Rumor: Penguins have offers for one of their goalies

[Empoleon8771]

I don’t get how people think Murray holds a ton of value given how volatile goalies are. 2nd rounder. Wasn’t an NHL caliber goalie this year.

I think it is way more likely that this website is undervaluing Murray than overvaluing him.

Murray had 1 bad year, after having a borderline elite year last year. He has 2 cup wins. He's been extremely consistent in the playoffs. Teams aren't going to have the memory of rabbits and pretend he sucks because he had 1 bad year.

 

[66-30-33]

You're probably not wrong. Grubauer seems very injury prone and Francouz doesn't look like a starter (I'll give him a pass if this is injury related, but I don't think it is with the way Bednar talked in the presser last night)

What would Avs give up for MM and maybe even McCann? been wanting Zadorov for years.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The sharks really need a good goalie, so should be all over this

They do need a good goalie which is why they should avoid Matt Murray. It would be stupid for the Sharks to pay a 1st round pick or even a 2nd round pick for a goalie given how volatile the position is and the strong likelihood that they won't be able to move Martin Jones nor will they buy him out.

 

[WreckingCrew]

I think it is way more likely that this website is undervaluing Murray than overvaluing him.

Murray had 1 bad year, after having a borderline elite year last year. He has 2 cup wins. He's been extremely consistent in the playoffs. Teams aren't going to have the memory of rabbits and pretend he sucks because he had 1 bad year.

He was nominally above your average starter last year (hardly "elite"), and below average the year before, it was the year prior he was top 10 (3 years ago). He's being valued as in inconsistent starter (.899-.923 past 4 years as starter), goalies are voodoo so they're rarely valued at their highest potential at this point. If he had 3 years @ .920 he'd have great value, but 4 years of Jekyll-Hyde isn't going to inspire condlfidence

 

[OCPenguin]

I don't trust the old man one bit to make the right decision. He has butchered so many of these.

 

[Gurglesons]

He was nominally above your average starter last year (hardly "elite"), and below average the year before, it was the year prior he was top 10 (3 years ago). He's being valued as in inconsistent starter (.899-.923 past 4 years as starter), goalies are voodoo so they're rarely valued at their highest potential at this point. If he had 3 years @ .920 he'd have great value, but 4 years of Jekyll-Hyde isn't going to inspire condlfidence

I think it’s largely because he is younger than any other options on the market but proven in a starter role, likely doesn’t get an insane contract, and has proven to be good enough to win two cups.

 

[RSPens]

Maybe Calgary is offering Ryan and JR is holding out for Bennett?

Alright, maybe I should let it go, but there are a lot of people showing that Bennett for Murray is a possibility.

 

[Empoleon8771]

He was nominally above your average starter last year (hardly "elite"), and below average the year before, it was the year prior he was top 10 (3 years ago). He's being valued as in inconsistent starter (.899-.923 past 4 years as starter), goalies are voodoo so they're rarely valued at their highest potential at this point. If he had 3 years @ .920 he'd have great value, but 4 years of Jekyll-Hyde isn't going to inspire condlfidence

A .919 save% last year was substantially above average. It was the equivalent of putting up a .924 save% in 2015-2016. A .919 save% is completely an elite season at this point. League average save% in the last 2 years is at a .910 and Murray is at a .911 over the last 2 years. Consider how good he had to be last year to have an above average save% in the last 2 years despite being terrible this year.

If Murray was at 3 years at a .920 save%, the Penguins wouldn't even remotely consider trading him. The price for Murray if he was a consistent .920 save% goalie would be so high that I can't even fathom what he'd bring back in a trade. He'd be the most valuable goalie moved in the last 20 years without a doubt.

 

[Taluss]

Why is he being so public with this? Makes no sense.

Perhaps he likes the offer and is ready to make the trade and is just seeing if there is any final bidders

 

[Dangles78]

He was nominally above your average starter last year (hardly "elite"), and below average the year before, it was the year prior he was top 10 (3 years ago). He's being valued as in inconsistent starter (.899-.923 past 4 years as starter), goalies are voodoo so they're rarely valued at their highest potential at this point. If he had 3 years @ .920 he'd have great value, but 4 years of Jekyll-Hyde isn't going to inspire condlfidence

Oh, cool, what an arbitrary way to evaluate a goalie. Guess Vasilevskiy isn't worth much either since he only has TWO years above .920%

 

[themelkman]

Probably doug Wilson low balling for Jerry

 

[66-30-33]

Probably doug Wilson low balling for Jerry

Oh you just did it...Jarry traded for Hertl at 50%.

 

[RSPens]

People that are slagging on Murray need to remember that Murray played behind the "steller" d pairing of JJ and Schultz.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

People that are slagging on Murray need to remember that Murray played behind the "steller" d pairing of JJ and Schultz.

I mean...so did Jarry and he did markedly better. Plus, it's not like other teams aren't going to have certain faults up and down their lineups.

 

[RSPens]

I mean...so did Jarry and he did markedly better. Plus, it's not like other teams aren't going to have certain faults up and down their lineups.

