Pavel Bure vs. Alex Ovechkin (prime years)

[K Fleur]

Well 90's was kind of a star studded decade. Not saying it necessarily is objectively the most competitive decade among top-talent but it certainly had a lot of new stars breaking in and some of the 80's guys remained strong.

That’s great.

The 2nd best player of this era is not worse than a player somewhere around the 10th-15th best player of the 90’s. Ovechkin’s resume blow Bure’s out of the water. The last time this comparison was even interesting was like 10 years ago.

The 90’s weren’t that great.

 

[Plural]

That’s great.

The 2nd best player of this era is not worse than a player somewhere around the 10th-15th best player of the 90’s. Ovechkin’s resume blow Bure’s out of the water. The last time this comparison was even interesting was like 10 years ago.

The 90’s weren’t that great.

Oh I agree and that's why I said that even if one believes Bure faced tougher competition it still wasn't that much tougher. OV all the way over Bure.

 

[sr edler]

We're not comparing Ovi's peak against Bure though. The premise of the thread is "prime", which is a bit fuzzy or unclear in this context since Bure didn't really have a prime, he had more like two different "peaks", one 92–94 and one 98–00. So what it really boils down to here is peak Bure vs non-peak "prime" Ovi, and in that case I pick Bure pretty easily because he was just a more dynamic all-ice presence than "designated sniper" Ovi. I'm weak on 94 Bure though, because nostalgia. Everything is better when your 12 years old.

The league was tougher on Bure though, the wild wild west NHL. Ovi still probably would have tackled it better since he was bigger and a more natural physical freak.

 

[sr edler]

The 90’s weren’t that great.

It was still different. Ovechkin made his debut in the new easy NHL with no Dale Hunter's, Bryan Marchment's, Mark Messier's, Scott Stevens', Chris Chelios', Gary Suter's and Ulf Samuelsson's behind your back.

 

[K Fleur]

"The new easy NHL" where players are routinely crashing into each other at significantly faster speeds than they were in the 90's.

While this era may have less dirty players than previous era's it's not like it's lacking in that regard. From Torres, Pronger, Kaleta to maybe the dirtiest of all Cooke.

Ovechkin has played with more than enough of an edge throughout his career to be able to survive the post apocalyptic war zone of 90's hockey.

 

[canucks4ever]

Hasek was having his worst SV% in seven years, Forsberg and Lindros were having their worst seasons in terms of PPG (they also had some teammates who could draw the Hart attention from them, to cite your argument) and Sakic looked nowhere near having a similar impact on the Avs to what Bure did on the Panthers. It's true that Jagr's Hart chances probably went down the toilet with the games he missed, but other than that, from the existent samples it doesn't really look that Bure's Hart votes were that much of a fluke. He seemed to have a better season than the best players of his generation anyway.

EDIT: It's noteworthy you see Bure getting a supposed leeway because so many great players failed to deliver that year without seeing how much Bure's and Ovi's Hart competion differed. The same Hart leeway Bure had for a year Ovechkin enjoyed almost his entire career. No Hasek, no Lindros, no Forsberg, no prime Sakic, no Selanne, no peak Jagr... Often not even his own best contemporaries (Crosby and Malkin).



How about this: if you take the best five seasons of each, Bure scored more goals, points and had a better PPG and GPG. Seems relevant when comparing their primes. Of course you can consider Ovechkin's better, but let's not act like it's understood or the only legit way to go.

If you compare thier 5 most productive seasons, Ovechkin has the higher ppg and he scored more total points.

 

[Laineux]

Ovechkin's peak 07-10
233gp 171g 160a 331p

Gap in points to #2: 12%
Gap in goals to #2: 26%
Gap in points per game to #2: 5%

Ovechkin lead the league in points per game for three consecutive seasons. Bure finished higher than 7th once.

What is there to debate? There is just no objective way to say that Bure's resume is anywhere close Ovechkin's, be it career, prime or peak that you're comparing.

 

[NewUser293223]

If you compare thier 5 most productive seasons, Ovechkin has the higher ppg and he scored more total points.

Oops. My fault. Forgot about his rookie year. And my preference switches towards Ovi again.

 

[sr edler]

Ovechkin's peak 07-10
233gp 171g 160a 331p

You didn’t really read the OP now did you?

When Ovechkin won one of his non-peak Hart Trophies he didn’t outscore St. Louis & Stamkos, he had 1 more point than P. Kane, 3 more points than Eric Staal and 4 more points than Chris Kunitz. Are you telling me that prime Bure never could have matched that? He was top 5 in scoring three times and would have been top 3 in 93–94 if he didn’t miss a bunch of games.

 

[quoipourquoi]

He was top 5 in scoring three times and would have been top 3 in 93–94 if he didn’t miss a bunch of games.

Adam Oates finished #3 with 112 points in 77 games. Pavel Bure finished #5 with 107 points in 76 games. Are you suggesting we give Bure "a bunch of games" to pretend he was a top-3 scorer when in reality, he finished #7 in points-per-game behind the actual top-3 scorers, as well as Cam Neely, Eric Lindros, and Steve Yzerman?

One of his only two top-3 scoring finishes similarly saw him place just #7 in points-per-game. Alex Ovechkin, on the other hand, has five top-3 scoring finishes, and led the league in per-game scoring three years in a row.

 

[Plural]

Adam Oates finished #3 with 112 points in 77 games. Pavel Bure finished #5 with 107 points in 76 games. Are you suggesting we give Bure "a bunch of games" to pretend he was a top-3 scorer when in reality, he finished #7 in points-per-game behind the actual top-3 scorers, as well as Cam Neely, Eric Lindros, and Steve Yzerman?

One of his only two top-3 scoring finishes similarly saw him place just #7 in points-per-game. Alex Ovechkin, on the other hand, has five top-3 scoring finishes, and led the league in per-game scoring three years in a row.

That's what it comes down to me too. If we're talking about prime vs. prime we have to include OV's best years too where he was by eye-test and numbers the best offensive player in the world three years straight. It really doesn't matter how close their other seasons are cause the ground Ovechkin makes in those three years is simply too much for Bure to catch up or come close to.

If we're making an honest comparison outside of OV's peak (which I suppose is the three year period here) then we're going to have to leave out Bure's 3 best seasons too. So what, this comparison then becomes rookie Ovechkin vs. 92-93 Bure? Third Hart trophy Ovechkin vs. 97-98 Bure? 14-15 Ovechkin vs. what exactly? There just simply is not enough substance in Bure's career to make it a valid comparison. Ovechkin beats him in longevity, durability, sustained prime and peak. The mental hoops one needs to jump in order to rank Bure's prime close to OV's is bordering on Lemieux > Gretzky for prime.

 

[sr edler]

Adam Oates finished #3 with 112 points in 77 games. Pavel Bure finished #5 with 107 points in 76 games. Are you suggesting we give Bure "a bunch of games" to pretend he was a top-3 scorer when in reality, he finished #7 in points-per-game behind the actual top-3 scorers, as well as Cam Neely, Eric Lindros, and Steve Yzerman?

One of his only two top-3 scoring finishes similarly saw him place just #7 in points-per-game. Alex Ovechkin, on the other hand, has five top-3 scoring finishes, and led the league in per-game scoring three years in a row.

I didn’t create this thread, and I agree it’s a strange premise of comparison that doesn’t make a lot of sense. Ovechkin had a higher peak, but personally I take 93–94 Bure over 12–13 Ovechkin any day of the week. And yeah, over Cam Neely too.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

You didn’t really read the OP now did you?

