I came up with my argument for how we can beat the Soo in a seven game series on Sunday night past. Since then, Guelph is throwing a wrench into both the Rangers plans, and my arguments below. Truth be told, if the Rangers keep it up, we mightn't even get past the first round!
But because I said I can make the case for beating the Soo, I'll still post my arguments:
Soo vs Kitchener
Anybody might be able to read this and shoot holes through a lot of what I have to say. But there's a reason I came up with this. During our "round table" talks we have at the Ranger games, I told my buddies that I think we have a chance to beat the Soo in the playoffs. But most tell me that they think I'm nuts. You may think I am too!! So I had to dig in and come up with some arguments to make my case. I'm sure any Soo fan, or any neutral fan, will come up with just as many arguments to counter a lot of what I have to say. But that's what all this is about, isn't it? Lol.
To make my argument, I'll have to display that Kitchener and Soo are actually closer in the standings than what their records' actually show. I also have to make assumptions/predictions of how each team gets to the third round.
First let's investigate each team's regular-season record vs their strength of schedule to display that, to an extent, the gap between both teams (26pts) may be a little artificial.
The Soo had the luxury of playing the most games versus lesser teams than any other team in the league. Without really digging deep into the entire schedule, I went with what stood out to me the most. The Soo played more games against Sudbury x6, Flint x6, Saginaw x8, and North Bay x4 (all the NB games came before the deadline when they were out of a playoff spot and playing bad hockey). All four teams spent considerable time this season either in eighth, ninth, or 10th place in their respective conferences.). For all intents and purposes, games against these four teams, for a top contender, is "guaranteed win night". That's 24 games total. The Rangers only played those same teams a total of 12 times. That's a big difference!
Having this advantage could have a lot to do with inflating the Soo's win totals. Did the Rangers have "easy" games? Sure. Guelph 8 times. Erie 6 times. So I suppose Kitchener playing Guelph/Erie and the Soo playing Saginaw/Flint cancel each other out.
But that still leaves six games versus Sudbury and four games versus North Bay. That's a total of 10 games whereas the Rangers play those same teams only four times. Also, the Soo only had to play a tough Owen Sound team twice while the Rangers had to play them 8 times. So in reality, the difference is a six game swing. The Soo played those 6 games vs North Bay and Sudbury while the Rangers played those 6 games vs Owen Sound. Big difference.
Also, it's easy to find at least six or seven games that Kitchener piddled away this year that should have been wins because of inept goaltending. For all intents and purposes, from the time of the season ending injury to ADB until the time Mario Culina came on board, the Rangers pretty much had borderline OHL goaltenders between the pipes.(Sept 22-Flint. Oct 7-Gue. Nov 11-Wsr. Nov 23-NB. Nov 26-Sud. Dec 5-Wsr. Jan 5-Miss. Jan 6-OS.). In these games either Richardson or McGonigle started and to put it bluntly, stunk out the joint. Sure games like the Missy and Owen Sound games we didn't score much or at all, but when you allow 4 and 3 softies respectively early in the first period, it takes the wind out of your sails.
One may just look at the summaries of these games listed above and question my opinion of the play of these goaltenders, but I'm telling you, you had to have been in the rink and watched these goals go in. Multiple times this year the opposition scored on the first second and third shots of a game - usually just about every one of the goals scored, very easy stops.
Also I take into account the end of the season where the Rangers pretty much coasted to the end. (The Guelph losses). I'm sure the Soo lost a game or two down the stretch as well because they also had nothing to play for. The OT loss to Flint comes to mind. I'll take that into account as well.
With all that in mind, these two teams are a lot closer than the standings show. I think the Soo should have had a harder time winning six more games against Owen Sound rather than getting to play North Bay and Sudbury in those six games. Would they have beaten Owen Sound every time? That's possible. But considering they split their two game season series, I'm willing to bet Owen Sound comes up with a couple of wins. So let's put the Soo at 112 points to finish the season. But let's add a point for the overtime loss to Flint near the end of the schedule. If I'm factoring in our two losses to Guelph, I have to factor in this game as well. That puts the Soo at 113 points.
The Rangers, if you give them the points they should've gotten in the games listed above (I didn't include the Missy/Owen Sound games because you won't win them all), plus the two games vs Guelph, I figure you can add 14 points to the Ranger totals giving them 104 points.
That puts the final gap between the two teams from 26 points down to 9 points.
Therefore, as far as the standings go, these teams, I believe, were actually a lot closer than their records show.
Factor in the fact that the Soo is a small, fast team that from what I hear, doesn't like getting knocked around. The bigger more physical Rangers, as long as they stay disciplined, as disciplined as they were at the Aud when the Soo last visited, can beat this team.
They played pretty even in three of the four games vs each other this season. All three games could've gone either way. The fourth game which was the blowout game up in the Soo, came during that time when we had really no goaltending. I'm not saying if we'd have had better goaltending we would've won that game but surely, it would've been closer.
For us to go into a third round versus the Soo, it will be imperative for the Rangers to go into that round on an even playing field regarding rest and injuries/playing hurt. I don't think Kitchener has as good a chance beating the Soo should the Soo go into the third round having two easy first and second round series while the Rangers have long and physical first and second around series.
It's a given that the Soo will put Saginaw out in four games. Rangers should also put Guelph out in four or five games. It's the second round series that will dictate the condition of each team going into the third round. Kitchener, likely to play Sarnia in the second round, will likely be a six or a seven game series. Based on our season series versus Sarnia, I pick Kitchener in six with an outside chance of beating them in five games. For us to go into the third round and play Sault Ste. Marie on an equal playing field, we're going to need some help from Owen Sound.
Owen Sound is a lot better team than their record shows. I have them on par with Kitchener and Sarnia. The only Achilles' heel they have as we all know is goaltending. Their goaltending not withstanding, I can see Owen Sound taking a game or two off of the Soo. They are playing great hockey right now in the playoffs and they have been one of the hotter teams down the stretch. Provided Owen Sound takes the Soo to five or six punishing, physical games (that's the kind of team they are! ) they and the Rangers should go into the third round with relatively equal rest.
If all the stars align, a Kitchener/ Sault Ste. Marie third round series could be a coin flip. A lot will hinge on injuries, but I'm going to go out on a limb here.
Kitchener in 7.
That means winning in the Soo in game seven. For us to win this series, we are going to have to win in Sault Ste. Marie. Logic tells me that it'll be tough to win all three home games at the Aud versus the Soo. Therefore, I believe the Rangers may have to win two out of four games in the Soo. That's not going to be easy.
Part of me feels that if it goes to a game seven, home ice would favour the Soo winning that game. That's why I wanted to be able to say Kitchener in six. That would mean winning one game up in the Soo and then all three games in Kitchener. But based on how dominant the Soo has been this year, it may be a stretch predicting that we can beat them in six games. The Soo has been dominant at home this year so I think if Kitchener is going to beat them they're going to have to win all their home games. So even though I think it'll be tough for Kitchener to win all three of their home games, I'm going to have to predict they will in order to win this series be it in 6 or 7 games.
Some may say that if I have to write a novel to explain how we can beat the Soo in a seven game series, then I may be grasping at straws!
Am I?
