Owen Sound Attack 2018 Offseason Thread

[HLLYWD99]

Suzuki and Gadjovich both -3 and Syzpula -4, Sad.

 

[Fischhaber]

Watched Julian Sime of North Bay live a few times this year, including tonight. I think that he could greatly improve the Attack at a reasonable cost, considering NB also has Propp.

 

[AttackSound]

As the team inches closer to the Xmas break there are certainly some big question that the team as a whole will have to ask themselves before the trade deadline.

1. When dose DD accept the simple fact that sooner then later the team will eventually have to be blown up and start from the beginning again like in '07/08.

2.At what point dose DD start to accept that maybe his time in this league has ran it's course and that for the team to grow and develop forward that it's time for him to step down as GM.

3.If the team has finally came back down to earth after 2 very successful cycles that happened over a span of nearly a decade under the manager its time to accept the ever hard pill of a rebuild year and build for 2 years from now by getting younger and and developing the team forward in hopes of peaking in the 2019/20 season.

Having said those very key points to bounce around us fans for the time being for what is to remain of 2017/18.

I don't believe cutting Gill loose after 1 season will help propel the team forward in hopes of a better outcome I do believe he can turn this team around but it's safe to say that overlaying coach Gill on Coach McGill's club has resulted in little progress forward in this season but more likely in 2 seasons from now when he has his type of team in place and has instilled the expectations in the whole dressing room from the senior players down and then we the fans will see what coach Gill is truly worth having behind the bench.

However I do believe that putting Gill in the hot seat this year right out of the starting gate was something that we the fans along with DD have to admit was a ridiculous impossible expectation as well as postition to put the coach in off the hop

 

[Noofgoof]

over on Electric Ice a poster made a good post about Owen Sound and the goaltending problem so I copied it here sp you can all see it..

Here is what Chlwatcher said the other day:

I took a bit of time to go through each game this season and here is what I found (feel free to check for yourself and correct any error you may find)

Let's say the Attack have goaltending running at .900.... Nothing special, but consistent and average or better....just for the purpose of comparing results based on a different save percentage.

Based on a .900 save percentage and with absolutely no change to offense (which is a ridiculous notion, but nevertheless...) the Attack season would be different in the following ways:

30 pts would be 46 points. 4 points in front of the Sting and 4 points behind the Soo with a game in hand and head to head still to play. This is right about where everyone expected them to be.

110 goals against would be 76 goals against. The best in the league, as expected.

The team has been out shot just 3 times....twice, marginally by London, and once, marginally by Kitchener...and this is generally indicative of the play on the ice.

Now let's add some realism to this fantasy. A vastly improved defense creates a vastly improved offense, particularly in the case of the Attack....or any high tempo offensive machine (and that they are).

The rest of the problems the Attack have are minor issues by comparison, easily fixed, and do not stand in the way of success.

Now, if they had a goalie with a .905, or .910, or .915, etc....the picture continues to darken for every other team and continues to brighten for the Attack. Records could be set with just that change made. This is not a year to throw away. Anyone who thinks that has rocks in their head.

Numbers.....it's right in the numbers.

Now go and find a goaltender with some experience.

 

[Pond Hockey]

over on Electric Ice a poster made a good post about Owen Sound and the goaltending problem so I copied it here sp you can all see it..

Here is what Chlwatcher said the other day:

I took a bit of time to go through each game this season and here is what I found (feel free to check for yourself and correct any error you may find)

Let's say the Attack have goaltending running at .900.... Nothing special, but consistent and average or better....just for the purpose of comparing results based on a different save percentage.

Based on a .900 save percentage and with absolutely no change to offense (which is a ridiculous notion, but nevertheless...) the Attack season would be different in the following ways:

30 pts would be 46 points. 4 points in front of the Sting and 4 points behind the Soo with a game in hand and head to head still to play. This is right about where everyone expected them to be.

110 goals against would be 76 goals against. The best in the league, as expected.

The team has been out shot just 3 times....twice, marginally by London, and once, marginally by Kitchener...and this is generally indicative of the play on the ice.

Now let's add some realism to this fantasy. A vastly improved defense creates a vastly improved offense, particularly in the case of the Attack....or any high tempo offensive machine (and that they are).

