Oilers analytic/advanced stat thread

[Spawn]

Few thoughts:

1. His shooting % is shockingly low at 2.5%. Alot of the reason has to do with simply being unlucky. Its not the whole reason, but a low shooting % will sink offense for a season. Not really that considered as obviously hes still generating the chances and shots

2. To slightly contradict the first point. While he does have crap ton of shots, shots from D are just way lower danger chances. D that can move the puck around and get into closer slot areas get better average than D that just hammer the puck from the blueline. Klefbom moreso this yera has been firing a ton of pucks on net, but from the blueline area. Hes also alot more shoot first, whereas last year he was more of a puckmover. I think this has to do with coaching though, as in a preseason interview he said he talked with coaches and a goal was to get 250 shots this year. So Id have to think they wanted to set him up as a big time blueline shooter, vs as a nimble puck mover who also could shoot. We have some good forwards on this team, so maybe its better to move the puck to them for better chances

3. Other teams saw excel last year and gameplanned him big time. Aspects of his game could be figured out by the opposition. Itll be on him and the coaches to adjust for the future

The bold isn't remotely true.

Klefbom has had exactly one offensive play his entire NHL career. It's shoot first, shoot second, shoot third. Klefbom and "nimble puck mover" don't belong in the same sentence.


His lack of offensive diversity was as much a criticism last year. His shot just so happened to be effective last season where it's basically disappeared this year.

 

[space321]

It's disappeared this year because he's playing through an injury.

 

[Aceboogie]

The bold isn't remotely true.

Klefbom has had exactly one offensive play his entire NHL career. It's shoot first, shoot second, shoot third. Klefbom and "nimble puck mover" don't belong in the same sentence.


His lack of offensive diversity was as much a criticism last year. His shot just so happened to be effective last season where it's basically disappeared this year.

Agree to disagree. Hes no Karlsson, but when he is/was one of the better zone exit D in the league, you have to have some ability to move the puck. In the offensive zone hes an effiecient but not flashy puck manager. And last year he was used alot more to move in and out of coverage and got alot more goals from below the dots. This year hes been stationed mainly at the top of circles and hasnt moved much. Not sure if thats coaching or player decision. From my experise playing hockey, thats largely a coaching/system design

 

[LaGu]

Well he said quite clearly before the season started that he had been instructed to shoot much more this year. I think the quantity might have hurt the quality a bit but at the same time if he keeps it up at least he shoukd be getting better at it.

 

[Whiskey In the Jar]

Haven't watched too many games, but judging by the statistics Edmonton has been clearly a bit unlucky the first half of the regular season. It is often pointed out that 70 games is required in today's nhl before skill plays more a role than luck in points percentage of a team. Now, a bad start to a season or bad first half then takes a toll on team's spirit on fans become very critical naturally and this might then again affect team's play too. Powerplay % which luck plays a major role on, especially it looks like edmonton got a cold deck. I would expect Oilers to rise in standings second half of the regular season, without major injuries occuring.

 

[oXo Cube]

Haven't watched too many games, but judging by the statistics Edmonton has been clearly a bit unlucky the first half of the regular season. It is often pointed out that 70 games is required in today's nhl before skill plays more a role than luck in points percentage of a team. Now, a bad start to a season or bad first half then takes a toll on team's spirit on fans become very critical naturally and this might then again affect team's play too. Powerplay % which luck plays a major role on, especially it looks like edmonton got a cold deck. I would expect Oilers to rise in standings second half of the regular season, without major injuries occuring.

Unlucky is not the word I would use.

The statistics say the Oilers are an alright even strength team that has been caved in on special teams. While I agree with that sentiment, I think the roster and the coaches wear the goat horns for that, rather than just poor luck.

EDIT: Should mention that post Christmas break the Oilers have been just plain bad. Team gave up on the season.

