Speculation: Players more likely to be scooped up by Seattle

[Frenzy31]

The team of his choosing is Colorado though lol. Unless something changed in the last month or so, that’s where he wants to be. Waiving means he stays. Refusing to waive most likely means either a buyout or he’s traded to one of the 13 teams he can be traded to.

Unless he is picked up by Seattle, which is something, as a GM for Seattle, I would leak to the media. There is a reason he put a NMC in his contact. Unless Colorado is offering something to the Kracken to not pick him. In which case, why ask him to wave to begin with. Just pay them not to take someone.

My guess is that he isn't exposed due to his contract.

 

[Mersss]

I don't think it would take that much. He already declined a $5.5m x 6 offer from Montreal, but that offer isn't on the table anymore if rumours are to be believed. $6.5m x 6 or thereabouts would probably be enough, especially from a team who can promise Danault to be a 1C or 2C.

Any team with Danault as a 1C is doomed to be at the bottom of the standings.

Danault has had a rough start of the season. MTL offered him a 5.5 X 6years contract, he refused it. He's not a 6.5M$ C. If SEA wants to sign him for that much and that long, be my guess. He's a great defensive C, but offensively speaking, he's average at best. A team signing him for that much likelly regrets it right away

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Any team with Danault as a 1C is doomed to be at the bottom of the standings.

Danault has had a rough start of the season. MTL offered him a 5.5 X 6years contract, he refused it. He's not a 6.5M$ C. If SEA wants to sign him for that much and that long, be my guess. He's a great defensive C, but offensively speaking, he's average at best. A team signing him for that much likelly regrets it right away

Uhh what? Phil Danault is 9th among NHL centers in 5v5 points over the last two years. That’s average? I understand his pp production and usage is limited and all but that has nothing to do with being a #1C. Terms like #1C/2nd pairing D etc is about a role a player plays 5v5. Danault produces with the best in the league in those 1 through 4 line situations while being top 5 in the league away from the puck in those situations.

Danault is a #1C without a doubt. He might not be a top 30ish C when you consider all situations but he’s absolutely a #1C with regards to how he fits into a 4 line roster. He’s the guy you want playing the heaviest 5v5 minutes on your team and he’s been highly successful in those minutes.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Unless he is picked up by Seattle, which is something, as a GM for Seattle, I would leak to the media. There is a reason he put a NMC in his contact. Unless Colorado is offering something to the Kracken to not pick him. In which case, why ask him to wave to begin with. Just pay them not to take someone.

My guess is that he isn't exposed due to his contract.

The reason to ask EJ to waive his NMC is to ensure that the Avs can protect Makar/Girard/Toews without having to go 8-1 and exposing Kadri/Burakovsky.

I also can't believe that anyone would pick EJ at this point. He's an oft-injured 33 year old with a $6m cap hit for the next two years, who has spent most of the year on the LTIR. If Francis wants to pretend they are going to take him, to the detriment of their team, I see almost zero risk in calling his bluff.

 

[bernmeister]

Howden sucks, why would SEA do that when they can just pick Rooney?

Howden sucks but he's young enuf and has enough ability he might turn it around. He has speed, vision, etc. What he lacks are hands.

He is not worth paying to buy.
If he is a freebie in a deal, and you are starting up a team, then he is fine as a depth add for 4C w/3C potential.

 

[Random schmoe]

Are the Caps really crazy enough to let Samsonov go?

Not for free, no. If they choose to protect Vanecek they'll trade Samsonov. (Or use him as leverage to get Seattle to also take someone of the Caps' choosing.)

 

[ManofSteel55]

if the roster is 23 players and they get 31 players from all the teams what the heck do they do with the extra 8 players?

Pick some guys young enough to still go to their farm club. Do like Vegas and draft extra players from a position in demand around the league so they can make some trades.

 

[Tripod]

The reason to ask EJ to waive his NMC is to ensure that the Avs can protect Makar/Girard/Toews without having to go 8-1 and exposing Kadri/Burakovsky.

I also can't believe that anyone would pick EJ at this point. He's an oft-injured 33 year old with a $6m cap hit for the next two years, who has spent most of the year on the LTIR. If Francis wants to pretend they are going to take him, to the detriment of their team, I see almost zero risk in calling his bluff.

Everyone knew Seattle would not take Dion Phaneuf from Ottawa and it cost them Methot.

EJ could be asked...but he has the right to say no. But in doing so, he also knows he is going to be bought out. So if he really wants to stay in Colorado, he will waive.

 

[McDoused]

Makes no sense for him not to. It's a win-win situation for him

1- If he waives, his contract won't be picked by SEA unless serious incentives addes, which MB won't do.

2- in the event where SEA actually pick Price, he leaves the shitshow thay MTL is, and ends up living where his wife is from and where he spends all of his summer. His wife mau very well ask him to waive in the hope he gets picked up

No waiving = Habs lose Allen = he's back to play 60games + a year = it'll be impossoble for him not to finish his contracr healthy, and likelly ends up finishing his career like Hossa, Gaborik etc.. with a misterious disease

Yeah I saw this response already. The problem with it is you are wearing your Montreal fans hat and not taking into account feelings, perceptions, branding and the locker room. Not to mention if your carey price what that does to your ego and worth. Like how do you think that conversation is going to go?

