OT: Philadelphia Phillies: 2017 season

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Les Averman

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Mar 3, 2015
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I'm not against signing Harper or Machado, I just think it's a long-shot for a team like the Phillies, so I'm not focused on it.
I don't think signing or not signing them will be what makes this a championship contender, it'll be the development of players like Nola, Crawford, Kingery, Hoskins, Williams, Altherr, Alfaro, Pivetta, Sixto, etc.

Well you've actually been arguing against the likelihood of them being good signings and saying there's no chance they sign in Philly, so while you may be telling yourself that you're arguing a certain point, it's quite clear that you're just being difficult.

Nobody is saying that the Phillies signing them is a guarantee. But given that there are plenty of sources linking us to both players and we're one of the few teams with the money and market to do so, there's a pretty reasonable chance that one ends up in Philly... Nobody here is clamoring to trade away these prospects in order to get them, and nobody here is suggesting that their development is not paramount, but if you have the opportunity to get a top 5 position player in the game, before they enter their prime, it's going to make a huge impact.

The point that everybody is getting excited about is that we have all of this young, budding talent, and we have this insane opportunity to be able to add an established superstar to the bunch. These aren't ordinary FAs and these types of difference makers almost never hit the open market, especially at this age. You can keep telling yourself that you're not playing the heel, but there seems to be a trend, and you don't need to rain on people's parade when the forecast is saying there's a decent chance of sunshine.
 

FLYguy3911

Sanheim Lover
Oct 19, 2006
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Anyway....baseball. Given that they've been rebuffed on Sanchez and Kopech, I wonder if Baltimore ends up circling back at some point or if there's a guy elsewhere they still like whose bloom has come off a bit. Can they go into the year with him on the roster? One would have to think this means they know they can't/won't sign him.
Rumors going around that they are trying to move him by the end of the week. They have an incentive to move him before the start of the year because the team acquiring him can get a compensation pick if he goes to free agency, meaning that gets baked into the return.
 

LegionOfDoom91

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Jan 25, 2013
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Anyway....baseball. Given that they've been rebuffed on Sanchez and Kopech, I wonder if Baltimore ends up circling back at some point or if there's a guy elsewhere they still like whose bloom has come off a bit. Can they go into the year with him on the roster? One would have to think this means they know they can't/won't sign him.

It seems like they’re screwed because Machado is going to test the market regardless. So he could end up being a true rental. The Yankees & Dodgers are probably the only teams that could take that risk.
 

montreal

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Mar 21, 2002
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I would be a bit surprised if Harper hits FA but haven't really followed the situation since what's the point as it's far away and there's no telling if he will sign here or not. I do hope they can get Trout in 2020, or if he tells him in 2019 that he's not going to re-sign, maybe they could work out a trade so they don't lose him for nothing but doesn't cost us an arm and a leg assuming that Trout wants to sign here so of course they wouldn't give up too much when they can get him for free in 2020. But that's all speculation at this point.

For now they need to focus on the young guys improving and there is still a lot of questions there. What can Williams, Alfaro, Franco, Knapp, VV, Morgan, Garcia, Milner, Altherr, Crawford do. How much can they improve is going to be huge if the phils have any hope of being a top team again, the other is going to be what they get out of the incoming guys. Kingery, Sixto, Haseley, Medina, Kilome, etc....

After that they are going to need to pull off a big trade or two at some point. If that works out, if the current youth improve for the most part (since not all will) and if the next few waves of prospects have anything close to big impacts in a few spots adding someone like Trout could fit in perfectly with their time frame of being a contender by 2020 or 2021.

As for today, surprised they didn't lose more then just Tocci, really thought they would lose Pullin but maybe because he needs another year in AAA or Austin Davis who could help the team next year maybe at some point especially if they end up flipping the 2 pen arms they just signed. They didn't lose anyone in the minor league part either and the trade with Pit got them 500K that they need for this year as they are rumored to be adding a 2nd GCL team next season so will need to stock it.
 

deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
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But given that there are plenty of sources linking us to both players and we're one of the few teams with the money and market to do so, there's a pretty reasonable chance that one ends up in Philly...

Reporters sit down, make a list of teams with money, connect expensive players with said list. Like how the Phillies were connected with Arrieta, because Boras seeded that idea with reporters to drive up his price.

I'm sure Klentak would love to sign these guys (unlike Darvish and Arrita), especially Machado, but he also knows that certain teams tend to have the inside track on these deals. While I doubt Machado stays in Baltimore, it seems the Yankees are interested, and they have more to offer (not money, but give me $400M and I'll take NYC, the media exposure and the nightlife). My suspicion with Harper is he may hit FA just to up the price to resign.