When Ovechkin won one of his non-peak Hart Trophies he didn’t outscore St. Louis & Stamkos, he had 1 more point than P. Kane, 3 more points than Eric Staal and 4 more points than Chris Kunitz. Are you telling me that prime Bure never could have matched that? He was top 5 in scoring three times and would have been top 3 in 93–94 if he didn’t miss a bunch of games.

Not only injuries, but linemates.

I've done some number-crunching, and it turns out that forwards were significantly more important to Bure's performance than defencemen.

I sampled four of Bure's seasons: 1991-92, 1992-93, 1993-94, and 1999-00.

What I wanted to know was which players touched the puck last before every goal scored by Bure -- the primary assist. The common misconception about Bure is that people believe defencemen were sending him out on breakaways all the time and that his game was a north-south game. This was not so, especially as there has been footage to document his game and his style of play.

Ovechkin had his best season with a rookie Backstrom and outscored everyone else on his team by 43+ points.

Regardless.. I don't think Bure would benefit much from playing with better players. This guy generated his scoring chances by himself. It's not like he was a cerebral sniper who positioned himself in the offensive zone.. he blew everyone else with his powerful stride and shot.

That's why playing on a brutal team like the Panthers didn't really affect his goal totals.

This is statistical evidence to support the idea that forwards were more pivotal to his game than defencemen:

Here are the goal-scoring logs for Bure from the seasons 1991-92, 1992-93, 1993-94, and 1999-00.

The goals are in no particular order.

1991-92

07:17 VAN Pavel Bure (1)
18:12 VAN Pavel Bure (2) Cliff Ronning and Sergio Momesso
05:25 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (8) Igor Larionov and Dave Babych
08:46 VAN Pavel Bure (9) Igor Larionov and Greg Adams
12:06 VAN Pavel Bure (13) Petr Nedved and Geoff Courtnall
09:54 VAN Pavel Bure (14) Greg Adams and Igor Larionov
09:28 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (16) Cliff Ronning and Igor Larionov
06:52 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (17) Greg Adams and Gerald Diduck
08:15 VAN Pavel Bure (22) Igor Larionov
19:13 VAN Pavel Bure (23) Adrien Plavsic and Igor Larionov
05:10 VAN SH — Pavel Bure (28) Igor Larionov and Kirk McLean
18:31 VAN Pavel Bure (29) Igor Larionov and Dana Murzyn
06:10 VAN Pavel Bure (32)
18:02 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (33) Doug Lidster and Greg Adams
11:42 VAN Pavel Bure (34)
06:40 VAN Pavel Bure (3) Ryan Walter and Gino Odjick
10:31 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (4) Cliff Ronning and Sergio Momesso
01:21 VAN Pavel Bure (5) Greg Adams
14:58 VAN Pavel Bure (6) Igor Larionov and Doug Lidster
02:43 VAN Pavel Bure (7) Igor Larionov
19:56 VAN EN — Pavel Bure (10) Tom Fergus and Dave Babych
08:18 VAN Pavel Bure (11) Geoff Courtnall and Igor Larionov
19:35 VAN EN — Pavel Bure (12) Igor Larionov
00:34 VAN Pavel Bure (15) Jyrki Lumme and Igor Larionov
02:52 VAN Pavel Bure (18) Igor Larionov
16:27 VAN Pavel Bure (19)
13:46 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (20) Gerald Diduck and Dana Murzyn
17:19 VAN SH — Pavel Bure (21) Igor Larionov
18:59 VAN Pavel Bure (24) Adrien Plavsic and Petr Nedved
05:17 VAN SH — Pavel Bure (25)
10:20 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (26) Petr Nedved
12:05 VAN Pavel Bure (27) Robert Dirk
16:48 VAN Pavel Bure (30) Jyrki Lumme and Igor Larionov
09:35 VAN Pavel Bure (31) Geoff Courtnall and Adrien Plavsic

1992-93

05:26 VAN SH — Pavel Bure (2) Greg Adams and Dana Murzyn
14:03 VAN Pavel Bure (3) Greg Adams and Dixon Ward
17:23 VAN Pavel Bure (4) Jyrki Lumme
18:15 VAN SH — Pavel Bure (5)
13:59 VAN Pavel Bure (9) Geoff Courtnall and Robert Dirk
07:37 VAN Pavel Bure (10) Gino Odjick and Doug Lidster
15:48 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (11) Cliff Ronning and Greg Adams
08:04 VAN Pavel Bure (7) Greg Adams
08:05 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (8) Petr Nedved and Doug Lidster
11:02 VAN Pavel Bure (12) Greg Adams and Anatoli Semenov
18:42 VAN Pavel Bure (13) Cliff Ronning and Dana Murzyn
19:56 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (15) Anatoli Semenov and Greg Adams
08:08 VAN Pavel Bure (14) Greg Adams and Anatoli Semenov
09:41 VAN SH — Pavel Bure (16) Anatoli Semenov
01:08 VAN Pavel Bure (17) Anatoli Semenov and Geoff Courtnall
06:51 VAN Pavel Bure (19) Anatoli Semenov and Jyrki Lumme
14:31 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (20) Dixon Ward and Gerald Diduck
01:42 VAN Pavel Bure (21) Geoff Courtnall
09:46 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (22) Jiri Slegr
05:40 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (28) Jiri Slegr and Cliff Ronning
18:49 VAN EN — Pavel Bure (29) Greg Adams and Jyrki Lumme
19:06 VAN Pavel Bure (31)
11:00 VAN SH — Pavel Bure (32) Anatoli Semenov
08:34 VAN Pavel Bure (34)
09:55 VAN Pavel Bure (33) Greg Adams and Anatoli Semenov
02:45 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (37) Jyrki Lumme and Sergio Momesso
07:06 VAN Pavel Bure (38) Greg Adams and Dixon Ward
04:06 VAN Pavel Bure (39) Geoff Courtnall
03:01 VAN Pavel Bure (40) Greg Adams
17:10 VAN Pavel Bure (45)
17:23 VAN EN — Pavel Bure (46) Geoff Courtnall
18:06 VAN Pavel Bure (50) Dixon Ward and Robert Dirk
14:14 VAN Pavel Bure (51) Dave Babych
12:49 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (54) Cliff Ronning
03:15 VAN Pavel Bure (55) Anatoli Semenov
08:14 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (58) Murray Craven and Jyrki Lumme
12:29 VAN Pavel Bure (59) Petr Nedved and Adrien Plavsic
14:15 VAN Pavel Bure (1) Adrien Plavsic
07:39 VAN Pavel Bure (6) Petr Nedved and Greg Adams
16:40 VAN SH — Pavel Bure (18) Greg Adams and Jyrki Lumme
17:40 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (23) Jyrki Lumme and Petr Nedved
17:00 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (24) Sergio Momesso and Trevor Linden
02:39 VAN Pavel Bure (25)
15:45 VAN Pavel Bure (26) Greg Adams
18:15 VAN SH — Pavel Bure (27)
18:14 VAN Pavel Bure (30) Jyrki Lumme
12:32 VAN Pavel Bure (35) Dana Murzyn
18:53 VAN Pavel Bure (36) Jyrki Lumme
11:37 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (41) Doug Lidster and Geoff Courtnall
01:37 VAN Pavel Bure (42) Stephane Morin and Geoff Courtnall
03:34 VAN Pavel Bure (43) Anatoli Semenov and Garry Valk
11:47 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (44) Geoff Courtnall and Petr Nedved
05:11 VAN Pavel Bure (47) Robert Dirk
13:52 VAN Pavel Bure (48) Dixon Ward
07:11 VAN Pavel Bure (49) Jiri Slegr
14:55 VAN Pavel Bure (52) Dixon Ward and Anatoli Semenov
04:55 VAN Pavel Bure (53) Jyrki Lumme and Dixon Ward
10:11 VAN SH — Pavel Bure (56) Anatoli Semenov
13:27 VAN Pavel Bure (57)
12:13 VAN Pavel Bure (60) Murray Craven

