Poll #1: Which D from the 2012 draft class would you take going forward?

[North Cole]

it's hard to justify voting for Parayko when he's behind Pietrangelo (not his fault)

whilst Gostisbehere is the top dog in Philly

I would think provo is the top dog, ghost just gets fed multitudes more pp time, and less overall toi

 

[Ainec]

I would think provo is the top dog, ghost just gets fed multitudes more pp time, and less overall toi

this is why I feel Gostisbehere is underrated and Provorov is overrated

Ghost has produced 20 points above Provorov. At some point an offensive gap that large should be acknowledged. And he is getting nearly the same quality of ice-time

 

[Dbrownss]

5v5 TOI%QoC:

Lindholm - 29.14
Parayko - 29.04
Ghost - 28.93

How do you have Lindholm's QoC as B+, Parayko's as a B? Parayko is closer to Lindholm than Ghost, yet by your arbitrary cut off he is downgraded...despite the fact that Parayko's and Lindholm's other stats are almost identical you choose to separate them into different tiers. Agenda much?

It will be way too much effort, but go look through the multiple Parayko to Toronto threads....a pattern will develop

it's hard to justify voting for Parayko when he's behind Pietrangelo (not his fault)

whilst Gostisbehere is the top dog in Philly

I get what your saying but it shouldn't matter. None of these guys would "dethrone" Pietrangelo as what is perceived as a top dog. If Parayko were left handed, then he'd be playing with Petro.

 

[stl76]

it's hard to justify voting for Parayko when he's behind Pietrangelo (not his fault)

whilst Gostisbehere is the top dog in Philly

It's hard to justify voting for Gostisbehere when he doesn't kill penalties, has an unsustainably high PDO, and plays the weakest 5v5TOI%QoC of the group.

this is why I feel Gostisbehere is underrated and Provorov is overrated

Ghost has produced 20 points above Provorov. At some point an offensive gap that large should be acknowledged. And he is getting nearly the same quality of ice-time

The bolded is simply false and easily proven so. Gostisbehere's QoC is 28.93, that is not even in the top 4 toughest QoC on his own team. For reference, Provorov plays the highest QoC on Philly with 29.34, followed by MacDonald (29.13), Oduya (29.09), and Hagg (28.94). Gostisbehere plays very sheltered minutes, almost no PK time, and is spoon fed PP time...which makes sense because he is really good offensively. However, Provorov plays WAY harder minutes.

It will be way too much effort, but go look through the multiple Parayko to Toronto threads....a pattern will develop

Oh, I know. @zeke and I have gone back and forth about Parayko several times in the past. FWIW he has basically admitted to being biased against Parayko because he feels Parayko was overhyped (and thus now needs to be knocked down a peg or two or something? IDK...).

 

[zeke]

5v5 TOI%QoC:

Lindholm - 29.14
Parayko - 29.04
Ghost - 28.93

How do you have Lindholm's QoC as B+, Parayko's as a B? Parayko is closer to Lindholm than Ghost, yet by your arbitrary cut off he is downgraded...despite the fact that Parayko's and Lindholm's other stats are almost identical you choose to separate them into different tiers. Agenda much?

I was looking at ES, not 5v5...but yes even then, the difference looks small - 30 is elite of elite, 29 is.average, 28 is extreme sheltering. the number used on corsica makes the difference look smaller than it is.

basically all i did was take the spectrum of TOIqoc - the top guys at 30, the bottom guys just under 28, and split it up into letter grades. it's crude, but i find it really effective.

So basically:

A+: 29.80 and up
A: 29.6-29.8
A-: 29.4-29.6

B+: 29.2-29.4
B: 29.0-29.2
B-: 28.8-29.0

C+: 28.6-28.8
C: 28.4-28.6
C-: 28.2-28.4

D+: 28.0-28.2
D: 27.8-28.0
D-: 27.6-27.8

F: under 27.6


again, it's crude (and tbh the scale is probably off a bit and should be adjusted), but i find it really helps give a better picture of what the numbers represent.

 

[stl76]

I was looking at ES, not 5v5...but yes even then, the difference looks small - 30 is elite of elite, 29 is.average, 28 is extreme sheltering. the number used on corsica makes the difference look smaller than it is.

I understand that you believe the seemingly small differences in QoC can represent rather large difference on the ice. Not even saying I disagree with you on this point.

