Player Discussion: 2015 NHL Entry Draft - 4, 24, 65, 95, 107, 125, 155, 185

[Mess]

Because he didn't have a great supporting cast or a playmaking center, his offensive game was fairly underutilized? It's a big cop out to me. At no point when I saw him play multiple times that I saw a player that was ready to explode offensively but just needed that one player to help out.

If you're going to be drafted top 5 in a very deep draft, you better have the ability to drive offence and to do more then simply be a poster boy of intangibles and physicality with above average overall skill level.

If Marner/Strome were in Kingston playing on a line with Juho Lammikko & Spencer Watson.
&
Lawson Crouse was playing wing with McDavid and Debrincat in Erie or Domi & Dvorak in London

What do you think their points would look like for the 3 players ranked 4-6 in this draft.

Would you expect Crouse stats to improve and Marner/Strome to decline? If so then environment and not player would need to be considered in the player evaluation when looking at stats.

 

[theIceWookie]

Playmaking centers drive a teams offense thus the "strength down the middle" team building strategy.

Kingston was 18th of 20 teams in goals for and one of the lowest scoring teams in the OHL.

If your comparing a player on that verses London (+100 goals) and Erie (+130 goals) then you can't punish the player on points on a much lower scoring team when projecting him as a NHL.

Carolina might be deciding how he will look playing wing beside Eric Staal not concerned how many goals he scored being centered by Juho Lammikko as a junior.

Crouse with staal would actually be quite terrifying.

 

[theIceWookie]

.........you'd rather not draft a 6'3" center that just lead the OHL in scoring?

Yes sir.

Faced with the choice between him and hanifin I take hanifin. I don't think strome should be top 5.

I'm quite concerned with him top end compete level.

Would prefer not to draft him.

 

[SprDaVE]

If Marner/Strome were in Kingston playing on a line with Juho Lammikko & Spencer Watson.
&
Lawson Crouse was playing wing with McDavid and Debrincat in Erie or Domi & Dvorak in London

What do you think their points would look like for the 3 players ranked 4-6 in this draft.

Would you expect Crouse stats to improve and Marner/Strome to decline? If so then environment and not player would need to be considered in the player evaluation when looking at stats.

If Marner was in Kingston playing with Lammikko and Watson, I can safely say that he'd drive that line of offence and probably still be one of the best offensive players in the league. Maybe not a 2.0 PPG player but I'd say he's still top 10 in the OHL. I'm that confident that his skill level is elite, not just above average.

Crouse probably puts up more points with McDavid, like most players would, just like Pascal Dupuis can put up career numbers by playing with Sydney Crosby. Pascal Dupuis is not a top end player simply because he can put up points with arguably the best center in the league.

By trying to place Crouse on more favourable line just proves that he's the kind of player that doesn't generate his offence by being THE player. He's the one that forechecks and will help a line with winning a puck battle and things of that nature.

If I put Kessel on a line with Toews instead of Patrick Kane, does he win multiple Conn Smythe trophys and multipe Stanley Cups? Is Kane the new whipping boy of the Leafs and seen as a detriment to the team? If Marner was 6'4" and 220 lbs with that kind of skill, is he better then Eichel, and perhaps McDavid? If Crouse is 5'11", is he even a 1st round selection?

Hypotheticals...

I'm not saying Crouse has no skill. He have above average skill and that's why he's rated fairly high in every single ranking. I just don't see a top 5 prospect in this years draft. I've been wrong many times before though so we'll see how it'll unfold.

 

[91Kadri91*]

Yeah I noticed. If I had done those lists, I would probably have excluded players with so small cohort size, especially with MVS and his ice time as center.

Yeah, I agree, but the problem then becomes giving an inaccurate report of your findings. There's still work to be, that's for sure.

What I find particularly interesting, is that there are three players guaranteed to be elite in this draft according to this model, and those are McDavid, Eichel and Marner, and four that are guaranteed to be first-line players (Strome being the fourth, with a very good chance of being elite). While Strome gets plenty of respect from scouts, Marner seems to be (for whatever inconceivable reason) falling on their lists (see Sportsnet). Considering how often scouts are wrong, could Marner be the first measured, quotable, pre-draft example (depending on where he goes on draft day) of statistical models worth in scouting? It isn't just this model, either; PCS% is very high on Marner too:

 

[thewave]

Yeah, i just don't see the hype with him either. He comes across as a "high risk, low reward" type, particulalry when talking about him in the top 5/10 of the draft. Because, what's his upside really? Even his biggest supporters seem to think he needs a better offensive player to be paired with him for him to produce.