1993-94

12:38 VAN Pavel Bure (41) Jyrki Lumme
01:38 VAN Pavel Bure (42) Greg Adams and Dave Babych
16:50 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (43) Jimmy Carson and Murray Craven
02:56 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (51)
05:07 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (52) Jimmy Carson
19:19 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (53) Jimmy Carson and Geoff Courtnall
19:47 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (23) Dave Babych and John Namestnikov
04:37 VAN Pavel Bure (24) Geoff Courtnall
00:54 VAN Pavel Bure (25) Martin Gelinas and Dana Murzyn
04:04 VAN Pavel Bure (35) Geoff Courtnall and Gino Odjick
09:46 VAN Pavel Bure (36) Murray Craven and Dave Babych
10:25 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (37) Jyrki Lumme and Kirk McLean
00:55 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (38) Cliff Ronning and Trevor Linden
00:20 VAN Pavel Bure (47) Gino Odjick and Murray Craven
11:50 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (48) Jyrki Lumme and Trevor Linden
08:16 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (57) Geoff Courtnall and Jeff Brown
00:57 VAN Pavel Bure (58) Murray Craven and Greg Adams
10:44 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (1) Greg Adams
18:52 VAN EN — Pavel Bure (2) Dave Babych
13:19 VAN Pavel Bure (3) Greg Adams and Dana Murzyn
01:50 VAN Pavel Bure (4) Gino Odjick
14:50 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (5) Greg Adams
19:16 VAN EN — Pavel Bure (6) Dave Babych
11:11 VAN Pavel Bure (13) Cliff Ronning and Gino Odjick
05:09 VAN Pavel Bure (14) Jiri Slegr and Cliff Ronning
16:22 VAN Pavel Bure (17) Jiri Slegr and Dana Murzyn
04:16 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (18) Geoff Courtnall and Jiri Slegr
02:36 VAN Pavel Bure (20) John Namestnikov
11:04 VAN Pavel Bure (19) Jimmy Carson and Jyrki Lumme
03:06 VAN Pavel Bure (26) John Namestnikov
05:23 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (27) Jyrki Lumme and Jimmy Carson
03:10 VAN Pavel Bure (31) Jyrki Lumme
06:29 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (32) Geoff Courtnall and Cliff Ronning
02:43 VAN Pavel Bure (7)
16:31 VAN SH — Pavel Bure (8) Greg Adams and Jyrki Lumme
01:36 VAN Pavel Bure (9) Geoff Courtnall and Dave Babych
05:26 VAN Pavel Bure (10) Geoff Courtnall and Murray Craven
09:01 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (11)
17:56 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (12) Cliff Ronning and Jiri Slegr
02:28 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (15) Murray Craven
13:26 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (16) Jiri Slegr and Murray Craven
19:45 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (21) Dave Babych
16:54 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (22) Jyrki Lumme
19:07 VAN Pavel Bure (28) Dave Babych and Martin Gelinas

09:03 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (29) Jimmy Carson and Jiri Slegr
17:37 VAN Pavel Bure (30) Dave Babych and Cliff Ronning
01:17 VAN SH — Pavel Bure (33) Murray Craven
15:12 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (34) Cliff Ronning and Geoff Courtnall
19:56 VAN Pavel Bure (39) Murray Craven and Martin Gelinas
09:04 VAN Pavel Bure (40) Gerald Diduck
14:27 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (44) Geoff Courtnall and Trevor Linden
11:49 VAN SH — Pavel Bure (45) Gerald Diduck
19:24 VAN EN — Pavel Bure (46) Adrien Plavsic and Gino Odjick
04:24 VAN Pavel Bure (49) Murray Craven
18:56 VAN EN — Pavel Bure (50) Murray Craven
10:35 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (54) Jeff Brown and Cliff Ronning
08:43 VAN PP — Pavel Bure (55) Jyrki Lumme and Jeff Brown
11:19 VAN Pavel Bure (56) Geoff Courtnall and Murray Craven
17:48 VAN SH — Pavel Bure (59) Murray Craven and Gerald Diduck
11:05 VAN Pavel Bure (60)

1999-00

07:42 FLA PP — Pavel Bure (16) Ray Whitney and Robert Svehla
19:38 FLA EN — Pavel Bure (18) Scott Mellanby
05:45 FLA Pavel Bure (17)
00:43 FLA PP — Pavel Bure (22) Ray Whitney and Viktor Kozlov
02:58 FLA Pavel Bure (23) Bret Hedican and Oleg Kvasha
09:03 FLA Pavel Bure (24) Viktor Kozlov
19:32 FLA EN — Pavel Bure (25) Scott Mellanby
19:58 FLA Pavel Bure (48) Ray Whitney and Viktor Kozlov
18:50 FLA Pavel Bure (49) Mike Sillinger
19:40 FLA EN — Pavel Bure (50) Mike Sillinger and Robert Svehla
05:02 FLA Pavel Bure (8) Viktor Kozlov
19:39 FLA Pavel Bure (13)
02:45 FLA Pavel Bure (12) Viktor Kozlov and Scott Mellanby
00:38 FLA Pavel Bure (11) Scott Mellanby
19:15 FLA SH , EN — Pavel Bure (20)
11:42 FLA Pavel Bure (19) Viktor Kozlov and Jaroslav Spacek
00:40 FLA Pavel Bure (21) Scott Mellanby and Viktor Kozlov
01:50 FLA Pavel Bure (26) Robert Svehla
13:28 FLA Pavel Bure (28)
07:03 FLA Pavel Bure (27) Ray Whitney and Oleg Kvasha
03:47 FLA Pavel Bure (33) Viktor Kozlov
01:31 FLA Pavel Bure (34) Viktor Kozlov and Robert Svehla
19:59 FLA EN — Pavel Bure (57) Robert Svehla and Jaroslav Spacek
00:22 FLA PP — Pavel Bure (56) Jaroslav Spacek and Ray Whitney
19:26 FLA EN — Pavel Bure (45) Rob Niedermayer
16:13 FLA Pavel Bure (44) Viktor Kozlov and Ray Whitney
08:03 FLA PP — Pavel Bure (46) Mark Parrish and Robert Svehla
11:55 FLA PP — Pavel Bure (47) Robert Svehla and Ray Whitney
13:33 FLA Pavel Bure (53) Jaroslav Spacek and Robert Svehla
01:38 FLA PP — Pavel Bure (54) Ray Whitney and Viktor Kozlov
19:26 FLA EN — Pavel Bure (2) Viktor Kozlov and Jaroslav Spacek
06:57 FLA Pavel Bure (3)
02:55 FLA Pavel Bure (4) Scott Mellanby and Robert Svehla
15:03 FLA Pavel Bure (5) Ray Whitney and Viktor Kozlov
08:36 FLA Pavel Bure (15) Scott Mellanby and Viktor Kozlov
15:57 FLA PP — Pavel Bure (30) Robert Svehla
10:35 FLA PP — Pavel Bure (31) Ray Whitney and Scott Mellanby
04:06 FLA Pavel Bure (36) Viktor Kozlov and Dan Boyle
16:01 FLA Pavel Bure (37) Viktor Kozlov and Bret Hedican
10:04 FLA Pavel Bure (38) Viktor Kozlov
03:28 FLA PP — Pavel Bure (1) Robert Svehla and Jaroslav Spacek
02:18 FLA Pavel Bure (6) Viktor Kozlov and Radek Dvorak
16:10 FLA SH — Pavel Bure (7) Radek Dvorak
17:58 FLA Pavel Bure (9) Bret Hedican
12:17 FLA Pavel Bure (10) Ray Sheppard and Viktor Kozlov
19:51 FLA EN — Pavel Bure (14) Jaroslav Spacek
15:08 FLA PP — Pavel Bure (29) Ray Whitney and Jaroslav Spacek
11:12 FLA Pavel Bure (32) Ryan Johnson and Ray Whitney
01:19 FLA Pavel Bure (35) Robert Svehla
08:32 FLA Pavel Bure (39)
07:51 FLA Pavel Bure (40) Peter Worrell and Robert Svehla
07:46 FLA Pavel Bure (41) Viktor Kozlov and Robert Svehla
10:34 FLA Pavel Bure (42) Robert Svehla and Jaroslav Spacek
14:57 FLA Pavel Bure (43) Jaroslav Spacek and Robert Svehla
17:11 FLA PP — Pavel Bure (51)
18:58 FLA EN — Pavel Bure (52) Robert Svehla
08:46 FLA Pavel Bure (55) Ray Whitney
08:18 FLA Pavel Bure (58) Oleg Kvasha and Bret Hedican

