OHL poised to lose a TON of talent to USHL/BCHL, CHL is sweating bullets.

WarriorofTime

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Jul 3, 2010
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There was a bit of a historical bias that college hockey was for players that "couldn't crack" major juniors. For a while, you had to wait an extra year once you already played a season of college hockey to get drafted, making prospects generally a year older and thus less desirable (older age = lower ceiling so you gotta really wow to be seen as being as good as players a year younger to work against that impression). There also historically were not a ton of Americans. Going back even further, direct sponsorship of junior hockey made that the only feasible path towards the NHL.

As expansion and the WHA created a larger demand for hockey players, alternative paths were explored, and the grassroots hockey in certain parts of the USA took off, college hockey grew and more pro opportunities were created for NCAA hockey players. This in turn lead to more NHL opportunities. The Miracle of Ice also did a good bit to help College Hockey's reputation, a team of college kids (NHL prospects mind you, 13 went on to play in the NHL, five over 500 games and three over 1,000 games) went out and beat the Soviets, even in a flukey "miracle" fashion, that was a Soviet team that had proven themselves up to the task of playing competitively with Canadian NHL bests in various competition.

Even still, there definitely remained a time college guys had a bit of a negative reputation, NCAA has an automatic one game suspension for fighting and until recently, the ability to fight was seen as a major plus in prospect evaluation and necessity for all NHL lineups. There was the notion that they were "preppy college boys" that were less serious about hockey, which you can attribute to general resistance to change, anti-intellectualism and insecurity about being seen as "dumb jocks" for their own lack of formal secondary education.

Biggest change has probably been the overall growth in American Hockey, where NCAA has consistently been the "default" path. The change in the Draft rules to that college-bound players didn't have to wait a year plays a big role as well, as they are now judged on the same level and same time regardless of when they enter. As a wider proportion of NCAA players go pro, there becomes less and less concern that NCAA Hockey is an inferior path towards making the NHL. Historical patterns still result in a higher share of CHL players ending up in the NHL, but as waves of new NCAA Hockey players make the NHL and play at a high level, matching up the correlation and the causation becomes more difficult to attribute to anything particularly special going on in major junior development circles. Any player going NCAA Hockey doesn't have to worry that they won't be facing enough NHL talent. Some teams have double digit draft picks on their rosters.

Add to that, the obvious benefits of choosing your own path, and the fact that hockey players are now coming from more affluent backgrounds and the notion that education IS important and something many want regardless of whether they make the NHL or not. NCAA Hockey offers an opportunity to both earn a degree and remain on the NHL track simultaneously. With the education package, USports is becoming more of a dead-end for hockey, so it's often a choice at the end of the day, pursue pro hockey and end your educational journey (maybe you go back later in life which is more complicated) or end your pro hockey dreams and make an educational choice. An NCAA Hockey player doesn't really have to make that choice, they can work towards credits or finish it while playing in a pro hockey feeder. Those realistic about NHL futures will see that there are benefits to having lots of flexibility in terms of time of entering and leaving NCAA Hockey.

Some dinosaurs may still be stuck in the old way of thinking about the differences here, but for this generation of players, it's a whole different ballgame and it's unsurprising many very high-end kids on both sides of the North American border are seeing the appeal to the NCAA path.
 

Donnie740

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Let’s see how many 1st, 2nd or even 3rd round picks decide to choose the NCAA, BCJHL, USHL or some other second tier league instead of the OHL.

I expect not many - - if any - - will.
 
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WarriorofTime

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Let’s see how many 1st, 2nd or even 3rd round picks decide to choose the NCAA, BCJHL, USHL or some other second tier league instead of the OHL.

I expect not many - - if any - - will.
It hasn't been called the BCJHL in years. About the time as when your Pronger bluff anecdote had relevance. If you care to join us in the present, it's been called the BCHL for almost 30 years.
 

Bubbles

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As a fan of both (CHL/NCAA), this couldn't be further from the truth. Just YouTube Spittin Chiclets NCAA arena tours. The NoDak one will blow you away. Their weight room is legendary. Couple that with the fact I've been in a few OHL lockers rooms, the NCAA facilities are a tier ahead.

We've seen more Canadians go the non-CHL -> NCAA route over the past couple of years. I'm less bothered by it now than I was before. If I was in their shoes, would playing two seasons in a city like Chicago (USHL) then playing on campus the likes of Notre Dame, Michigan, BU/BC be better than spending 3-4 years in Sudbury, Prince George, Mississauga, etc..

Especially now that the end result - get drafted and chance at an NHL career is virtually the same. Similar exposure & opportunity while you make the calls. Doesn't sound terrible to me!

The Steel has facilities, coaching and development that rivals the best CHL/NCAA teams. That's why they've been able to recruit the best of the best in the last few years. Now that they're owned by Wirtz, they have even more money.
 