The rest of the problems the Attack have are minor issues by comparison, easily fixed, and do not stand in the way of success.

Now, if they had a goalie with a .905, or .910, or .915, etc....the picture continues to darken for every other team and continues to brighten for the Attack. Records could be set with just that change made. This is not a year to throw away. Anyone who thinks that has rocks in their head.

Numbers.....it's right in the numbers.

Now go and find a goaltender with some experience.

Of course this is just my own opinion, but the problem with making these types of decisions based solely on numbers is that your focus gets too narrow on smaller things (i.e., the numbers) and you run the risk of not seeing the bigger picture (e.g., the way the team is trending).

The one thing you can say about our goaltending so far this year is that is has been consistent. Look at the stats:

Bowman = 15 GP / 3.75 GAA / .866 %
Guzda = 13 GP / 3.81 GAA / .867 %
Daniels = 4 GP / 4.17 GAA / .829 %

Bowman and Guzda have essentially identical numbers. Daniels’s numbers are a bit worse, but he’s only played 4 games (and I think only 2 of those games were starts) which IMO isn’t enough to really have a big effect on the team’s overall trending pattern; his sample size is too small.

Bowman played the vast majority of games from the start of the season until the Windsor/Michigan road trip starting on Nov. 16, at which time Guzda was given the reins in net (Guzda started all 3 games on that road trip and Bowman left the team when they got back to OS).

So the team has had the same goaltending performance all season long, beginning with Bowman and continuing now with Guzda.

Now, let’s look at the team’s overall performance so far this season (i.e. , wins and losses).

The team did play very well through the first 9 gam3s of the season. Record was 6-1-0-2 over those 9 games. Team earned 14 out of a possible 18 points. Team was sitting second in the division behind Kitchener, but with games in hand which would have afforded them enough points to leapfrog Kitchener into first place (Kitchener played a lot of games right out of the gate). Does anyone remember how utterly dominant the offense was during these games? Team put up 9 against Windsor (although on the backup goalie) and 12 against Oshawa. The boys were scoring at will; it seemed like every other rush led to a scoring chance. The team looked like a continuation of last year’s team, more or less.

Then, starting with the Oct. 21/22 road trip to Erie, the team was basically a .500 team, playing “win 1, lose 1, win 2, lose 2” type of hockey. It was over this stretch that Bowman left the team and Guzda took over. The Bowman/Guzda goaltending performance wasn’t any worse during this stretch than it was during the first 9 games when the team was winning. What happened is that the offense cooled off with the entire secondary scoring almost completely drying up (except for Dudas of course). So what happened? Did the forward group get together and make a pact with each other that they were going to stop scoring? Not likely. What happened is that other teams took note of the team’s explosive offense and made changes to contain it. Look at the team’s play. No more scoring chances every other rush. Teams are containing the forward group, limiting the number of quality scoring chances, and keeping the forwards to the perimeter. We outshoot our opponents almost every game, but the vast majority of those shots are low-percentage shots from far out or at bad angles (i.e., Friend’s goal last night...that was a bad goal, Guelph I’m sure would love to have it back and the game should not have been as close as it was). Meanwhile, the coaching staff blames the poor play on “bad discipline”. Well, has anyone checked other team’s PIM’s? Sarnia, Barrie, and Niagara all have more penalty minutes than the Attack, and it doesn’t seem to be impacting those team’s performances too much.

That brings us to the present. The “win 1, lose 1, win 2, lose 2” phase ended on Nov. 24 when the current 6-game losing streak began (all 6 loses coming against divisional opponents). Team has fallen from #4 in the conference to #7, with London hot on our heels at #8. Has the goaltending dropped off during this losing streak? Nope. Its been the same its been all year.

I’m not saying that an established, experienced #1 goalie won’t lead to more wins. I agree that the team would have more wins with better goaltending.

My point is that the bigger picture with this team is its gradually declining level of play (at least in terms of wins/loses) in spite of the consistent goaltending we’ve had all year. And I think this negative trending is more due to coaching than it is due to goaltending. And I am hesitant to agree with the flat assumption that a better goalie will automatically right the ship and turn things around. Remember that the team started off the year 6-1-0-2 with the same spotty goaltending that it's had during the current 6-game skid. Time to look and think outside the goaltening box when assessing the team's struggles.

