Poll: Brock Boeser Will Have The Best Rookie Season Since... (A: Dixon Ward)

[DL44]

oh oops, that should be points, not goals. after the injury, daniel’s pace literally decreased by one half.

Unless he's predicting an injury to hinder his production ala Daniel, predicting a drop from PPG to around 0.40 PPG is pretty drastic.

We all expect him to hit a proverbial wall as a lot of college players do and we expect more top pairing/shutdown line attention.. but just 25pts over his final 60 seems bold. (if that what he's predicting... maybe he's predicting 25 pts over 30gms + 30 gms of injury)

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Unless he's predicting an injury to hinder his production ala Daniel, predicting a drop from PPG to around 0.40 PPG is pretty drastic.

We all expect him to hit a proverbial wall as a lot of college players do and we expect more top pairing/shutdown line attention.. but just 25pts over his final 60 seems bold. (if that what he's predicting... maybe he's predicting 25 pts over 30gms + 30 gms of injury)

like i said, i wasn't comparing the two players or suggesting that what what happened to daniel will also happen to brock. i was more just reminiscing...

but with daniel, i don't think it was solely his injury, or even primarily. he hit a wall, like a lot of young players do. part of it was the league figuring out his and henrik's game and almost completely neutralizing them, part of it was him losing confidence because his coach publicly called him out, and part of it was the grind. daniel wouldn't score at the rate he did in his first two months again until the fall of 2003, his fourth year in the league. hell after october/november 2000, he wouldn't even score more than 10 points over two months again until february/march of 2003. man did those guys ever look like stiffs.

 

[2011 still hurts]

Already passed Stetcher, Horvat in points and just passed Hodgson in goals.

3 points behind Hodgy and 4 behind Daniel rn

 

[Captain Bowie]

Already passed Stetcher, Horvat in points and just passed Hodgson in goals.

3 points behind Hodgy and 4 behind Daniel rn

And it's not even Christmas yet.

Updated projections:

Currently 17-13-30

Projected 45-34-79

 

[Captain Bowie]

Brock will only need 31 points the rest of the way to pass Bure & Hlinka's 60-points seasons. 18 more goals to pass Bure's 34.

So pretty much he produces the same number of goals and points over the last 49 games as he did in the first 30 games and he will have statistically the best Canucks rookie season ever.

 

[2011 still hurts]

Brock will only need 31 points the rest of the way to pass Bure & Hlinka's 60-points seasons. 18 more goals to pass Bure's 34.

So pretty much he produces the same number of goals and points over the last 49 games as he did in the first 30 games and he will have statistically the best Canucks rookie season ever.

I honestly think at the very least he hits 30 goals and 50 points (as long he plays the rest of the season). What a f***ing player.

 

[Cancuks]

I hope he can get 40 goals but I'm expecting a drop off after the all star break (which he better be attending). He's never played more than 57 regular season games but he's young maybe he can handle it.

 

[Verviticus]

He's riding a 19.1 shooting %, a 12.5 oiSH%, and a 102.7 PDO.

He's a very good young player and will be an above-average shooter (he might be able to sustain something as high as 14-15%) but it's extremely unlikely that what he's doing is sustainable and he'll end up with 80+ points.

I suspect we'll see 40-45 points in his last 60 games and he'll take a good run at the franchise rookie scoring record and has a good chance of breaking it, but I doubt it will be a runaway with that record as it looks like it could be now.

are these numbers total, or 5 on 5?

 

[Wo Yorfat]

Brock will only need 31 points the rest of the way to pass Bure & Hlinka's 60-points seasons. 18 more goals to pass Bure's 34.

So pretty much he produces the same number of goals and points over the last 49 games as he did in the first 30 games and he will have statistically the best Canucks rookie season ever.

As super impressive as his numbers are, I'm a bit more surprised by his overall game/ability. There's no feeling at all that we're getting Petr Prucha'd here (no offense to PP, just saying this isn't a mirage). I know MS added some helpful context and yeah Brock's had a little extra luck/mojo, but his impact as a player doesn't seem all that unsustainable to me. Guy is already the guy I was hoping he would be in 2020.

 

[RandV]

I hope he can get 40 goals but I'm expecting a drop off after the all star break (which he better be attending). He's never played more than 57 regular season games but he's young maybe he can handle it.

With regards to the all-star team Canucks aren't relevent enough anymore to send more than 1 player and they're not just going to send 1 Sedin, so depending on who's healthy it will be down to Horvat or Boeser with Boeser probably having the edge.