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WarriorofTime

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Ran some numbers for the 2023 Draft, first 3 rounds only. Looked at where players played/are playing/will play prior to entering the NHL/AHL. Even if a player was drafted from somewhere and then moved somewhere else the next year, I included where they moved. If they are playing in the USHL with a college commitment, they are listed as NCAA because that's their future. As I've stated, NCAA is very flexible, so you range from players like Fantilli that left after 2022-23 to players that haven't started and may not even start next year. There is one USHL player that doesn't have a college commitment, not sure if he is just mulling options or going to the CHL next year (he's an 05 so he can play another junior season).

CHL (OHL/QMJHL/WHL) (41 total):
Bedard
Danielson
Benson
Yager
Honzek
Barlow
Sale
Bonk
Molendyk
Musty
Ritchie
Cowan
Myatovic
Halttunen
Gauthier
Cristall
Gibson
Lind
Morin
Rehkopf
Bjarnason
Kumpulainen
Dvorak
Misiak
Akey
Dragicevic
Terrance
Bertucci
Sawchyn
Heidt
Pitre
Lardis
Burns
Brzustewicz
Ziemmer
Gardiner
Mackinnon
Price
Sidorov
Barkey
Karki

NCAA (past/present/future) (26 total):
Fantilli
Smith
Leonard
Willander
Wood
Moore
Stramel
Perreault
Nadeau
Brindley
Gajan
Augustine
Strbak
Cleveland
Nelson
Whitelaw
Fowler
Castagna
Svoboda
Suniev
Ludtke
Nehring
McCarthy
Fortescue
Pelosi
Perron

Interesting bit is through through the Perreault pick, CHL-NCAA were actually tied at 9 each and then CHL starts to separate.

Sweden (SHL/Allsvenskan/J20) (13 total):
Carlsson
Dvorsky
Sandin-Pellikka
Stenberg
Stenberg
Lindstein
Edstrom
Wahlberg
Nilsson
Fisker-Molgaard
Clara
Unger-Sorum
Nordh
Dower Nilsson

Russia (KHL/VHL/MHL) (7 total):
Simashev
Michkov
But
Gulyayev
Kantserov
Zavragin
Moroz

Finland (Liiga/Mestis/U20) (3 total):
Hameenaho
Kiiskinen
Pieniniemi

Switzerland (NLA/SLA/U20) (2 total):
Reinbacher
Felcman

(neither of those players are Swiss, heh)

USHL (not sure where future lies, typically NCAA feeder but European guys sometimes go USHL -> CHL) (1 total):
Pekarcik
 

WarriorofTime

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He played pro in Europe so it's unlikely he'll be able to play college.
I’m not exactly sure why a guy like Willander who played a couple of SHL games was eligible for the NCAA. I’m not even sure if the NCAA itself knows to be honest as it feels like they make things up as they go. You may be right about Pekarcik in which case I’d guess he plays CHL next year? Was he taken in import draft last year?
 

Corso

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Aug 13, 2018
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In the end this is all going to be moot....CHL players will become eligible. I know that those that want the status quo to remain are opposed to this but it's coming. Some have said for the 25-26 season, perhaps, perhaps not to long after.... but it is coming.....

Take a listen to Don Lucia's comments at the 51.40 mark...it also lays to rest the claim that this has no support among college coaches

 

Donnie740

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May 28, 2021
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In the end this is all going to be moot....CHL players will become eligible. I know that those that want the status quo to remain are opposed to this but it's coming. Some have said for the 25-26 season, perhaps, perhaps not to long after.... but it is coming.....

Take a listen to Don Lucia's comments at the 51.40 mark...it also lays to rest the claim that this has no support among college coaches


It’ll be completely irrelevant with ZERO impact on the CHL.

Let’s think it through logically - - why would a player suddenly decide to go play in the NCAA after having a successful first year in the CHL? And does anyone honestly think a player drafted by the NHL in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd round is going to go play in the NCAA for a year or two?

The only players this will impact are the ones not good enough to make it as a regular in the CHL or not good enough to advance beyond being a 4th line player.
 

S E P H

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I’ve been saying the OHL in particular but WHL as well needs a tender system yesterday. The best kids shouldn’t have to get drafted and go where they’re told. Where else in the world do we do that with 15 year old amateurs. The kids just happy to be on any team, that’s fine. But the teams should be allowed to have up to 2 tenders per year. If an organization is just a flat out better place to develop than others, the best and most in-demand kids in the region shouldn’t be hamstrung by a draft that forces them to go play for a mess.
The problem is that they have the drafts so teams like Prince George, Owen Sound, Moose Jaw, and Baie-Comeau don't become Chernobyl destinations that nobody ever wants to go to. If you have a lot of players deciding where they want to go play, which FTR I do not think is unfair, then I would think it would fold at least 20% of the CHL since these teams survive attracting fans with good talent and that talent comes from getting to keep rights to talented players. Now with that said, a lot of top-end talent in all three leagues, but most commonly in the OHL do threaten to go the NCAA route to get the place they want to go to; MacKinnon, Duchene, are some notable ones, but there are like three more I am completely forgetting about right now.
 