What I don't understand is how you arbitrarily designate a cut off that separates Lindholm from Parayko and Ghost, giving Lindholm a B+ and Parayko and Ghost a B...when in fact Parayko is actually closer to Lindholm than he is to Ghost in terms of QoC. Yet somehow magically Lindholm is 2 tiers above Parayko, despite all their other stats being nearly identical? Screams "BIAS!!!" to me.

 

[stl76]

I was looking at ES, not 5v5...but yes even then, the difference looks small - 30 is elite of elite, 29 is.average, 28 is extreme sheltering. the number used on corsica makes the difference look smaller than it is.

basically all i did was take the spectrum of TOIqoc - the top guys at 30, the bottom guys just under 28, and split it up into letter grades. it's crude, but i find it really effective.

So basically:

A+: 29.80 and up
A: 29.6-29.8
A-: 29.4-29.6

B+: 29.2-29.4
B: 29.0-29.2
B-: 28.8-29.0

C+: 28.6-28.8
C: 28.4-28.6
C-: 28.2-28.4

D+: 28.0-28.2
D: 27.8-28.0
D-: 27.6-27.8

F: under 27.6


again, it's crude (and tbh the scale is probably off a bit and should be adjusted), but i find it really helps give a better picture of what the numbers represent.

By your own scale here, Lindholm and Parayko both play "B" QoC. Their other stats are all nearly identical. How is Lindholm 2 tiers above Parayko again?


EDIT: wait, so you're looking at ES TOI%QoC now? Why exactly? Wouldn't this include 3v3 overtime, which tho extremely entertaining, is not a very accurate representation of how the rest of hockey is played?

 

[Apotheosis]

Lindholm or Rielly.

 

[zeke]

By your own scale here, Lindholm and Parayko both play "B" QoC. Their other stats are all nearly identical. How is Lindholm 2 tiers above Parayko again?

Again, I'm looking at Even Strength, not 5v5.



Reilly 29.70

Slavin 29.58
Trouba 29.53

Lindholm 29.30
Dumba 29.26

Parayko 29.19
Gost 29.13

though you're right - I am probably being too generous to lindholm. parayko is just a tick below B+ and Slavin just a tick below A, while lindholm is a midrange B+.

you're right my crude groupings probably misled me a bit. though I'd lean towards more dropping lindholm than upping parayko.

though note that ghost and parayko are in fact neck and neck here. that part is right.

 

[Ainec]

It's hard to justify voting for Gostisbehere when he doesn't kill penalties, has an unsustainably high PDO, and plays the weakest 5v5TOI%QoC of the group.


The bolded is simply false and easily proven so. Gostisbehere's QoC is 28.93, that is not even in the top 4 toughest QoC on his own team. For reference, Provorov plays the highest QoC on Philly with 29.34, followed by MacDonald (29.13), Oduya (29.09), and Hagg (28.94). Gostisbehere plays very sheltered minutes, almost no PK time, and is spoon fed PP time...which makes sense because he is really good offensively. However, Provorov plays WAY harder minutes.


Oh, I know. @zeke and I have gone back and forth about Parayko several times in the past. FWIW he has basically admitted to being biased against Parayko because he feels Parayko was overhyped (and thus now needs to be knocked down a peg or two or something? IDK...).

Holy crap I did not need to read the rest of your horrible post after the first sentence. FAKE NEWS.

Ghost's PDO is 101.99, 6th on the Flyers, 150th in the league

behind actually "unsustainable high PDO" scrubs like Tarasenko, Schwartz Schenn

Pietrangelo's PDO is 101.34

making Blues fans look bad, bet you thought St. Louis was a contender this year too. Seriously do some research before you post.

 

[Ainec]

oh yeah Gostisbehere's iSh% is 3.74, there are 17 Flyers higher

also 5th in xGF%

 

[stl76]

Holy crap I did not need to read the rest of your horrible post after the first sentence. FAKE NEWS.

Ghost's PDO is 101.99, 6th on the Flyers, 150th in the league

behind actually "unsustainable high PDO" scrubs like Tarasenko, Schwartz Schenn

Pietrangelo's PDO is 101.34

making Blues fans look bad, bet you thought St. Louis was a contender this year too. Seriously do some research before you post.

Ok calm the f*** down. When I took the time to gather the numbers in THIS post, Gostisbehere was rocking a 102.29 PDO, which I thought was quite high (2nd highest among this group of defenders). Since that post, I guess corsica has updated with 2 more games and Ghost's PDO has dropped a few points. I should have double checked the stats, that is my bad.