Speaking of all star selection and Horvat vs Boeser just reminds me how funny the salt was from some other teams fans when we sent Horvat last year.

 

[HSD19]

Voted Boeser but I think it's hard to compare considering Bure put 34 in the clutch and grab era.

 

[Wo Yorfat]

Voted Boeser but I think it's hard to compare considering Bure put 34 in the clutch and grab era.

The NHL was much higher scoring in Bure's rookie yr than it is now sir.

 

[Cancuks]

The NHL was much higher scoring in Bure's rookie yr than it is now sir.

Brett Hull had 70 goals that year. Back when hockey was good, entertaining, and there was tons of fighting and hitting.

 

[tantalum]

His shooting percentage is high but he also has not only one the hardest shots in the league but his accuracy is amazing. And he has the patience and smarts to go with it. Look at his goal last night. He knows he has time and waits for Jones to slide over a bit too far then places his shot.

I expect he will be like Stamkos with a shooting percentage that exceeds most by several percent.

 

[Grub]

You look at all his goals... and it's clear it's not a fluke... this guy has one of the most dangerous shots in the league.. It can only go up from here as I believe Boeser will only get faster and more accurate. To be honest I think his speed has improved slightly.

 

[CanaFan]

The NHL was much higher scoring in Bure's rookie yr than it is now sir.

Both are correct. The league was more lenient on hooking and holding back then but goaltending hadn’t yet made the strides that it would 5-10 years later. The net effect is that I would consider Boeser scoring 34 goals more “impressive” than Bure scoring 34 goals, esp if Boeser managed it in a similar number of games (65) as Bure.

 

[Josepho]

Stamkos' career SH% is 16.3. Boeser definitely could hover in that 15-17 range but he's not staying at 20 and no player in this era has proven to consistently be there. McCann's another player who had a great start for us and regressed significantly later on. Obviously Boeser's better, but McCann's another example of a player with a fantastic shot who still regressed.

But I agree that he should not be compared to a normal player here, his shot and positioning abilities are fantastic -- this isn't like when Ronalds Kenins was scoring all those wristers on the wing.

 

[Duckhugs]

Stamkos' career SH% is 16.3. Boeser definitely could hover in that 15-17 range but he's not staying at 20 and no player in this era has proven to consistently be there. McCann's another player who had a great start for us and regressed significantly later on. Obviously, Boeser's better, but McCann's another example of a player with a fantastic shot who still regressed.

But I agree that he should not be compared to a normal player here, his shot and positioning abilities are fantastic -- this isn't like when Ronalds Kenins was scoring all those wristers on the wing.

Now that's a name I haven't heard in a while

 

[CherryToke]

He could easily have more assists too if the team had better finishers. His ability to make the right decisions between pass/shoot is top notch (minus the empty net pass to Tanev).

 

[NoShowWilly]

what is the earliest we've had someone hit 20 goals in the last few years?

 

[Zombotron]

what is the earliest we've had someone hit 20 goals in the last few years?

Radim Vrbata on February 5th / Game #50?

 

[Zombotron]

No, nevermind. Daniel Sedin on January 21st / Game #48.



And before that it was Ryan Kesler on February 8th / Game #60.



In 2011-12, Daniel scored his 20th goal on January 17th / Game #47. This is now out of the realm of "recent memory."



In 2010-11, Daniel scored his 20th goal on Decmber 31st / Game #36...



...and Ryan Kesler scored his 20th goal on January 5th / Game #39.

 

[Zombotron]

So Brock's got over a month (as well as 15 games) to b(o)est the highest mark in recent memory, and has an outside chance at tying or even eclipsing the 20-goal paces that both Daniel Sedin** and Ryan Kesler set in 2010-11. What is "scoring goals?" This is a foreign concept to me.

**Boeser is in tight here - he must score 3 goals in the Canucks' next 3 games to tie this mark - 20 goals by the team's 36th game of the season

 

[Zombotron]

So yeah. through ~30 games, Brock Boeser has almost as much goal-scoring muster as 2011 Daniel Sedin. At the 33-game mark of the 2010-11 season (the mark the 2017-18 Canucks are at today), Daniel and Kesler had 18 and 17 goals on the season, respectively.

 

[2011 still hurts]

crazy to think it was only 6 years ago that we had both Daniel Sedin and Ryan Kesler break the 40 goal mark (each ended with 41) in the same season

seems like centuries ago god damn