Confirmed Trade: [OTT/ARI] Jakob Chychrun for 2023 1st (top 5 protected), 2024 2nd (1st if OTT make '23 ECF), and 2026 2nd round pick

[Do Make Say Think]

BELIEVE

We are making the playoffs!

 

[Golden_Jet]

To play devil’s advocate he wasn’t privy to the knowledge that the Coyotes will tank their value on their players on account of finances.

He might be happy with the return after knowing that.

I’ve said it before but @rt wanted 1st round pick, Greig and Zaitsev for Chychrun.

That is damn close to 1st and two seconds.

He wanted more than that, unless that was near the end.

 

[Akrapovince]

That's not the return RT was saying he wanted in the threads I was reading.

and fair enough on the details with how awful Arizona finances are right now. but when you talk like you're the GM yourself and have absurd out to lunch trade values of players from your favorite team, expect to get roasted when the trade comes to fruition and the value isn't close to what you were wanting.

It's kind of what you're doing in another thread right now. Don't be so sure what you're team will or will not do, none of us know what will actually happen on this website.

Yup, to saying anything with any degree of certainty is a sure fire way to make you seem silly, and I’m of course guilty of that as well.

What were the proposals you were seeing?

2 first and Greig with Zaitsev I’m guessing?

 

[theunsunghero]

Exactly.


Nonsense.

Well it's true. The trade did make you look pretty silly. You come off as a know it all that knows little to nothing about trades and player values.

 

[rt]

Look at the last big Chychrun thread prior to the deadline. Every day for the last month, or more, I was saying I expected two picks in the 20s and one pick in the 50s. As in roughly pick 25 (x2) and pick 55 (x1). I also consistently said I’d take less personally than what I assumed the GM was willing to take, based on the information out there.

That was approaching this deadline. A year ago, it was higher. Which made sense prior to the injury. At various points I expected various returns. But most consistently THIS season, my expectation has been roughly pick 25 (x2) and pick 55 (x1).

At the time of this trade, Ottawa’s pick was 13th based on P%. They added two likely mid-2nds. Say picks 45(x2), roughly.

Last draft, the 11th overall cost the 27th, 34th, and 45th picks.

Additionally, I assumed AZ would have it eat a negative value contract. Zaitsev just went for a 2nd and a 4th. A year ago, it wouldn’t been much more expensive to dump him.

So if Ottawa’s pick is somewhere around 11th (say 13th or 14th) in a very good draft, I think that’s pretty solid value. Especially given some future 2nds are added in, and no added dumps.

Armstrong said he had an offer with two very late firsts he turned down for this one. Maybe Carolina? I think trading up from Carolina’s pick last year was too steep and he didn’t want to have to pay a price like that again. He felt Ottawa’s package gave him an opportunity to pick in a premium location without depleting his draft capital so severely.

He also stated that other GMs were trying to get him to take the kinds contracts he usually gets two 2nds for in the off-season. He wasn’t willing to give up that value just to make a deal. His budget rolls over, and he can use it to make his signature bad contracts for picks deals in a few months. So that budget space is key for him.

Two late firsts, a second and a dump that costs him an opportunity to cash in on summer 2nds is less appealing than this deal.

But it’s risky. Ottawa could stay hot and make the playoffs. The market for bad contracts could become less favorable (Chicago and others getting involved). And he could be left with a later pick, and only 3rds for dumps this summer. In which case, he took a much worse deal.

If Ottawa holds around this pick location, and he’s able to bring in a haul of dump picks this summer, than he’s done quite well, from a pure value perspective.

I can answer the question about whether I got more or less than I expected when I see where this pick lands and what can be done with the extra dump space.

Well it's true. The trade did make you look pretty silly. You come off as a know it all that knows little to nothing about trades and player values.

I think you’re struggling with pick values and dump values.

 

[Tetragrammaton]

Why didn't the Habs offer Florida's 2023 1st + Harris + 2023 2nd?

 

[rt]

Yup, to saying anything with any degree of certainty is a sure fire way to make you seem silly, and I’m of course guilty of that as well.

What were the proposals you were seeing?

2 first and Greig with Zaitsev I’m guessing?

Maybe a year ago. Not sure.

If the Ottawa pick is 13th that’s as good as Grieg.

A year ago Zaitsev had more negative value than the 2nd and 4th he cost to offload. Which obviously mitigates the gap significantly.

 

[theunsunghero]

Look at the last big Chychrun thread prior to the deadline. Every day for the last month, or more, I was saying I expected two picks in the 20s and one pick in the 50s. As in roughly pick 25 (x2) and pick 55 (x1). I also consistently said I’d take less personally than what I assumed the GM was willing to take, based on the information out there.

That was approaching this deadline. A year ago, it was higher. Which made sense prior to the injury. At various points I expected various returns. But most consistently THIS season, my expectation has been roughly pick 25 (x2) and pick 55 (x1).

