Speculation: Players more likely to be scooped up by Seattle

[GuerinUp]

I'd think of the pairs Seattle will have as more Pair 1A, 1B and 1C. They will be able to roll 3 pairs right off the bat and will be deeper at defence than probably 70% of the league.

ya, but thats a TON of money to have wrapped up in defense

 

[bernmeister]

Bern, I understand that you may have interacted with a Canes fan, but I can tell you that the majority of Canes fans wouldn't accept the initial offer of Buch for Canes 1st + Drury. There's a great deal of excitement for Drury plus he's thought of as both Trocheck insurance and an ultimate Jordan Staal replacement. Ultimately, if Drury indicates that he's not signing with Carolina, he then wouldn't be part of that deal for Buchnevich. Personally, I don't think he's worth those two assets. He's probably worth a late 1st and not much more (maybe a 2022 6th as a throw in).

Now if you add NYR taking Gardiner's contract, then that might be the basis of a deal. Maybe Buchnevich for Carolina's 2021 1st + Morgan Geekie + Jake Gardiner + 2021 4th....and I love Morgan Geekie, think he's got a pretty interesting ceiling, and my Canes brethren likely lynch me for suggesting such a thing. The way the deal shakes out is you're getting a 1st for Buch and Geekie + a 4th to take Gardiner's contract.

BTW, Carolina's protection list would then look like:

Aho, Svechnikov, Teravainen, Trocheck, Staal, Niederreiter, Buchnevich

Necas doesn't need protection as he's exempt and you forgot Teuvo.

Gave this a like for overall positive vibe and constructive tone, thanks.

Appreciate the confirmation that I was right, that in theory Buch CAN fit into Canes protected list, even if I effed 2 details which cancel out --- Teravainen and Necas.

As to a deal. Buch is in play for the highest bidder.
I considered a core of 2022 1st + Buch to be substantial but not excessive.
b'c I like the idea of getting a C product in our stable, I'd consider a reasonable sweetener.
Is it the best offer? remains to be seen.

But NY is not gonna take on the Gard contract without a signif incentive to do so, and that will require Drury.

I would like, in the appropriate thread so there is no hijacking, a discussion with full participation by Canes and Ranger fans so we can get a head count here.

The Strome to Minny for some variation of 1st + 3rd is not 100% either. That one seems to have small majority of both sides saying go for it.

Again, thanks for constructive, informative reply.

 

[Daximus]

ya, but thats a TON of money to have wrapped up in defense

Very good chance they end up moving quite a few of them to fix holes up front and get more waivers exempt players and futures. I seriously doubt they keep the 6 strongest guys they get.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Burns

 

[SEALBound]

Just tossing this out into the world...

The Penguins are in an interesting position where, really, they only need to protect 2 dmen - Letang and Dumoulin. Marino is exempt, Matheson won't be protected due to contract, and at the moment, I'm not convinced Pettersson is worth protecting. At the same time, we like McCann and Bleuger and would likely want to protect them. That leaves Zucker as the potential odd man out. I think he will be traded by Hextall anyway to recoup assets.

Perhaps there could be a swap with a team that has 4 good dmen but Zucker proves to be better than the #7 on the forward list? Then the Penguins could swap the dman out with another good wing after the draft?

Example (and for f***ing f*** sake it's just an example, don't reeeeeeeee about value or if either team would do it):

Zucker to Carolina for Skjei, then after the ED, Skjei to Minnesota for Greenway or to the Avs for Donskoi or Burakovsky (this presumes the Avs lose Toews or Graves and Minny loses Dumba).

Something like that?

 

[Goalie_Bob]

Why not just keep Skjei to pair with Marino?

 

[BKarchitect]

Just tossing this out into the world...

The Penguins are in an interesting position where, really, they only need to protect 2 dmen - Letang and Dumoulin. Marino is exempt, Matheson won't be protected due to contract, and at the moment, I'm not convinced Pettersson is worth protecting. At the same time, we like McCann and Bleuger and would likely want to protect them. That leaves Zucker as the potential odd man out. I think he will be traded by Hextall anyway to recoup assets.

