Ondrej Pavelec IV: A New Paveleconian Hope

[pucka lucka]

There was a fair amount of scepticism as well (supah and truck, among others), as well as the thought that it was too much, for too long, and quite a bit of payment for as yet unrealized potential.

We've seen how that turned out to date, unfortunately.

I'm glad to know I've still never been wrong.

 

[pucka lucka]

It always irritates the hell out of me when people use hindsight to argue why a deal was bad. It's so easy to see that when you have the luxury of seeing how everything happened.

How about those of us who don't require hindsight?

Ok, i'll stop.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

From that thread.

Every single team in the league is working closely within the confines of the "cap". Whether this is the league cap or the "team" cap (ie maximum salary said team will spend), all teams need to worry about this. The Jets need to be dollars conscience, we will not be spending big money right now, and a move like this (overpaying by ~2 million, IMO) can hurt the chances or improving the team elsewhere.

Not to mention that 5 years is a LONG, LONG time. ONE single lonely player remains from the 06-07 Thrashers (Jim Slater). That is a long time to lock into a 15-25 starter that has shown but flashes of being anything more. A lot can change in that time, and Pavelec does not step into the next level soon, he may never. Then we are overpaying for a goalie for 5 years, potentially handicapping us at least somewhat for 5 years.

This may not be the most likely of scenarios, but it is possible and I think that the term and money was too much from the comparables out there. He should have got 2years, 2 million per, IMO and proven he is an elite starter before getting this money, IMO. It's not a terrible contract, but I hate paying for potential and I hate long terms for non-proven players. Maybe we end up with a steal by years 4/5, but short term it is not good and long term it only MIGHT be good, so I don't like it.

Wish chevy had listened to me

 

[buggs]

From that thread.



Wish chevy had listened to me

 

[Jet]

I can't remember my reaction at the time for the life of me. Only thing that happens when I think of P****** is seething hate.

 

[Hollywood3]

I never posted in that [thread] but I will say this:

NEVER GIVE A YOUNG GOALTENDER A LONG-TERM DEAL.

Many have that one good year and then fall apart. Even if Hutch leads the team to the Stanley Cup I would say 3 year max.

 

[sully1410]

My biggest question when browsing through that thread was...why is Pavelec's name constantly written in red...

Weird.

And I wonder how red GJF's face is after reading his post lol.

 

[pucka lucka]

My biggest question when browsing through that thread was...why is Pavelec's name constantly written in red...

Weird.

And I wonder how red GJF's face is after reading his post lol.

Because the link has Pavelec highlighted.

 

[sully1410]

Because the link has Pavelec highlighted.

Oh...well...THAT was an anti climatic answer.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

i think you're incorrect.
better defensive systems, in theory, mean a decrease in quality scoring opportunities and a decrease in shots on net.

and a decrease in shots on net = a lower GAA which is why GAA is pretty much useless to evaluate a goalie. SV% on the other hand remains fairly constant and therefore is a valid measure of a goalie's performance. Goat-Lender's SV% marks him as the worst starter in the NHL, bar none.

[mod]

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think if the Contract was either 1 year shorter or at 3 aav probably be easier to swallow moving forward

The Potential most of us saw is still there but he never developed that consistency

For less money and shorter term wouldn't make any difference to me. What bothers me is that he is still playing.

 

[truck]

I try really hard to avoid this thread these days.

The fact that any projecting or forecasting that I do assumes the Winnipeg Jets will have to overcome some if the worst goaltending in the league makes me sad.

The fact that we are going to have ti go through another year of this makes me even sadder.

 

[garret9]

i think you're incorrect.
better defensive systems, in theory, mean a decrease in quality scoring opportunities and a decrease in shots on net.

It also means a decrease in non quality scoring opportunities...

What numbers peoples have discovered is that better systems tend to decrease both relatively equally, and because of this save percentage is predominately maintained.


There have been multiple different ways this has been looked at and proven:

1) looking at all goalies who have switched team's part way in the season, and then looking to see if the delta is larger than what you would expect just from sampling size (ie: chance)

2) looking at coaches who have switch team's part way in the season, and then looking to see if the delta is larger than what you would expect just from sampling size (ie: chance)

3) looking at a coach's career and how goalies tended to perform with and without the goaltender while making adjustments for aging curves

4) looking at the repeatability of % of shots are shot quality out of total shots

5) looking at the repeatability of shot against location as a talent for a defender

6) looking at the repeatability of on-ice sv% for a goaltender


I can show you links for all of these. They are almost all done by different people, but it all came up to the same answer. Teams and players over the course of a large sample (3k+ SA usually) have little to no effect on save percentage. They do on a micro sense, as **** happens, but over a macro sense you have to remember that **** flies both ways.



The last one is a really intriguing one for both Jets fans as it takes into consideration two controversial players: Pavelec and Byfuglien.

Many people blame Byfuglien for the low sv% he has experienced on the ice (when he has, although they do not praise him when he doesn't have this), but absolve Pavelec of the low sv% he has experienced.

Here's the thing though, when you look at every Thrasher/Jet defender who has played more than one season for the Jets, then take their relative sv% (on-ice minus off-ice) for once season, and then plot it against the next season.... you get a R2 of 0.006... Basically completely random dots.