That's why my focus is on the Phillies, not some outside chance they sign one of these guys. Klentak has really reworked this organization, revamped the scouts, built an analytics group, added resources to player development, etc. Find or develop one solid player a year that the old FO wouldn't be able to do, and by 2020 we'll add 6-10 WAR to the organization. And like the Flyers, if you build up a deep pool of young talent, there are always guys you can trade for to put you over the top, you know, like Lidge and Halladay and . . .

So my focus, and I think the key to this team, is whether Klentak can do for the Phillies what Hextall has done for the Flyers. If we were to land one of those guys, well, that would be a long shot like turning the #13 pick into #2.
 

Lotusflower

Tha Snake, Tha Rat, Tha Cat, Tha Dog
Dec 23, 2013
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Machado to Philly would make up for losing Wentz to me. My favorite player leaving my 2nd favorite team to join my favorite team.

If he goes to the Dodgers, I'm breaking things
 

FatTugboatFlahr

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Apr 6, 2012
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O's fans hoping that Sixto was in the trade offer being told that he's not going to be included is f***ing delicious.

Machado's value is outrageously low considering he's a top 5 player in baseball. We've had enough bad luck lately; Go get us a trade rape Klentak.
 

whitstifier

Honor Black Excellence in Hockey
Mar 19, 2013
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O's fans hoping that Sixto was in the trade offer being told that he's not going to be included is ****ing delicious.

Machado's value is outrageously low considering he's a top 5 player in baseball. We've had enough bad luck lately; Go get us a trade rape Klentak.

I feel like Machado's getting overrated. He's not a top 5 player. At 3B, I'd take Bryant and Arenado over Machado. At SS, Seager, Correa, and Turner seem better. Might pick Lindor as well over the Oriole.
 
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FLYguy3911

Sanheim Lover
Oct 19, 2006
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I feel like Machado's getting overrated. He's not a top 5 player. At 3B, I'd take Bryant and Arenado over Machado. At SS, Seager and Turner seem better. Might pick Lindor as well over the Oriole.
3rd in projected WAR this year after Trout and Donaldson (another FA after this year).

He had a miserable 1st half of the season last year which sunk his overall numbers.
 
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tucson83

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Sep 30, 2017
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Reporters sit down, make a list of teams with money, connect expensive players with said list. Like how the Phillies were connected with Arrieta, because Boras seeded that idea with reporters to drive up his price.

I'm sure Klentak would love to sign these guys (unlike Darvish and Arrita), especially Machado, but he also knows that certain teams tend to have the inside track on these deals. While I doubt Machado stays in Baltimore, it seems the Yankees are interested, and they have more to offer (not money, but give me $400M and I'll take NYC, the media exposure and the nightlife). My suspicion with Harper is he may hit FA just to up the price to resign.

That's why my focus is on the Phillies, not some outside chance they sign one of these guys. Klentak has really reworked this organization, revamped the scouts, built an analytics group, added resources to player development, etc. Find or develop one solid player a year that the old FO wouldn't be able to do, and by 2020 we'll add 6-10 WAR to the organization. And like the Flyers, if you build up a deep pool of young talent, there are always guys you can trade for to put you over the top, you know, like Lidge and Halladay and . . .

So my focus, and I think the key to this team, is whether Klentak can do for the Phillies what Hextall has done for the Flyers. If we were to land one of those guys, well, that would be a long shot like turning the #13 pick into #2.

if we win world series by signing machado, arrieta, you still going to be upset? why? all the players are still here, they just added pieces to win the world series, i just dont get why is has to be one way and not both?

i dont care if they sign players now and sign bigger pieces next year as long it wins us a championship, that's all it matters. i mean all the draft pieces are here, they signed players to get this team over hump, im happy and you are going to be miserable over it?
 

whitstifier

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Mar 19, 2013
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3rd in projected WAR this year after Trout and Donaldson (another FA after this year).

He had a miserable 1st half of the season last year which sunk his overall numbers.

A few questions...

Doesn't that projection mostly reflect longer track record?

Also wondering how much of Machado's value in WAR is attributable to supposed defensive ability? His bat should have a lot more value at SS, but the dWAR will diminish.

But again, as you mentioned yesterday, how much does the dWAR matter? Like, I think I'd rather take Seager and Correa for their bats over a full season.
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
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if we win world series by signing machado, arrieta, you still going to be upset? why? all the players are still here, they just added pieces to win the world series, i just dont get why is has to be one way and not both?

i dont care if they sign players now and sign bigger pieces next year as long it wins us a championship, that's all it matters. i mean all the draft pieces are here, they signed players to get this team over hump, im happy and you are going to be miserable over it?

We're not going to win the WS by signing Machado and Arrieta.
Machado might add 3-4 wins, Arrieta 1-2. We need to add about 20-25.