How you have extrapolated this minor mistake into an insult for me and the franchise I root for is just absurd.

For the record, everything else in my post was 100% accurate. You are WRONG to claim that Gostisbehere and Provorov play "nearly the same quality of ice." Feel free to freak out about it and insult me some more...lol

 

[stl76]

Again, I'm looking at Even Strength, not 5v5.



Reilly 29.70

Slavin 29.58
Trouba 29.53

Lindholm 29.30
Dumba 29.26

Parayko 29.19
Gost 29.13

though you're right - I am probably being too generous to lindholm. parayko is just a tick below B+ and Slavin just a tick below A, while lindholm is a midrange B+.

you're right my crude groupings probably misled me a bit. though I'd lean towards more dropping lindholm than upping parayko.

though note that ghost and parayko are in fact neck and neck here. that part is right.

Thank you for the response. I am still curious tho, why would you prefer ES to 5v5 numbers? Wouldn't even strength include rare situations like 4v4 and even 3v3 OT (which tho wildly entertaining isn't really hockey...)?

For the record, if you wanted to include past performance then perhaps that could improve Lindholm's stock a bit (thus justifying a higher ranking). In such a case, I would most likely point out Parayko's development trajectory. Might make for an interesting convo.

 

[Ainec]

Ok calm the **** down. When I took the time to gather the numbers in THIS post, Gostisbehere was rocking a 102.29 PDO, which I thought was quite high (2nd highest among this group of defenders). Since that post, I guess corsica has updated with 2 more games and Ghost's PDO has dropped a few points. I should have double checked the stats, that is my bad.

How you have extrapolated this minor mistake into an insult for me and the franchise I root for is just absurd.

For the record, everything else in my post was 100% accurate. You are WRONG to claim that Gostisbehere and Provorov play "nearly the same quality of ice." Feel free to freak out about it and insult me some more...lol

Freak out? Lol I just said your entire freak out post was fake news, which it was. Also trying to justify it by saying it was 102 2 games ago does not add up to your "unsustainable narrative" seeing as it's still not.

Let me ask why Gostisbehere should be receiving the blame for Hakstol's usage. He and Provorov are by far their best defenders, but whatever I guess you need to throw Parayko a bone

Also not sure if you know this, but just because a coach decides that a player is better utilised offensively and gives him more offensive minutes, doesn't justify defensemen Y and his shutdown usage (your team has Dunn Pietrangelo) as being the better defender.

 

[wintersej]

I like Lindholm but it's easier for Rielly to shore up his defensive game (and he has been doing great at that) than for Lindholm to get the same dynamic offensive ability. At this point, the 20 point + gap in offense is bigger than the gap in defense

Funny I am arguing with you and zeke about where Reilly is TODAY in the other thread (vastly disagreeing on his level of defense today) but totally agree that in the long run he clearly has the highest upside.

 

[stl76]

Freak out? Lol I just said your entire freak out post was fake news, which it was. Also trying to justify it by saying it was 102 2 games ago does not add up to your "unsustainable narrative" seeing as it's still not.

Let me ask why Gostisbehere should be receiving the blame for Hakstol's usage. He and Provorov are by far their best defenders, but whatever I guess you need to throw Parayko a bone

Also not sure if you know this, but just because a coach decides that a player is better utilised offensively and gives him more offensive minutes, doesn't justify defensemen Y and his shutdown usage (your team has Dunn Pietrangelo) as being the better defender.

I made a mistake talking about Ghost's PDO. I've already admitted it and said it was my bad. What more do you want?

As for the rest of the post, man, you're all over the place. I honestly don't understand what point you're trying to make here. Also don't understand why you seem to have taken this discussion so personally. Have a nice night.

 

[Ainec]

Also don't understand why you seem to have taken this discussion so personally. Have a nice night.

peace

#Petro4Norris

 

[North Cole]

this is why I feel Gostisbehere is underrated and Provorov is overrated

Ghost has produced 20 points above Provorov. At some point an offensive gap that large should be acknowledged. And he is getting nearly the same quality of ice-time

You can acknowledge the offensive gap, but you can also contribute a good portion to the powerplay and I'm going to argue his PP production is unsustainable. (STL pp is ranked 27th in the league, PHI is ranked 19th).