At the time of this trade, Ottawa’s pick was 13th based on P%. They added two likely mid-2nds. Say picks 45(x2), roughly.

Last draft, the 11th overall cost the 27th, 34th, and 45th picks.

Additionally, I assumed AZ would have it eat a negative value contract. Zaitsev just went for a 2nd and a 4th. A year ago, it wouldn’t been much more expensive to dump him.

So if Ottawa’s pick is somewhere around 11th (say 13th or 14th) in a very good draft, I think that’s pretty solid value. Especially given some future 2nds are added in, and no added dumps.

Armstrong said he had an offer with two very late firsts he turned down for this one. Maybe Carolina? I think trading up from Carolina’s pick last year was too steep and he didn’t want to have to pay a price like that again. He felt Ottawa’s package gave him an opportunity to pick in a premium location without depleting his draft capital so severely.

He also stated that other GMs were trying to get him to take the kinds contracts he usually gets two 2nds for in the off-season. He wasn’t willing to give up that value just to make a deal. His budget rolls over, and he can use it to make his signature bad contracts for picks deals in a few months. So that budget space is key for him.

Two late firsts, a second and a dump that costs him an opportunity to cash in on summer 2nds is less appealing than this deal.

But it’s risky. Ottawa could stay hot and make the playoffs. The market for bad contracts could become less favorable (Chicago and others getting involved). And he could be left with a later pick, and only 3rds for dumps this summer. In which case, he took a much worse deal.

If Ottawa holds around this pick location, and he’s able to bring in a haul of dump picks this summer, than he’s done quite well, from a pure value perspective.

I can answer the question about whether I got more or less than I expected when I see where this pick lands and what can be done with the extra dump space.


I think you’re struggling with pick values and dump values.

I think you're struggling to comprehend anything hockey related. Just admit you're wrong. I think that's all some of the other people are alluding too.

 

[Akrapovince]

Maybe a year ago. Not sure.

If the Ottawa pick is 13th that’s as good as Grieg.

A year ago Zaitsev had more negative value than the 2nd and 4th he cost to offload. Which obviously mitigates the gap significantly.

Btw, whatever value you considered for moving up to pick #13 will be vaugely skewed.

This draft it will take more capital if a team were to trade from 28 to 13.

 

[rt]

I think you're struggling to comprehend anything hockey related. Just admit you're wrong. I think that's all some of the other people are alluding to.

If Ottawa makes the playoffs and BA is unable to convert unused budget into multiple 2nds for cap dumps, I’m wrong.

If the pick is early teens, and AZ picks up a lot of 2nds for a nice dump, I’m happy.

Nobody knows yet.

Rumor now is that LA offered two 1sts and Bjornfot. That’s exactly in the wheelhouse of what I was predicting leading up to the deadline. Two firsts and a 2nd in value (approximately). But LA needed to dump Quick. That theoretically costs AZ picks for dumps deals in the summer. Which is why they chose the Ottawa deal.

I can’t say yet whether a pair of LA 1sts and Bjornfot and a dump is better than the OTT 1st a pair of 2nds and no dump. We will see in the summer.

Btw, whatever value you considered for moving up to pick #13 will be vaugely skewed.

This draft it will take more capital if a team were to trade from 28 to 13.

Exactly. So pick 13 in this draft is likely MORE valuable than pick 11 in the last one. And that cost 27, 34, and 45.

 

[theunsunghero]

If Ottawa makes the playoffs and BA is unable to convert unused budget into multiple 2nds for cap dumps, I’m wrong.

If the pick is early teens, and AZ picks up a lot of 2nds for a nice dump, I’m happy.

Nobody knows yet.

Rumor now is that LA offered two 1sts and Bjornfot. That’s exactly in the wheelhouse of what I was predicting leading up to the deadline. Two firsts and a 2nd in value (approximately). But LA needed to dump Quick. That theoretically costs AZ picks for dumps deals in the summer. Which is why they chose the Ottawa deal.

I can’t say yet whether a pair of LA 1sts and Bjornfot and a dump is better than the OTT 1st a pair of 2nds and no dump. We will see in the summer.


Exactly. So pick 13 in this draft is likely MORE valuable than pick 11 in the last one. And that cost 27, 34, and 45.

Wait a second, you don't actually think Bjornfot is worth a 2nd do you? Here we go again.....

 

[rt]

Wait a second, you don't actually think Bjornfot is worth a 2nd do you? Here we go again.....

Yes.

 

[theunsunghero]

Yes.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Why didn't the Habs offer Florida's 2023 1st + Harris + 2023 2nd?

Harris has to get paid. They wanted $0 back.

 

[Tetragrammaton]

Harris has to get paid. They wanted $0 back.

Habs have better picks and more of them, not sure why they didn't aquire him.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Habs have better picks and more of them, not sure why they didn't aquire him.

You wanted the Habs to trade their 2023 first rounder for Chychrun?!?