 

[Spawn]

Agree to disagree. Hes no Karlsson, but when he is/was one of the better zone exit D in the league, you have to have some ability to move the puck. In the offensive zone hes an effiecient but not flashy puck manager. And last year he was used alot more to move in and out of coverage and got alot more goals from below the dots. This year hes been stationed mainly at the top of circles and hasnt moved much. Not sure if thats coaching or player decision. From my experise playing hockey, thats largely a coaching/system design

I hate to be the prick that finds their own posts from the past, but you're talking about the same things I talked about last year that were holding him back from being a legit offensive d-man in this league.

By assertive I mean he rarely ventures off the blue line. He shoots a lot, but it's almost always right from the blue line. You mention Burns, just watch how much he'll move down into the o-zone to try and get in a better shooting spot. Klefbom's only offensive play at the moment is the slapshot from the point.

That's fine. It's a hard shot and he's scored a lot of goals with it this year. But it's one of the things that is holding him back from putting up legit offensive numbers from the blue line. He's a one note player in the o-zone.

Problem for Klefbom right now is A) he's legitimately been terrible defensively, and B) the power on his shot has all but disappeared this season.

 

[Furious Nerd]

Apropos, given I’m currently engaged in producing a series of video tutorials on computational statistics using python, and will be incorporating data from the NHL API in said tutorials.

 

[Furious Nerd]

This Venn diagram published on KDnuggets.com shows that Data Science sits at the intersection of 3 areas of knowledge:

1. Mathematics and Statistics
2. Computer Science
3. Domain Specific Knowledge - the domain being "NHL hockey" in this case

So, knowledge possessed by players, coaches, and anybody else with substantive experience in the game is part of the science of hockey, in that it influences both software development, and traditional statistical modeling.

 

[McDNicks17]

This thread is for discussing advanced stats and analytics of the Oilers and other teams around the league.

It isn't the place to be arguing the validity or value of advanced stats.

If you aren't a fan of advanced stats/analytics, this is likely a thread you should avoid.

 

[LaGu]

Larsson Nurse had a monster of a game.

Larsson
19:54 EV TOI
CF 25 CA 14, OZS% 12.5...
On ice for 17 out of 28 shots on goal.

I still don't get how Larsson didn't have any shots on goal. I have not looked at it more than once but the Pulju goal was off a Larsson re-bound, was it not? And he also hit the crossbar earlier, right?

Nurse
16:27 EV TOI
CF 25 CA 9, OZS% 14.29.

 

[Furious Nerd]

The Toronto Maple Leafs posted an ad last summer for an "Analyst, Hockey Research & Development". The job is no longer available, but an archive of the posting can be found on indeed.com.

The relevant portion of the position regarding qualifications reads as follows:

RESPONSIBILITIES

The Analyst’s primary responsibility will be to extend, maintain, and support the use of TML’s data platform. Additionally, the Analyst will perform analysis, writing, research, data tracking, and other tasks relating to player evaluation, roster and cap management, game strategy, and other areas of hockey operations

• Designing, developing, and the use of new and existing tools, features, and capabilities of TML’s analytics platform, including:
  • Identifying data sources and ingesting them
  • Processing data into useful metrics and presentations of those metrics
  • Developing tools to enable others to find, view, and manipulate data
  • Ensuring the platform remains stable, up-to-date, and fast
• Analyzing data from various sources at various levels of hockey
• Collaborating on research projects
• Other hockey operations duties as assigned

REQUIREMENTS

• Python programming ability required; experience with Django framework is preferable
• Demonstrated experience working with sports data (i.e., scraping, organizing, analyzing, presenting) required, experience with hockey data preferred
• Undergraduate degree in quantitative field preferred (e.g. computer science, science/engineering, mathematics, etc.), or equivalent experience

• Excellent awareness of modern hockey statistics and analysis
• Excellent interpersonal and written communication skills
• Experience with data analysis and research, particularly in sports
• Must be able to work independently with a high degree of attention to detail
• Strong communication, organizational and interpersonal skills

The vast majority of these qualifications stem from the Computing/IT branch of analytics. Knowledge of Python, and its use in web-scraping, data munging and analysis, and web application development (using Django), is required.