Ghost - 55 points / 29 PPP = 53% of total production
Provorov - 33 points / 5 PPP = 15% "'''
Pietrangelo - 50 points / 11 PPP = 22% "'''
Parayko - 33 points / 9 PPP = 27% ""''

Ghost is a good player, but he makes a living off the PP ("not his fault" - lol) with 74 of his 140 career points being on the man advantage. If you want to argue that he is the reason their PP is so good, go ahead, I won't take it away from the guy.

Freak out? Lol I just said your entire freak out post was fake news, which it was. Also trying to justify it by saying it was 102 2 games ago does not add up to your "unsustainable narrative" seeing as it's still not.

Let me ask why Gostisbehere should be receiving the blame for Hakstol's usage. He and Provorov are by far their best defenders, but whatever I guess you need to throw Parayko a bone

Also not sure if you know this, but just because a coach decides that a player is better utilised offensively and gives him more offensive minutes, doesn't justify defensemen Y and his shutdown usage (your team has Dunn Pietrangelo) as being the better defender.

It's not throwing Parayko a "bone", you make Parayko sound like some kind of bum. Why should he receive the blame for his coaches usage too? Just because the coach prefers to play Piet as the number 1 RHD, doesn't mean he's better than Parayko, right? Kidding, he is obviously worse, but they are both worse than Piet so that statement is irrelevant.

It kind of does, because the point of a defencemen is to be a defender. IMO the bolded statement only holds true with elite offensive defencemen... Stats at ES:

Parayko -
p1/60 = 0.59
Rel CF% = 3.12
PDO = 97.74
TOI QOC = 29.19 (even)
ZSR = 46.74 (oz%/(oz%+dz%)


Ghost -
p1/60 = 0.66
Rel CF% = 2.42
PDO = 102
TOI QOC = 29.13 (even)
ZSR = 56.42 (favoured OZ% at ES)

Ghost has a better GF% but a worse xGF%. Other than PDO, I don't see much here that says he is a better defencemen at even strength (where his numbers aren't inflated by his PP), let alone dismissing Parayko or saying he needs a "bone" thrown to him. No real reason to compare PK numbers.

 

[North Cole]

I made a mistake talking about Ghost's PDO. I've already admitted it and said it was my bad. What more do you want?

As for the rest of the post, man, you're all over the place. I honestly don't understand what point you're trying to make here. Also don't understand why you seem to have taken this discussion so personally. Have a nice night.

I wouldn't worry about it. He is hung up on the coaches usage, but in an earlier post he is citing the fact that Parayko plays behind Piet (coaches usage also) as a reason he can't be better than Ghost.

I would rank them:

Parayko/Lindholm
Ghost
Reilly
Etc.

 

[Ainec]

I wouldn't worry about it. He is hung up on the coaches usage, but in an earlier post he is citing the fact that Parayko plays behind Piet (coaches usage also) as a reason he can't be better than Ghost.

I would rank them:

Parayko/Lindholm
Ghost
Reilly
Etc.

I was going to make a response on your other post but why bother with that ranking? You spelled Rielly's name wrong and probably can't spell Gostisbehere. Cool, I get Parayko is probably from your hometown.

To your other point... You really can't make the distinction between playing behind another top defender vs. being used in an offensive role?


and I've never said a bad thing about Parayko, I've always brought him up in the list of good 2012 dmen

 

[Ainec]

It kind of does, because the point of a defencemen is to be a defender. IMO the bolded statement only holds true with elite offensive defencemen... Stats at ES:

Parayko -
p1/60 = 0.59
Rel CF% = 3.12
PDO = 97.74
TOI QOC = 29.19 (even)
ZSR = 46.74 (oz%/(oz%+dz%)


Ghost -
p1/60 = 0.66
Rel CF% = 2.42
PDO = 102
TOI QOC = 29.13 (even)
ZSR = 56.42 (favoured OZ% at ES)

Ghost has a better GF% but a worse xGF%. Other than PDO, I don't see much here that says he is a better defencemen at even strength (where his numbers aren't inflated by his PP), let alone dismissing Parayko or saying he needs a "bone" thrown to him. No real reason to compare PK numbers.

nvm I'll respond to this anyways

There is not much of a gap in their even-strength production but there is a gap between their powerplay production by an inept Hakstol.

Saying their es is close and therefore they are close in offensive prows is extremely lazy. Would you say Saad is the same line driving offensive contributor as Panarin? No.