Here are the breakdowns of the primary assists on every Bure goal from those seasons:

1991-92:

22 primary assists by forwards = 64.71%

5 unassisted

7 primary assists by defencemen = 20.59%

1992-93:

39 primary assists by forwards = 65.0%

6 unassisted

15 primary assists by defencemen = 25.0%

1993-94:

34 primary assists by forwards = 56.67%

4 unassisted

22 primary assists by defencemen = 36.67%

1999-00:

37 primary assists by forwards = 63.79%

7 unassisted

14 primary assists by defencemen = 24.14%

------------------------

Notice that, on average, 64% of primary assists on Bure's goals are awarded to forwards -- 1993-94 is slightly lower at 56.67% -- and only 20 to 25% go to defencemen. This is a very consistent statistic over the course of Bure's most respected seasons.

We can compare this with the 1992-93 season of a player who, early in his career, relied more on defense than forwards to a much greater degree than Bure -- Teemu Selanne. Teemu was a player who one rightfully could claim would benefit more from elite defence than forward linemates:

Teemu Selanne (1992-93)

08:53 WIN Teemu Selanne (48) Sergei Bautin and Thomas Steen
16:46 WIN Teemu Selanne (49) Sergei Bautin and Tie Domi
18:55 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (50) Fredrik Olausson and Thomas Steen
07:33 WIN Teemu Selanne (51) Phil Housley
09:07 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (3) Fredrik Olausson and Phil Housley
16:46 WIN Teemu Selanne (4)
13:48 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (5) Fredrik Olausson and Phil Housley
16:24 WIN Teemu Selanne (21) Darrin Shannon and Thomas Steen
00:40 WIN Teemu Selanne (22)
11:14 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (20) Alex Zhamnov and Darrin Shannon
00:15 WIN Teemu Selanne (52) Phil Housley and Thomas Steen
16:59 WIN Teemu Selanne (53) Thomas Steen and Darrin Shannon
09:16 WIN Teemu Selanne (54) Tie Domi and Phil Housley
00:13 WIN Teemu Selanne (57)
14:26 WIN Teemu Selanne (58) Keith Tkachuk
01:08 WIN Teemu Selanne (59)
05:01 WIN Teemu Selanne (60) Alex Zhamnov
12:32 WIN Teemu Selanne (61) Phil Housley and Teppo Numminen
07:55 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (64) Keith Tkachuk and Alex Zhamnov
17:59 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (65) Fredrik Olausson and Phil Housley
07:46 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (66) Fredrik Olausson and Phil Housley
02:32 WIN Teemu Selanne (67) Keith Tkachuk and Alex Zhamnov
07:20 WIN Teemu Selanne (69) Alex Zhamnov and Thomas Steen
13:00 WIN Teemu Selanne (70) Alex Zhamnov and Thomas Steen
18:49 WIN Teemu Selanne (72) Tie Domi and Teppo Numminen
10:18 WIN Teemu Selanne (73) Alex Zhamnov and Phil Housley
08:13 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (10) Ed Olczyk and Thomas Steen
18:48 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (11) Phil Housley and Ed Olczyk
06:14 WIN Teemu Selanne (13)
04:29 WIN Teemu Selanne (14) Alex Zhamnov and Teppo Numminen
12:39 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (26) Phil Housley and Darrin Shannon
06:35 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (27)
07:04 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (29) Phil Housley
14:50 WIN Teemu Selanne (30)
00:57 WIN Teemu Selanne (32) Keith Tkachuk and Alex Zhamnov
19:59 WIN EN — Teemu Selanne (33) Darrin Shannon and Fredrik Olausson
04:20 WIN Teemu Selanne (43) Igor Ulanov and Darrin Shannon
11:23 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (44) Phil Housley and Evgeny Davydov
19:31 WIN Teemu Selanne (55) Keith Tkachuk and Thomas Steen
18:08 WIN Teemu Selanne (56) Kris King
19:41 WIN EN — Teemu Selanne (68) Bob Essensa and Teppo Numminen
10:31 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (71) Phil Housley and Thomas Steen
04:52 WIN Teemu Selanne (74) Igor Ulanov
18:23 WIN Teemu Selanne (75) Phil Housley and Alex Zhamnov
05:25 WIN Teemu Selanne (76) Fredrik Olausson
17:37 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (8) Thomas Steen
14:41 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (9) Fredrik Olausson and Ed Olczyk
14:22 WIN Teemu Selanne (12)
15:34 WIN Teemu Selanne (15) Alex Zhamnov and Teppo Numminen
00:22 WIN Teemu Selanne (16) Teppo Numminen
00:22 WIN Teemu Selanne (16) Teppo Numminen
02:59 WIN Teemu Selanne (18)
14:47 WIN Teemu Selanne (19) Fredrik Olausson and Thomas Steen
00:27 WIN Teemu Selanne (23) Darrin Shannon and Teppo Numminen
19:13 WIN Teemu Selanne (24) Phil Housley
08:01 WIN Teemu Selanne (25) Ed Olczyk and Thomas Steen
06:19 WIN Teemu Selanne (28) Phil Housley and Darrin Shannon
01:08 WIN Teemu Selanne (31) Alex Zhamnov and Igor Ulanov
13:02 WIN Teemu Selanne (34) Phil Housley
10:06 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (35) Fredrik Olausson and Phil Housley
16:44 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (36) Alex Zhamnov and Phil Housley
08:57 WIN Teemu Selanne (37) Keith Tkachuk and Sergei Bautin
12:57 WIN Teemu Selanne (38) Alex Zhamnov and Igor Ulanov
19:52 WIN EN — Teemu Selanne (39) Thomas Steen and Bob Essensa
07:34 WIN Teemu Selanne (40) Alex Zhamnov
15:44 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (41) Darrin Shannon and Phil Housley
15:50 WIN Teemu Selanne (42) Phil Housley and Thomas Steen
16:05 WIN Teemu Selanne (45) Stu Barnes
05:58 WIN Teemu Selanne (46) Keith Tkachuk and Mike Eagles
05:00 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (47) Thomas Steen and Darrin Shannon
14:14 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (62) Phil Housley and Alex Zhamnov
03:29 WIN Teemu Selanne (63) Keith Tkachuk and Phil Housley
16:13 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (1) Phil Housley and Keith Tkachuk
08:39 WIN Teemu Selanne (2) Alex Zhamnov and Darrin Shannon
09:27 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (6)
19:45 WIN PP — Teemu Selanne (7) Fredrik Olausson and Phil Housley

Teemu Selanne (1992-93):

34 primary assists by forwards = 44.74%

10 unassisted

1 by goalie

31 primary assists by defencemen = 40.79%

----------------------------------------

We can see just how different the percentages are compared to Bure's. Less than half of Selanne's goals that season featured primary assists from forwards, and the defencemen were within just a few percentage points.