With the #4 pick, I want a player that will dominate the ice, and drive his line on his own, not a passenger.

Sounds like you want Hanifin.

 

[Mess]

Crouse with staal would actually be quite terrifying.

Puck possession is all the rage in the NHL these days as Corsi (moneyball) gain momentum.

If you can add Lawson Crouse to a line of Eric Staal and Jordan Staal and watch them cycle and control to the puck in the offensive zone for shifts at a time unable for teams to get the puck out of their own zone it would be terrifying thought.

Crouse & Staal = Perry and Getzlaf of east verses west version.

Leafs might be looking for Marner & Nylander to match up against that.

 

[SprDaVE]

Puck possession is all the rage in the NHL these days as Corsi (moneyball) gain momentum.

If you can add Lawson Crouse to a line of Eric Staal and Jordan Staal and watch them cycle and control to the puck in the offensive zone for shifts at a time unable for teams to get the puck out of their own zone it would be terrifying thought.

Crouse & Staal = Perry and Getzlaf of east verses west version.

Leafs might be looking for Marner & Nylander to match up against that.

Small boy and midget sized player Nikita Kucherov has been the best puck possession player in the third round. Small player Brendan Gallagher has one of the best numbers as well on average.

All though Perry has been the best in the Ducks/Hawsk series with Keith a close second.

Almost like size has nothing to do with puck possession. Like zero.

 

[91Kadri91*]

If Marner was in Kingston playing with Lammikko and Watson, I can safely say that he'd drive that line of offence and probably still be one of the best offensive players in the league. Maybe not a 2.0 PPG player but I'd say he's still top 10 in the OHL. I'm that confident that his skill level is elite, not just above average.

Crouse probably puts up more points with McDavid, like most players would, just like Pascal Dupuis can put up career numbers by playing with Sydney Crosby. Pascal Dupuis is not a top end player simply because he can put up points with arguably the best center in the league.

By trying to place Crouse on more favourable line just proves that he's the kind of player that doesn't generate his offence by being THE player. He's the one that forechecks and will help a line with winning a puck battle and things of that nature.

If I put Kessel on a line with Toews instead of Patrick Kane, does he win multiple Conn Smythe trophys and multipe Stanley Cups? Is Kane the new whipping boy of the Leafs and seen as a detriment to the team? If Marner was 6'4" and 220 lbs with that kind of skill, is he better then Eichel, and perhaps McDavid? If Crouse is 5'11", is he even a 1st round selection?

Hypotheticals...

I'm not saying Crouse has no skill. He have above average skill and that's why he's rated fairly high in every single ranking. I just don't see a top 5 prospect in this years draft. I've been wrong many times before though so we'll see how it'll unfold.

Funny you mention that (not that it means anything in reality):

 

[The Magic Man]

I've been reading since you guys first posted this PCS stuff, but tell me again, as it's still going over my head. What the ---- is this and what is the acronym PCS, p/GM and what is the difference between the 2 lines? I see PCS in both.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

True. And i certainly don't think that Crouse at #4 is an outlier - he's high on a bunch of lists. I just can't say I agree with them.

It's going to be an exciting draft day, to say the least.

I think there is something there in Crouse that most have not seen. I do know watching him at the Worlds as a 17 year old player, he was better than some 19 year old players. He did not finish some of his chances or he would have had a more memorable tournament. If Leafs draft him, I would be excited. I see a lot of potential here for Crouse to be a dominating NHL player.

 

[91Kadri91*]

I've been reading since you guys first posted this PCS stuff, but tell me again, as it's still going over my head. What the ---- is this and what is the acronym PCS, p/GM and what is the difference between the 2 lines? I see PCS in both.

Prospect Cohorts Success.

They essentially take a number of former prospects/players that are comparable to a particular draft prospect, and use that to measure said prospects likelihood of success (success being 100+ NHL games). PCS p/GM is the average points per game that the successful cohorts produced, which is used to give an estimation of the potential production of said prospect (assuming said prospect is successful).

