Tnuoc Alucard
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- Sep 23, 2015
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If you're trying to establish what Karlsson is worth on the open market, there are a few interesting contracts out the to look at.
Subban currently has the highest Dman contract in terms of Average salary at 9 mil. His deal was worth 13.04% of the cap at the time it was signed. He was re-signed by his team, so not on the open market
Weber currently has the highest outright salary for a Dman. He was signed before additional restrictions to contract length were put in place, and via a matched offer sheet, so with an open market setting the price, but with penalties associated (draft picks to be sent if not matched). He currently makes 12 mil this year, but with an average salary of 7.857. His deal was 13.10% of the cap at the time it was signed, but include 8 years out of the total 14 on the tail end designed to drop down the cap hit. Dropping off the last 4 years which were obvious cap circumvention years, you get an AAV of 10.4 mil, which would have been 17.33% of the cap at the time of signing. I don't think market value for a player equivalent to Weber signed to day would be the actual deal signed (taking into account inflation) or the hypothetical cap % of a deal had there been none of the cap circumventing years, so market value probably falls somewhere in the middle.
Now, it's worth pointing out that unlike Weber and Subban, Karlsson's name gets floated around with the absolute best players in the game; guys like Crosby and McDavid. Perhaps he's a not behind them, but the fact remains his value to a team likely comfortably exceeds that of either Weber or Subban at the time they signed their deals.
So;
Weber: 7.857 mi, 13.10% of the cap
Weber (sans cap circumventing years or CC yrs): 10.4 mil, 17.33%
Subban: 9 mil, 13.04% of the cap
Looking at what some of the top players in the league got:
McDavid: 12.5 mil, 16.67% of the cap
Kane/Toews: 10.5 mil, 15.22% of the cap
Kopitar: 10 mil, 13.70% of the cap
Ovechkin*: 9.538 mil, 16.82% of the cap
Malkin: 9.5 mil, 14.77% of the cap
Crosby**: 8.7 mil, 14.5% of the cap
Crosby (sans CC yrs): 10.6 mil, 17.66% of the cap
* Ovechkin's deal was signed before term restrictions, but did not attempt to circumvent the cap with extra years at a drastically reduced salary
** Like Weber, Crosby's deal was signed before term restrictions and includes cap circumventing years. It would have been ~17.66% of the cap without the final 3 years.
Based on the above contracts, if you buy into the concept that forwards get more than Dmen (I'd argue pts producers get more, and as a result, dmen typically get less, but since Karlsson produces like elite forwards, his market value won't be typical) my guess is that Karlsson's market value is probably around 14-16% of the cap. I think I'd equate Subban's contract to Kopitar's; I think both guys would garner similar levels of interest. Karlsson to me is clearly a tier above them in terms of league interest, more in the Malkin and Kane range, but maybe not the Ovechkin, McDavid, Crosby (adjusted for cap circumvention) range.
A deal at 14-16% of the cap would be 11.2 to 12.8 mil of an 80 mil cap or 10.92 to 12.48 of a 78 mil cap. So, while I don't know if I'd call 10.5-11 well below market value, I would say it's below the lower end of my expectation for market value. Basically, if we get Karlsson in that range, I'll consider it a home town discount. If we get him below 10, it's a veritable steal for the team.
Great analysis of this issue.
I've maintained that Ottawa will not go over an 11 Million AAV for Karlsson........... and clearly you've explained that between 10 Million and 11 Million is not "well below market value" as far as I'm concerned.
The Questions remaining, are will Ottawa actually go to 11 Million, if that's what it takes? And is EK65 looking for more, and willing to risk a trade to get it?