Phil Housley led the group with 15 primary assists, while Alexei Zhamnov had 12, Fred Olausson had 10, and Keith Tkachuk had 8.

This was a much more skilled group than Bure ever worked with, and we can also see just how much more important defencemen were to Selanne's production that season. The myth that Bure would have been better with an elite defenceman than an elite forward should be put to rest. Bure's game required more partnership and teamwork with other forwards even when those forwards were not elite.

Housley: 15

Zhamnov: 12

Olausson: 10

Tkachuk: 8

Shannon: 4

Steen: 4

Domi: 2

Olczyk: 2

Bautin: 2

Numminen: 2

Ulanov: 2

King: 1

Barnes: 1

Essensa: 1

-------------------------------------------------

Now, let's look at which forwards on Bure's teams received the primary assists on his goals during the sampled seasons so that we understand the caliber of players that Bure worked with:

1991-92:

Larionov: 10 primary assists

Ronning: 3

Adams: 3

Courtnall: 2

Nedved: 2

Walter: 1

Fergus: 1

----------------------

1992-93:

Adams: 11 primary assists

Semenov: 8

Courtnall: 5

Ward: 4

Ronning: 3

Nedved: 3

Craven: 2

Momesso: 1

Odjick: 1

Morin: 1

----------------------

1993-94:

Courtnall: 9 primary assists

Craven: 8

Adams: 5

Carson: 5

Ronning: 4

Odjick: 2

Gelinas: 1

-----------------------

1999-00:

Kozlov: 13 primary assists on Bure goals

Whitney: 9

Mellanby: 6

Sillinger: 2

Parrish: 1

Neidermayer: 1

Dvorak: 1

Kvasha: 1

Sheppard: 1

Worrell: 1

Johnson: 1

---------------------------

The forward who tallied the most primary assists during Bure's first three seasons in Vancouver was his most consistent linemate: Greg Adams. Over the course of two-and-a-half seasons with Bure, Adams tallied 19 primary assists. Ranked either first or second in each of these seasons was his primary center during that campaign: Igor Larionov (1991-92), Anatoli Semenov (1992-93), Murray Craven (1993-94), and Viktor Kozlov (1999-00). Gino Odjick and Jimmy Carson, who each spent time on Bure's line in 1993-94 -- Odjick spent most of that season with Bure --, tallied a handful of primary assists.



With a legitimate centerman, Bure would have benefited immensely. Larionov contributed primary assists to 10 of Bure's 34 goals as a rookie. Despite Bure's increase in production from 34 that year to 60, 60, and 58 in the other three seasons, no particular player ever played such a significant role relative to Bure's goal production as Larionov did in 1991-92.

If Bure had a linemate who could send him the puck while he found open ice, he would have been far more successful than he aleady was. There were moments when teammates made plays, but most of the work was done by Bure himself.

Some examples of Bure finding open ice:







Bure was nearly always hampered by a lack of skilled linemates to work with, and his prime would have been much more successful with players who were capable of greater offensive output.

 

[Canucks1096]

Ovechkin had his best season with a rookie Backstrom and outscored everyone else on his team by 43+ points.

Regardless.. I don't think Bure would benefit much from playing with better players. This guy generated his scoring chances by himself. It's not like he was a cerebral sniper who positioned himself in the offensive zone.. he blew everyone else with his powerful stride and shot.

That's why playing on a brutal team like the Panthers didn't really affect his goal totals.

Aside from a few season Bure usually don't have high amount powerplay goals. Better player would of helped him get more powerplay goals.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

Did Bure ever win a ross or lead the NHL in PPG? Never, even excluding Gretzky and Lemieux. OV did 1x and 3x. Bure came top 10 in hart voting 2x in his career. Ovechkin has more hart trophies than Bure has top 10 finishes. Peak Ovechkin was the NHL leader in goals, pts, GPG and PPG while throwing out ~200 hits. Bure comes close as a peak goal scorer (still worse though) but as an overall player he's not close, whether it's peak, prime or career. Maybe 10 years ago.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

Did Bure ever win a ross or lead the NHL in PPG? Never, even excluding Gretzky and Lemieux. OV did 1x and 3x. Bure came top 10 in hart voting 2x in his career. Ovechkin has more hart trophies than Bure has top 10 finishes. Peak Ovechkin was the NHL leader in goals, pts, GPG and PPG while throwing out ~200 hits. Bure comes close as a peak goal scorer (still worse though) but as an overall player he's not close, whether it's peak, prime or career. Maybe 10 years ago.

I think that the only argument one could make is with regards to peak.

Bure, unfortunately, had too many injuries and too disjointed a career to determine what could have been possible had he been healthy.

In terms of peak, however, Bure's best two seasons are his 1999-00 season and his 1997-98 season.

HF member Zuluss, over at the By The Numbers section of the forum, has developed a system that determines % leads as a means of evaluating goal-scoring dominance over one's peers. The numbers represent Top 10 finishes and the percentage of goals scored relative to the 10th-placed finish in each respective season.

Zuluss determined that the average lead of a goal-scoring leader is 44% above the 10th-placed finish.

Here are Ovechkin's numbers.

Ovechkin: 63-61-52-52-50-44-43-30-15-6

Here are Bure's.

61-55-48-27-10

Bure simply did not have the longevity to compete in terms of career finishes. However, numerous factors must be taken into account with regards to his peak. All three of his seasons in which we finished above 44% (1999-00, 1997-98, 2000-01, in that order) occurred after injuries began to become seriously detrimental to his abilities. Bure was not healthy when he recorded his peak numbers.

In terms of peak season, Bure's 1999-00 season (61% lead) and Ovechkin's 2007-08 season (63%) both cross the 60% plateau. Ovechkin played 82 games in 2007--08 and recorded 65 goals; Bure played just 74 games and recorded 58 goals. Bure's pace over 82 was 64 goals -- very significant based on the % leads system. The 10th-placed finish in 1999-00 scored 36 goals.

If Bure had scored 59 goals, his % lead at face value would have been 64% -- higher than Ovechkin's. If he had finished at 64 goals, his % lead would have been 78%. He missed 8 games.

We also must consider that Bure accomplished this with less talent to work with than Ovechkin that season. Ovechkin was surrounded by Michael Nylander, Niklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin and Mike Green. Viktor Kozlov, who also played with Ovechkin in 2007-08, was Bure's most important teammate in 1999-00. Bure had far less to work with.

Considering those factors, one can conclude that Bure in 1999-00 was a more dominant player than Ovechkin in 2007-08. Peak-wise, there is a strong argument to be made about Bure over Ovechkink, especially since he was 1) damaged, having needed two knee reconstructions before that season; 2) on a lesser team than Ovechkin played with; 3) missed 8 games in 1999-00.

Three crucial factors negatively impacted his season, and yet he was still just one goal shy in eight fewer games of having a more dominant season than Ovechkin's 2007-08 campaign.

