ranked 11th or lower. For someone who started the year as the consensus best defender available in the draft, seeing him fall out of the top ten in the eyes of that many scouts is . . . interesting, to say the least. This could be a case of a kid who is closer to hitting his ceiling than everyone else"

https://sabrenoise.com/2016/05/18/buffalo-sabres-draft-options-jakob-chychrun/

Thank you for this.

The problem with that quote is that even in context it doesn't really support your argument. Hes a guy who came in scored on a pace for about 25 points, with very little PP time. That's a lot closer to the ceiling of a 40+ point top pairing D-man than Cholo is bouncing between the CHL and NCAA.

He’s going to miss a lot of important development time this year with his injury from over-training.

Cholo is trending in the right direction, at least. Really hope he puts up numbers in the WHL.

 

[Claypool]

Show me the source.

What happened was all of the fans of the teams who didn’t pick him said “there’s a reason teams passed on him”, and then *assumed* that reason was his ceiling.

That’s more or less all that happened there.

If it wasn't his low ceiling then what was it? He was the most NHL-ready defenseman at the draft. Why would teams pass on an NHL-ready player with high upside? He didn't even make Team Canada's Junior team in his draft year and was the fifth defenseman taken.

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-draft-jakob-chychrun-vs-olli-juolevi/c-280969652

"Chychrun is going to show up at someone's training camp in September and they're going to go, 'Whoa, he might be playing here this year.' But five years from now, Juolevi could be the better player. I can understand why, depending on the team making the pick, you can make a case why you would take either one. I think with Chychrun it's what-you-see-is-what-you-get, and I just think you have to look long term in this instance. I think a few years from now when Juolevi gets stronger and fills out, he'll be a better player."

"There's more of a complete package with Juolevi. He's going to be a guy that's able to defend, put up a ton of points and be the top-scoring defenseman on his team for many years. I can see Chychrun becoming more of a two-way guy but not have the offense that Juolevi has."

 

[Frk It]

If it wasn't his low ceiling then what was it? He was the most NHL-ready defenseman at the draft. Why would teams pass on an NHL-ready player with high upside? He didn't even make Team Canada's Junior team in his draft year and was the fifth defenseman taken.

There’s 100 reasons teams pass on players. All teams have different needs and value certain things. May not like how they interview. Literally could be all kinds of stuff.

Why did teams pass on Ryan Getzlaf and Cam Fowler despite them being ranked high? I’m sure they had their reasons. Doesn’t make it right.