On average....

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Habsfan18, Jul 11, 2006.

  1. Habsfan18

    Habsfan18 Registered User

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    How many 1st and 2nd rounders actually become regular NHL players?

    What would you guess?

    Is there any official numbers?

    I would think maybe 10 or 15 players in the first 2 rounds actually become NHL regulars.
     
  2. Kimi

    Kimi Registered User

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  3. Hiishawk

    Hiishawk Registered User

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    If this was the case, over 12 years, only 120-180 players would become NHL regulars from this group. I guess we could allow another 120-180 from the later rounds. That makes 240-360, but there are 600 or so NHL positions.

    I believe the "becoming a regular" ratio for the top 60 is about 40-45%.
     
  4. Jaded-Fan

    Jaded-Fan Registered User

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    One of the HF writers posted a study that he did that had, to me anyways, some surprising results. Outside of the top five it was amazing to me how low the percentage was of first round picks who became stars. A larger percentage than I would have guessed did not even play in the NHL becoming total busts. It was eye-opening. Perhaps he can post some of those figures again.
     
  5. Bank Shot

    Bank Shot Registered User

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    There are around 100 players that went undrafted.

    So that's 500 positions.

    How many guys have been playing for greater then 12 years? 50-100?
     
  6. Hiishawk

    Hiishawk Registered User

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    12 years is higher than the average for a regular (remember, we are not talking about stars here). I think 12 years is very generous.

    Also, if it is true that there about 100 regulars who were not drafted at all (that may be so) then it would mean that the ratio of non-drafted players who made it to regular-dom would be almost equal to the original poster's estimate of top 60 draft picks who became regulars. Ergo- the non-drafted have a near equal ratio of becoming regulars to those of top 60 picks? Does anybody want to make that argument?
     
  7. West

    West Registered User

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    1st - Avg # of players in top 20 for draft = 1 ... 100%
    2-5 - Avg # of players in top 20 for draft = 2.5 ... 62.5%
    6-10 - Avg # of players in top 20 for draft = 2.5 ... 50%
    11-20 - Avg # of players in top 20 for draft = 3.25 ... 33%
    21-30 - Avg # of players in top 20 for draft = 2.5 ... 25%
    31-60 - Avg # of players in top 20 for draft = 2.25 ... 8%
    61-90 - Avg # of players in top 20 for draft = 2 ... 7%
    91+ - Avg # of players in top 20 for draft = 4 ... 2%

    I was looking at data from 95 to 98 drafts and here's a quick and dirty break down of where the top 20 picks came from followed by the average teams probablity of getting one in the given draft range.
     
  8. PecaFan

    PecaFan Registered User

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    Download the pdf file from http://ideas.repec.org/p/mcm/deptwp/2000-04.html

    It has some great charts, number of games played in the NHL vs draft position, points vs draft position, etc.

    Basically, the charts are 1/x graphs, and anything outside the top 20, 25 picks likely to give you not much of anything on average.
     

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