OT: Philadelphia Phillies: 2017 season

[deadhead]

Agents and the MLBPA won't let Machado or Harper go anywhere but to the highest bidder. They are setting the market for future contracts- an unprecedented market at that.

I don't know why people are complaining about them not spending money.

Because buying a big name free agent is exciting, though history shows it rarely is what puts teams over the top. Houston didn't have any (they traded for Verlander, which makes more sense to me, trade for a proven veteran with a couple high priced seasons left, who has shown he still "has it").

SF didn't spend until after they got 3 rings, St Louis had 1 "name" in Holiday, Chicago made one deal, Lester, and so on.

You build winning teams the old fashioned way:
1) scout and draft well (and get lucky and have Altuve fall into your lap)
2) smart trades
3) judicious free agent signings.
Once you have a good team with a deep farm system, then you can gamble on a big money free agent or a big trade. Because you can recover from mistakes
If you can't do (1) and (2), free agents won't save you, only extreme luck.

 

[Adam Warlock]

You’re out of your skull if you don’t think the Phils will throw their hat into the ring for Machado or Harper next winter. Neither of them are your typical free agent.

Exactly. With the money they have to spend...I would consider it a huge failure if they dont get one of those two guys. These are not 35 year old former stars...they are elite talents in the middle of their primes.

Successful teams build through the draft...but the idea that you must field a team with only home grown players is ridiculous. If you put all of your faith in unproven prospects, no matter how much promise they show, you are not going to be successful. Machado and Harper >>> anyone in the Phillies system and youd be dumb not to want to add a player like that to youre team.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Machado & Harper aren’t your typical free agents though. They’re both arguably top five players in the game hitting the market in their prime at the same time nonetheless. You can’t use previous standards based on something that rarely ever happens.

 

[deadhead]

And they're unlikely to come here, when the money gets that big, money doesn't really matter, players generally decide where they want to go, then their agent flirts with other teams to drive the price up.

That's why Trout is probably the only mega-FA the Phillies can sign.
People look at the Thome signing, but that was a different era when the PA pushed Thome to go for top dollar, but those factors no longer apply.

I'd also point out that Machado didn't make the Orioles a winner nor Harper put Washington over the top. Even the top players are only 7-8 WAR, and that might be 3 WAR over a solid starter at that position. So in baseball (or hockey), even the biggest free agent won't be the difference maker (as opposed to the NBA or a QB in the NFL).

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

You keep typing that same stupid shit over and over.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Seriously, how many guys who hit the market this century can even be argued to be comparable in both quality and age? ARod and Beltre (to Seattle)? Borderline cases would be Manny at 28, Tejada at 29, and Giambi at 30. Cano and Beltre’s second big deal were already into their 30s.

You could definitely relax the list a bit with Machado more than Harper, of course.

 

[deadhead]

Even at a prime age, you have to take into account length of contract, and your franchise. If you have to sign a 12-15 year deal, it's really two contracts, a reasonable top dollar 5 year deal, and a really bad 7-10 year deal in his declining years.

Now if you are a 90 win team with lots of money, and figure he can put you over the top the next five years, you might be prepared to eat a lot of the second contract during the inevitable rebuild. But if you're not in position to take advantage of the first five years, you certainly don't want the burden of the out years.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Did you just downplay 3 WAR?

These guys are 25. Not 31. Teams aren't signing Machado or Harper just to put them over the edge the next few seasons. They are signing them to be franchise players so they can compete for the next decade. They'll get 10 year contracts. This is not a difficult concept. Machado is going to the highest bidder.

 

[deadhead]

Harper had one huge season 3 years ago, the last two years combined, 6.3 WAR.
So is he a 10 WAR or 3 WAR player?
Probably most likely a 5-6 WAR player from 26-30, and a 3-5 WAR player from 30-35. That's about 47 WAR on a ten year contract, IF he stays healthy.
A 5-6 WAR player is not a franchise changer.

Same with Machado, 17.3 WAR last three years, two good years, then a fall off last season. So say he's a 6 WAR player from 27-30, and a 3-5 WAR player from 30-36.
Again, around 48 WAR on a ten year deal.

Both would be good gambles at say $350M for ten years.
Neither is going to make any team a winner.
Especially a solid team that already has a 2-3 WAR player and prospects as good lined up in the minors at their positions. Because on the margin, an extra 3-4 WAR isn't a game changer.

So it would be foolish for any organization to build a strategic plan around landing either of these players. Rather, if you have the money and opportunity to sign them, and are weak at that position, it's a good move. But it doesn't replace a long-term strategic vision based on upgrading the entire team. You might get the same value from signing two second tier free agents in the short-run, and spending a few million more per year in player development and the international market in the long-run.