Perhaps there could be a swap with a team that has 4 good dmen but Zucker proves to be better than the #7 on the forward list? Then the Penguins could swap the dman out with another good wing after the draft?

Example (and for f***ing f*** sake it's just an example, don't reeeeeeeee about value or if either team would do it):

Zucker to Carolina for Skjei, then after the ED, Skjei to Minnesota for Greenway or to the Avs for Donskoi or Burakovsky (this presumes the Avs lose Toews or Graves and Minny loses Dumba).

Something like that?

Edit - point taken about “just an example”...so sure the concept is sensible but teams aren’t going to be lining up to give assets for Zucker in this flat cap world. Just leave him exposed and if he gets taken that $5.5 million off the cap thru 2023 for a guy with 11 points in 27 games who will be 30 next season. And if he doesn’t - he’s not too old to bounce back for the Pens. You just aren’t going to have teams lining up to take that chance via trade when he makes that much money.

 

[SEALBound]

Edit - point taken about “just an example”...so sure the concept is sensible but teams aren’t going to be lining up to give assets for Zucker in this flat cap world. Just leave him exposed and if he gets taken that $5.5 million off the cap thru 2023 for a guy with 11 points in 27 games who will be 30 next season. And if he doesn’t - he’s not too old to bounce back for the Pens. You just aren’t going to have teams lining up to take that chance via trade when he makes that much money.

Edit or not, you completely missed the point.

 

[BKarchitect]

Edit or not, you completely missed the point.

Sure .

 

[ArchAngel55]

I would rather lose Hayes than Turnovercek. More years on his contract for a little less $ but I know Seattle wouldn't take him because of his years left on his contract.

 

[BruinsFan37]

It'll get easier once we know what the final protected/unprotected lists are. Then it should be relatively easy, if you think logically about it, but there will still be some surprises without a doubt.

i.e. the first 3-4 picks will be centers, followed by the starting goalie, followed by the 1st line wings and the 1st defensive pairing, and so on. Last pick will likely be the 3rd goalie.

 

[mondo3]

I think for Colorado JT Compher. He's my prediction to be 100% Seattle-bound.

Still hard for me to tell because trades will happen in order for teams to not lose their desired players. But for the Jets I highly expect Jansen Harkins to be a Kraken as there's no way the Jets let go of Appleton unless he demands for it, and I think Appleton should be the guy considering he'd definitely become a star player for them.

Assuming the Jets protect Wheeler, Scheifele, Ehlers, Dubois, Connor, Lowry, Copp that leaves Appleton or Harkins as the available forward choices, so likely Appleton is picked. Stanley might be left available on D, but it sounds like there will be much better D available from other teams.

 

[TribalPhoenix]

Am I alone in thinking that the Leafs will expose Kerfoot and protect Holl? He's great value for what he does.

 

[Djp]

Am I alone in thinking that the Leafs will expose Kerfoot and protect Holl? He's great value for what he does.

given the contracts they have an exposure requirements they likely go 8-1 exposing Kerfoot and protecting a 4th D

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I know people will continue to deny it but this is from Pierre Lebrun and Ryan Clark’s The Athletic article posted this morning.

The expectation is that the front office thinks it will not be an issue to get veteran defenseman Erik Johnson to waive his no-movement clause.

Seattle Kraken expansion draft: 6 teams in play to make a side deal

 

[CupInSIX]

Am I alone in thinking that the Leafs will expose Kerfoot and protect Holl? He's great value for what he does.

I would imagine Dermott & Holl would be Seattle's targets so no you're not alone.

Edit: and since Dermott is an RFA and there will be great D options, they might go with Engvall.

 

[RogerRoger]

There are a lot of good/decent dman that will be available for Seattle. I'm curious how they'll prioritize them.
If Yandle isn't being a cooperative, the best players under contract that would be exposed are; Nutivaara, Hornqvist, and Marchment. Nutivaara is the best player of the group, but he's probably not a top 6 dman in Seattle's lineup. Although, if Yandle is being a dickhead, then Forsling is exposed and he's a top 6 guy on the Kraken.