MuckOG

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It’ll be completely irrelevant with ZERO impact on the CHL.

Let’s think it through logically - - why would a player suddenly decide to go play in the NCAA after having a successful first year in the CHL? And does anyone honestly think a player drafted by the NHL in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd round is going to go play in the NCAA for a year or two?

The only players this will impact are the ones not good enough to make it as a regular in the CHL or not good enough to advance beyond being a 4th line player.

If you aren't good enough to make it in the CHL, there is no chance you would make a NCAA D1 team. Especially a top 20 program.

Charlie Coyle struggled in his two seasons at BU, so he decided to jump over to the CHL where his offensive production jumped up considerably. If the CHL is so superior to the NCAA, how do you explain this?
 

Bjindaho

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If you aren't good enough to make it in the CHL, there is no chance you would make a NCAA D1 team. Especially a top 20 program.

Charlie Coyle struggled in his two seasons at BU, so he decided to jump over to the CHL where his offensive production jumped up considerably. If the CHL is so superior to the NCAA, how do you explain this?
Different role.

He went to a juggernaut that played him as 2C.
 
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joestevens29

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It’ll be completely irrelevant with ZERO impact on the CHL.

Let’s think it through logically - - why would a player suddenly decide to go play in the NCAA after having a successful first year in the CHL? And does anyone honestly think a player drafted by the NHL in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd round is going to go play in the NCAA for a year or two?

The only players this will impact are the ones not good enough to make it as a regular in the CHL or not good enough to advance beyond being a 4th line player.
I don't know what you mean here. Draft picks from the 1st round have gone to the NCAA for years.
 
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landy92mack29

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If you aren't good enough to make it in the CHL, there is no chance you would make a NCAA D1 team. Especially a top 20 program.

Charlie Coyle struggled in his two seasons at BU, so he decided to jump over to the CHL where his offensive production jumped up considerably. If the CHL is so superior to the NCAA, how do you explain this?
no actually that's why quite a few Canadians decide to go the NCAA route because they see their hockey future as either depth CHLer who plays at maybe 17, then 18, 19. By OA year they aren't good enough for the 3 OA spots so they are back in Junior A vs playing Junior A at 17, 18, maybe 19 and off to NCAA at 19/20 playing until they're 24/25.
 

MuckOG

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no actually that's why quite a few Canadians decide to go the NCAA route because they see their hockey future as either depth CHLer who plays at maybe 17, then 18, 19. By OA year they aren't good enough for the 3 OA spots so they are back in Junior A vs playing Junior A at 17, 18, maybe 19 and off to NCAA at 19/20 playing until they're 24/25.

Is this why recently drafted players like Cale Makar, Owen Power, and Kent Johnson went the NCAA route, because they saw their futures as "depth CHLers"?
 

landy92mack29

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Is this why recently drafted players like Cale Makar, Owen Power, and Kent Johnson went the NCAA route, because they saw their futures as "depth CHLers"?
congrats on using the outliers try looking at the non nhl draft picks that make up the vast majority of players in NCAA
 

MuckOG

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congrats on using the outliers try looking at the non nhl draft picks that make up the vast majority of players in NCAA

The vast majority of CHL players are also non-NHL draft picks.

So, are you also of the opinion then, that the OHL is "far superior" to NCAA D1 in terms of "overall play"?

What do you think would happen if Boston College were to play the Memorial Cup champs in a 7 game series?
 

landy92mack29

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So, are you also of the opinion then, that the OHL is "far superior" to NCAA D1 in terms of "overall play"?

What do you think would happen if Boston College were to play the Memorial Cup champs in a 7 game series?
Overall play I'd say on average they're close but the talent on NCAA teams varies wildly. A BC, BU, Michigan or Denver would most likely beat the top CHL teams. Taking a step down from those few top teams that have most of the top NHL picks to say a Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc they'd have close games vs CHL teams. There's 60 NCAA teams though and over half don't have much for talent on the roster who'd get beat by CHL teams. The talent level in the CHL is better but the age advantage makes the NCAA tougher. The NCAA defenders always bring up the BCs, BUs, Denvers but never bring up the Nebraska-Omahas, Canisus', Lindenwoods, Merrimacks, Mercyhursts, etc. So on average I'd say CHL teams are better but on the high end NCAA would be better and win vs any CHL team
 

MuckOG

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Overall play I'd say on average they're close but the talent on NCAA teams varies wildly. A BC, BU, Michigan or Denver would most likely beat the top CHL teams. Taking a step down from those few top teams that have most of the top NHL picks to say a Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc they'd have close games vs CHL teams. There's 60 NCAA teams though and over half don't have much for talent on the roster who'd get beat by CHL teams. The talent level in the CHL is better but the age advantage makes the NCAA tougher. The NCAA defenders always bring up the BCs, BUs, Denvers but never bring up the Nebraska-Omahas, Canisus', Lindenwoods, Merrimacks, Mercyhursts, etc. So on average I'd say CHL teams are better but on the high end NCAA would be better and win vs any CHL team

Minnesota, Michigan St, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, and Notre Dame would each beat the Memorial Cup champs in 4 or 5 games.