 

[BrunoDaBear]

over on Electric Ice a poster made a good post about Owen Sound and the goaltending problem so I copied it here sp you can all see it..

Here is what Chlwatcher said the other day:

I took a bit of time to go through each game this season and here is what I found (feel free to check for yourself and correct any error you may find)

Let's say the Attack have goaltending running at .900.... Nothing special, but consistent and average or better....just for the purpose of comparing results based on a different save percentage.

Based on a .900 save percentage and with absolutely no change to offense (which is a ridiculous notion, but nevertheless...) the Attack season would be different in the following ways:

30 pts would be 46 points. 4 points in front of the Sting and 4 points behind the Soo with a game in hand and head to head still to play. This is right about where everyone expected them to be.

110 goals against would be 76 goals against. The best in the league, as expected.

The team has been out shot just 3 times....twice, marginally by London, and once, marginally by Kitchener...and this is generally indicative of the play on the ice.

Now let's add some realism to this fantasy. A vastly improved defense creates a vastly improved offense, particularly in the case of the Attack....or any high tempo offensive machine (and that they are).

The rest of the problems the Attack have are minor issues by comparison, easily fixed, and do not stand in the way of success.

Now, if they had a goalie with a .905, or .910, or .915, etc....the picture continues to darken for every other team and continues to brighten for the Attack. Records could be set with just that change made. This is not a year to throw away. Anyone who thinks that has rocks in their head.

Numbers.....it's right in the numbers.

Now go and find a goaltender with some experience.

Remember back in January 2011 when CHLwatcher went on his rant about how coach Reeds was garbage and should be fired. Saying that the team should trade Joey and Wilson and load up for 2012. Also in that rant he said that if the attack somehow turn the ship around, he'd never post on electric ice again. Well, the attack won it all and should've won the Mem Cup. Take what CHLwatcher says with a grain of salt.

 

[OHL insideout]

As much as I don't want to say this I will anyway. I think if this team cannot find a #1 goaltender real soon, they may as well start the "sell off".
I am one that does actually think that if this team did have a top goaltender that was brought in early into this season this team would not be where they are now. Yes DD tried to replace the loss of MN but early on we all saw that things were not going in the right direction and another change was needed. Without bringing in a bonified, experienced #1 to play most games and to groom Guzda this team might just be headed in the direction of "selling off".
I'm listing a couple of older players that the Attack may attempt to deal, that would bring in the mightiest returns if this is the case.
The most valued player on this team is no doubt Jonah Gadjovich. What would the return be if he was ever dealt to a championship seeking team? I honestly think that JG would be the most valued player in the league if he was made available for trade by DD. He is a player IMO that WOULD put a championship caliber team over the top in a quest for the title. It is an under statement that this guy really does "do it all"!!
I've read on other threads what people think the trade value for certain players are, so I am wondering what thoughts are for the trade value of the "Man-Child"...
Another player of value if this team decides to "sell off" would be the captain Jacob Friend. There might be a limited number of top teams with an OA spot still open but getting a hard nosed, tough as nails, leader like JF on the blueline would surely solidify a few teams back end leading into the home stretch towards a championship.
Looking forward to reading what other posters think...

 

[Millpond]

Suzuki and Gadjovich both -3 and Syzpula -4, Sad.

I don' think I'd point fingers at 21 or 37 for last night' game.

One coming off a broken hand the other a family loss. They'e been our steadies performers.

 

[OSMike]

I don' think I'd point fingers at 21 or 37 for last night' game.

One coming off a broken hand the other a family loss. They'e been our steadies performers.

Ah that was Gadjovich's upper body injury too?

 

[HRWEGO19]

As for the WJC I think we're all forgetting that Sushko will also be missing as well as Suzuki and Gaj

 

[Millpond]

Gadjo left the game tonight, hope nothing serious.

 

[Pond Hockey]

Gadjo left the game tonight, hope nothing serious.

Methinks it's precautionary. I saw him with the boys at the team autograph session after the game. He didn't look injured or anything.