 

[ponder719]

I would rather lose Hayes than Turnovercek. More years on his contract for a little less $ but I know Seattle wouldn't take him because of his years left on his contract.

Doesn't matter what we'd rather do. Hayes has an NMC. We are obligated to protect him.

My expectation is that our protected list will be Giroux (NMC)/Hayes (NMC)/Couturier/Konecny/Laughton/Lindblom/(One of Patrick/Voracek/JVR) /Provorov/Sanheim/Myers/Hart, so the choice for Seattle is Gostisbehere, Hagg, Braun, or Morin on defense, Lyon at G, and Aube-Kubel or whichever two of Patrick/Voracek/JVR are exposed. If Patrick is exposed, and I suspect he might be, I think he's the choice for Seattle; if Patrick is protected, then Jake makes the most sense.

 

[Number 57]

Assuming the Jets protect Wheeler, Scheifele, Ehlers, Dubois, Connor, Lowry, Copp that leaves Appleton or Harkins as the available forward choices, so likely Appleton is picked. Stanley might be left available on D, but it sounds like there will be much better D available from other teams.

I think Stanley would be protected by Winnipeg, leaving Niku, Demelo, Forbort and Beaulieu up for grab

 

[tmg]

i.e. the first 3-4 picks will be centers, followed by the starting goalie, followed by the 1st line wings and the 1st defensive pairing, and so on. Last pick will likely be the 3rd goalie.

There’s not even a concept of ‘pick order’ in a one team expansion draft. They’re not picking against any other club and not having to prioritize most demanded players as early picks. They’re just submitting a list of the 30 players they take, one per team, to the league. The order means nothing. Calvin Pickard was not the priority pick of the Vegas expansion draft even though he’s the first listed on the published result. Because sequence meant nothing when every team (this time, Vegas excepted) loses exactly one player.

the last time it was relevant what order players were picked in was the last time two expansion teams were drafting at the same time and had to prioritize the players they wanted to grab before the other team did.

 

[Curufinwe]

Doesn't matter what we'd rather do. Hayes has an NMC. We are obligated to protect him.

My expectation is that our protected list will be Giroux (NMC)/Hayes (NMC)/Couturier/Konecny/Laughton/Lindblom/(One of Patrick/Voracek/JVR) /Provorov/Sanheim/Myers/Hart, so the choice for Seattle is Gostisbehere, Hagg, Braun, or Morin on defense, Lyon at G, and Aube-Kubel or whichever two of Patrick/Voracek/JVR are exposed. If Patrick is exposed, and I suspect he might be, I think he's the choice for Seattle; if Patrick is protected, then Jake makes the most sense.

JVR had a really strong season and only has 2 x $7m left vs 3 x $8.25m left for Jake. But until we have a better idea of what other big ticket forwards will be left unprotected, it's very hard to say which of those Seattle would prefer.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

My guess is that for Carolina, they're just fine with losing Skjei outright to Seattle and letting the LHD depth, including Bean (the guy that they protect) and Gardiner, cushion the blow. That'll likely be Francis' pick. If Brindy isn't fine with going to two offensive D on the left side, maybe they'll sign someone like Oleksiak in UFA.

 

[mydnyte]

I would imagine Dermott & Holl would be Seattle's targets so no you're not alone.

Edit: and since Dermott is an RFA and there will be great D options, they might go with Engvall.

they may go Kerfoot, as forwards/centers are slim pickings, and Kerfoot is much better than his numbers indicate, and he is signed to a good cap hit, can play in the top 6, the PP, and PK
...Engvall tops out as a #3C

 

[Flyer lurker]

Doesn't matter what we'd rather do. Hayes has an NMC. We are obligated to protect him.

My expectation is that our protected list will be Giroux (NMC)/Hayes (NMC)/Couturier/Konecny/Laughton/Lindblom/(One of Patrick/Voracek/JVR) /Provorov/Sanheim/Myers/Hart, so the choice for Seattle is Gostisbehere, Hagg, Braun, or Morin on defense, Lyon at G, and Aube-Kubel or whichever two of Patrick/Voracek/JVR are exposed. If Patrick is exposed, and I suspect he might be, I think he's the choice for Seattle; if Patrick is protected, then Jake makes the most sense.