Parayko does a lot of things well, and is a top 5 D in 2012 draft class but to say he's in the same class in terms of driving offense as Gostisbehere is a fallacy.

 

[North Cole]

I was going to make a response on your other post but why bother with that ranking? You spelled Rielly's name wrong and probably can't spell Gostisbehere. Cool, I get Parayko is probably from your hometown.

To your other point... You really can't make the distinction between playing behind another top defender vs. being used in an offensive role?

and I've never said a bad thing about Parayko, I've always brought him up in the list of good 2012 dmen

I actually went to search up where Parayko was from, just to see why you would say that. Same hometown as cam ward, cool. Yeah, I was born in Ontario, same place as Don Cherry. I can spell Gostisbehere, how do you think I found his stats? I'm not going to waste my time spelling his whole name when I have to write it 15 times.

Would you like me to go back an edit it to Rielly? I don't mind.

What's wrong with my ranking, besides misordered letters? Does it really rub you the wrong way that I have Ghost 3rd? What would your ranking be?

Your usage of ad hominems is a meme. Now that you're hopefully done with the pointless conjectures about me.....

nvm I'll respond to this anyways

There is not much of a gap in their even-strength production but there is a gap between their powerplay production by an inept Hakstol.

Saying their es is close and therefore they are close in offensive prows is extremely lazy. Would you say Saad is the same line driving offensive contributor as Panarin? No.

Parayko does a lot of things well, and is a top 5 D in 2012 draft class but to say he's in the same class in terms of driving offense as Gostisbehere is a fallacy.

You probably should have just left it alone tbh. You are correct, it is a fallacy and that is why i didn't write it. I gave him credit on the powerplay, for some reason you deleted half of my quote. Why is that?

Their offensive production at even strength is fairly similar. Ghost is far better on the powerplay. Ghost is far worse on the PK. I take objection with the fact that you believe parayko needs a bone. He doesn't. The margin between their offense is smaller at ES (where the majority of TOI happens) than the margin defensively. This poll is not about which Dman drives the offense the best. This poll is asking which you would take going forward, I would take Parayko because I want a well rounded Dman. Make your own poll about which Dman is the best offensively of the 2012 class. Surely Ghost wouldn't be sitting in 5th place....

You can use the excuse about Hakstol and how bad his PP is, all day. You can also attribute the usage between Ghost and provorov to their garbage coach. However, those are lazy arguments and totally subjective. Fact is, Flyers PP is one of the things they are decent at this year. It's far better than STLs, a big part of that is Gostisbehere.

Do you actually want an answer to that Saad/panarin strawman? I can look at the stats tomorrow if you want.

 

[Halla]

Agreed, Reilly plays way more pp time, less pk time. Similar zone starts and similar toi%qoc. Parayko is a stud, just too bad pietra is an even bigger one so he gets no credit. Lindholm is a close second imo, for this poll.

2:12 compared to 2:03 is "way more"?

lol

 

[stl76]

I wouldn't worry about it. He is hung up on the coaches usage, but in an earlier post he is citing the fact that Parayko plays behind Piet (coaches usage also) as a reason he can't be better than Ghost.

I would rank them:

Parayko/Lindholm
Ghost
Reilly
Etc.

For sure, I am not losing any sleep over it. If the guy really believes Gostisbehere is the "top dog" in Philly and plays similarly difficult minutes to Provorov then, frankly, I just don't value his opinion in the slightest.

Gostisbehere is REALLY good on the PP and pretty good offensively in general. However, he plays almost zero PK time, plays against weaker competition and with stronger teammates than Provorov at 5v5, while getting very generous offensive zone starts. In short, he is deployed mainly in an offensive role (probably because he is really effective offensively) while Provorov draws the really truly tough usage.

As an aside, it's really remarkable that Provorov only has 1 less 5v5 point than Ghost. Yeah Provorov has plays more minutes 5v5 so it's not crazy to think he would score more...but given his usage, it's still really impressive IMO.

	TOI	shTOI	ppTOI	oZS%	TOI%QoC	TOI%QoT	5v5 Pts
Provorov	24:14	2:40	1:51	46.6	29.34	28.42	18
Gostisbehere	21:35	0:05	3:46	57.8	28.93	28.58	19

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[DatSnipeMatthews]

So Rielly plays the toughest competition out of any of these guys, performs well in those minutes, is on a top club, and is on pace for over 50 points. How the heck wouldn't he be #1 or #2 in this poll?