 

[Pond Hockey]

Well the 6-game skid is over. Team still has some work to do. Another 3rd period collapse (I've lost track of the number now) blows the 4-1 lead. But credit the boys for not giving up. They pressed hard when the game was tied and found the back of the net to retake the lead and kill Flint's momentum. Great resilience on their part. It looked like they really wanted that win and they got it.

Great effort from the secondary scoring group. Sushko (PP), Dudas (PP), Groulx and Struthers all with goals. Struthers with 5 points in the last 3 games, he's heating up at the right time with Gadj and Suzuki away now for the next while. Team will need a couple more forwards to step and contribute like that during this time. Opportunity is there for the taking...who wants it most??

Hopefully the team can build on the win and put up some more W's before Christmas.

 

[OHLFan90]

Well the 6-game skid is over. Team still has some work to do. Another 3rd period collapse (I've lost track of the number now) blows the 4-1 lead. But credit the boys for not giving up. They pressed hard when the game was tied and found the back of the net to retake the lead and kill Flint's momentum. Great resilience on their part. It looked like they really wanted that win and they got it.

Great effort from the secondary scoring group. Sushko (PP), Dudas (PP), Groulx and Struthers all with goals. Struthers with 5 points in the last 3 games, he's heating up at the right time with Gadj and Suzuki away now for the next while. Team will need a couple more forwards to step and contribute like that during this time. Opportunity is there for the taking...who wants it most??

Hopefully the team can build on the win and put up some more W's before Christmas.

We are really going to see what this team is over the next few weeks. Especially if both Gadj, Zuke make team Canada and Maxsim makes Bel.

We already know what the glaring holes are. Goaltending, secondary scoring.

But in order to win, multiple players are going to have to step up and score.

If that happens and continues when these guys get back from the WJHC, then essentially it solves one problem. However, if this team goes on another 4-6 game slide, then its time to sell. A goaltender is going to cost heavily but at this point trying to add a scoring depth is going to cost as well. And i'm uncomfortable giving up all those assets if we still can't put in a consistent effort because no one is beating the Soo at this point.

 

[OSMike]

Taking stock of this year I think I was guilty of believing the hype around this team. In reality last year's team was the team to make the run, and run they did, but in a stacked conference. They made it to the conference finals, losing to the eventual OHL champ. (Sidebar: IMO the OHL championship is the greater prize over the Mem cup). Hindsight maybe DD could have made another move but the team really came together at/around the deadline.

There have been lots of calls on the coach and GM for issues this year but again, taking stock, DD took a chance on Bowman, it didn't work out. He tried to get other goaltending help at the start of the season when prices were reasonable and couldn't. Gill is working with what he has, he's no McGill but I like him better than Ireland..

The sportsnet article also highlights what I think has to happen in our market, consistently good teams, that's what's needed to survive. Honestly if DD were to leave and a new GM with the "cycle" mentalitiy were brought in, we maybe in trouble years down the road as the ownership group ages.

It's just an unfortunate set of circumstances revolving around top end goaltending availability that has us where we are.

If the team slides and has a poor run when/if Gadjovich, Suzuki, Sushko are gone then I would sell Gadjovich and ride Guzda. It's only going to make us better next year.

 

[Pond Hockey]

We already know what the glaring holes are. Goaltending, secondary scoring.

Yep, agreed that those are the team's two biggest struggles. On the same page there. I just see the second one a bit differently.

In my view the biggest of those two problems is the secondary scoring problem---and I think the secondary scoring problem is fundamentally related to coaching.

Secondary scoring was fine the first 9 games of the season when the team went 6-1-0-2. Depth scorers were scoring no problem. I've previously posted how a core group of guys including Sushko, Lazer, and Struthers got off to hot starts and then all went stone cold at the same time (right around that 9 game mark, more or less) and stayed cold for a long time. That can't be a fluke; we're not talking about 1 or 2 players going cold. What happened is that teams took notice of those 9 (vs. Windsor) and 12 (vs. Oshawa) goal games and realized they have to play the Attack a certain way to avoid embarrassment. And the team has had no discernible response to that. Quality scoring chances per game have gone down. More of the team's shots are coming from far out or closer in at bad angles. Forwards are being kept to the perimeter more of the time. The higher skill guys have been able to keep scoring (Suzuki, Hancock, Dudas), but the depth scorers have struggled collectively against other teams' adjustments. Just my opinion.