So from Flyers
F two of JVR Voracek Patrick are out there. If its Patrick no brainer he is the pick. Always take shot on upside at f in this draft. In my scenario he is the 7th f kept.
D Ghost Hagg Braun
G no player worth considering.

If I am Seattle I take Ghost 2 years 9m cap actual salary 6.5m owed. You can play Ghost as no 4 d-man pp1 guy and actual cash is less than cap cash. I would not count on Seattle taking any backloaded contracts in the ED. It is reasonable to pick JVR/Voracek since there will be very few f's you can play on the top 6. It is reasonable to go cheap and pick Braun/Hagg and trade for a 3rd/6th after the ED.

 

[Number8]

It's still very early but always fun to speculate. There will be many changes to line-ups between now and the expansion draft, but with the trade deadline having passed we can at least have a rough idea of who could be available. So who do you see has a high likelyhood of being picked by Seattle right now? I'm making a rough draft just for the heck of it, with the most obvious names available right now

ANA - Haydn Fleury
ARZ - Adin Hill
BOS - Jakub Zboril
BUF - Colin Miller
CGY - Mark Giordano? they have 4 good defensemen
CAR - Brady Skjei
CHI - Alexander Nylander
COL - Devon Toews? Erik Johnson has a NMC
CBJ - Eric Robinson
DAL - Jason Dickinson
DET - Vladislav Namestnikov
EDM - Caleb Jones
FLA - Frank Vatrano
LA - Sean Walker
MIN - Jordan Greenway? I'm guessing they protect 4 defensemen
MTL - Jake Allen
NSH - Ryan Johansen? I'm guessing they protect 4 defensemen
NJ - Nathan Bastian
NYI - Kieffer Bellows
NYR - Julien Gauthier
OTT - Logan Brown? though they may make Matt Murray available and have other young goalies too
PHI - Jakub Voracek
PIT - Teddy Blueger
SJ - Radim Simek
STL - Vince Dunn? they'll also have some interesting forwards like Sanford, Blais, Barbashev
TB - Alex Killorn? they could also pick a D like Foote, McDonagh or Cernak
TOR - Justin Holl or Travis Dermott
VAN - Braden Holtby
WSH - Vitek Vanecek? they could also go with a D like Dillon, TVR, Jensen or Kempny
WIN - Jansen Harkins/Mason Appleton, Sami Niku or Mikhail Berdin, depending on position of need

What do you guys think?

One thing is for sure, they'll have plenty of chances to build a great D and have some solid goaltenders right off the bat. Forwards could be a little more complicated, but with a few trades and free agent signings, they could actually build a good squad. Bottom-2 lines should be easy, but getting talented offensive players will be a bit harder. But of course with cap space, they can always acquire overpaid players

This is really interesting and well done. I agree completely that Seattle will come out of this with a strong D corp -- too many teams have deep defense that they cannot fully protect.

There are a few wild cards to consider:

1) Under ordinary circumstances, of course Seattle will have a list of several potentials from every team ranked in order of value. If they get a few unexpected wins (players they may not have anticipated being available at this stage) they will re-order. For example they may have Defenseman A ranked highly from a team in the middle of the draft but if they get a better Defenseman early on, Defenseman A may become less needed and so they go with another player from that middle of the draft team.

2) Trades will add another layer of re-ordering. Team C trades them Player B to protect someone, which will then create a whole new layer of cascading of the initial order that Seattle might have targeted.

3) Also Team G may say to them "If you pick player X from Team D, we'll give you Player Y from our team plus a pick if you trade us Player X." -- causing another round of re-ordering/cascading of the original best case scenario Seattle might have laid out in Item 1 above.

In other words, this is an excellent start but just a few picks in, the whole sequence might take a completely different turn.

I'd love to be in the war room when this all plays out.

I get that $600M gets you a lot -- and I can understand. But that said, given how heavy loaded Las Vegas was able to get given their very friendly picks that Seattle will now get, it's a sin that Vegas is free from all of this. Vegas will certainly be the big winner in all of this.

Does anyone know how much time Seattle gets between picks?