In terms of their careers, Bure was robbed of one, so there isn't much point in comparing their careers.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

I think that the only argument one could make is with regards to peak.

Bure, unfortunately, had too many injuries and too disjointed a career to determine what could have been possible had he been healthy.

In terms of peak, however, Bure's best two seasons are his 1999-00 season and his 1997-98 season.

HF member Zuluss, over at the By The Numbers section of the forum, has developed a system that determines % leads as a means of evaluating goal-scoring dominance over one's peers. The numbers represent Top 10 finishes and the percentage of goals scored relative to the 10th-placed finish in each respective season.

Zuluss determined that the average lead of a goal-scoring leader is 44% above the 10th-placed finish.

Here are Ovechkin's numbers.

Ovechkin: 63-61-52-52-50-44-43-30-15-6

Here are Bure's.

61-55-48-27-10

Bure simply did not have the longevity to compete in terms of career finishes. However, numerous factors must be taken into account with regards to his peak. All three of his seasons in which we finished above 44% (1999-00, 1997-98, 2000-01, in that order) occurred after injuries began to become seriously detrimental to his abilities. Bure was not healthy when he recorded his peak numbers.

In terms of peak season, Bure's 1999-00 season (61% lead) and Ovechkin's 2007-08 season (63%) both cross the 60% plateau. Ovechkin played 82 games in 2007--08 and recorded 65 goals; Bure played just 74 games and recorded 58 goals. Bure's pace over 82 was 64 goals -- very significant based on the % leads system. The 10th-placed finish in 1999-00 scored 36 goals.

If Bure had scored 59 goals, his % lead at face value would have been 64% -- higher than Ovechkin's. If he had finished at 64 goals, his % lead would have been 78%. He missed 8 games.

We also must consider that Bure accomplished this with less talent to work with than Ovechkin that season. Ovechkin was surrounded by Michael Nylander, Niklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin and Mike Green. Viktor Kozlov, who also played with Ovechkin in 2007-08, was Bure's most important teammate in 1999-00. Bure had far less to work with.

Considering those factors, one can conclude that Bure in 1999-00 was a more dominant player than Ovechkin in 2007-08. Peak-wise, there is a strong argument to be made about Bure over Ovechkink, especially since he was 1) damaged, having needed two knee reconstructions before that season; 2) on a lesser team than Ovechkin played with; 3) missed 8 games in 1999-00.

Three crucial factors negatively impacted his season, and yet he was still just one goal shy in eight fewer games of having a more dominant season than Ovechkin's 2007-08 campaign.

In terms of their careers, Bure was robbed of one, so there isn't much point in comparing their careers.

Bure's 97/98 wouldn't crack OV's top 5 seasons. As for 99/00, it's a nice season but no. Goals only, yes maybe. But let's look at the whole story:

Ovechkin vs Bure

Goals: 1st---1st
GPG: 1st---1st
Pts: 1st---2nd
PPG: 1st---3rd
Hart: 1st---3rd

Clean sweep for Ovechkin. Add in that he also threw out 220 hits, while Bure had zero impact on the game in any other way, and it's pretty clearly Ovechkin.

 

[WeRa]

Pavel Bure was great... he was as fast as lightning .. in his prime.
IMO Ovechkin is better - thanks to the number of great seasons.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

Bure's 97/98 wouldn't crack OV's top 5 seasons. As for 99/00, it's a nice season but no. Goals only, yes maybe. But let's look at the whole story:

Ovechkin vs Bure

Goals: 1st---1st
GPG: 1st---1st
Pts: 1st---2nd
PPG: 1st---3rd
Hart: 1st---3rd

Clean sweep for Ovechkin. Add in that he also threw out 220 hits, while Bure had zero impact on the game in any other way, and it's pretty clearly Ovechkin.

Total points are more dependent on the overall ability of the team than any individual player.

Consider that Bure missed 8 games and also played in a lower-scoring year (1999-00: 2.75 GPG vs 2007-08: 2.78 GPG).

Bure (1999-00):

74 games played

45 even strength goals
15 first goals
14 game-winning goals

Team record when Bure scored: 29-10-0-2 (70.7% win percentage)
Team record when Bure did not score: 10-14-4-5 (30.3% win percentage)

Ovechkin (2007-08):

82 games played

43 even strength goals
9 first goals
10 game-winning goals

Team record when Ovechkin scored: 28-15-2-2 (59.6% win percentage)
Team record when Ovechkin did not score: 15-16-2-2 (42.9% win percentage)

Bure was more important to his team, and also more dominant based on the % lead metrics.

 

[quoipourquoi]

Consider that Bure missed 8 games and also played in a lower-scoring year (1999-00: 2.75 GPG vs 2007-08: 2.78 GPG).

So we're just going to ignore that in 1999-00, all of the Hart winners from the surrounding years (1995-2004) missed 19 games minimum - but excuse Pavel Bure for not winning the scoring race because he missed 8 games even though both the previous year's Hart winner and following year's Hart winner out-paced him in 1999-00 too?

Do tell us: why do we need to factor in that Bure played 74/82 when talking about how Alex Ovechkin won the Art Ross in 2008 and Pavel Bure did not in 2000 when Bure loses to someone who plays 63/82?

 

[Blade Paradigm]

So we're just going to ignore that in 1999-00, all of the Hart winners from the surrounding years (1995-2004) missed 19 games minimum - but excuse Pavel Bure for not winning the scoring race because he missed 8 games even though both the previous year's Hart winner and following year's Hart winner out-paced him in 1999-00 too?

Do tell us: why do we need to factor in that Bure played 74/82 when talking about how Alex Ovechkin won the Art Ross in 2008 and Pavel Bure did not in 2000 when Bure loses to someone who plays 63/82?

You've misread. The argument isn't that he lost the Hart Trophy because of time lost. The argument is that his goal-scoring dominance over the 10th-placed finisher in goals -- the basis of comparison between the two players in question -- was severely reduced by the loss of those eight games.

The principle behind Zuluss' system is that the degree to which a player dominates should not be compared directly at the top of the goal-scoring race but instead against the rest of the league. His findings are that goal-scoring around the 10th-placed finish tends to level out, creating a basis of comparison for players who separate themselves at the top of the scoring race. There may be some years where multiple players dominate, and so one player's ability should not be diminished in value just because another player is also having a very dominant season.

He also devised a conversion method between eras based on level of competition, the difference between scoring eras, and the number of first-line forwards in the league (a multiplier of 0.6 for pre-1970 seasons and 0.9 for seasons between 1970 and 1997).

He provided numerous calculations in the By The Numbers section for players such as Gordie Howe, Maurice Richard, Bobby Hull, Wayne Gretzky.

Using this system, we find that Ovechkin's peak season (2007-08) was 63% better than the 10th-placed finisher that season (Vincent Lecavalier, 40 goals). Bure's peak season (1999-00) was 61% better than the 10th-placed finisher that season (Milan Hejduk, 36 goals).

Even if we do not account for any time lost (this system does not account for that), Bure's 58 goals gives him a 61% lead over the 10th-placed finish, which is remarkably similar to Ovechkin's 63% lead over the 10th-placed finisher in 2007-08. That margin is less than a one-goal difference going in either direction (64/40 = 60%; 59/36 = 64%).

One can conclude, even at face value, that they had virtually equal dominance over their peers in their respective peak seasons. The implication of more games played by Bure simply would have been a more dominant goal-scoring season based on these metrics, considering Ovechkin had all 82 games to separate himself from his field.

I never made an argument as to whether Bure should have won the Hart Trophy. Not all years are the same, and that season featured two players whose seasons were as important to their teams as Bure's.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

Zuluss' method provides some very insightful results about goal-scoring dominance over peers. I am quite impressed by the methodology.