True, but you have to look at Jarry's positives verses Murray's. Jarry is very good at playing the puck, so he doesn't rely on good puck moving D as much as Murray. I believe that if Murray and Jarry were to see identical scoring chances, Murray is more likely to stop more of them than Jarry.

So my thinking is that if your system has good puck moving D, Murray will put up better numbers than Jarry playing behind the Pens D.

I hope that makes sense.

 

[Mickey Marner]

How likely is Murray to go to arbitration? Would he then be a UFA in 1 year?

Quite likely if he stays with the Pens. They would likely walk away from the award making him a UFA, hence they're shopping him. Whomever doesn't elect arbitration (team or player) selects the length (1 or 2 years) of the arbitration award. Walk away amount will probably be 4.5-4.6 million and these are some contract comparables:

Andersen 5 x 5
Holtby 6.1 x 5
Rask 7 x 8
Price 6 x 6.5
Bobrovsky 7.45 x 4

 

[Pinkfloyd]

True, but you have to look at Jarry's positives verses Murray's. Jarry is very good at playing the puck, so he doesn't rely on good puck moving D as much as Murray. I believe that if Murray and Jarry were to see identical scoring chances, Murray is more likely to stop more of them than Jarry.

So my thinking is that if your system has good puck moving D, Murray will put up better numbers than Jarry playing behind the Pens D.

I hope that makes sense.

It makes sense but I think you're overemphasizing just how much a good puck-playing goalie changes how well your team plays defense.

 

[Mr Positive]

I'd hope the Oilers make an offer on Jarry.

 

[A1LeafNation]

He has an offer for a goalie so I'm thinking it's an offer for the better one.

Teams probably want Jarry which is why he hasn't pulled the trigger.

JR trying to drum up interest in Murray who is looking for a 6M deal.

 

[AKL]

True, but you have to look at Jarry's positives verses Murray's. Jarry is very good at playing the puck, so he doesn't rely on good puck moving D as much as Murray. I believe that if Murray and Jarry were to see identical scoring chances, Murray is more likely to stop more of them than Jarry.

So my thinking is that if your system has good puck moving D, Murray will put up better numbers than Jarry playing behind the Pens D.

I hope that makes sense.

It makes sense but I think you're overemphasizing just how much a good puck-playing goalie changes how well your team plays defense.

From what I can tell, puck playing goalies just play the puck to their defensemen. Since they're playing behind the same defensemen, it would stand to reason that they're getting pretty much identical scoring chances over the course of 1000 shots in a full season. Murray stopped 89.9%, Jarry stopped 92.1%. Something isn't adding up here.

 

[780il]

Yeah I’d want Jarry you can keep Murray.

 

[RSPens]

It makes sense but I think you're overemphasizing just how much a good puck-playing goalie changes how well your team plays defense.

I don't think I am. Since coming to Pittsburgh Pettersson has been one of the most hit d-men in the league. Someone may have to go and look at the numbers, but I have a feeling that he takes a lot less hits with Jarry in net.

Also when the team knows that the goalie can move the puck, it takes a lot of pressure off of the forwards, so they don't over back check and leave the trailer open.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I can pretty much guarantee that every other team knows that it's actually Murray available and any offers about Jarry are dead on arrival.

Just because this website has the memory of a rock doesn't mean that NHL GMs do.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

From what I can tell, puck playing goalies just play the puck to their defensemen. Since they're playing behind the same defensemen, it would stand to reason that they're getting pretty much identical scoring chances over the course of 1000 shots in a full season. Murray stopped 89.9%, Jarry stopped 92.1%. Something isn't adding up here.

Not quite. A superior puck playing goalie can stop pucks, and put the puck directly onto his defenseman's stick before the forecheck can be established so the defenseman has much more time to make a play or bank it off the boards unimpeded. A poorer puck playing goalie won't stop as many pucks and forces his defense to have to retrieve the puck, often allowing the forecheckers to get in on him before he even gets to the puck, giving him much less time to make a play.

In the case of Johnson, that extra second or two is crucial since Johnson can't make plays in a split second. Hell, he can barely make plays if he has all the time in the world, but at least he gets the benefit of not having a forechecker right on his ass immediately if a goalie is better at playing the puck.

 

[RSPens]

From what I can tell, puck playing goalies just play the puck to their defensemen. Since they're playing behind the same defensemen, it would stand to reason that they're getting pretty much identical scoring chances over the course of 1000 shots in a full season. Murray stopped 89.9%, Jarry stopped 92.1%. Something isn't adding up here.

Actually if the goalie moves the puck up effectively there are less high potential scoring chances. If a goalie doesn't move the puck well, then the team has to rely more on team defense. The Pens as a team fall into two categories when playing in front of Murray, either they don't back check enough and they expose the weak puck moving D (or slower moving), or the over back check and leave the trailer open. In both cases the opposing team gets a good scoring chance.

With Jarry in net, they can rely on his ability to make the first pass and the only high scoring chance come off of turnovers.

If Murray had a strong puck moving group of D in front of him, he would be a great starter.