The Phillies didn't win a WC b/c they signed Thome, but because they took Howard in the 5th rd and traded for Lidge.

 

[Les Averman]

Do you just always need to play the role of the heel and argue? That's got to be absolutely exhausting.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Harper had a 9.5 WAR season at 23. There is only one other player in baseball capable of a 10 WAR season. These are top 5 position players in the game. You talk like they have already peaked. Even if they are "only" 6 WAR players, that still puts them in the top 10 on any given year. The kicker is they are 25 so they can actually improve.

The Phillies best team was the 2011 team. The team that signed Cliff Lee and Polanco, and traded for Doc, Oswalt, and Pence.

 

[deadhead]

No, I just don't buy into hype.
"We have to sign so and so or the FO are idiots!"

I like to look at winning rosters and how the players are obtained, and from my experience, it's usually home grown talent and good trades, not big money signings, that build championship teams.

So I'm far more interested in who Klentak signs in LA and drafts this summer than whether we get to sign Harper or Machado in 2019.
And whether he can pull off a couple key trades.
And whether the player development staff can turn around a few careers and produce some hidden gems.
Look at a player like Donaldson, traded in 2008 after he was drafted, bounced around, put it together at age 27, averaged 6 WAR from 27-31.

I'm not against signing Harper or Machado, I just think it's a long-shot for a team like the Phillies, so I'm not focused on it.
I don't think signing or not signing them will be what makes this a championship contender, it'll be the development of players like Nola, Crawford, Kingery, Hoskins, Williams, Altherr, Alfaro, Pivetta, Sixto, etc.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

There’s a very small group of teams that actually have the financial resources to sign one of these players. No team is going to sign both. So process of elimination is in play. The Philes have the most financial flexibility of all these teams thus why every media person has been linking them to that free agent class. Add in with Machado there’s history between him & the front office members here.

 

[FLYguy3911]

He knows that. He's just trying to be the smartest guy in the room.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

Going to need to try much harder.

 

[deadhead]

Harper had a 9.5 WAR season at 23. There is only one other player in baseball capable of a 10 WAR season. These are top 5 position players in the game. You talk like they have already peaked. Even if they are "only" 6 WAR players, that still puts them in the top 10 on any given year. The kicker is they are 25 so they can actually improve.

The Phillies best team was the 2011 team. The team that signed Cliff Lee and Polanco, and traded for Doc, Oswalt, and Pence.

Careers aren't linear, players who peak early rarely get better and better, since regression to the mean sets in (i.e. , if you're an exceptional performer, you're more likely to regress than improve, since you're already at a very high level).

Look at the active leaders:
Pujols - peak from 23-30, improved from about 8.5 to 9.5 during that stretch, but he was remarkably consistent
Beltre - 9.5 at 25, then his best stretch was 31-37, averaged 6.5, highest 7.8
Cabrera - peak from 27-30, averaged 7.1 with a high of 7.5
Cano - very up and down, 8.1 at 27, 8.5 at 29, from 23-33 averaged 5.6 WAR
Utley - peak from 26-30, averaged 7.9 WAR, 9.0 at 29, next five years, averaged 4.0 WAR

It's just hard to sustain peak performance over a career, and neither Harper or Machado have shown Pujols like consistency, more like Cano.
Beltre is a freak, few players get better after 30.
Cabrera, Pujols and Utley all went downhill after 30.

 

[Rebels57]

He’s one of the most in unathletic people I’ve seen in my life.

Holy hyperbole batman lol

 

[FLYguy3911]

I'm done. I'm sure I'll be reading the same shit for the next 12 months anyway.

 

[Rebels57]

Even ruining Phillies threads.

Impressive. Most impressive.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Even ruining Phillies threads.

Impressive. Most impressive.

How the hell is he a Philadelphia fan at all? I mean, we're not keeping him here to stay as one...

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

I had no idea the Beach Boys were singing about Indiana.

 

[deadhead]

I'm sorry, I didn't know this was "I want to fantasize about the Phillies" thread.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

I'm sorry, I didn't know this was "I want to fantasize about the Phillies" thread.

You fantasize about Dave enough so maybe you should let the rest of us live.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Anyway....baseball. Given that they've been rebuffed on Sanchez and Kopech, I wonder if Baltimore ends up circling back at some point or if there's a guy elsewhere they still like whose bloom has come off a bit. Can they go into the year with him on the roster? One would have to think this means they know they can't/won't sign him.

 

[kelmitchell]

Do you just always need to play the role of the heel and argue? That's got to be absolutely exhausting.

He probably even prayed for wentz to get hurt just so he could have another person to shit on.....im completely shocked hes not the coach/gm of all philly sports teams, seriously, nobody knows more than he does, he knows everything and we know nothing