MB: "Hey Carey we need you to waive you're NMC and expose you to seattle so we keep the guy gunnin for your job."

CP: "Wow really? You want me to go to seattle?"

MB: "Of course but Seattle wont take on your crappy contract. Its so bad they wont take you. This way we can protect Jake."

CP: "So you think I'm not worth protecting? I thought I was the number one guy. Are you calling to ask me for a favour or insult me?"

*clicks phone

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

Pick some guys young enough to still go to their farm club. Do like Vegas and draft extra players from a position in demand around the league so they can make some trades.

you would lose some of them to waivers.

 

[CupInSIX]

you would lose some of them to waivers.

You missed his point about getting players young enough to not need waivers to be sent to the AHL.

Anyway, they should probably make at least a half dozen throw away picks and get as many assets as they can. Francis won't have much time to spend flipping players.

 

[barriers]

Typically if you're not exempt from being drafted in the expansion draft you've already lost your waiver-exempt status.

 

[Piffle]

Yeah I saw this response already. The problem with it is you are wearing your Montreal fans hat and not taking into account feelings, perceptions, branding and the locker room. Not to mention if your carey price what that does to your ego and worth. Like how do you think that conversation is going to go?

MB: "Hey Carey we need you to waive you're NMC and expose you to seattle so we keep the guy gunnin for your job."

CP: "Wow really? You want me to go to seattle?"

MB: "Of course but Seattle wont take on your crappy contract. Its so bad they wont take you. This way we can protect Jake."

CP: "So you think I'm not worth protecting? I thought I was the number one guy. Are you calling to ask me for a favour or insult me?"

*clicks phone

Yeah I don't get why all these fans think their albatross contracts are going to waive to help out the team. Like, have you looked at the history of that happening for other expansion drafts? Guys don't generally do that.

 

[Captain97]

I don't think it would take that much. He already declined a $5.5m x 6 offer from Montreal, but that offer isn't on the table anymore if rumours are to be believed. $6.5m x 6 or thereabouts would probably be enough, especially from a team who can promise Danault to be a 1C or 2C.

Can you source the 5.5×6 decline? Reports that were well known was Habs offered 5x6 and Danault was asking 5.5-5.75×6.

No saying your wrong but I never heard about those numbers and I have been following the Habs religiously since the pandemic began cause I needed stuff to do.

 

[McDoused]

Yeah I don't get why all these fans think their albatross contracts are going to waive to help out the team. Like, have you looked at the history of that happening for other expansion drafts? Guys don't generally do that.

Agreed. If price actually wanted to go to Seattle maybe hes the exception but I dont see why you want uproot your family and leave your comfort zone and friends during the middle of a pandemic. He would be going from a playoff team to one that will likely get lit up every night until his contract is over. Probably not how he wants to end his career.

 

[Richard88]

Can you source the 5.5×6 decline? Reports that were well known was Habs offered 5x6 and Danault was asking 5.5-5.75×6.

No saying your wrong but I never heard about those numbers and I have been following the Habs religiously since the pandemic began cause I needed stuff to do.

I'm not 100% sure on those figures, I'm sure you as a habs fan would know better.

 

[ManofSteel55]

you would lose some of them to waivers.

Not if the players they select don't have to go through waivers. I believe there is a window where players will have been pro long enough to be expansion draft eligible but probably aren't going to be protected in the draft, and are still waiver eligible.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Yeah I don't get why all these fans think their albatross contracts are going to waive to help out the team. Like, have you looked at the history of that happening for other expansion drafts? Guys don't generally do that.

Vegas taking Fleury in the last expansion draft even though he was arguably overpaid at the time has people with grand expectations about Seattle wanting to take on every bad contract out there. The fact is that they would be better off trying to get a balance of players to contribute now, role players, draft picks and still have cap space to sign free agents and take on big contracts - at a significant price.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Everyone knew Seattle would not take Dion Phaneuf from Ottawa and it cost them Methot.

EJ could be asked...but he has the right to say no. But in doing so, he also knows he is going to be bought out. So if he really wants to stay in Colorado, he will waive.

But that wasn't really the same situation. Phaneuf was mostly healthy, and played 23 minutes a game for 81 games the year before, scoring 30 points. He was arguably the Sens 2nd best D, so protecting him made sense.

On the other hand, even if he's healthy, EJ isn't one of our 3 best D. The NMC is literally the only reason why he's even in the conversation for protection.

But, I agree that if he wants to stay with the Avs (and I think he does), he's going to need to waive him NMC for the expansion draft.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Vegas taking Fleury in the last expansion draft even though he was arguably overpaid at the time has people with grand expectations about Seattle wanting to take on every bad contract out there. The fact is that they would be better off trying to get a balance of players to contribute now, role players, draft picks and still have cap space to sign free agents and take on big contracts - at a significant price.