Now, let's look at the dominance of the best five goal-scorers all-time (Richard, Howe, Bobby Hull, Gretzky, Ovechkin) over peers. The number of goal-scoring titles / top3 finishes is one measure of that. However, not all goal-scoring titles are created equal and the margin of the win matters.

My favorite measure is the % lead over the 10th place. 10th place totals are very stable within an era (e.g., since 2009 they went 35-34-36-34-33-33-34), and the comparison to #10 does not have an element of randomness the comparison with #2 would have (what if #2 is another all-time great? what if the strongest challenger got injured?).

So, here are the % leads over #10 for all the seasons the five players in question finished in the top10, from best to worst

Hull: 108-93-92-79-71-63-56-47-32-22-19-19-15
Howe: 145-105-96-83-58-57-52-46-32-30-29-27-22-19-16-8-4-0
Richard: 117-100-80-76-73-58-40-38-35-17-14-13

Gretzky: 85-85-59-48-48-17-15-13-9

Ovechkin: 63-61-52-52-50-44-43-30-15-6

The first thing that catches the eye is that Bobby Hull/Howe/Richard blow everyone out of the water. For example, 3rd-best season for Gretzky would be 7th-best for Hull, and 3rd-best season by Ovechkin would be 8th-best for Hull. Most likely, that's the era effect (6 teams, 18 first-line players, many OK players do not have a fair chance to crack top10 in a career season).

So I looked at the average margins in the O6 era (starting with 1943, the first year Richard appeared in top10) vs. the current low-scoring era (1997-2017). It turns out the average lead of the goal-scoring title winner over #10 in the 06 era was 75%, while in 1997-2017 it is 44%. That means, for example, that Hull had only four seasons when he led #10 by the margin that would be not worse than the margin of an average goal-scoring title winner, and Ovechkin had six such seasons (seven if we count the 43% margin).

Now, probably the average margin of a goal-scoring title winner was so high in 1943-1967 because the wins by Hull, Richard, and Howe were all in that interval. So let's look at the margin of a runner-up over #10. It was 45% in the O6 era vs. 30% in the modern times.
44/75=0.6, 30/45=0.65 - we get roughly the same conclusions that the lead margins are now 60-65% of what they used to be.

So, let's adjust the margins of Hull/Howe/Richard by multiplying them by 0.6 to make them "modern":

Hull (60% adj): 65-56-55-48-42-38-34-28-19-13-12-9
Howe (60% adj): 87-63-58-50-35-34-31-28-19-18-16-13-11-10-10-5-2-0
Richard (60% adj): 70-60-52-48-46-44-35-24-23-21-10-9-8
Ovechkin: 63-61-52-52-50-44-43-30-15-6

All four look close. Richard and Howe have a better 3-year peak than Ovechkin, but starting with the fourth season Ovechkin really takes over, especially if we compare him to Howe. Hull and Ovechkin have a similar 3-year peak, but then again after that Ovechkin starts gaining ground on Hull. Somewhat surprisingly for me, Howe seems like the strongest competition for Ovechkin (even though I always thought Bobby Hull was a better goal-scorer than Howe), because it is not clear how much of strong non-peak seasons one has to have to compensate for a visible difference in peaks (it is a matter of taste, of course, but then also trying to beat Howe on longevity seems a lost cause).

Now, what do we do with Gretzky? If we take his lead margins as they are, he seems a bit better Howe with a shorter prime

Howe (60% adj): 87-63-58-50-35-34-31-28-19-18-16-13-11-10-10-5-2-0
Gretzky: 85-85-59-48-48-17-15-13-9

and then again, it is a matter of taste whether the fact that Ovechkin beats Gretzky by a lot on the tail end (starting with the 6th season) is enough to compensate for a better 3-year/5-year peak.

I compared lead margins in the higher-scoring era (1970-1996) with the modern (1997-2017) ones: 1st-over-10th they are 59% vs 44% (44/59=0.75), 2nd-over-10th they are 33% vs 30% (30/33=0.9). The reason for that is that the league was still 22 teams vs. 30 teams now, and that Soviet talent (and some Czech) was not in. The difference seems minor though, so let's adjust Gretzky's leads by multiplying them by 0.9 - it would be something, but nothing dramatic


Hull (60% adj): 65-56-55-48-42-38-34-28-19-13-12-9
Howe (60% adj): 87-63-58-50-35-34-31-28-19-18-16-13-11-10-10-5-2-0
Richard (60% adj): 70-60-52-48-46-44-35-24-23-21-10-9-8
Gretzky (90% adj): 77-76-53-43-43-16-13-12-8
Ovechkin: 63-61-52-52-50-44-43-30-15-6

Gretzky and Howe now seem comparable in the best five years (and then it is all Howe), Gretzky still clearly has the 3-year peak on Ovechkin, and then Ovechkin takes over.

To sum up, one can already make a case for Ovechkin being the best goal-scorer of all-time if one does not put too much weight on the 3-year peak and values consistency (that is, the ability to produce big, meaningful leads over #10 for almost a decade). My own impression from the analysis with the lead margins is that Ovechkin is really close to Richard and even Bobby Hull, but he still has not topped Howe (he will probably need two more season with 40-50% leads over #10 to tie Howe, one such season would probably be enough to pass Richard and maybe Bobby Hull). I would already rank Ovechkin over Gretzky as a goal-scorer, which is supported by my previous post with the count of goal-scoring titles and top3/top5/top10 finishes.

Some mentions of Bure, Selanne, Hull, and Bossy here, so I've used Zuluss' method to calculate the % leads for those players.

...

Below are the calculations for Pavel Bure, Mike Bossy, Mario Lemieux, and Phil Esposito. I've also included Teemu Selanne's results, considering his name is sometimes thrown into the same class as some of these other goal scorers.

Pre-1970 seasons have been adjusted at 60% as specified by Zuluss; 1970-71 to 1996-97 season have been adjusted at 90% as also specified.

Pavel Bure:

61-55-48-27-10

Teemu Selanne:

58-37-21-21-20

Mario Lemieux:

76-42-41-26-25-17-4-4-0

Mike Bossy:

65-38-29-29-25-23-23-8-8

Brett Hull:

82-60-54-22-10-0-0-0

Phil Esposito:

100-80-66-47-34-26-18-10-5

At face value, one can conclude from these numbers that Mike Bossy and Teemu Selanne have the shortest, smallest peaks of the group.

Zuluss states that 44% is the baseline for what would be considered an average goal-scoring lead over the 10th-placed scorer in each respective season.

Selanne and Bossy each have only one of those; Selanne's top-ranked season is not his 1992-93 season -- it is instead his 1997-98 season that is his best, according to these calculations. Selanne has the lowest peak, while Bossy has the biggest drop-off after one season despite playing on a dynasty team.

Brett Hull has three -- all of which were played alongside Adam Oates, who seems to have been the catalyst for his success.

Mario Lemieux has only one, although Zuluss' instructions here only account for end-of-year totals.

Pavel Bure has three, all of which were post-injury finishes (1997-98, 1999-00, 2000-01) on notoriously bad teams with virtually no help. His top-ranked season, the 1999-00 season, was tallied in 74 games played (a pace of 64 goals in 82 games). His second-highest ranked season is his 1997-98 season. All three of these seasons were in a lower-scoring period than Ovechkin's peak (1997-98: 2.64 GPG, 1999-00: 2.75 GPG, 2000-01: 2.76 GPG vs 2007-08: 2.78 GPG).

...