As for goaltending, yes I agree that a McNiven or DiPietro or Helvig in net would lead to more wins. But, hey, at least the goaltending this year has been consistent right from opening night. The goalies put up very similar numbers the first 9 games of the season (6-1-0-2 and 14 out of 18 points) as they did during the 6-game skid. The spotty goaltending has been there since game #1...but it didn't stop the team from starting out so strong. That's why I think the secondary scoring problem (or the coaching problem as I see it) is the bigger of the two problems.

Those who keep insisting that goaltending is the biggest problem need to explain how the team was able to go 6-1-0-2 to start the year with the same spotty goaltending that we've seen all year.

 

[INTENTIONALLYOFFSIDE]

It took the team 10 -15 games to lose confidence in their goaltenders. Can't put anything on Guzda, he is a young rookie and although he makes some great saves he lacks consistency.
Biggest distractor and moral killer is a goalie's body language after a goal.....unfortunately no one has explained that to a number of goalies in the league.

 

[Bear in the Woods]

Yep, agreed that those are the team's two biggest struggles. On the same page there. I just see the second one a bit differently.

In my view the biggest of those two problems is the secondary scoring problem---and I think the secondary scoring problem is fundamentally related to coaching.

Secondary scoring was fine the first 9 games of the season when the team went 6-1-0-2. Depth scorers were scoring no problem. I've previously posted how a core group of guys including Sushko, Lazer, and Struthers got off to hot starts and then all went stone cold at the same time (right around that 9 game mark, more or less) and stayed cold for a long time. That can't be a fluke; we're not talking about 1 or 2 players going cold. What happened is that teams took notice of those 9 (vs. Windsor) and 12 (vs. Oshawa) goal games and realized they have to play the Attack a certain way to avoid embarrassment. And the team has had no discernible response to that. Quality scoring chances per game have gone down. More of the team's shots are coming from far out or closer in at bad angles. Forwards are being kept to the perimeter more of the time. The higher skill guys have been able to keep scoring (Suzuki, Hancock, Dudas), but the depth scorers have struggled collectively against other teams' adjustments. Just my opinion.

As for goaltending, yes I agree that a McNiven or DiPietro or Helvig in net would lead to more wins. But, hey, at least the goaltending this year has been consistent right from opening night. The goalies put up very similar numbers the first 9 games of the season (6-1-0-2 and 14 out of 18 points) as they did during the 6-game skid. The spotty goaltending has been there since game #1...but it didn't stop the team from starting out so strong. That's why I think the secondary scoring problem (or the coaching problem as I see it) is the bigger of the two problems.

Those who keep insisting that goaltending is the biggest problem need to explain how the team was able to go 6-1-0-2 to start the year with the same spotty goaltending that we've seen all year.

The first 9 games we scored as follows:
3 goals Loss
4 goals Win
6 goals Win
6 goals Win
9 goals Win
1 goal Loss
5 goals Win
12 goals Win
4 goals Win

We need 4 to 6 goals to be sure of a win. A .900 goaltender would win us many more games where we score 3 goals or less.

The remainder of the games still proves the point:
4 goals Loss
3 goals Loss
5 goals Win
3 goals Win
4 goals Loss
5 goals Win
1 goal Loss
7 goals Win
0 goals Loss
6 goals Win
3 goals Loss
3 goals SOW
3 goals Loss
2 goals Loss
4 goals Loss
5 goals SOL
3 goals Loss
5 goals Win

We can score.....we just need to stop a few more.