Well, Vegas was paid to take that contract too so that helped matters. If a team is willing to pay Seattle to take something, I'm sure they'd listen to at least a few of those scenarios. Personally, I'm hoping the Sharks ask Seattle to take Jones at the cost of Kevin Labanc or Timo Meier but Jones' contract may be too much for them to think that either of those guys would be worth it.

 

[SensontheRush]

Everyone knew Seattle would not take Dion Phaneuf from Ottawa and it cost them Methot.

EJ could be asked...but he has the right to say no. But in doing so, he also knows he is going to be bought out. So if he really wants to stay in Colorado, he will waive.

Dion Phaneuf chose not to waive his NMC, in case that wasn't clear.

 

[CupInSIX]

Not if the players they select don't have to go through waivers. I believe there is a window where players will have been pro long enough to be expansion draft eligible but probably aren't going to be protected in the draft, and are still waiver eligible.

This should mostly apply to goaltenders.

 

[GuerinUp]

Based on my list from various articles and team board posts on HF this is the team I made...

Keep in mind that this is with zero trades made and given the logjam that is likely to happen on both F and D, it's going to be needed.

Zucker - Athanasiou - Pavelski
Lehkonen - Appleton - Voracek
Johnsson - Gambrell - Kunin
DeBrusk - Geekie - Gauthier
Nylander, Hunt, Svechnikov, Robinson

Leddy - McDonaugh
Dunn - Johnson
Dermott - Dumba
Mahura, Kylington, Jones, Borgen, Gudas

Vanecek
Gustavsson or Daccord
Holtby

The final salary was $81.3m, mind you that is with many unsigned RFA's, so Seattle will no doubt be looking for waivers exempt players they can stash in the minors and futures with some teams. Also Seattle will likely be dealing out defencemen like Vegas was. Also maybe they pass on Holtby for another forward and try and get someone tradeable on G.

i dont see seattle picking dumba up at 6m a year to play bottom pair.

 

[Daximus]

i dont see seattle picking dumba up at 6m a year to play bottom pair.

I'd think of the pairs Seattle will have as more Pair 1A, 1B and 1C. They will be able to roll 3 pairs right off the bat and will be deeper at defence than probably 70% of the league.

 

[NotOpie]

The bold is likely a false assumption for a handful of teams, of which NY only needs 1, or pref 2. for a deal on each guy.

Again, I specifically said (not in a vacuum or now, but) after the season when expiring contracts/buyouts are available, which is obv not the case now.

For example, ANA fans bemoan how thin they are at F. Are you telling me, day 1 after the season ends, they will not have available exp dr slots?




Thank you for the informative post.

I had a convo w/an established Canes fan who suggested the 1st + Drury.
It was a agreed as a win win.
This was in season in the context of rental, around the last TDL..

What you are saying updates that.
Does it automatically kill that deal?

Not definitely.

There are 2 dif aspects here: one is protection the other is cap.

Ok, CAR protects Fs:
Aho, Staal [nmc], Buch, Niederreiter, Trocheck, Necas, Svechnikov
that is 7.
Any Fs on that roster gonna crack those guys?
No.

Now, valid concern #2, $$
this is easier.
NY can take back Fast for free
OR
can do the 2 years on Gardner for 4.05m x 2 seasons after this
for a 2021 3rd and a 2022 2nd

also, you would own Buch's rights but do not have to sign him til post exp dr. but even if you did have to, moving Fast/Gard would = enough room.

Hamilton is not affected by this.

Gard does not have protection clause so he is exposed.
Rangers can consider to buy out, or deal cheap to cellar dweller .. or throw in on subsequent deal to Kraken [depth body w/exper for youth].

Fast we would not protect but is welcomed back for 4th line slot if not selected by SEA.

---------

So yes, it is threading the needle, yes, effort of a workaround is required.

But I'm guessing it can be done.
Did I miss something?

As for the quotes, glad to hear Drury is that good.
So is Buch, who is available to contribute now.

Bern, I understand that you may have interacted with a Canes fan, but I can tell you that the majority of Canes fans wouldn't accept the initial offer of Buch for Canes 1st + Drury. There's a great deal of excitement for Drury plus he's thought of as both Trocheck insurance and an ultimate Jordan Staal replacement. Ultimately, if Drury indicates that he's not signing with Carolina, he then wouldn't be part of that deal for Buchnevich. Personally, I don't think he's worth those two assets. He's probably worth a late 1st and not much more (maybe a 2022 6th as a throw in).

Now if you add NYR taking Gardiner's contract, then that might be the basis of a deal. Maybe Buchnevich for Carolina's 2021 1st + Morgan Geekie + Jake Gardiner + 2021 4th....and I love Morgan Geekie, think he's got a pretty interesting ceiling, and my Canes brethren likely lynch me for suggesting such a thing. The way the deal shakes out is you're getting a 1st for Buch and Geekie + a 4th to take Gardiner's contract.

BTW, Carolina's protection list would then look like:

Aho, Svechnikov, Teravainen, Trocheck, Staal, Niederreiter, Buchnevich

Necas doesn't need protection as he's exempt and you forgot Teuvo.