I would even to go as far as saying Quinnipiac or UMass-Amherst could probably do the same.

There are many reasons why some Canadian kids go the NCAA route. Doing so because they think they cant compete in the CHL isnt one of them.

Why do you believe that Celebrini chose the NCAA over the CHL?
 

landy92mack29

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Minnesota, Michigan St, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, and Notre Dame would each beat the Memorial Cup champs in 4 or 5 games.

I would even to go as far as saying Quinnipiac or UMass-Amherst could probably do the same.

There are many reasons why some Canadian kids go the NCAA route. Doing so because they think they cant compete in the CHL isnt one of them.

Why do you believe that Celebrini chose the NCAA over the CHL?
Bold I know 100% that isn't true from plenty of personal experience but okay.

They wouldn't win easily but alright. Celebrini lived in the states for a while and NCAA is pushed hard down there. Just like Bedard I think he'd have been better off playing in the WHL vs only 1 year of NCAA but it's his life so he can choose what he thinks best. Personally unless you spend 2 or more years in NCAA I think it's not smart but to each their own.
 

WarriorofTime

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no actually that's why quite a few Canadians decide to go the NCAA route because they see their hockey future as either depth CHLer who plays at maybe 17, then 18, 19. By OA year they aren't good enough for the 3 OA spots so they are back in Junior A vs playing Junior A at 17, 18, maybe 19 and off to NCAA at 19/20 playing until they're 24/25.
It's not the level of play they're at age 16 that really matters for purposes of comparison, but rather at age 19/point of entry into NCAA. Low level NCAA squads are filled with kids that play Tier 2 hockey, like NAHL or the breakaway ones like NCDC and EHL, can also throw in the crappy Junior A Canadian leagues that send a few players here and there into NCAA. For those, sure, yeah they obviously couldn't play in the CHL just like they couldn't make the USHL or a good BCHL team.

As you go up the ladder, it's much more ambiguous. There are the obvious cases of kids that would have (or were) high draft picks in their junior league, were always amongst the top kids in their region and very consciously opted for the NCAA path. Note calling them "the outliers" is a bit unreasonable as it assumes that only the top 5 picks clearly fall into this, when most CHL opting kids aren't draft picks either, so it's a pretty wide group that are also intentionally opting for NCAA Hockey despite always having been good enough.

Then you get the group that fall somewhere in between. Most players don't receive their college offers when they're 15/16. They often have to wait/earn it when they are 18/19. At that point, if they get an offer to a good program, they are not likely to be materially worse and are likely basically equal to kids that opted to go to CHL training camp at 16, went back to AAA, grinded out a bottom spot as a 17 year old and were sometimes in/sometimes out, rose a bit up the CHL depth chart the next few years, but were thrice undrafted players and end up in USports/out of hockey after a few years. They're probably pretty similar at that point of aging out of juniors/entry into college, with the difference being the NCAA guys that stay "on the path" and have a better shot at playing in the AHL with their degree in hand.

When you factor in that most of NCAA remains American (61.8 % in 2023-24), it's even murkier to make claims on who or how much "better" CHL players potentially are at the same age, because very few Americans are interested in playing in the CHL regardless of whether they are good enough. Most kids, if they don't make the USNDTP, stay with their prep school or whatever (obviously this is far from universal and there are big regional differences as well), supplement with juniors and go play in the USHL once they're done with school before hitting NCAA Hockey. A few kids (I would say Michigan kids most commonly) will go play Major Juniors, but it's becoming a rarer path these days.
 

MuckOG

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Bold I know 100% that isn't true from plenty of personal experience but okay.

They wouldn't win easily but alright. Celebrini lived in the states for a while and NCAA is pushed hard down there. Just like Bedard I think he'd have been better off playing in the WHL vs only 1 year of NCAA but it's his life so he can choose what he thinks best. Personally unless you spend 2 or more years in NCAA I think it's not smart but to each their own.

I wouldn't say NCAA is pushed any harder on Americans than the CHL is for Canadians. There is a cultural component to this, sure. Young hockey players in the States probably couldn't name 5 CHL teams if their life depended on it, but know all about college hockey. The reverse is probably true for young Canadian hockey players
 

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