 

[The Magic Man]

Prospect Cohorts Success.

They essentially take a number of former prospects/players that are comparable to a particular draft prospect, and use that to measure said prospects likelihood of success (success being 100+ NHL games). PCS p/GM is the average points per game that the successful cohorts produced, which is used to give an estimation of the potential production of said prospect (assuming said prospect is successful).

Thanks. I'm starting to get there.

One more thing. How do these numbers for Marner make sense? .65 --> .88 and 48% --> 80%

So the .65 etc represents the PPG stats of his cohorts in the NHL? I'm guessing the % numbers are the numbers of players that have had success...? What's with the date on those numbers?

I hope I'm not a pain in the arse, I'm just trying to get a grasp of this. I'd be surprised if I'm the only one.

 

[91Kadri91*]

Thanks. I'm starting to get there.

One more thing. How do these numbers for Marner make sense? .65 --> .88 and 48% --> 80%

So the .65 etc represents the PPG stats of his cohorts in the NHL? I'm guessing the % numbers are the numbers of players that have had success...? What's with the date on those numbers?

I hope I'm not a pain in the arse, I'm just trying to get a grasp of this. I'd be surprised if I'm the only one.

Not a pain at all. It took some time for me to read up on/understand these numbers too.

The 48%/0.65 is what his likelihood of success (48%), and potential production (0.65 ppg), were in 2013/14. He improved his likelihood of success (based on his increasingly limited cohorts) to 80%, and his potential production (based again on his cohorts production) to 0.88 ppg this season (2014/15), which is very promising. So basically the 0.65 is what his cohorts in the NHL produced based on his 2013/14 cohorts. Due to a significant increase in production this season, Marner's cohorts lessened (due to the rarity of his performance), and his likelihood, and subsequently his potential production, increased.

 

[Menzinger]

Sounds like you want Hanifin.

I do. He'd be my preferred choice. Then it'd be a coin flip between Marner/Strome.

I think there is something there in Crouse that most have not seen. I do know watching him at the Worlds as a 17 year old player, he was better than some 19 year old players. He did not finish some of his chances or he would have had a more memorable tournament. If Leafs draft him, I would be excited. I see a lot of potential here for Crouse to be a dominating NHL player.

And i'll fully concede i've watched only a handful of his games. I wouldn't mind if the leafs managed to get him at the draft, but based on who else will be available at #4, i'd be pretty disappointed if he was taken then.

 

[r3v07ut10n]

id be curious to see Connor brown PCS%

 

[The Magic Man]

Not a pain at all. It took some time for me to read up on/understand these numbers too.

The 48%/0.65 is what his likelihood of success (48%), and potential production (0.65 ppg), were in 2013/14. He improved his likelihood of success (based on his increasingly limited cohorts) to 80%, and his potential production (based again on his cohorts production) to 0.88 ppg this season (2014/15), which is very promising. So basically the 0.65 is what his cohorts in the NHL produced based on his 2013/14 cohorts. Due to a significant increase in production this season, Marner's cohorts lessened (due to the rarity of his performance), and his likelihood, and subsequently his potential production, increased.

Thanks. So the .65 - .8 represents the average of his cohorts, I'm guessing.

id be curious to see Connor brown PCS%

I wonder if there is a data base for this.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

Yes sir.

Faced with the choice between him and hanifin I take hanifin. I don't think strome should be top 5.

I'm quite concerned with him top end compete level.

Would prefer not to draft him.

I feel like every year you, rare and I are always saying the same things and are out of the blue. It also pays off when we are right

 

[91Kadri91*]

Thanks. So the .65 - .8 represents the average of his cohorts, I'm guessing.



I wonder if there is a data base for this.

The 0.88 is the production of his current cohorts. The .65 was the production of his cohorts last year.

There isn't. Not yet, anyways.

The Projection Project (the links should be in this thread) has one, but they use NHLe's, and get different results because of it. Both models, however, have McDavid, Eichel, Marner and Strome as the clear top-4, and both models are very interesting and promising (although still in the very early stages). These models, however, are not as reputable with defensemen as they are with forwards (apparently).