Name me a WS team that was built on free agents the last ten years, other than maybe Boston (and the cap rules have become much more stringent, even the Yankees are playing by the rules). Dodgers resigned their own, let Grienke walk, traded for key players.

The Phillies won in 2008 because the young players put it together and Lidge had a great year. SF, St Louis, Houston, free agents played a minor role, even with the Cubs, the key free agents were second tier players like Fowler.

Free agents are the cherry on top, first you have to build the sundae.
Klentak has said this, he'll open the pocketbook when it's time and a free agent can put him over the top. But you don't build a team with free agents.
 

Pablo Sanchez

The Secret Weapon
Oct 17, 2011
379
99
Nj
We're not going to win the WS by signing Machado and Arrieta.
Machado might add 3-4 wins, Arrieta 1-2. We need to add about 20-25.

Name me a WS team that was built on free agents the last ten years, other than maybe Boston (and the cap rules have become much more stringent, even the Yankees are playing by the rules). Dodgers resigned their own, let Grienke walk, traded for key players.

The Phillies won in 2008 because the young players put it together and Lidge had a great year. SF, St Louis, Houston, free agents played a minor role, even with the Cubs, the key free agents were second tier players like Fowler.

Free agents are the cherry on top, first you have to build the sundae.
Klentak has said this, he'll open the pocketbook when it's time and a free agent can put him over the top. But you don't build a team with free agents.

So signing two big name free agents means the whole team is built on free agents? And is there really only one way to build a championship caliber team?
 

whitstifier

Honor Black Excellence in Hockey
Mar 19, 2013
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We're not going to win the WS by signing Machado and Arrieta.
Machado might add 3-4 wins, Arrieta 1-2. We need to add about 20-25.

Name me a WS team that was built on free agents the last ten years, other than maybe Boston (and the cap rules have become much more stringent, even the Yankees are playing by the rules). Dodgers resigned their own, let Grienke walk, traded for key players.

The Phillies won in 2008 because the young players put it together and Lidge had a great year. SF, St Louis, Houston, free agents played a minor role, even with the Cubs, the key free agents were second tier players like Fowler.

Free agents are the cherry on top, first you have to build the sundae.
Klentak has said this, he'll open the pocketbook when it's time and a free agent can put him over the top. But you don't build a team with free agents.

...wat?

The Astros were built from a mix of UFA signings, trades and player development. Same with the Cubs. Probably will be the same with the Phillies, if they're back to the WS in the next couple of years.
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
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The problem with signing free agents is if they don't put you over the top, they do limit your future options.
Machado and Arrieta might take up $60M of your $200M or so of cap room for five years.
Phillies have room the next couple years, but at some point want to extend Nola, Altherr, etc.
A couple extensions and you're over $100M, and as your young players hit their 4th season or so, arbitration salaries set in.

Now Machado is less of a problem since his $40M or so would replace another hitter making $20M.
But Arrieta would be a total waste of money, by the time they're competitive in 2020 he'd be their 4th or 5th starter (he's already lost significant velocity).
 

whitstifier

Honor Black Excellence in Hockey
Mar 19, 2013
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The problem with signing free agents is if they don't put you over the top, they do limit your future options.
Machado and Arrieta might take up $60M of your $200M or so of cap room for five years.
Phillies have room the next couple years, but at some point want to extend Nola, Altherr, etc.
A couple extensions and you're over $100M, and as your young players hit their 4th season or so, arbitration salaries set in.

Now Machado is less of a problem since his $40M or so would replace another hitter making $20M.
But Arrieta would be a total waste of money, by the time they're competitive in 2020 he'd be their 4th or 5th starter (he's already lost significant velocity).

You need to spend around 5 minutes studying this page: Philadelphia Phillies Contracts
 

FLYguy3911

Sanheim Lover
Oct 19, 2006
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Yes the 24 year old with a 7 win season under his belt might add 3-4 wins. :laugh:
A few questions...

Doesn't that projection mostly reflect longer track record?

Also wondering how much of Machado's value in WAR is attributable to supposed defensive ability? His bat should have a lot more value at SS, but the dWAR will diminish.

But again, as you mentioned yesterday, how much does the dWAR matter? Like, I think I'd rather take Seager and Correa for their bats over a full season.
That's the thing. His projections are as a 3rd baseman. A SS is automatically 5 runs more valuable defensively than a 3B so as long as he's not a train wreck (and there's no reason to believe he would be) he'd be even more valuable. Corey Seager they project to be +12 runs defensively. I think Machado could do that, if not better. They still give Machado the clear edge over Seager with the bat.

Correa is in the same tier ~6 WAR. They project Correa to have more baserunning value, slightly more offensive value (139 vs 134 wRC+), but they give Machado the decided edge in defensive value.
 
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