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

take it for a grain of salt but Kevin Adams basically called out Armstrong for the Chychrun negotiations and said at the end of the day the ottawa deal was not a deal available to the sabres and not the best deal he was offered

those words might not be the correct ones but a reporter asked the question and he first refused to answer then started to answer then stopped and just said your words not mine

 

[swiftwin]

take it for a grain of salt but Kevin Adams basically called out Armstrong for the Chychrun negotiations and said at the end of the day the ottawa deal was not a deal available to the sabres and not the best deal he was offered

I believe Chychrun's agent said something similar on Ottawa radio, but that Armstrong did Chychrun a favor because he really wanted to go to Ottawa.

 

[rt]

take it for a grain of salt but Kevin Adams basically called out Armstrong for the Chychrun negotiations and said at the end of the day the ottawa deal was not a deal available to the sabres and not the best deal he was offered

I bet it’s partially true. I bet the conditions on the pick(s) and the salary back were different. Or Adams was calling a prospect equivalent that the Coyotes didn’t see as equivalent.

Or maybe it was close to a wash in AZ’s eyes so they sent Chychrun to his choice of location in Ottawa.

I believe Chychrun's agent said something similar on Ottawa radio, but that Armstrong did Chychrun a favor because he really wanted to go to Ottawa.

There ya go.

 

[Yatzhee]

Poor Coyotes fans, Buffalo GM Kevyn Adam's confirms the yotes took a lesser deal than what Buffalo was offering because Adam's wouldn't put 1 of Savoie or Kulich in the deal. Adam's straight out said Savoie and Kulich will not be moved. So the yotes excepted a lesser offer than what Buffalo was offering, up to the final hour before the trade with Ottawa was made.
Good for the Sabres, they have a GM with brass balls. Calling out Arizona at the deadline presser.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I believe Chychrun's agent said something similar on Ottawa radio, but that Armstrong did Chychrun a favor because he really wanted to go to Ottawa.

Did he really say that? I didn't listen to the interview but I didn't see that reported elsewhere.

 

[dire wolf]

Seems like malpractice by Armstrong. Rumor is that LAK offered more also.

 

[swiftwin]

Did he really say that? I didn't listen to the interview but I didn't see that reported elsewhere.

Here's the interview with Chychrun's agent.

Scott: Coyotes did not get the deal they wanted for Chychrun

NHL agent Andy Scott on Jakob Chychrun is excited to be coming to Ottawa, Coyotes initiated the the trade talks, how he and Chychrun found out and the Senators being the perfect landing spot for him.

www.tsn.ca

@12:40 He says the quid pro quo was that Chychrun's camp wanted to go somewhere that was further along in their rebuild, and that other teams had put up similar offers, or even slightly better offers than Ottawa's. He then ends the interview talking about how there's alot of buzz around the league about Ottawa, and how Ottawa is a hot destination.

My guess is that Buffalo put up a very similar offer to Ottawa's, but Chychrun's camp felt Ottawa was the better team or at least had a better future.

 

[dire wolf]

Here's the interview with Chychrun's agent.

Scott: Coyotes did not get the deal they wanted for Chychrun

NHL agent Andy Scott on Jakob Chychrun is excited to be coming to Ottawa, Coyotes initiated the the trade talks, how he and Chychrun found out and the Senators being the perfect landing spot for him.

www.tsn.ca

@12:40 He says the quid pro quo was that Chychrun's camp wanted to go somewhere that was further along in their rebuild, and that other teams had put up similar offers, or even slightly better offers than Ottawa's. He then ends the interview talking about how there's alot of buzz around the league about Ottawa, and how Ottawa is a hot destination.

My guess is that Buffalo put up a very similar offer to Ottawa's, but Chychrun's camp felt Ottawa was the better team or at least had a better future.

Seems dubious to me.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Here's the interview with Chychrun's agent.

Scott: Coyotes did not get the deal they wanted for Chychrun

NHL agent Andy Scott on Jakob Chychrun is excited to be coming to Ottawa, Coyotes initiated the the trade talks, how he and Chychrun found out and the Senators being the perfect landing spot for him.

www.tsn.ca

@12:40 He says the quid pro quo was that Chychrun's camp wanted to go somewhere that was further along in their rebuild, and that other teams had put up similar offers, or even slightly better offers than Ottawa's. He then ends the interview talking about how there's alot of buzz around the league about Ottawa, and how Ottawa is a hot destination.

My guess is that Buffalo put up a very similar offer to Ottawa's, but Chychrun's camp felt Ottawa was the better team or at least had a better future.

I cant listen right now but I thought the "better offers" referred to offers that had better assets but also included salary.

That said, I am sure there was some incentive to get the deal done with Ottawa for the reasons you state. Andy Scott is also an Ottawa boy, has spent probably 40 or his 45ish years here, and I can't help but think that he greased the wheels a bit, too.

Ultimately, however, I think the big issue was salary.