Demonstrated computing knowledge and ability is necessary if you are interested in pursuing this as a career. Several of the developers who published hockey data analysis websites: war-on-ice.com, extraskater.com, and hockeyanalysis.com, have already been hired by NHL teams.

 

[Little Fury]

Larsson Nurse had a monster of a game.

Larsson
19:54 EV TOI
CF 25 CA 14, OZS% 12.5...
On ice for 17 out of 28 shots on goal.

I still don't get how Larsson didn't have any shots on goal. I have not looked at it more than once but the Pulju goal was off a Larsson re-bound, was it not? And he also hit the crossbar earlier, right?

Nurse
16:27 EV TOI
CF 25 CA 9, OZS% 14.29.

I think that shot on PJ's goal hit Tanev in front and of course shots off the iron don't count as SOG.

 

[LaGu]

I think that shot on PJ's goal hit Tanev in front and of course shots off the iron don't count as SOG.

The shot went off Pouliot and then hit the crossbar.

Anyhow, I don't see why the iron shouldn't count, it is literally part of the goal. Seeing that a shot touched by the keeper (even if it was/is outside of the goal) counts as a SOG. Not that important but still.

I guess all of his shots touched someone/thing and I am too lazy to find the other ones to double check.

Shouldn't these count in CF though? His iCF is also zero.

 

[Aceboogie]

I hate to be the prick that finds their own posts from the past, but you're talking about the same things I talked about last year that were holding him back from being a legit offensive d-man in this league.



Problem for Klefbom right now is A) he's legitimately been terrible defensively, and B) the power on his shot has all but disappeared this season.

The question still goes back to whether you view that as a coaching decision or player decision. A coach can, and often does, dictate where players must play in a system when on the ice. This is especially true for D and being allowed to engage in the offensive zone. So if he coach is saying " ok Oscar you play blueline to the top of circle in the offensive zone to prevent odd man rushes coming back, and let the forwards do the work in the O zone"- ill give some leeway to the player

Its interesting that you bring up Burns. I have noticed Burns was alot more active in the O zone than in years past. Hes always been active, but in the past 3 years hes been basically a 4th forward in the O zone. I do not think its a coincidence that he put up his two highest offensive seasons in those times. I watched a little bit of the Sharks during Tmacs time but not enough to confidently say Burns was more active post Tmac. But ive just personally noticed it in the times ive watched the Sharks. It would be an interesting thing to hear from a Sharks fan, whether Burns is more active in the O zone now. That might single that Tmac was more conservative in using his D in the O zone. I guess another point that would confirm that angle is that none of the current Oilers D are really active in the O zone. We dont have many true offensive D, but whatever offense they do have is not being used in the offensive zone. Sekera is probably the best example as he was used liberally in Carolina and was able to post a 44 point year. In Edmonton I love Sekera but hes never struck me as an significant offensive threat in the O zone during his time here.

 

[Zaddy]

Anyone know if there's a site where you can see a breakdown of advanced stats etc from individual games?

I'm mostly interested in finding who certain players matched up against the most on the opposing team in any given game, preferably in the current playoff games.

 

[Spawn]

Anyone know if there's a site where you can see a breakdown of advanced stats etc from individual games?

I'm mostly interested in finding who certain players matched up against the most on the opposing team in any given game, preferably in the current playoff games.

Natural Stat Trick

This will have what you’re looking for.

 

[Whiskey In the Jar]

Edmonton had superb stats all first half of 17/18 regular season, second half was ok'ish', not terrible by any means. Todd were criticized hard by the fans (as with any hockey club is the case) but I would have too kept him for next season. I ran the numbers and few things sticks out, one is indeed there might have been a good chance of a goalie problem last season, similar with carolina that might struggle with a goalie problem. So at least that spot is somewhat taken care of now with a new hire. We'll see.