 

[OHL insideout]

I think we can spin this debate any way we want, but the fact remains, if this team had an experienced, top notch goaltender (one that should have been in place to replace MN) with the strong returning core of forwards and defence that does exist - this team would not be in the current position it is in. PERIOD...
A strong goaltender wins close games by scores of 1-0, 2-1,3-2.
A strong goaltender wins shootouts.
A strong goaltender makes even a mediocre team look good by winning games that the team is out played and out shot in.
A strong goaltender makes all of the "easy" saves and makes a few spectacular saves along the way in each game.
A strong goaltender allows a team to take the odd "dumb" penalty because he can be that "best penalty killer" on the ice.
A strong, experienced goaltender can get "into the heads" of opposing shooters.
A strong goaltender exudes that confident aura around him that breeds success throughout the dressing room and throughout the whole organization.
A strong goaltender gives the team in front of him the confidence to be more creative, take more chances in the offensive zone and not lay back in their own zone to allow the opposition to put more pressure against in close games.
These are a few reasons that I for one think the difference from where this team is to where this team could be is mainly in part by the inability to somewhat replace the All Star work that was witnessed last season by MN.

 

[Pond Hockey]

I think we can spin this debate any way we want, but the fact remains, if this team had an experienced, top notch goaltender (one that should have been in place to replace MN) with the strong returning core of forwards and defence that does exist - this team would not be in the current position it is in. PERIOD...
A strong goaltender wins close games by scores of 1-0, 2-1,3-2.
A strong goaltender wins shootouts.
A strong goaltender makes even a mediocre team look good by winning games that the team is out played and out shot in.
A strong goaltender makes all of the "easy" saves and makes a few spectacular saves along the way in each game.
A strong goaltender allows a team to take the odd "dumb" penalty because he can be that "best penalty killer" on the ice.
A strong, experienced goaltender can get "into the heads" of opposing shooters.
A strong goaltender exudes that confident aura around him that breeds success throughout the dressing room and throughout the whole organization.
A strong goaltender gives the team in front of him the confidence to be more creative, take more chances in the offensive zone and not lay back in their own zone to allow the opposition to put more pressure against in close games.
These are a few reasons that I for one think the difference from where this team is to where this team could be is mainly in part by the inability to somewhat replace the All Star work that was witnessed last season by MN.

If it were really that simple, don't you think DD would have pulled the trigger on a "strong" goalie by now, to salvage the Memorial Cup contending season??

Yes, goaltending is a need. We all know that. My point is simply that I don't think its the team's biggest need. And I think DD knows this, hence why he is going with Guzda to give him the experience. He's being responsible and not parting with valuable assets to get a goalie when deeper team issues remain (i.e., coaching, team obviously not gelling, secondary scoring drying up in mid-late October, team W-L record getting gradually worse as the season has gone on even though the goaltending has been consistently spotty since day 1). Sure, maybe a "strong" goalie wins the team a playoff series or two. But I think he knows those deeper issues will prevent the team from making a serious Memorial Cup run, hence he's decided to keep the assets, give Guzda the experience, and wait for another goalie "to fall out of a tree" if he gets lucky and that should happen.

If anyone who thinks otherwise can offer an answer to my question above, it would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks!

 

[OHL insideout]

I'm in no way saying it's "really that simple". I actually think DD was put in a very difficult position because of the departure of MN. Every team/GM in the league knew from the beginning of training camp that this team is a solid, experienced goaltender away from being a top team in the west/league (but still having other holes to fill as well). This is the reason that I think other GM's made the price for a top goaltender going to the Attack just too much for DD to part with.

 

[Millpond]

As bad as the results have been , the Attack are only 3 wins behind Windsor and DiPietro.

Would McNiven have had them or more?

Speaking of, Canadiens just loaned Mete to WJC, and possibly back to London.

I wonder if McNiven is in the conversation ?

 

[Wolfman Jack]

As bad as the results have been , the Attack are only 3 wins behind Windsor and DiPietro.

Would McNiven have had them or more?

Speaking of, Canadiens just loaned Mete to WJC, and possibly back to London.

I wonder if McNiven is in the conversation ?

This is huge for London. That will change things dramatically in the West!

WJ

 

[HRWEGO19]

Mete has already burnt a year of his ELC so I highly doubt MTL will send Mete back after WJC, he is better to learn with the men and beside Weber then go back to juniors and play with kids again

 

[INTENTIONALLYOFFSIDE]

Not sure if this is valid or not but why doesn't DD inquire about Connor Hicks? Does the soo still hold his rights and just sent him down to CCHL?