Phil Esposito has four, although these all took place during Bobby Orr's peak with the Boston Bruins -- as with Brett Hull, perhaps another case of a goal scorer capitalizing on the abilities of a high-end teammate.

There seems to be the notion that Bure is in a tier with Brett Hull, Teemu Selanne, and Mike Bossy -- that debate needs to be resolved before we move on the argument of where Bure places among the top-tier scorers (and it could only ever be an argument based on peak dominance). Even with Oates on his line, Brett Hull's second-and-third best seasons are not better than Bure's best based on these numbers; take Oates away and I'm not sure even two of those seasons stay above the 44% threshold. Selanne and Bossy are well below both in terms of the lack of dominant goal-scoring seasons that they had (just one each) and, with regards to Bossy especially, based on the talent that they played with.

We need to first be clear that Bure was a better goal scorer than Bossy, Selanne, and Brett Hull were.

I've decided to calculate the % leads for a few more highly-regarded goal scorers. All of the numbers have been adjusted accordingly based on era. Each number represents a Top 10 finish and the percentage lead over the 10th-placed goal scorer that season. Highlighted in green are those finishes that are above the 44% "above average" threshold. Here are their results:

Cam Neely:

20-12-8-3

Steve Yzerman:

37-34-12-7-6-4

Jarome Iginla:

41-26-25-24

Joe Sakic:

35-8-6-5-0

Guy Lafleur:

50-45-29-27-27-6

Jari Kurri:

49-43-26-10

Peter Bondra:

58-28-13-10-9-5

Kurri, even with Gretzky's help, only surpassed the 44% mark once, and has a rather low peak relative to the truly "elite" goal scorers.

We see that Joe Sakic, Jarome Iginla, and Steve Yzerman are in a lower tier compared to the others that have been discussed in this thread -- none of them break the 44% threshold.

Peter Bondra has the same peak in the same year as Teemu Selanne (52 goals in 1997-98), but an even larger drop-off than Selanne. He has just one season above the 44% mark.

Lafleur and Kurri have a very similar peak in terms of goal-scoring.

Cam Neely doesn't have much to show for his career; his 20% leading season is his 1989-90 season with Craig Janney as his center. His 12% lead is his 1990-91 season, before the Ulf Samuelsson incident.

Neely's 1993-94 season was cut short, but we can evaluate the number of goals he would have needed to score to reach certain % lead thresholds. The 10th-placed scorers that season scored 46 goals. To reach a 44% percentage lead, Neely would have needed to score 69 goals (for a 45% lead over 10th place). For a 50% lead, he would have needed to score 72 goals (51% lead). For a 60% percentage lead, Neely would have needed to score 77 goals that season (61%).

Neely was still quite a long way away from having an elite goal-scoring season in 1993-94.

Zuluss states that 44% is the baseline for what would be considered an average goal-scoring lead over the 10th-placed scorer in each respective season. I have highlighted those seasons in green. Listed are all Top 10 finishes; the numbers represent the % lead over the 10th-placed finisher in that year's goal-scoring race (for example: in 1992-93, Brett Hull had the 10th-placed finish with 54 goals; to calculate Teemu Selanne's percentage lead that season over 10th place, we calculate ((76 / 54) - 1) * 0.9 = 37%. Selanne led the 10th-place scorer by a difference of 37% that season).

Pre-1970 seasons receive an adjustment of *0.6 and seasons between 1970-71 and 1996-97 receive an adjustment of *0.9 during calculations. Below are the final results, post-adjustment, and in order of each player's most dominant to least dominant Top 10 goal-scoring finishes:

The quoted posts contain contextual information. Below are the results for players whose % leads have been calculated so far.

Bobby Hull: 65-56-55-48-42-38-34-28-19-13-12-9
Howe: 87-63-58-50-35-34-31-28-19-18-16-13-11-10-10-5-2-0
Richard: 70-60-52-48-46-44-35-24-23-21-10-9-8
Gretzky: 77-76-53-43-43-16-13-12-8
Marcel Dionne: 43-43-19-16-15-11-0-0-0
Ovechkin: 63-61-52-52-50-44-43-30-15-6

Bure: 61-55-48-27-10
Selanne: 58-37-21-21-20
Lemieux: 76-42-41-26-25-17-4-4-0
Bossy: 65-38-29-29-25-23-23-8-8
Brett Hull: 82-60-54-22-10-0-0-0
Geoffrion: 55-44-23-15-15-13-6-0

Esposito: 100-80-66-47-34-26-18-10-5
Neely: 20-12-8-3
Yzerman: 37-34-12-7-6-4
Iginla: 41-26-25-24
Sakic: 35-8-6-5-0
Charlie Conacher: 48-47-47-33-26

Lafleur: 50-45-29-27-27-6
Kurri: 49-43-26-10
Bondra: 58-28-13-10-9-5
Stamkos: 67-46-38-32-30-9
Jagr: 35-30-29-21-17-13-11-6
Kane: 39-10-0

We can determine the degree to which players dominated their field in the goal-scoring race using this method. We can also more accurately estimate the degree to which a player would have needed to dominate a field to reach a certain threshold.

For example: Cam Neely's 1993-94 season was cut short, but we can evaluate the number of goals he would have needed to score to reach certain % lead thresholds that year. The 10th-placed scorers that season scored 46 goals. To reach a 44% percentage lead -- the baseline for an above-average goal-scoring season by a leading scorer --, Neely would have needed to score 69 goals (for a 45% lead over 10th place). For a 50% lead, he would have needed to score 72 goals (51% lead). For a 60% percentage lead, Neely would have needed to score 77 goals that season (61%).

The 1993-94 equivalent of Ovechkin's 2007-08 65-goal campaign would have been a 78-goal season (63% lead).

 

[Sentinel]

I am going to make another case for Bure.

1. He was a better "big game player" than Ovechkin. As in "no contest."
2. Bure would, in fact, benefit from playing with someone like Backstrom or like Housley. He just learned to rely on himself only, because of the teams he was on. The only time he played with an elite center was his first year in Vancouver (Larionov). Messier was way past his prime, and Bure was often injured.
3. People don't seem to realize that Bure actually could be versatile if he wanted. His short closing stint with NYR showed him being a great two-way player.

Intensity-wise, at their peaks, the two players are actually close. But Bure was far, far smarter than Ovechkin, who is far, far more powerful.

So when talking "peak only," I think it's VERY close.

 

[Laineux]

The only way this is close is if you remove Ovechkin's best three years from the picture completely and you could make an argument that Ovechkin's resume is still more impressive than Bure's.

Total points are more dependent on the overall ability of the team than any individual player.

There is no basis for this statement at all. And if this were true, then some of Teemu's 98-99 season in Ducks would have to be considered better or in par with 85-86 215 point Gretzky, being a better goal scorer and scoring as high of a % of team points.

Let's look at their peak season margins over the #10 in points and points per game.

Bure 97-98
14% in points
3% in p/gp

Bure 99-00

19% in points
21% in p/gp

Ovechkin 07-08
29% in points
19% in p/gp

Ovechkin 08-09
25% in points
24% in p/gp

Ovechkin 09-10
27% in points
34% in p/gp

While one can definitely argue their goal scoring peaks were comparable, Ovechkin blows Bure completely out of water when you start considering overall offensive impact. In fact Ovechkin has multiple seasons outside of 07-10 that are better than anything Bure did aside from 99-00.

 

[canucks4ever]

I've never heard anyone argue that Bure peaked higher than his peers Jagr, Sakic, Forsberg, Lindros or even Fedorov. Yet, people on here are going to make a case that his peak is above Ovechkin's?