So, let's think about this for a minute.
ALL defensemen WANT to stop high quality shots. So if a higher save percentage is something you want to obtain, why is it that no one is consistently better or worse at it???

 

[SensibleGuy]

Yeah it's good to hear in National MSM. Mike described his numbers as "Mediocre AT BEST", so it's still a little generous

Would be nice if the local media would start asking some questions of Chevy about Pavs. Like "what is there in Pavelec's play that leads you to believe he has the potential to be a solid starting goalie in the NHL?"

I think Hustler is about the only guy who really seems to get it. Lawless seemed to be coming around for a while but lately he's gone back to pumping the idea that the team defense is a problem and you "can't evaluate the goalie" yet.

Westwood gets it too, but he sorta doesn't really count, lol...

 

[Gm0ney]

Would be nice if the local media would start asking some questions of Chevy about Pavs. Like "what is there in Pavelec's play that leads you to believe he has the potential to be a solid starting goalie in the NHL?"

I think Hustler is about the only guy who really seems to get it. Lawless seemed to be coming around for a while but lately he's gone back to pumping the idea that the team defense is a problem and you "can't evaluate the goalie" yet.

Westwood gets it too, but he sorta doesn't really count, lol...

Have you heard Chevy talk? He'd just ramble on about processes and how Pavelec is "relatively young" and we're continuing to evaluate and patience and on and on and on.

Also, Chevy seems a little touchy about the Pav thing. 20 minutes of bafflegab at the season-end presser except for an emphatic "PAVS IS #1 GOALIE NEXT SEASON!" I don't know if Chevy's been that unequivocal since he said "I do" on his wedding day.

Anyway, I think asking a lot of questions about Pavelec will get you on Scott Brown's ****-list pretty quick. Since Lawless' only value is that he has a line to the organization, he's gotta play nice. He seemed to forget that for a bit in Sochi - he was saying stuff like "the evidence is piling up" after Pavs poor play in the Olympics...but he got back to Winnipeg and his tone softened a bit.

 

[pucka lucka]

Have you heard Chevy talk? He'd just ramble on about processes and how Pavelec is "relatively young" and we're continuing to evaluate and patience and on and on and on.

Also, Chevy seems a little touchy about the Pav thing. 20 minutes of bafflegab at the season-end presser except for an emphatic "PAVS IS #1 GOALIE NEXT SEASON!" I don't know if Chevy's been that unequivocal since he said "I do" on his wedding day.

Anyway, I think asking a lot of questions about Pavelec will get you on Scott Brown's ****-list pretty quick. Since Lawless' only value is that he has a line to the organization, he's gotta play nice. He seemed to forget that for a bit in Sochi - he was saying stuff like "the evidence is piling up" after Pavs poor play in the Olympics...but he got back to Winnipeg and his tone softened a bit.

Hah! my new favourite word.

 

[Guerzy]

There we go.

Tim Campbell ‏@FPTimCampbell 4m

They've been saying this but told in no uncertain terms #NHLJets won't use a buyout now, or likely ever. "Not doable for small-market team."

 

[YWGinYYZ]

There we go.

Throwing Walsh off the scent, until Frolik is signed.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Throwing Walsh off the scent, until Frolik is signed.

If I didn't want to , I'd have to

 

[cbcwpg]

Tim Campbell ‏@FPTimCampbell 4m

They've been saying this but told in no uncertain terms #NHLJets won't use a buyout now, or likely ever. "Not doable for small-market team."

Fair enough. If that's how TNSE wants to operate, then fine, but then explain to me Lucy....

What does being in a so called "small-market" have to do with it? A bad contract is a bad contract regardless of the city it is in. Is it feared somehow that buying out the worst starting goalie in the NHL will somehow affect the Jets ability to sign players in the future? Everyone in the league knows why we would be buying out Pavs if we did, so what's the deal.

Like I said, do business that way, but tell people why.

 

[White Out 403*]

our hockey team is run by fools. time to get used to it i suppose. this will be a non playoff team for years to come, and if this keeps up another 3 or 4 seasons i guarantee the sell outs will stop. shame on TNSE. what hot garbage. this one stinks all the way to calgary.

 

[pucka lucka]

There we go.

I'd love to have them explain that. Tampa is such a huge market.

 

[chaos4]

Four more sleeps until the window of opportunity closes.....
Four more sleeps until the Crown Royal Maple dulls the pain...

 

[AWSAA]

Tim Campbell ‏@FPTimCampbell 4m

They've been saying this but told in no uncertain terms #NHLJets won't use a buyout now, or likely ever. "Not doable for small-market team."

 

[White Out 403*]

^^ its a smoke screen. tnse and chevy will refuse to do any wrong with the pavelec signing. they signed a contract with a loser goaltender who was recently convicted of drinking and driving, covered it up, and then proceeded to be the worst goaltender in the league for 3 years in a row.

does chevy and tnse learn from this and try and move on? even save some money on the contract and admit they screwed up? nope. they double down and declare him the #1 next season and anchor us with this crap contract for several more years.

i think ill stay at home this year and not bother with a california trip to see this team piss away another year, or, at least wait and see if pavelec is relegated to most expensive backup in our history.